Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #5111 (isolation #200) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:59 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Cool. There's a decent consensus for massclaim. We should only (at least at first) claim drafted cards; any further info we can decide on after that. Bottom to top order of unclaimed people:
TWIW
LUV
Dunn
Vecna
dreamer
Maxous
giga
Kison
davesaz
gerry
Time is ticking - let's get going.

(Fishy, Mathblade, Spyrex, McMenno and Grey have already claimed).
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Post Post #5113 (isolation #201) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:17 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

(I think you'd claimed "Hated, Hated, Beloved" in Spades, and the 2 of Spades, which nails it)
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Post Post #5116 (isolation #202) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:22 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Hated doesn't stack.
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Post Post #5182 (isolation #203) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Quick phone post, more later

Massclaim is happening. PR outing means fuck all in a game where we have three widely town read powerful players for the scum to shoot. The players arguing against it have given no reasons worth a damn, and aren't the people thinking about the setup.

Also, scum tracker tracked Dunn to Dave. Obvs.
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Post Post #5189 (isolation #204) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:31 am

Post by Fishythefish »

The 2 of diamonds? I got it. That's how I got into that hood.
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Post Post #5197 (isolation #205) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@MB: I can post there when it's open. And can read it all the time.
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Post Post #5206 (isolation #206) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@MB: everything you are saying starts from "Dunn is scum". Where do you get that from, exactly? If Dunn has claimed scum multiple times, could you please point out where?
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Post Post #5244 (isolation #207) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Was it public knowledge that Dave was in the clubs hood?
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Post Post #5261 (isolation #208) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:21 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

If noone knew outside the clubs hood knew dave was in it (and I don't
think
they did?), one of them is probably scum targetting a card cop.
In post 5257, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Why are we mass claiming? Are we in lynch or lose or close to it? Gerry made an interesting point earlier and I think it might be valid. He thinks scum are running this game and to me it's starting to feel that way. All mass claiming does is just give more information to scum that they don't need to know.
We are massclaiming because:
- Scum already know a lot of protown players with good cards, so it doesn't help them kill much
- There are specific cards that are likely scum, so it helps us lynch quite a lot
We've started now, and we're going to finish. We don't have much time. It really is time for you to claim or die.

The concern that scum is leading this is misplaced. All the people who are thinking hard about the setup agree on this one. Many of them are pretty obviously town.
In post 5248, drealmerz7 wrote:@ maxous, vecna, and fishy (and grey too but grey is voting atm and I understand it)

you were comfortable voting mcmenno yesterday

is there a difference/reason today why you're not voting him today? can you share it if so?

are we waiting for claim stuff and I'm supposed to not be pushing for a lynch? because I just want to lynch...
I'm comfortable with a McMenno lynch today, and more so after the kill, but I think massclaim has a decent chance of giving us something better.

Massclaim status
In post 5151, McMenno wrote: 42 - Mathblade - Jc, 2s, 8s
77 - -Grey- - Kd, 8h, 10h
5 - gerryoat
5 - Fishythefish 4c, Js (gone), 2c (gone)
11 - Kison
13 - gigabyteTroubadour - 2h, 3c
13 - Maxous
17 - drealmerz7
2 - Vecna
2 - Dunnstral - 2d, 4s, 7h
2 - SpyreX - 2c, 8c, 9c
12 - McMenno -3c, 3d (missed 7h)
12 - Lil Uzi Vert
12 - TWIE 5c, 9c (missed 8s)
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Post Post #5262 (isolation #209) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:21 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Filled in the massclaim above with the cards I think have been claimed in thread.
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Post Post #5267 (isolation #210) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:03 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Answering an earlier question: I'm not up for a Dunn lynch. He's played a pretty damn pro town game (giga save, 2 revive), and I see nothing scummy about him in thread.

I got a slight townping off Gerry around the scumslip yesterday. Would have been quite bold scum to press it like he did, and at least in the QT he was the first to press. Nothing big, though.
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Post Post #5292 (isolation #211) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:19 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert
It's LUV's turn in massclaim, and he is posting elsewhere but not here. Likely scum with a hard claim. Scum delaying is good for them here, with time being short.

