Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[Raskolnikov]

Hey guys

[Raskolnikov]

So I haven't actually been following this, came in to inflate my winrate through that d1

Can I get a summary of what's going on atm?

[Raskolnikov]

Shannon dreamer can you summarise the titus wagon real quick?

[Raskolnikov]

Crazy theory I'm nurturing: Impoetic/Titus scum team. The main reason I am TRing both of them is a combination of the conversation they had with each other and relying on Transcend's gut reads. Problem is, day talk is on and that whole conversation could have been rehearsed in the scum PT. Rabbit judged Impoetic as town for how fast she responded, saying that if she was scum it would be really hard to fake those responses so fast. Also note that neither of them would vote for rb yesterday iirc (can't check on mobile atm)

Now this ... this is interesting.

It's also interesting that Titus is being deliberately obtuse, by pretending not to know that D7 was talking to her in 1534.

We can always come back to LUV if we need to, but I think we should push this for info. It's so out there it just might be true.

VOTE: Titus

Shannon started on titus based on a side conspiracy theory from kyoukyo which kyoukyo himself didn't believe in??

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: shannon

From what I've read I actually think shannon is the way to go.

Looking back I find her d1 stance very strange where she scumreads transcend and takes issue with the rb wagon but doesn't do much beyond throw shade until pressured into it. She gave weird caveats for not following through on her transcend scumread which she at the end was because she picked up the JK crumbs, but I feel as town you a) either move on to someone else then or b) push them anyways (i.e. if you scumread enough them it doesn't matter) if they're your only scumread; I don't understand the weird sort of limbo in which you have one that you have a reason not to touch and don't do anything else. On top of that I don't feel as though she's actually scumhunted this game (read votes on impo, transcend, especially titus) and (tonal, I know) I get an overly self-conscious feeling from her posts.

Going to go into the specifics and start pulling up the quotes.

[Raskolnikov]

Gonna cover every push by shannon so far (impoetic, transcend, titus, now gerry) and why the read progression doesn't make sense to me.

First

Impoetic

in 394

Uhhh yeah this read to me like someone is making a town read based on scum knowledge, and then trying to cover their ass.

OK VOTE: Impoetic for that explanation I quoted, which looked super fake

This is a hop onto the impoetic wagon putting it l-2, the context being impoetic called someone a townie and explained it as everyone is statistically more likely town than not.
Shannon's vote here is not terrible for the situation (the impoetic slip does look awkward) but not a statement that necessarily required much time or thought; we see the judgment but shannon doesn't go into detail or show she's thinking critically about the game rather than taking an easy way on the wagon. So far this read isn't a problem but follow the progression through.

Note: in retrospect the slip by impoetic, her accidentally referring/assuming rb as a townie actually reads town given the flip, it seems unlikely mafia would accidentally refer to their partner that way

404 reads kind of bullshit as a response to impoetic's defending of herself. The issue shannon has that "Having scum reads on townies is sub-optimal for town." and of wifom doesn't seem like actually trying to understand impoetics point of view but moreso just make her look bad for defending herself on the grounds it's not "optimal play" which is eeh.

How you come away from votes is important too (the tail end of read progression) and a lot of people don't look at that part. It's the later unvote; fluffyrabbit unvoted impoetic for the tone of her defense and asked shannon to do so as well. 414 Shannon agrees and said she sort of buys it but doesn't feel comfortable going all the way, and the subsequent unvote next day is without comment and when she was the last one left on that wagon.
2 things here, first something I love to look at is what I call reads-momentum. The more self-conscious scum tend to have 'heavy' reads in terms of momentum because they don't feel right quickly turning and want to look consistent, whereas town is more variable i.e. 399 fluffly (who looks town) feels better from the defense right away. On top of appearance, making a fast retraction of a read puts you in a position where you have to have a new read or direction to go to, which for scum is more of a hassle given they like to be on one thing at any given time. This doesn't apply to every scenario and is pretty weak as a tell tbh but I could see that being the case here. Second is positioning; shannon came to put the wagon at l-2 but holds off on judgement or committing until everyone leaves it for the unvote. Because she doesn't really follow-up the read it's indistinguishable as to her genuinely changing her mind or if she was waiting to see which way the wind blew; that if people stayed on the wagon she would've as well, but the wagon's complete collapse didn't give a choice. Although this is more suggestive than anything hard-and-fast.

Follow this read through and she has impoetic as town until d2 where after kyoukyo's titus-impoetic theory she votes on 1557

I am also wondering why Impoetic has never been shown as voting, in any of the vote counts. Care to explain that one please? I can see a vote on RB on 156 (called a joke), and a skim reveals no other votes.

A vote because impoetic isn't voting as she's lurking at the time. Again the concept of the vote isn't terrible, but when she had impoetic as lock for town d1 the worry on her specifically vs any other lurker (my slot for example) doesn't particularly follow. Finally impoetic doesn't show in her 1593 "want to lynch" pool and she then move votes again but I don't understand any of the progression regarding this. Impoetic doesn't post anything in between that vote and the pool and the next vote-change.

Overall given neither time she backed off she said anything substantive, and because her townread from the first time randomly disappeared I don't think it's a genuine read as opposed to voting for the sake of voting.

Transcend

I'll go into later but I can summarize; she scumread transcend but didn't pressured him one bit until the end of the day or asked any questions. Transcend himself asked shannon why she didn't do anything about her only scumread or vote him (817) to get more information but she didn't on the experience and apparently role-crumb basis. Beyond "bad vibes" and a problem with transcend's style changing there's no critical thought until her vote post 911 which finally gives a theory.

Titus

starts in 1539. Based on kyoukyos theory in 1531 shannon votes titus for being obtuse and "for info". Nothing wrong with pressure though this still isn't scumhunting, but follow this read through:
she unvotes titus inexplicably to go back to impoetic (1557) and in 1593 comments

D7 is probably my strongest town read and he wants Titus. LUV has supposedly cleared me, and he wants Titus. SSBM made that interesting point yesterday about the Impoetic/Rabbit(Titus) interactions. I think that's where today has got to go.

Which is essentially saying titus is good because other people say so and sheeping.
Finally 1611 we have the revote to l-2.

I'm going to go ahead and put Titus at L-2. I really want some proper responses from that slot and not just obtuse posts questioning minor points or pretending not to understand things.

VOTE: Titus

L-2

Now you have to go back and look at this as a whole to see why this is a problem.
Shannon originally wanted titus pushed for info but unvotes fast without asking anything. Then with the appeal that other people want titus so it's good she revotes because she wants proper responses from the slot.
Shannon herself never actually asked titus any questions. She didn't go into detail as to what info she wants; i.e. pressuring her. She votes her on the nebulous "more info" to sort of sheep, but doesn't have specifics she's interested in... what does shannon want here? Titus at this point has given reads, several directions where she wants to push and somewhat self-consistent VCA even if you hate it. What you do next if you're interested is pick it apart and go into why it's not good and your personal thinking as to why it's scummy. If shannon were interested I think she'd engage titus and ask about each of these but I don't think she genuinely was.

Titus then claims and shannon unvotes without much comment (1646), and asks for more info on the neighbour claims (1713) along with a brief summary as to why titus is being wagoned, though moreso facts than much of shannon's stance or opinion. Before in 1794 finally saying she should be lynched if she's still alive tomorrow...
I don't see critical analysis beyond setup stuff or actual scumhunting at any point here, since then just role and future speculation comments via titus/luv.

What I also don't get too is why shannon lost her townread on the slot here either. If you remember fluffyrabbit day 1 was actually shannon's strongest expressed townread in the game which shannon made a huge deal out of, and shannon made a post recognising that titus replaced her so there is no benefit of the doubt. Unless she is the type of player to completely throw out a read after replacement this townread backtrack looks just like the impoetic one.

Finally there's the

gerryoat

vote which is naked but shannon does talk about him earlier, as to why his wagon didn't go anywhere (1575). The thing is the gist of shannon's theory there isn't a case for gerryoat scum, it's an explanation as to why there was no strong counterwagon to rb, and the reasoning was because gerryoat was that counter, scum where already on him and that's why it didn't take off, i.e. gerryoat town. It's not a case for gerryoat scum. 1593 that becomes a bad thing though for gerry (???) and especially it's weird because shannon herself opposed the rb wagon but didn't go onto gerryoat, so I feel like she herself having a problem with that is odd given she even seems partially responsible.
Kyoukyo has his own case and theories regarding association shannon like-sort-of agrees with in 1793 but I highly doubt shannon has any of those same thought processes (uhhhhh) rather than just agreeing for the sake of voting. I might be missing something about this particular read given it's recency though.

