Micro 667 - Chosen Mafia (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
Locked
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #950 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:10 pm

Post by Creature »

I think your slot's town seeing shaddow had a chance to lynch me but didn't.
Sigh
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #951 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:38 pm

Post by Ümläüt »

So, I think we mostly agree our two candidates today are Tenshii and TTTT.

If Tenshii is scum this makes it more likely that TTTT is chosen; the reverse is not true. So this might indicate we should lynch Tenshii first, to minimize the chance of hitting chosen given that one of these two is scum.

Of course, I'm the one saying this, and the same reasoning says that if I'm scum Tenshii is likely to be chosen. So you might not trust that I'm arguing in good faith.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #952 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:22 pm

Post by Ümläüt »

Wait, I guess if one of them is scum it doesn't matter if the other is chosen as long as we lynch them both.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Human Sequencer
Human Sequencer
all
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Human Sequencer
all
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3501
Joined: September 23, 2016
Pronoun: all

Post Post #953 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:47 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

i mean this spec is all pretty well and good (actually really helpful and informative) but on the other hand there's no real reason for it when you could just read everybody in the game who isn't TTTT, realize how town they are, and then realize that we still need one more scum
nah
User avatar
TTTT
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5323
Joined: October 4, 2016

Post Post #954 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:27 am

Post by TTTT »

@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?

Umlaut wants me dead
which more and more makes me think I'm chosen
User avatar
Human Sequencer
Human Sequencer
all
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Human Sequencer
all
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3501
Joined: September 23, 2016
Pronoun: all

Post Post #955 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:29 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

1. yep

2. nah
nah
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #956 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:16 am

Post by Ümläüt »

In post 954, TTTT wrote:@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?
This isn't actually what happened though.
  1. You pushed on Dave d1 but not hard. You said you wanted him turbo-lynched but never voted him.
  2. You voted Dave d2 but only after putting Hiraki to L-1 and only after Dave slipped.
  3. You unvoted Dave (without any new information about Dave) when enough time had passed that he was clearly not being speed-lynched.
  4. You continued to say Dave
    could be
    scum while not voting him.
  5. It was not at all obvious that the Dave wagon was going through until he self-hammered.
This can easily be explained as scum distancing from his partner, busing when it suddenly seems to become necessary, then backpedaling from the bus when it turns out not to be necessary after all, but continuing to keep his distance.

Alternately, if you're town, you have much less confidence in your reads than you let on. You were suspicious of Dave from the beginning, but overstated your degree of suspicion. When he slipped, you took this as sufficient reason to join his wagon, but then got cold feet. You argued that this was because he was "probably town" but actually you're just afraid of mislynching.
Last edited by ChaosOmega on Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #957 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:16 am

Post by Ümläüt »

@Mod: would you be so kind as to edit that opening list tag to '
  1. ' for me?


Sure.
Last edited by ChaosOmega on Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #958 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:16 am

Post by Tenshii »

Why is Creature obviously Chosen? I don't think nightkill logic applies here because scum probably planned on no killing.
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #959 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:17 am

Post by Tenshii »

In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).
How did you get these odds?
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #960 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:19 am

Post by Creature »

What about N1?
Sigh
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #961 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:54 am

Post by Tenshii »

Oh. True. Kinda. Idk, if you think you're more NK-worthy than Grendel then sure.

VOTE: TTTT
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #962 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:07 am

Post by Ümläüt »

In post 959, Tenshii wrote:
In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).
How did you get these odds?
  • The set of living players is {M(afia), C(hosen)1, C(hosen)2, T(ownie)1, T(ownie)2}
  • Choosing two lynches means choosing a size-two subset thereof.
  • There are 10 size-two subsets: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}, {C1, C2}, {C1, T1}, {C1, T2}, {C2, T1}, {C2, T2}, {T1, T2}
  • 4 of these hit the mafioso: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}
  • 1 of these hits both non-chosen: {T1, T2}
So 4/10 = 2/5 probability of hitting the mafioso, and 1/10 chance of hitting both non-chosen.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #963 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:08 am

Post by Ümläüt »

Note that the lynch order doesn't actually matter, except insofar as if we were to lynch a chosen today the Mafia might decide to kill after all which if anything would slightly improve our chances (under the assumption that we were choosing randomly).
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #964 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:10 am

Post by Ümläüt »

TTTT is at L-1
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
TTTT
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5323
Joined: October 4, 2016

Post Post #965 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:00 am

Post by TTTT »

if I flip Chosen you need to lynch in Umlaut-Human tomorrow
if I flip VT then lynch in Umlaut-Tenshii
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #966 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:02 am

Post by Creature »

tbh I think we should go at Umlaut and Tenshii because they're less likely to be Chosen. Though, I kinda wished we could end the game rn.
Sigh
User avatar
TTTT
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5323
Joined: October 4, 2016

Post Post #967 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:05 am

Post by TTTT »

before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon
this is bad town blinded by an exotic set-up

Pedit: some sense!
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #968 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:14 am

Post by Ümläüt »

In post 967, TTTT wrote:before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon
This is your slot, not you, but Misa's push on Creature never really made much sense from a town PoV. Creature's reasoning for suspecting Vedith as chosen was fairly transparent and he had explained it by the time Misa voted.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #969 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:34 am

Post by Tenshii »

In post 966, Creature wrote:Though, I kinda wished we could end the game rn.
We could end the game rn.
User avatar
Ümläüt
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1145
Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX

Post Post #970 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:46 pm

Post by Ümläüt »

Is anything else going to happen today?

It seems early to end it, but everyone has posted and no one seems to have anything else they want done. Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name starts with T.

I also think I have a townier record than Tenshii, so I'm not worried about a 1v1 there.

Intent: TTTT


By the way, if TTTT should flip regular townie, the mafia can't NK. Can we all agree that in that case we should just skip the night phase?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
User avatar
TTTT
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
TTTT
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5323
Joined: October 4, 2016

Post Post #971 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:03 pm

Post by TTTT »

yep, I'm chosen
The two most likely scum both want me dead

@Human
Umlaut is prob scum but look at Tenshii, too

See you in the dead thread Creature
User avatar
Creature
Creature
Solve This Game
User avatar
User avatar
Creature
Solve This Game
Solve This Game
Posts: 46072
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire

Post Post #972 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:08 pm

Post by Creature »

Don't lynch yet.
Sigh
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #973 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:41 pm

Post by Tenshii »

In post 970, Ümläüt wrote:Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name
starts
ends with T.
FTFY
User avatar
Tenshii
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Tenshii
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1676
Joined: June 17, 2016
Location: California

Post Post #974 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:49 pm

Post by Tenshii »

Fwiw though I think this will flip scum.
Locked

Return to “Mayfair Club [Micro Games]”