Here's where I am on people I can imagine getting lynched or want lynched:
-
Dunn
is pretty damn protown from his actions. He's pretty protown in the thread. I still think his hood post
could
be a scumslip, but the phrasing is just Dunn. Not keen.
-
Mathblade
has reasonably scummy cards (they put town off lynching him lots of the time). He's super-duper wrong about just about everything in the game, but in a way that gives me a gut town feel. I dunno, I just feel scum would know too much to be as wrong as Mathblade is.
-
gerryoat
I also have a gut town feel on. This comes from two places: his play after Dunn's slip yesterday, where he was the first to pick a fight with a reasonably influential player, and his "scum are leading this" line today. I can imagine where that concern comes from, though I think it's very wrong, and I don't think it's a thing scum would readily dream up.
-
Lil Uzi Vert
I think is scum.
-
TWIE
I really have no opinion of. Possibly I should sort that out.
-
McMenno
is a very decent shout for scum.
-
Kison
could be scum, but I have a mild townread from his play on Maria and general scumhunting.

Pending claims, I would really like our three kills before the scum next kill to come from [LUV,TWIE,McMenno,Mathblade,gerry], with that rough order of preference. We should absolutely direct Spyrex's kill.
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Post Post #5295 (isolation #212) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:31 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Could you explain why the innocent child has anything to do with massclaim? I really don't get what the one has to do with the other. Why does massclaim make any more sense when giga is confirmed than when giga is unconfirmed?
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Post Post #5296 (isolation #213) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You say my list is terrible - what are you reads atm, beyond giga/Dunn scum?
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Post Post #5303 (isolation #214) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:43 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@LUV: we have 5 days. But that's not much considering the number of claims we need, plus a lynch. giga is up for massclaim, as is nearly everyone else. It's time for you to tell us those cards.
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Post Post #5304 (isolation #215) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:45 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@MB: My thoughts on giga are that scum would be crazy to take (or falsely claim) a card that gives them zero power except to be trusted as town for a day or two until hearts come up and they die. You can cry WIFOM all you like, but
even with
the trust giga is getting in this game, having that card would be a mistake.

Pretty sure I'm the biggest massclaim pusher, btw :)
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Post Post #5309 (isolation #216) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:55 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5302, MathBlade wrote:
In post 167, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 165, Maxous wrote:why are we wagoning him?
two people is hardly a wagon
Instead there is stuff here that can easily be cross talk meant for another thread.
Really? You think that Max slipped and talked in this thread
and giga replied
? That's just... so unlikely.
In post 5297, MathBlade wrote:If Giga is confirmed town as most people are acting as Giga is then scum have to waste an NK on him giving PRs more time to act.

By delaying that until we have the firm if Giga is town then we know that Giga and Dunn have been pushing it from a good place and we have one of our PRs live longer.

In contrast Giga and Dunn have been the big ones with the push for mass claim. If Giga is scum this literally hands them their kills and who they need to fool. For example I don't need to be NK'd because of my spades cards I can be policy lynched or if I get to end game and spades gets up and it takes 0 votes to lynch me I am dead.

It is a matter of motivation and proper claiming so we don't give scum too.

Pedit Grey and Maxous.
The other problem (other than giga being obvtown) is that we aren't getting giga confirmed for at least 2 days, even if we put all our efforts into it. It's just not a good enough reason to delay indefinitely.

Even if giga and dunn
are
scum, there are more townread people with known good cards - me, for example. We're not helping scum with their kills that much.

---

Forgot when talking about lynching: dave kill seems very likely from the clubs hood.

---

Pedit: Interesting! Uzi is the other beta vig. Note that only Uzi currently has a kill tonight (lower in the draft). My first thought is lynch him, and let spyrex shoot.
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Post Post #5310 (isolation #217) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Massclaim status - Vecna's up

42 - Mathblade - Jc, 2s, 8s
77 - -Grey- - Kd, 8h, 10h
5 - gerryoat
5 - Fishythefish 4c, Js (gone), 2c (gone)
11 - Kison
13 - gigabyteTroubadour - 2h, 3c
13 - Maxous
17 - drealmerz7
2 - Vecna
2 - Dunnstral - 2d, 4s, 7h
2 - SpyreX - 2c, 8c, 9c
12 - McMenno -3c, 3d (missed 7h)
12 - Lil Uzi Vert - Qh, 9s, 7c
12 - TWIE 5c, 9c (missed 8s)
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Post Post #5311 (isolation #218) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:58 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Typo: spyrex's cards are all spades, not clubs.
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Post Post #5347 (isolation #219) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:04 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5326, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 5324, gerryoat wrote:
In post 5258, Dunnstral wrote:iso gerry

there isn't a reason to not lynch him anymore. Let's lynch mathblade and gerry
Notice how he didn't start fosing me until after he slipped lol
Fishy look at diamond neighborhood and tell us this is untrue
Dunn did indicate some suspicion of gerry in the hood.