Basically I don't see shannon think in-depth about the game for any read or show critical thinking, and when she does explain things I see inconsistencies and have a lot of trouble trying to understand her point of view. She appears to join wagons based on if they're already gaining traction (except for transcend, where people expliclty asked why she and non-voters in general weren't voting) rather than take any independent action, and doesn't put much effort questioning or engaging her scumreads (transcend, titus). Finally when a previous townread of her becomes a potential wagon that townread isn't mentioned again and seem to sort of disappear.

[Raskolnikov]

WRT titus/LUV I townread titus based on fluffrabbit's play though tbh you shouldn't even consider lynching someone who claims to have a a gunsmith/cop shot.
I'm not sure on LUV but I don't see the harm in giving both a night to potentially use actions given he claims to have 1 shot left anyways.

1-shot tracker didn't fit with universal backup and would imply a scum in the pair (probably lil), 2 shot follower could work. Although he could've changed it to match the UB 2-shot follower sounds specific and creative vs just claiming to have full shots, which suggests it's real whether town or scum.

@mod

would follower would detect BP activation by JOAT?

[Raskolnikov]

Shannon what are your actual reads?
No setup speculation. No theories, no "if X happens Y should happen", none of that. Scumreads, stances, opinions.

[Raskolnikov]

You don't even have to respond to my case, but I want to see solid stances from you if they exist.

[Raskolnikov]

The only thing that's actually kind of odd is why shannon herself didn't push gerryoat d1 as cw.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, I should have a lot more free time for this now.

[Raskolnikov]

This is the thing: I can't have reads independently theories on what's happening with the claims. And I don't think any of you have independent reads, either.

If every read required looking into the claim and speculation than there would be no concept of scumhunting until every person claimed.
Obviously it ties into a read and you don't straight up ignore it but it doesn't all out replace it and you look at both together... Anyone can make judgements like "I scumread them but the claim is really believable" or more rarely "they were okay but I don't really buy the claim" but I see you talk almost exclusively about the mechanical aspects and not give other reasoning or backing. I need to see more transparency as to the why and the thought processes going on if you have them.

And really, are people going to wait for me to flip town before they look starting further than Titus and Uzi?

See here you don't go into enough detail. You have a pool that you want other people to look at but you don't do anything yourself to further this; if you know what the right direction is why don't you look into yourself? And you end up compromising soon after too.
I take issue believing you genuinely want what you say you do when you don't do much more about it than complaining.

[Raskolnikov]

Don't be melodramatic.

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

So this is PoE then?
Do you have a preference specifically?
From your gerryoat vote I'd assume you wanted gerryoat the most, but I have my own questions regarding that in my case if you could answer them.

All in all he's probably town, being the first one to call out LUV for legitimate reasons and he was pretty clearly the counterwagon to rb d1 (which is pretty rarely scum).
I've played with him before (... that fucking pinger lynch ) and nothing's really standing out.

In the spirit of moving toward a compromise: VOTE: Drone

Why do you prefer gerry over drone?

Noticed thing #3: Yeah, the wagons on gerry and iron (now rask) should be looked upon. I never understood people scumreading drone, but I do more now, kind of, not really.

Can you explain in your own words what you agree with and disagree with?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not sure on drone.
He's been consistent with his interest in my slot so I actually like that he followed that through to me initially, but I don't know if the turn away on that is realistic. We've played before but not THAT much so I'm not sure if the "oh hey its rask this is rask is a nutshell I know" attitude is justified or buddyingish.
Had problems with shannon just earlier but didn't join the wagon and started criticizing it for composition with shannon as a null/need-more-info read.

pedit: I'm not done yet

[Raskolnikov]

(I believed the rates for 1 scum in 2 neighbours is very very low)

Do you remember where you got this from? Having the actual statistic would be useful here.

[Raskolnikov]

@TTTT
Lean town on imp. Kind of townslipped actually if you read my post on shannon where I talk about that wagon. I've probably already had more impact on the game than she's had throughout her existence but that isn't even a bad thing for someone who said they preferred to play as scum I think? Without much action there's only really tone, which although self-absorbed doesn't look overtly malicious... she should be pressured for more tomorrow but it's a bit late to start that today.

Sesq I'm reserving judgement on until I can question her push onto me.

[Raskolnikov]

@Shannon

1. Why did you vote titus for "more info" without actually asking her anything? What specifically did you want from her at that point?
2. What happened to your townread on titus's slot from fluffyrabbit regarding that push? I don't understand how you townread both titus's slot and impoetic d1 and then voted both of them early d2.
3. 1794 you suggest titus be lynched if she isn't killed, 1866 suggest both titus and luv report on the same person (which doesn't even prove align, just role) but you say you strong townread both of them. I don't see the logic behind pushing for either of these if you heavily townread both slots?

[Raskolnikov]

@LUV
I just don't get why you claimed your shannon result when neither of you were wagons at the time, I know I could've missed some of the context but I don't see how it would've accomplished pretty much anything.
Your reasoning in 1815 is you claimed so scum wouldn't target you because they'd think you useless but I still think you'd attract more attention that way than just... not doing anything?
I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt for another result, considering you're still somewhat new but eehhh.

You can make an argument for claiming as 1-shot because you don't have any more results but yeah the logic doesn't really follow for 2...

[Raskolnikov]

@mod

@mod would a follower detect BP activation by JOAT?

[Raskolnikov]

Sesq do you have any issue with my push beyond who I replaced?

You initially said you thought it was a good case so I'm interested in hearing what changed.

[Raskolnikov]

@Rask - The context referred to in 1993:
LUV/shannon were supposed to be a vig shot or a cop target last night when rb flipped scum because they were teamtelling with him and each other early on and even later in the day as rb grew more suspicious.

That makes sense regarding it being shannon, but I don't see how it'd justify claiming there though. It's not like people starting dogpiling either of them at the start of d2.

[Raskolnikov]

Hi Rask, you going to question me?

Dance McDanceface

Not really?

Fluffyrabbit was pretty obvtown and UB fake would probably be too creative. I think what you do with VCA is bad on principle but that's not really a fight worth fighting if your reads are that similar to mine.

[Raskolnikov]

Sesq do you have any issue with my push beyond who I replaced?

You initially said you thought it was a good case so I'm interested in hearing what changed.

I was trying too hard to suppress my badtown radar.

???

[Raskolnikov]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68482

Found this game as a goldmine of sorts, shannon titus and LUV are all in it.

Shannon has actual reads here as town and is a lot more involved. She's constantly asking questions here and gives detailed reads on most people without the bizarre claim or role focus I get here.
Titus as town seems stylistically similar with the same sort of conviction, though that game she ended up tunneling mason and even when the other mason backed it up she thought it was a lie.
Luv is harder to judge but never seems to do anything to draw attention to himself, which in this case the claims definitely would. It's still weird but I'd give him a night anyways to hedge bets, especially as I'm not sure both lil and shannon scum make sense given that result (would be pretty brave, anyways).

My best bet atm is shannon-drone, drone scumread shannon for a while right until the wagon happened but quickly changed when she got voted up. Which I don't get because her answers weren't really satisfying.

[Raskolnikov]

So I just realized, shannon wagoned titus originally for being obtuse and not explaining much.

In this game shannon PLAYED with town titus and saw her act similarly and even vote mason for not believing the claim (the definition of obtuse). I don't know how she acted like she never seen it from titus before unless she forgot that entire game.

[Raskolnikov]

Rask reads please other than shannon

...have you read all of my posts?

[Raskolnikov]

Talk a bit more about who would be scum if LUV flips town or scum @Rask/d7, I expect one of us will die tonight if Titus is scum. In that situation (town!LUV/scum!Titus) I think Gerry is the partner given Titus's D1 play around the rb and gerry wagons

Shannon or drone, I literally just said this.

[Raskolnikov]

I feel like what I'm saying is getting ignored.

[Raskolnikov]

If Luv is scum that means I'm probably wrong on shannon which I don't really want to think about tbh.