@TWIE: what's so townish about Vifam day 1?
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Post Post #5376 (isolation #220) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:48 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5371, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:
In post 4980, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:Lil Uzi Vert (6) - SpyreX, Fishythefish, Kison,
milkshake
,
Titus
, kraska77
@fishy

especially knowing you're town does the rb kill really make sense with
  • A: this wagon composition

    B: rb's hard defense of uzi
uzi being mostly voted for by town implies that if uzi is scum they don't want to bus him (believable considering he has the working beta vig). but then why kill the most staunch, shit-together, obvtown person against that lynch instead of killing someone else well-townread and with mostly correct reads (i.e. scumreading Uzi)? obviously "wifom" or some shit to that effect is an answer but no one really analyzes NKs anymore, and also there's the fact that there's still a fuckton of slots alive by D2, so the scumteam should be killing off the people who are mostly right early on so they can save their shots for PRs later in the game. it's not really jibing with me

where am i going wrong with this train of thought?
rb could well have been killed for good scumreads. I had his scumpool as {Maria, Vedith, Titus, jackal}. If Vedith was scum, that plus rb's influence would be plenty for a kill.

TWIE, incidentally, has two fairly interesting points going for him:
- He's in the clubs hood, where there is surely a murderer.
- As someone (you?) said, he's claimed the most likely cover card for the scumtastic Ace of Clubs.
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Post Post #5379 (isolation #221) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:51 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5329, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Not a fan of that. I want to shoot either Kison or TWIE.
If McMenno flips town, can you please promise to shoot TWIE? The clubs neighbourhood almost certainly has a scumbag (that's how they knew to kill dave), and I'll bet it's one of those two.
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Post Post #5384 (isolation #222) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:43 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: McMenno

L-2
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Post Post #5386 (isolation #223) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:46 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, that's an idea. I know Vecna's cards. Pretty sure he'd be OK with me claiming them. Reckon I should?
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Post Post #5388 (isolation #224) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:48 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah, let's get a move on.

Vecna drafted the Ace and 6 of diamonds.
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Post Post #5389 (isolation #225) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:50 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Massclaim status - it's dreamer time

42 - Mathblade - Jc, 2s, 8s
77 - -Grey- - Kd, 8h, 10h
5 - gerryoat
5 - Fishythefish 4c, Js (gone), 2c (gone)
11 - Kison
13 - gigabyteTroubadour - 2h, 3c
13 - Maxous
17 - drealmerz7
2 - Vecna - Ad, 6d
2 - Dunnstral - 2d, 4s, 7h
2 - SpyreX - 2s, 8s, 9s
12 - McMenno -3c, 3d (missed 7h)
12 - Lil Uzi Vert - Qh, 9s, 7c
12 - TWIE 5c, 9c (missed 8s)
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Post Post #5393 (isolation #226) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:55 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Massclaim status - Kison to play

42 - Mathblade - Jc, 2s, 8s
77 - -Grey- - Kd, 8h, 10h
5 - gerryoat
5 - Fishythefish 4c, Js (gone), 2c (gone)
11 - Kison
13 - gigabyteTroubadour - 2h, 3c, 8c
13 - Maxous - Ah, 3h, 5h
17 - drealmerz7 - 9h, 3h
2 - Vecna - Ad, 6d
2 - Dunnstral - 2d, 4s, 7h
2 - SpyreX - 2s, 8s, 9s
12 - McMenno -3c, 3d (missed 7h)
12 - Lil Uzi Vert - Qh, 9s, 7c
12 - TWIE 5c, 9c (missed 8s)
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Post Post #5396 (isolation #227) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah, Max is town as anything. He's the centre of the townhood.
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Post Post #5400 (isolation #228) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

If McMenno is town TWIE needs to die.