If that's the case it could still be drone though I'd also have to reconsider some of my reads. I still haven't looked super in-depth at every player yet but if I'm alive tomorrow I will.

[Raskolnikov]

Was going to wait until he answered my questions to voice this but I don't know what's going on with sesq either.
I don't understand his problem with my wagon and that read in general beyond the activity point and he hasn't responded so far. I can't say much of a read based on ironstove though I can understand a newer player's issue with his play.
I also think trying to push me after I come in with my massive case is kind of bold and calls a lot of attention to himself while also probably not going anywhere.

In general I find I'm rarely directly pushed by scum if there are still easier targets, rather they either hop on using a "paranoia" excuse or go the other way and try to buddy.

[Raskolnikov]

Was going to wait until he answered my questions to voice this but I don't know what's going on with sesq either.
I don't understand his problem with my wagon and that read in general beyond the activity point and he hasn't responded so far. I can't say much of a read based on ironstove though I can understand a newer player's issue with his play.
I also think trying to push me after I come in with my massive case is kind of bold and calls a lot of attention to himself while also probably not going anywhere.

In general I find I'm rarely directly pushed by scum if there are still easier targets, rather they either hop on using a "paranoia" excuse or go the other way and try to buddy.

[Raskolnikov]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68482

Shannon luv and titus all 3 in this game and no one bothers looking it when I link it. These 3 have LITERALLY been the entire focus of d2.

[Raskolnikov]

My bad, only you and d7 were even here since then. I thought I linked it before for some reason.

[Raskolnikov]

Well rip.
This is why you don't prioritize lynching in the PR claims.

[Raskolnikov]

Waiting a day would've forced a kill in the group if titus is town (likely) and failing that there'd have been a result to look at as 2 people couldn't claim no-result.

Personally I even think waiting till massclaim and judging based on the setup power is super broken strat, people either have to be CC'd (easy choices) or end up confirmed, idk why no one ever does that though.

[Raskolnikov]

So overall I'm not sure that JOAT + 2-s follower is enough investigation tools.
1 jailkeep, 1 gunsmith and 2 follows altogether is maybe 1 cop's worth of investigation power.

UB isn't really invest but I'd still count it towards that from the longer lifespan it'd give either.

Then there's either strongman or RB confirmed via n1, assuming transcend BP'd (which the JK claim 100% suggests) which is scum power on the other side.

Unless there's an invest CC I wouldn't even consider titus lynch here.

[Raskolnikov]

That said it's more likely titus was roleblocked than targeted ascetic.
Ascetic COULD exist and fits JK (not unreasonable) but follower flip suggests against it. Makes follower almost a non-factor and titus being roleblocked as claimed pr feels more likely than out of all targets she hit an ascetic.

[Raskolnikov]

Here's what I don't get, shannon how are you against titus saying her target is scum based on a no-result without knowing who the target is?

I can see people's problems with just the attitude, who HAVEN'T seen town-titus before but you remembering that from your game we literally went over yesterday and you admitted it was the same.

[Raskolnikov]

Read the game I linked yesterday.

[Raskolnikov]

It's 84 pages long and I'm in a lot of games already, is there something specific you're trying to show me?

Masons claimed together and titus pushed that it was a townie fakeclaiming mason with scum to protect him.
I was also part of a hydra in a game (Akame ga Kill mafia) a few months ago and titus pretty much deathtunneled that slot with a very strong conviction. Don't know her scum game but the sort of almost-ridiculous stubbornness you take issue with is definitely stylistic.

Enough so that that shannon somehow forgetting and acting like it's new from her here is pretty weird.

[Raskolnikov]

No, it means that part specifically is NAI, but on fluffyrabbit d1 play, the role making sense in the setup, and she pushing who I generally scumread anyways she's probably town.

[Raskolnikov]

There's one problem Titus.
How could I fuck up your target or action while it's day 3? Assuming I'm scam according to your theory.
Heck, you have more holes in your posts than a Swiss cheese!
It's very possible Titus is our scum JOAT btw, conveniently claiming ub after Transcend's death.

I'm also willing to lynch Shanna, if you guys prefer her over Titus because of Drealm flipping town.
VOTE: Titus

I received Titus' target. Will abide to her request.

Based on this, I reckon we have a Rask + Drone team. They are taking turns to be on the most popular wagon, but both needed to join the LUV one to get the PR lynch through.

I would be very, very interested to hear who Titus targeted last night.

Wow.
Yes.
When Raskolnikov replaced Ironstove, we still kept the original plan.
Oh dear.

VOTE: Shannon

You aren't even the center of attention, how can you afford that shading?
You are better of off the radar, but... You have the urge to prove innocence, cause you're not... Right?

What's your read on titus vs shannon specifically?
Given they've pretty much hard 1v1'd so much of yesterday I'd be uncomfortable simultaneously scumreading both sides here.

[Raskolnikov]

@Sesq
Why the unvote around the end of yesterday?
What happened with your scumread on me?

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm. I'm curious as to the target and but gerryoat and impoetic should weigh in before the day goes to the next "stage" here.

[Raskolnikov]

Impoetic lynch looks pretty meh tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Shannon

I want this dead. She's very good at going with the flow and I think that nice/conciliatory nature is winning people over.
But she's like a chameleon in terms of stances.

[Raskolnikov]

It's not like I malignantly quickhammered. I joke-voted. I'm telling you there isn't scum motivation in joke-voting, and it's only bad for town because the culprit is town in the first place; if I were mafia, I'd be giving town the rope with which to hang me for... what? A tiny chance to get one townie lynched early in d1... which would require two townies messing up and doing the same thing you're saying i'm scum for?

How do u know im townie though?

you're most likely town because statistically most people are town in the game, and the argument against me is assuming you're town so there's no point in considering the other scenario

This doesn't look scum-on-scum imo. Impoetic's answer here is what got her wagoned a bit later, but assuming or slipping someone as town when they're scum doesn't make any sense.

[Raskolnikov]

It's not a hard clear and the slot did legitimately lurk through most of the game non-nonchalant, but that's more anti-town than necessarily malicious... I guess the argument could be that impoetic lost motivation/lurked BECAUSE of d1 rb lynch but historically lynches like this are coinflips.

I would at least see the replacement if possible.

[Raskolnikov]

The case atm from titus is impoetic is scum because titus got no result on her and shannon started attacking titus (before titus revealed). Otherwise titus herself said she'd consider roleblock as the explanation about as likely if not more.

But it is possible titus was roleblocked and shannon took it as opportunity without the explicit target being relevant.

Consider the following:

why is titus alive?

If you leave a claimed PR alive you're intending to mislynch them or at least have it as an option. And you follow up on this either directly attacking them or otherwise casting shade.
The pool of people that makes is Shannon, TTTT, ssbm_kyouko and partially drone.

Of all of these shannon's stance on titus hasn't really made sense (d2 wagon) whereas I think I can follow the progression of kyouko and sort of TTTT. Drone did vote titus but his logic was entirely on other things; if you're going to leave someone alive to take issue with you don't attack them for entirely different reasons or even back off in under 3 hours (2168), so I don't think he really qualifies.
Shannon didn't vote titus (shannon's style in general seems to be coming in at the end with the "compromise" vote rather than leading anything though) but cast a ton of shade and focused on the theory and the places that make sense for this. Read 2309. Shannon throughout isn't having an independent drive or views but focuses on public opinion, what "everyone" thinks is a good idea and I believe trying to bring our focus to specific areas where it shouldn't be.

Titus's theory mostly hinges on shannon scum anyways but I think titus being roleblocked and having been a pre-planned target is more likely here.

[Raskolnikov]

Follow along shannon here

D2 - We should wagon titus for information. Titus is scummy for acting the same way I saw her play before and also all this claim and theory stuff but nvm she's okay (it's not going anywhere, fuck it).
D3 - It's complicated and there's a bunch of things you could interpret from this, anything is possible, but it's seems more likely titus is scum here and/or fakeclaiming. Now I personally have no idea, I'm not sure what to make of all this, I'm just putting it out there that we should look at this very closely. Titus is wrong or lying here.