Either way, LUV is still scum and I don't know why no-one else thinks that.
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Post Post #5406 (isolation #229) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:16 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5402, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:ok so basically here's the plan:

today we lynch mcmenno and mathblade

Both flip town: Uzi holds fire (stay in mylo to prevent Spyrex QH)
McMenno and Math both flip scum: Uzi picks his target
Only McMenno flips town: Shoot in {TWIE, gerry}
Only Mathblade flips town: Uzi picks his target

I think works out? not really sure where to go if only MB flips town.

is gerry/mcmenno possible in your opinion, fishy and dunn? based on in-thread stuff i don't think so but if the hood says something else?

grey we don't get flips until EoD

I'm saying McMenno > Mathblade >Gerry
Suggested modification:
- If both flip town, Uzi shoots TWIE. I shuffle the deck, and everyone does a "no spades" dance.

gerry/mcmenno is very unlikely IMO. I don't see them pushing the scumslip so hard as both scum.
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Post Post #5408 (isolation #230) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:21 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Shuffling and shooting gives a small chance of instaloss. But if we get a directed shot wrong, we'd probably get the lynch wrong for the same reasons. Better to take a protown kill when we can.
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Post Post #5409 (isolation #231) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:22 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Put another way: not shooting is like no lynching. We'd never no lynch in this situation (surely?)
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Post Post #5413 (isolation #232) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:29 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Actually yes - we should definitely 100% direct this. I say McMenno town -> shoot TWIE. McMenno scum -> shoot TWIE anyway?
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Post Post #5417 (isolation #233) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:32 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Kison has some scumtastic cards.
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Post Post #5421 (isolation #234) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Draw card: good for both.
Doc disabler: good for scum, bad for town.
Fruit vendor: good for scum, OK for town (killing claims is more powerful for scum).
Bulletproof: good for scum, OK for town.
5 of clubs: classic Ace-of-Clubs-hider.
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Post Post #5424 (isolation #235) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:38 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh. Damn.
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Post Post #5426 (isolation #236) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:40 am

Post by Fishythefish »

It's quite hard to justify shooting the card cop who is guaranteed to get results.
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Post Post #5432 (isolation #237) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

OK. New plan: shoot Kison, no matter what?
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Post Post #5437 (isolation #238) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:47 am

Post by Fishythefish »

The inventory should be on clubs, for sure.
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Post Post #5439 (isolation #239) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:54 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oooh. I rather like it. If Kison doesn't flip the ace, we need to know whether to carry on looking. We'd feel really silly if it turns out Jackal had a moment of madness and no-shot.
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Post Post #5442 (isolation #240) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:03 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

@mb: my roughly ordered scum list goes LUV, McM, TWIE, Kison, you. Kison isn't that scummy, but a lot of the game is very likely town.
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Post Post #5455 (isolation #241) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:37 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Ah. Yeah. I wish the obvious vig targets didn't keep turning out to be stupid for card reasons. Will think more tomorrow.
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Post Post #5582 (isolation #242) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:21 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Gerry: you can't just opt out as the last person in massclaim. That's giving scum a free pass to not claim if they don't want to.

If gerry doesn't claim, we lynch him today. That is how massclaim works. No relying on vigs, no giving him more time - we lynch.
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Post Post #5586 (isolation #243) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:28 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Look. You might not agree with massclaim. You might think we're a bunch of idiots. But with everyone else in the game claimed, how much damage can your claim do? Once we've decided as a town to massclaim, even if that was a crappy decision, we can't have random exceptions.
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Post Post #5589 (isolation #244) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:33 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Dead - see vote count.
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Post Post #5625 (isolation #245) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5619, gerryoat wrote:VOTE: Dunn

FUCKING LYNCH THIS. MY GOD. THERE HAS TO BE ONE SCUM IN MCMENNO AND DUNN AND MCMENNO WAS OBVIOUS TOWN AT THE END. LYNCH THIS
@gerry: why does there have to be one scum in McMenno and Dunn?
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Post Post #5628 (isolation #246) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:54 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Am I missing anything else interesting outside of the slip that makes any of Dunn, giga, or Grey likely scum? I may be forgetting something, but my impression of the case is:

1) Dunn is scum due to the slip.
2) Giga is scum because Dunn claimed to protect them, and probably wouldn't protect town.
3) Grey is scum for shooting Titus after Dunn slipped it.

Anything you'd add to that?