The read doesn't work start to finish, put yourself in the point of view... first you thinks she's scummy for being obtuse but also just wants a wagon for funsies. Then after she literally was l-1 and had to claim, mmm I'm not sure about these role mechanics let's get all the details here, entirely new theory and speculation approach which kind of throws out what shannon said before, and vague theoretical analysis as opposed to play judgement, finally ending on a gut townread.
Now d3 that's gone and she goes heavily into why titus is lying and more likely scum than not although not going as far as to act on it.

As an overall read there's no consistent basis as to why shannon scumreads titus or talks about her in general, it shifts from one thing to another based on the situation but the result is generally just casting shade. There's not really momentum there or deeper reasoning behind it, even though the information itself and theories are very detailed and complex there isn't one solid continuous thread in it. Even earlier too when she discarded her fluffyrabbit strongest d1 townread when titus subbed in and never spoke of it, which is why that sequence was interesting to me too. There's no common line of thought from start to finish, things earlier just sort of disappear and fade away, never mentioned again, to be replaced by other new things but overall her views stay roughly the same.

I think shannon wasn't originally intending to continue to scumread titus into today (ended yesterday with a gut townread onto her), but on deciding not to kill her she revived her read to throw some shade onto her and possibly get that lynch. It makes sense as to why the read is so disjointed and doesn't follow from start to finish, from the original push to that townread to today.

Compare ssbm_kyouko. Kyouko seemed to LEGITIMATELY want to push titus for information based on his titus-impoetic theory, and when I asked more he gave reasoning regarding titus's d1 play around rb and her behaviour in general. Solid reasoning, also given kyouko isn't familiar with titus stylistically (unlike shannon) that's a legitimate view for kyouko. He followed up on that theory/associations later too without being prompted which shows he is genuinely thinking about it. Switch to LUV based on luv's claim, then today he does start on titus and does talk about the role, but he also goes back and references d1 and his train of thought before. It's consistent, it follows, and though he speculates mechanics and theorycrafts it isn't 100% of what he does. There's backbone and a basis behind it if you look at it.

Compare to TTTT. TTTT didn't say anything about scumreading titus until today and did vote her, but TTTT did not try to make titus look bad in any way. You could argue "this doesn't look right" might be casting shade but it's a stretch there. After talking with titus a bit and hearing the target of impoetic he seems okay with it, but at no point do I really see him try to "make her look bad" or influence public opinion against her despite his vote there. He's a little reserved and I don't know much about him, but I don't see his stance as malicious.

Drone as I mentioned voted titus for all of 3 hours before moving to shannon and the titus vote was on logic unrelated to her claim or being alive so it doesn't really fit the motivation either. I don't townread drone but even then that stance wouldn't make sense as the sole scum to take advantage, it's not nearly enough. Drone I've thought about as a shannon partner given his scumread turned into a townread when the wagon on her took off but shannon could just as easily be with any of the many lurker slots too and I scumread her a lot more.

[Raskolnikov]

Shannon continued, read progression specifically

D2 -> D3 details

The d2 original wagon she said was partially for

information

(stuff like WAGON analysis etc) and partially for her behaviour. The former is we know as a FACT is not true given she never mentioned it again or went into detail as to what she got from it; when I asked she gave 2020 but she said nothing about any one of those things she describes there EVER, and she couldn't answer specifically what she learned. She said "this was my thought process here" when it straight up wasn't by any observation, and you can look at her ISO and see this. The latter falls apart when I look at it too if you actually read the meta I linked, and even shannon agrees in 2107 it wasn't anything unusual for what she remembers. So she forgot that I guess when she took issue with it earlier? So that doesn't go anywhere either.
Everything here kind of falls apart when I give it the slightest scrutiny but no one cares to look beyond the surface.

Then after that initial part where titus claimed shannon didn't say much beyond getting a ton of info about the role mechanics, trying to direct titus's night actions, and suggesting she should be lynched if still alive next day. But not really scumreading her and then ending the day on a gut townread.

Move onto d3:

Prima facie I'd say that we should ask for a claim from whoever Titus' target was, and then discuss whether it's plausible and lynch the hell out of it if not. If the target flips town with no modifier that would suggest a no result, then Titus is a no-brainer lynch the next day.

I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain?

So this is the first post. Don't actually think this makes sense if shannon's scum with impoetic ascetic; in that case this would be bussing which she later hard-backtracked on?
This DOES make sense if titus was roleblocked and shannon is okay with lynch said target. This is before titus revealed target. Shannon could intentionally omit the roleblock possibility if a town is framed in this manner.

Titus then votes shannon for the omission and shannon kicks into gear here. She goes into possibilities, then goes into VCA and brings up me+drone team, then into 2258 taking issue with titus's logic around ascetic (issues shannon would still easily see if scum, if partner is RB rather than ascetic, although this post is actually okay). She works hard here when under threat and I think one of her first priorities was to figure out if the target is/isn't her.

THEN impoetic is revealed, shannon says regarding titus 2309 (I have no idea which way it goes) and is sort of whatever on impoetic. I don't have time to re-read impoetic (2300), treat my vote as if it's on her (2316). Her issues with the ascetic logic and titus? Eh whatever after hearing it's impoetic. I would NOT go along with a lynch lead by my SCUMREAD especially when I just spent all that time going over why the logic is completely flawed and dodgy fmpov. What the fuck?

Impoetic feels like LUV where no-one gives a fuck and if he's town nothing comes of it and probably no one ever talks about it again (except that had some justification because his role claim retraction).

[Raskolnikov]

@Shannon

If you think titus is scum why do seem so okay/meh with lynching impoetic with her just now??

[Raskolnikov]

Her latest turn especially though WTF

1. scumread someone
2. their logic is total bullshit
3. eh why not, consider my vote there too. haven't re-read them btw so this is based on that logic I just pointed out how ridiculous it was

[Raskolnikov]

@Impo you have to catch-up and give reads though, even just skimming.

I think you're probably town but you have to put some effort in.

[Raskolnikov]

@Sesq why did you unvote me d2 again?

I remember you were scumreading me so what changed?

[Raskolnikov]

Merry Christmas folks

Catching up

[Raskolnikov]

Can I get a scum lynch for my christmas present?

[Raskolnikov]

Rask, have you looked back at the D1 Impoetic wagon or read my case on her? Have a comment on any of that, you're really tunneling shannon as it is. Not that it's not compelling I just think scum!shannon can't avoid being lynched in 5-way and Impoetic is a big fat question mark that we should get rid of sooner rather than later

I see four points being made against her
a) overdefensive or reactive, self-conscious play.
b) d1 she assumed rb was town which qualifies as a "only scum know town" slip. Except I'd count this the opposite way to a townslip given rb scumflip; it doesn't make any sense why scum would accidentally refer to another scum as town, just logically I don't think that would happen unless she forgot rb was her partner or something like that.
c) titus's no result
d) lurking

I disagree with you on B being a bad thing, C is incredibly weak, D is more anti-town/policy than necessarily a tell and isn't really specific to impoetic. I only agree on A here but even that I'm not sure how much of is stylistic. If it's just that then shannon's been just as self-conscious in her play, but also has all the weirdness I pointed out and inconsistencies especially with her titus pushes.

[Raskolnikov]

There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.

Okay, so did it? What's your analysis here?

[Raskolnikov]

You said similar regarding your titus push d2 for information

1) It wasn't to get more info from Titus, it was to get more info about what people thought of her and who was going to add pressure, who was going to defend, who was going to react etc.

but I still can't find any analysis of any of this in your ISO. Both of these retroactively you've said was to get all this cool data to look at and use, and that would be OKAY, if there was any evidence ever you used it and did what you said you did.

But there's nothing, no mention of these things outside of answer here. It's really hard to believe you did both of these intentionally for information to analyse when you never do either, as opposed to just wanting both wagons to go through and retconing your reasoning for being in favour.

What you're basically describing in both of these is a reaction test. You're essentially saying you're reaction testing with both of these but not giving the results of the reaction tests. I believe if you actually were doing these for information that you'd use you WOULD use it and there'd be at least something in your ISO reflecting that, instead of never mentioning it in any of your game analysis or reads as a substantial point. Even just saying "I've tried to reaction test but I've gotten nothing useful or mixed results from it" would show it was at least in your mind and make it plausible but you never say anything about this except when I specifically asked for explanation behind your actions and and even then you don't really answer.

[Raskolnikov]

In an actual reaction test someone does something and expects one of several outcomes to follow. On whatever result comes you can say something about it, usually something substantial but sometimes not if it's an unexpected result. There's the test itself, and the follow-up.

The test has to be unexpected and to some extent dramatic (as not to be ignored)... Your push on titus for information is hard to buy as an intentional test when you literally said it was for information and not a real vote. Today your support of the impoetic lynch "reason", to see what would happen regarding the wagon, although not as bad, is very subtle and soft/weak for something expected to elicit reaction. An actual vote or failing that some stronger words would get some reaction but your post was just weak and literally everyone other than me just ignored it.

Still want to see the follow up too. What have you learned?

[Raskolnikov]

@TTTT what are your scumreads?
You look sort-of-okay with impoetic lynch but I'm not seeing you pushing something you'd prefer over it.

Also could you go into your shannon read?

[Raskolnikov]

If there's scum in titus/drone it's drone. Titus would've been CC'd if her claim was fake.

Drone was in favour of shannon wagon right up until it happened and then turned to calling it a terrible wagon and throwing shade on everyone on it. That was my guess going into today though realistically there's too many lurker/nullslots that could be with anyone to do any association work. But even individually it's strange.

Shannon's weirding me out TBH, her answers aren't satisfying on a factual level but there's something about the tone?

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm. There's still all the issues on her d2 progression though. Even if today's been okay that initial titus push doesn't fit the explanation.

[Raskolnikov]

@Drone
What do you think of shadonra?

[Raskolnikov]

I wanna re-evaluate a bit but it's too close to deadline.

Gerryoat and drone V/LA is annoying.

[Raskolnikov]

The thing about me, I've noticed, is that I have two modes: Super Obv Town (which is always super faked, even if I am actually town), and Genuinely Being Me (which is almost always scum read, even if I'm town). I'm actively trying to tone down the Super Obv Town because it's hard to maintain, but this 'normal' me gets me scum read, so I might have to change that!

I hope that this has been an adequate response?

What it boils down to is even though you're here and posting a lot I just don't see much independent drive from you. Like you have "unique" opinions but I feel like you push it so little it's hard to believe you aren't just going with the flow. You say it's indecision and uncertainty but I don't really see you trying to clarify it either? I feel like you exert so little influence onto the game if that makes sense, like about the same as the straight-up lurkers but while being here and posting...

[Raskolnikov]

@Titus just wondering, why did you gunsmith impo over shannon?

[Raskolnikov]

If there's scum in titus/drone it's drone. Titus would've been CC'd if her claim was fake.

plz explain this.
it's a Normal game, so why would we expect a counterclaim to universal backup neighbor?

So overall I'm not sure that JOAT + 2-s follower is enough investigation tools.
1 jailkeep, 1 gunsmith and 2 follows altogether is maybe 1 cop's worth of investigation power.

UB isn't really invest but I'd still count it towards that from the longer lifespan it'd give either.

It's complicated but I'd count UB partially towards invest power and there wouldn't be much without it. Follower's pretty weak, JK is just okay and even 1s gunsmith isn't quite cop.
Also considering transcend dying despite having a BP means roleblocker or strongman.

Titus is titus but fluffyrabbit looked pretty town too.

[Raskolnikov]

If I push things little it's because I'm not committed to a single course of action, I'm still trying to work things out. There's also the case that I *can't* push things effectively because of the scum read that's been on me so long. (Like if I'd really tried to push to save LUV, how would that have looked in the circumstance?). I will take your feedback on board.

zzzzzzzz

Idk if shannon's hardcore appeasing me or not here... I hate it when people act nice to me when I push them.

[Raskolnikov]

Need everyone on the impoetic/shadonra wagon's comment on shadonra, only TTTT's really said anything there. Gerryoat popped in but didn't mention it.

Really have to start closing the day out now. I still think shannon's probably the best lynch here, if not her then maybe drone, but it's annoying this has taken too long and I've started second guessing... I'm not 100% either shadonra's town (more like 70?) but there's the chance it's like another LUV lynch where it tells us literally nothing because of how uninvolved impoetic was.

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, shannon wagon isn't happening I guess, unfortunately I'm not as confident in it as going into today either despite all the inconsistencies I said.

Drone could still be scum here, interaction with me reads buddyingish from the getgo. Problem is shannon and drone's reads and stances are so similar one's gotta be town... In the past I'd have been turned off by the neighbour thing but literally every game I've lost has been when I trusted probability and speculation over reads and play.

Could compromise on Sesq or TTTT as a third option here... Sesq doesn't ever go into much detail and I don't know is figuring the game out or not, vote/unvote of me yesterday she said was a error in reading but is kind of ridiculous.
I thought TTTT was okay earlier but I actually don't know his reason behind anything either... He did fencesit a lot today and idk how you take both sides of something like titus vs impoetic/shadonra.

[Raskolnikov]

Shannon is a mislynch.
Titus is scum with either Shad or Rask.
I'll move back to Shad if need be, but this feels better.
VOTE: Titus

You think Titus fakeclaimed universal backup and used a no-result as a guilty all to try to distance with her scumpartner??

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, TTTT hasn't talked about me at all but seems to put me as everyone scumpartner.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Drone

Could go back to shannon or switch to TTTT.

Drone basically I feel is buddying with his read onto myself. We haven't played with each other THAT much so his "oh it's my old pal rask he's obvtown from" the moment I got in is weird... He doesn't really seem bothered by my read on him so far either so idk if he's been hoping it'd go away by itself or something if not made a big deal out of.

Tempted to do TTTT instead but the neighbour stuff edges it out. I want all setup spec questions and it as a general focus gone sooner than later if possible ESPECIALLY if I'm not going to be around then. Flip/hardclear information forces scum to kill town titus or have her be confirmed, and better to resolve setup spec questions sooner than latter; scum, scum neighbour or town all at least progress the game.

[Raskolnikov]

This'll be no-lynch at this rate.

Everyone needs to be voting here. One of shannon, drone, TTTT preferably.

[Raskolnikov]

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-03 16:47:00)

With all the V/LAs active we really can't leave this for last minute.

[Raskolnikov]

Also Rask.
If was scum, you wouldn't have lived through night 2.

You're saying you'd just autokill me everygame regardless of anything?

In the game we played I mislynched d1 and my reads weren't even good.
Pretty sure you killed me there because I was literally the only town SE in that game with everyone else a newbie so I don't even think that counts.

[Raskolnikov]

If you're in the spirit of compromise why start a new wagon instead of hopping on e.g. drone?

[Raskolnikov]

Kyouko's been my strongest townread since I got here.

I don't agree with him on everything but he's probably the only player who I can follow the read progression of without any problems.

Everything he says he either explains why in explicit detail directly or it makes sense with his other thoughts in ISO.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: TTTT

I'll settle on this if nothing else.

I don't know one reason to townread TTTT.

On ISO I can't find the reasoning behind pretty much anything he does; he expresses reads but I don't know the basis behind any of them.

[Raskolnikov]

Titus read seems to be for the just the no-result? That's okay but he hasn't really tried to look or analyse beyond that

I feel like when shadonra replaced too he just shaded him instantly rather than try to read him? Shad's response to not having a strong meta read on him made sense so I don't see the issue there.

[Raskolnikov]

Gerryoat was d1 counterwagon to scum and essentially a lurker lynch.

I've played with him before and the problems people have with him seem to be EMer tendencies

Not a strong read at all but I think we could do better.

[Raskolnikov]

Both of these are stupid

Kyouko's obvtown and gerryoats was literally rb counterwagon d1

any of drone shannon TTTT become impossible to get going but kyouko titus and gerryoat wagons spring up magically

[Raskolnikov]

If I'm obvtown why did Gerry vote me?

He's another EMer. Take the game seriously as scum but doesn't give a fuck and be useless as fuck town.

[Raskolnikov]

TTTT was saying gerryBFF up until roughly 10 minutes ago

[Raskolnikov]

I've literally played(lost) games with gerryoat in similar fashion as this

[Raskolnikov]

TTTT was saying gerryBFF up until roughly 10 minutes ago

Up until Gerry scumclaimed by voting me

You're better than this. Being wrong doesn't make someone scum.

It's probably ego rather than extremely impressive (you said you've been assuming you're the nightkill over claimed PR) but even though I have you clear town there are 4-5 people unsure of you and only 2 max scum, I'm thinking 1 with TTTT now tbh. I've seen you before too which helps.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Drone

[Raskolnikov]

Well shit.

[Raskolnikov]

Don't rush today, I want to cover all the bases.

Massclaim's standard here but can wait for a few hours at least

[Raskolnikov]

One of kyouko, me or especially titus should have died over TTTT for starters.

[Raskolnikov]

Titus why would you not use JK?

Before doctor flip I could see logic behind that but not at all afterwards...

[Raskolnikov]

No fuck it massclaim

VT, shadonra next.

You confirming not ascetic?

[Raskolnikov]

Should pause setup spec until all the roles are in then.

Have to do some research into setup balance for this too... I thought titus was conf via there not being enough town power and kind of just assumed it was roleblocker roleblocking bp over strongman.

Have to lynch correctly today or it's pretty much over, can't rely on the "1 for 1"s everyones bringing up here

[Raskolnikov]

What's the point of a JK is there's ascetic?

[Raskolnikov]

Titus if you had to assume kyouko town who'd be shadonra's partner?

What do you see about shadonra that makes you assume him scum rather than joat existence if you admit both as possibilities?

[Raskolnikov]

First impression of the hammer was shannon scum and either titus or me was dying.

That said if I was the only sane person and it was drone/shannon idk why it'd be TTTT

If the hard 1v1s are permanent it forces the lynching within it but not otherwise. And titus says she'd only bet the game on shadonra.

There's actually no hard 1v1s then, kyouko's 100% on titus but titus says she's not as convinced on kyouko as on shadonra.
Titus is 100% on shadonra but shadonra townread titus yesterday and now says he's unsure and going to sheep on it.

It's a clusterfuck still but pre-emptively restricting the lynch is dangerous. Priority has to be scumlynch here above "resolving" 1v1s...

Wish titus died like normal so this setup spec shit wasn't still around. Really should've lynched drone yesterday to at least solve the neighbour thing.

[Raskolnikov]

Setup speculation is probably my weakest point and full of dumb misleading nai things and mod variance.

The irony of it is the only person here who's probably qualified at setup spec would be titus herself

[Raskolnikov]

1850 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=69080 (reviewed by Cephrir, Untrod Tripod, Cogito, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=68509)
Cop, Vigilante, Doctor -VS- Mafia Roleblocker, Encryptor, Goon

1848 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68980 (review info missing, postgame suggested it was scum-sided despite the town win)
Jailkeeper, Odd-night cop, 1s Vigilante -VS- Mafia Neapolitan, 1s Strongman, Goon (no daytalk)

1847 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68970 (review info missing)
Rolecop, Vigilante, Doctor -VS- Mafia Jailkeeper, Goon, Goon (no daytalk)

1844 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68870 (reviewed by Antihero, callforjudgement, Radja, review thread missing. WTF @ how this even passed review, everyone agreed it was super townsided)
Tracker, 1s Gunsmith, Neighborizer/DeNeighborizer, Odd-night weak doctor, ?Universal backup -VS- Mafia Rolecop, Backup Rolecop, Goon (daytalk)

1843 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68822 - anomaly, just 3 mason setup, universally agreed as scum sided (you can't just run an open as a closed mhsmith)

1841 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714 (reviewed by mastin2, TTH and Cogito, thread missing)
Watcher, Jailkeeper, Neighbouriser, 1sBP -VS- Mafia 1s Tracker, 1s Ninja, Goon (no daytalk)

1839 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68685 (reviewed by mastin2, callforjudgement, mykonian, thread missing)
Tracker, Innocent Child, Neighbouriser, Bodyguard, Backup Protective -VS- Mafia Odd-night roleblocker, Encryptor, Goon

1838 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68600 (reviewed by Antihero, fferyllt, Cephrir, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=68002) [weird pure wifom setup]
Cop, Jailkeeper, Backup Cop, Ascetic, Ascetic -VS- Mafia Neapolitan, Goon, Goon (daytalk)

1836 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68519 (reviewed by Antihero, fferyllt, Nexus, thread not public, weird OP "archaeologist" role dominates the setup) [not very relevant]
1-shot BP Archaeologist, Tracker, 2s Vigilante, Weak Roleblocker, Bodyguard -VS- Mafia Jailkeeper, Goon, Goon (daytalk)

1833 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68482 (review info missing)
Watcher, Mason, Mason, Hated Townie -VS- Encryptor, Goon, Goon

[Raskolnikov]

This is presumably

A [Titus is town but roleblocked]
JOAT(1s BP, 1s Gunsmith, 1s Jailkeep), 2s follower, Doctor, Universal Backup -VS- Strongman, Roleblocker, Goon -OR- Mafia JOAT with goons

B [Titus fakeclaimed UB]
JOAT(1s BP, 1s Gunsmith, 1s Jailkeep), 2s follower, Doctor -VS- Strongman (full or x-shot), Goon, Goon [if Titus is scum there probably isn't both RB+strongman]

C [What titus is saying is the case]
JOAT(1s BP, 1s Gunsmith, 1s Jailkeep), 2s follower, Doctor, Universal Backup -VS- Strongman, Ascetic, Goon

and that's not even considering the neighbour thing which complicates it all that more assuming existence. I'd guess the "power" of a neighborhood depends on composition, i.e. a 2 town hood probably helps town whereas mixed maybe not. At least I don't think there's any precedent for ultra mod WIFOM scum-scum neighbourhoods so that's ruled out for sure, so a scum neighbour flip would clear the other player here.
Ordinarily something as bold as entirely faking a neighbourhood with a partner would straight up be too crazy for consideration but Titus of all people is the type of person you can't rule it out from. Except I think that would fail hardcore when you lynch one of them and don't see neighbour in the PM? Wouldn't both be caught then? But even then that could be an oversight, I've lost games before from expecting scum to have made optimal moves and being wrong...

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not sure guessing the right amount of town power is even possible without knowing scum power. We only know for sure that 1 strongman action kill was done onto transcend, and 1 goon flip.
Haven't played with jaereed in a very long time, but I know mhsmith0 likes scum-sided and hates cop or confirmed guilties (he doesn't like lack of counterplay),
mastin2 I know has a reputation for her scumplay which might make her learn there but could go either way, Nexus idk anything about.
As a trend I see daytalk completely ignored in balance calculations even though you'd assume it's scum power.
Finally every once in a while a very badly balanced setup inexplicably passes review so nothing's even for sure... might've just wasted a few hours tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

There's some "soft" things I'd assume but nothing hard and fast

1. Roleblock shuts down X-shot very hard. According to wiki, x-shot getting roleblocked still consumes the shot permanently and leaves the role with 1 less. With 2-shot follower or the joat the denial seems out of line.
2. PR synergy is questionable. UB bringing back a role wouldn't reset shots either and would be potentially useless, i.e. if LUV was killed n2 a UB would inherit 0-shot follower.
3. Jailkeep, BP, and full doctor is a ton of safety. UB would be safety on top of that. I could see an x-shot strongman to deal with jailkeep, bp and full doctor but a full strongman seems like it would outright negate them and defeat the purpose... if I'd have to add a counterbalance to the town power, scum investigative could work though?
4. Neighbourstuff. This is already a can of worms, but a PR in a neighbourhood would mean something else too. If 2-person neighbourhoods were generally town, town titus as PR would have the option of playing THROUGH her neighbour if she managed to townread before the UB triggered. This is potentially MASSIVE power, as a play by proxy would buy the PR even more extra life especially if doctor was on. Wifom would still keep it rare but all it'd take still would be a townread?

[Raskolnikov]

I think it's a fakeclaim here. The setup seems townsided after the doctor flip and titus has a reputation for claiming crazy things and creative play in general.
She's still alive d4 and didn't jailkeep anyone last night apparently which is straight up dumb after doctor died... Not jailkeeping shadonra makes sense with how much she expressed the scumread (and apparently ascetic) but you'd at least jailkeep kyouko if you see them as partner and they're heavily townread and a possible NK to boot. Titus is a really experienced player and even though the conviction makes it sound like she believes what she says I think it's not that hard to fake, given the simplicity of her arguments.

It's weird too because fluffy seemed benign enough and I really liked titus pushing shannon when I got in but I'm definitely not sure on that one anymore. Probably not the most reliable tell there is tbh.

That said, now of all times shadonra's actually kind of gone quiet even though his entrance was pretty good. Given he's being hard pushed by titus who's leading wagon he should really give his thoughts on all of this. I want his analysis and some stances here as opposed to sheeping.

If today's a mislynch this becomes pretty much unwinnable so today HAS to be done right. Would be a bit more comfortable with this if titus didn't rocket to l-1 as fast as she did either.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay I think shadonra's probably town.

Idk why he wouldn't just lynch titus otherwise given he probably could get away with it easily.
Shadonra scum with anyone outside of {Titus, Drone, Kyouko} should and would just lynch inside and let the remaining 2 fight next day I think.
But kyoukos town individually and as far as association 2885 is super risky and unlikely from him.
Drone-shadonra seems like the only real alternative but titus has too many things that don't make sense about her. Though as an alternative the team doesn't feel right either, interactions almost too bare and you'd expect some level of distancing I'd think.
Titus-shadonra's kind of a ridiculous notion really but doesn't actually matter with regard to this choice I think...

[Raskolnikov]

The reaction when hard pushed to not get defensive but instead look around and even push without any sense for self-preservation too.

[Raskolnikov]

Think I've been overcomplicating things. This means I was pretty much defending scum all of d2 and 3 from lynch though...
Titus scum puts some context with the TTTT kill, me defending her and even kyouko seemed to prefer drone to her.

[Raskolnikov]

Titus with drone, or failing that one of sesq or shannon.

[Raskolnikov]

Probably gonna hammer today.

Again, really should've flipped drone yesterday to solve this neighbourhood fuckery, if we lose the game it's because everyone randomly went up and lynched gerryoat for no reason instead of that.

[Raskolnikov]

The downside is even if titus is town if we mislynched she'd probably end up lynching kyouko in 5p

[Raskolnikov]

I think if you're town you have to be wrong though about pretty much everything.

If shadonra is scum I don't think it's with kyouko. The whole pushing a no-result as a guilty is shaky as fuck, and I don't get picking impoetic over your scumreads n2 and now no-one.

You'd have to make a case based on play not the no-counterwagon spec and ascetic push. I thought you were town by necessity as last PR before gerry flipped, assumption being protective would've just insta'CC a universal backup claim back when it was VS follower (and anyone other than gerry probably would've) and from your reads at the time, not from anything in your pushes being especially town. Basically don't see a compelling reason why you couldn't fake this push atm whereas shadonra at least seems like he thought about things a bit more in depth.

[Raskolnikov]

I gotta go for IRL things but I am not a fan of Rask suddenly losing his townread on me when SSM positis Drone with Rask.

He said that was only the case if both you and shadonra were town

[Raskolnikov]

TBH I feel more uncomfortable with drone echoing shad's position that I've lived too long while voting with me than anything from kyouko

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Drone

Actually fuck it

[Raskolnikov]

Oh you don't?
Scum have this preference to keep Raskolnikov with her pages long analytics and night kill TTTT instead?
Cmon, you're better than that.

If the page long analytics involve lynching town and defending scum, maybe.

If you say "if I was scum you'd have died n2" and then arguments about how I'm alive too long pop up, maybe.

[Raskolnikov]

I feel like I didn't actually have much real influence either beyond my initial shannon push, everything after seemed to pretty much get ignored and people lynched gerry instead.

Kyouko's point about TTTT defending him too.

[Raskolnikov]

You'd have to make a case based on play not the no-counterwagon spec and ascetic push

Still waiting for an answer on this.

You said too to hold off because you'd re-calibrate and were going to come up with a plan and everything but I haven't see that either?

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, just the one gallon.

VOTE: Titus

[Raskolnikov]

You've had your time now and did fuck all with it.

If he's confirmed scum you should've EASILY been able to find at least 1 thing other than no CW.

[Raskolnikov]

Did you seriously think you could come into the game defending rb for not having a counterwagon then later get away pushing everything on that same logic?

I've waited a long while to see if you'd ever once go back and MAYBE second guess yourself based on that, but no, not once, not even anything approaching that.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kyouko

[Raskolnikov]

3. Lil Uzi Vert, the

Town 2-Shot Follower

was lynched Day 2
5. gerryoat, the

Town Doctor

was lynched Day 3
7. Titus, the

Town 1-Shot Universal Backup Neighbour

was lynched Day 4

lel

[Raskolnikov]

I hope we all learned a valuable lesson about VCA here.

VC 1.34 (FINAL)

rb

(7)

:

Transcend, drealmerz7

,

ssbm_Kyouko

,

Sesq

,

gerryoat

,

ironstove

,

TTTT

-- LYNCH!

gerryoat

(1)

:

Drone

Lil Uzi Vert

(1)

:

Titus

Transcend

(1)

:

shannon

Sesq (1)

:

rb

NOT VOTING (2)

:

Impoetic

,

Lil Uzi Vert

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-10 12:30:00)

VC 2.20 (FINAL)

Lil Uzi Vert (6)

:

TTTT, gerryoat, drealmerz7, Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Drone

-- LYNCH!

shannon (1)

:

Raskolnikov

Drone (1)

:

shannon

Titus (1)

:

Lil Uzi Vert

NOT VOTING (2)

:

Impoetic

,

Sesq

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

Essentially it's garbage. The whole thing is supposed to be statistical, show you "trends", "x is slightly or moderately more likely than y", not to give any hard and fast rules or conclusions, definitely not as a replacement for actual scumhunting. It can be useful to "suggest" things and often than not can point you in the right direction to get started, but shouldn't be more than a rough guide.

The other problem is VCA was mentioned as a substantial tell all the way back in d1, before the first wagon even got through, before 2nd scum got on. Even if it didn't influence that composition (I'm not sure if he cared about VCA vs just bussing for cred), you have to assume by the end of d2 it would've impacted future VCs, with just how often it was getting brought up. To think you could spam VCA VCA out loud in thread and assume scum would either not notice, or see it but just act exactly as usual and not subvert the VCA in any way, is very naive.

I encourage anyone who plays in future as scum VS anyone bringing up VCA to deliberately do stuff to mess their analysis up so hopefully it just dies altogether from common usage. Even hardcore VCAers probably agree it has to be rare and unexpected to be useful. I could see a decent usage case being, for example, replacing into a game in lylo where it was never mentioned and THEN doing it (but even then watch out).

[Raskolnikov]

That's true too. I knew you wouldn't do that, wasn't sure about shadonra but with his somewhat lackadaisical style I didn't expect it from him either. Drone I thought if he did instavote it'd have been on me, given yesterday.

I assumed I'd have to win a 1v1 today, told sesq not to bet on anyone instavoting and that a quick lylo was rather unlikely but I was wrong about that

[Raskolnikov]

I was wondering how it'd play out if me/drone did 1v1, since you thought that was the team, who you might've ended up voting.

[Raskolnikov]

Was very worried about today tbh, as a scumteam it looked rather obvious if you give it 10 minutes. Really bad associations, we straight up ignored each other all game.

[Raskolnikov]

Spoiler: was gonna push shannon even harder d2, decided against it

Regarding transcend/rb and how shannon plays into it

First mention is in 394, to kohai saying he has a problem with transcend's fluffyrabbit townread. Shannon's answer is wishy-washy but concludes he might be right [about it being weird]. Then a mention that she played with transcend and luv before but lacks any memory of those games.
Now this is so far okay as a basis for a read.
But follow this through: shannon soon strong townreads fluffyrabbit too. Of note is the later 859 shannon has the early fluffy posts as screaming town to her, the same ones transcend got his early from which were too early. Possibly an oversight, but if this was the basis of the read you'd think she'd reconsider. And minor, but she doesn't revisit that previous game or meta (i.e. go back and read your own game you were a part of) when she later struggles "reading" transcend.

Now around this point transcend started to scumread shannon for a forced post, and then to rb starting that push, with 751 saying [rb] and other scum most likely being shannon and kohai(gerryoat).
813

My personal thoughts on Transcend lean towards scummy, but I take the word of people earlier in the game who said it's basically impossible to tell D1. Given that he can also apparently be really good as town, I don't think we should lynch there today, based on a cost/benefit thinky thing.

Now the thing is this shannon is expressing a mild scumlean here with the caveat that she shouldn't lynch him today. But I don't understand the pickyness when shannon didn't seem to have other scumreads; this prioritization makes sense if you have an alternative scumread that isn't a potentially good town player (you vote that person instead) but not really otherwise.

Interesting about RB's image macros potentially being a tic. Catch of the game if RB flips scum.

This is the first rb mention, although an indirect one as it's more talking about transcend and transcend's read on rb.
What I find interesting is the "transcend strong player" concept. Not first brought up by shannon but somewhat adopted- and from shannon scum perspective the view absolutely makes sense: transcend calling out RB that early based on image usage along with shannon in 751. The thing is this wouldn't even be an overly conscious decision, but rather just the truth to her pov, with transcend looking like a legitimately great town player her view actually makes sense if you think about it. It only looks odd because at that time she wouldn't have that much reason to think like that about pretty much her only scumread, and before rb flip you wouldn't necessarily be thinking about how impressive transcend's catch was. I think if shannon's scum she didn't want to vote right here out of a sort of self-conscious fear; I could see why she'd hesitate voting transcend right after he says rb/shannon. Also theorize that around this time she may have already been thinking of transcend in nightkill terms given the "respect" view and the (for scum shannon pov) accuracy.

814 to 824 is an exchange between transcend - shannon.
815 is awkward and the treating of transcend doesn't match the read (she said she doesn't want to lynch transcend as she isn't sure on him flipping scum)
816 has, after her townreads, the lone scumread, "Scum but not lynching for reasons stated: Transcend" which makes sense in about no situation.
Transcend rightfully wonders why shannon doesn't just come at him and her response being it's a read solely on bad vibes and questioning the rb wagon stuff as alignment-indicative.
Finally he asks why she doesn't just wagon him for the sake of clarifying the "bad vibes" read and says her play is too careful and tactical with the response in 824 kind of just mocking it
Read altogether shannon's approach regarding her read is absurd and answers to transcend ridiculous.
It's even awkward for scum, but I think what happened is shannon didn't expect to be pressed on her read or probed too far into it. Her townreads generally either townread transcend and/or thought he was good and you wouldn't expect any of them to have a problem with that sort of read because of her not-lynching caveat. It's only really transcend himself who could've challenged that and questioned the lack of vote because of how middle of the road it was.

852, 854, 859
I don't see why as town she wouldn't feel like quoting her scumread and try to back that up but happily does so for a townread. If anything I tend to get the opposite with describing townreads being pretty boring (and tends to get them killed).
She casts more shade here for tone and transcend switching styles but holds vote. The logic being that transcend acting seriously to push and justify a wagon isn't the same behaviour as he had in rvs. Around this point the rb wagon is starting to pick up.

911
Thing to note here: the "anti-town" angle regarding transcend's call for hammer. Good vs bad manners. I agree waiting for a claim d1 is generally correct play, but in that situation if my top scumread did that I would simply find it scummy rather than bad etiquette. It's a subtlety of phrasing but shannon is pushing this moreso that it's improper or anti-town than that its scummy and that transcend is scum for it. There is a sort of shock in the tone, but instead of the town sort of shock that your scumread is acting that scummy, this reads more of a shock that rb could get lynched without claim as the focus rather than transcend himself.
The transcend theory after that is actually not so bad and has depth of thought to it, I can see that being a legitimate fear. The only problem being she introduced it as "Actually, I can see a way that Scum Transcend makes this play:" which gives the feeling she herself doesn't seem to buy into it; there just isn't quite the conviction behind it.

1089
This is after rb and then transcend claim.
Shannon says the crumbs were very obvious (kind of) and it was her reasoning for not pushing him. I didn't think much of this at first beyond finding it OTT, but on review I do buy this, it makes perfect sense for her actions. But being true doesn't mean it's town. Either align can definitely pick up crumbs but naturally scum (or PR, but shannon confirms lil's "didn't visit anywhere" result) will look a lot harder, and shannon was the only one who made it out as she already knew. On top of that though she said it was incredibly obvious too. I can't personally judge this part that well given almost every crumb looks obvious in hindsight because of, well, hindsight. It is true the JK claim didn't really counterclaim BP so I don't have a problem with that analysis; again though the thing is she's pushing transcend for being wrong or acting anti-town moreso than being scum.

1278
Emphasis is on "case". At no point does shannon commit to a townread onto rb and in fact barely mentions him. It's the lack of case shannon has a problem with, the process, the urgency. And on transcend the gut/bad vibes, the change of tone (why is he being serious and using actual reasoning?) and the handling of claims as anti-town and bad manners. Nothing about the read, and town shannon would absolutely talk more about her own rb read here instead of focusing on this angle. Generally people don't take that much issue with a lynch of someone they don't townread, even if they're against it's kind of whatever but shannon is adamant about having it dismissed.

Altogether I think transcend was on the money regarding rb AND shannon, which was part of why shannon gained the notion of him as a very good player here (despite not remembering their game) and also why she wanted to discredit the case on rb without straight up townreading him. Shannon interaction with rb is almost non-existant.

[Raskolnikov]

Hey you can't post yet my friend, what if there's a Town 1-shot governor-vigilante? BP-PGO? Maybe kyouko's supersaint or vengeful.

[Raskolnikov]

If I got the impoetic lynch, I would have been all over you.

Wouldn't have ever let you lynch impoetic unless I intended to nightkill you same-cycle, people tend to have clarity after being proven wrong.

Before she replaced out I really wanted to bring her as a lurker to lylo anyways. Widely scumread lurkers are honorary scum, wouldn't ever wanna bus them if possible.

I really suck at PR reading though, I wanted to bring gerryoat to lylo too, it was lucky he was hammered without getting to claim.

[Raskolnikov]

Our cohesion and synergy was pretty off, association kind of obvious if anyone looked; straight up ignored each other. I probably should've said I townread her at least so it wasn't totally bare, but I wasn't sure how to do it in a way that didn't look shallow.
Town were too distracted by the whole PR clusterfuck though so we never got any serious pressure or eyes on either of us until too late.

[Raskolnikov]

If every 2p-neighbourhood really is town/town then that shit's broken, you can just assume 2 town and easily win any of those games.

Need some games with 1-town 1-scum hoods and get that sorted out

[Raskolnikov]

Original plan for lategame was getting rid of drone+titus in the same cycle (lynch 1 kill 1) because I thought neighbour logic would clear him like that. Was absolutely not planning on killing shannon lol, she was one of my take-to-lylo picks earlier. Was funny she posted that bah too, I did see her online before the flip and imagined her all prepared and eager to solve the lylo, absolutely not expecting to get killed, and then being so disappointed

[Raskolnikov]

In that scenario couldn't you just PM mod for more clarification? At least that's what I'd have done. I think in normal queue there's an expectation of people to at least know what their role does with little-to-no ambiguity?

[Raskolnikov]

If every 2p-neighbourhood really is town/town then that shit's broken, you can just assume 2 town and easily win any of those games.

Need some games with 1-town 1-scum hoods and get that sorted out

Those exist. Scum CRUSH those.

Interested in seeing where drone got his "pretty much all 2p neighbours are town/town" statistics from then. I asked during the game too but he didn't answer, and I figured I probably shouldn't bring it up again

[Raskolnikov]

Re: 3166

Does this mean titus never actually had JK? Might not have lynched/killed her then tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

Of course not, I just wondered if I would've still lynched titus there if she had no shots of anything left.

[Raskolnikov]

Basic VCA

gerryoat

(5): TTTT, ssbm_Kyouko, shadonra, Sesq, shannon -- LYNCH!
ssbm_Kyouko (3): Drone, Titus, gerryoat -- L-2!
Drone (1):

Raskolnikov

For ANYONE townreading kyouko at all, that guy sitting out the day's lynch when it's town v town? That's scum with substantial probability.

Well tbh I WOULD potentially sit out a lynch if I disliked both wagons. Or if someone was already going to hammer gerry (which I mean was also a quickhammer to be fair).

If it's weak townread (gerry) VS strong townread (kyouko) competing wagons it's not like I would be in any hurry to hammer lol. Being on that wagon at the end would've meant hammering before shannon i.e. without claim as well

[Raskolnikov]

Well the important question is if it was him vs me which would you have voted?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm surprised there were no "why is sesq still alive? memes, but I guess it's plausible scum took a new player to lylo to try to exploit.
Well, and the day ended extremely fast.