PEDIT: maybe, if they were off the ball. Why?
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Post Post #5631 (isolation #247) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:56 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Well, we have two claims of the two of spades. Almost certainly the kill was disabled.
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Post Post #5633 (isolation #248) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Ah - the D3 power disabled the kill for both D3 and N3.
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Post Post #5635 (isolation #249) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:59 am

Post by Fishythefish »

a) Yes - see the rules :)
b) No - somebody asked, IIRC
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Post Post #5637 (isolation #250) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I thought 6c might be scum, because scum shot a very likely BP Transcend on D2. I've said that before. Just about possible 6c is fakeclaiming, IMO.
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Post Post #5638 (isolation #251) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

*creature or rb, not Transcend.
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Post Post #5640 (isolation #252) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:03 am

Post by Fishythefish »

It's OK, we did that.
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Post Post #5647 (isolation #253) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, I think McM has a typo.
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Post Post #5651 (isolation #254) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:09 am

Post by Fishythefish »

mathblade's scumteam is remarkably close to my townteam. Though I'd sub Vecna in and leave Dunn on the bench.
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Post Post #5654 (isolation #255) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:14 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Wait, I was expecting one unknown diamond in massclaim. Where is it?
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Post Post #5655 (isolation #256) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:15 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, dave had it. NVM.
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Post Post #5658 (isolation #257) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:21 am

Post by Fishythefish »

It's OK - gerry has claimed!

mathblade, though... IDK. Have you ever seen scum pretend to be as far off the right track as MB seems to be here? I mean, it's literally like he's got his read list upside down. I've never seen this as a scum ploy.
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Post Post #5659 (isolation #258) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:21 am

Post by Fishythefish »

(That could be because my site meta is three years out of date, OFC)
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Post Post #5663 (isolation #259) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Hiding the Ace of Clubs. It's *quite* likely to be hidden as another club, because inventory. The 5 - unconfirmable, unlikely to be counterclaimed - is a good candidate.
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Post Post #5666 (isolation #260) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:34 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5590, gerryoat wrote:ok idc anymore.

KH, KC, 3D

he was town lol. why do you care dunn
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Post Post #5668 (isolation #261) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@giga: Jackal said a good amount after that. I doubt he picked randomly. Vedith is indeed unlikely. I still think the Ace of Clubs protected Maria is by far the most likely explanation (hell, I thought that before Maria flipped scum).

@TWIE: exactly.
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Post Post #5682 (isolation #262) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:46 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5669, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:yeah i think {Kison, LUV, TWIE} is probably our best bet in actually finding the supposed unclaimed Ace of Clubs - vengeful is a terrible fakeclaim and i think mathblade is confirmed gov't?

currently i do believe in it but i'm not lynching in that pool until drealfucker and i decide what type of inventory (clubs in general or ace of clubs only) to do so we can be sure it's not a wild goose chase
Mathblade claimed before Ace of Clubs became a deathclaim, too.
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Post Post #5689 (isolation #263) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Thanks MB. My thoughts
inline

In post 5671, MathBlade wrote:
In post 5628, Fishythefish wrote:Am I missing anything else interesting outside of the slip that makes any of Dunn, giga, or Grey likely scum? I may be forgetting something, but my impression of the case is:

1) Dunn is scum due to the slip.
2) Giga is scum because Dunn claimed to protect them, and probably wouldn't protect town.
3) Grey is scum for shooting Titus after Dunn slipped it.

Anything you'd add to that?

PEDIT: maybe, if they were off the ball. Why?
Number 2 is slightly different.
Giga is scum because Dunn claimed to protect them and I don't see anyone taking a suicide card unless they knew a doctor was going to protect them or had a fear of death and tried to get out as much as possible.
So, you think giga is scum, and was OK with the two of hearts because they had a scumbuddy to protect them? Three problems:

1) If Dunn died, giga was left high and dry.
2) In that case, why on earth would giga claim the two and ask for protection? Because:
3) The two of hearts is really bad for scum, particularly when claimed. Because of the IC power.


Maxous is scum for leading that BS wagon and not reexamining reads and going along with the claim mechanics when Maxous usually doesn't like mechanical crap.
Max is pretty town in our neighbour QT.


Giga furthermore is scum because he is trying to say "I didn't lie to Town about results" as saying he is Town. Karnos did the same thing under my guidance in 1800 and gave a conftown.
Nah, giga is making the very specific point that their confirmed inventory power means they certainly have the card for it. Not claiming to be town at all with that, AFAIC.


Grey is scum not just for the slip but how they have been bosom buddies on wagons. Grey flip flops on occasion but inevitably they end up together.
Why does this make them scum? This isn't a typical scum tactic.


Does it not bug anyone how similar all these lynches are?
Hmmm. Not really. There's a bit of groupthink going on, for sure. But (whether it's right or wrong) I'm pretty damn sure it's townled.
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Post Post #5693 (isolation #264) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:56 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5687, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:that makes zero fucking sense. occam says your reads are abysmal
Now, let's be fair here. Your logic says that MB has at least one error in a 4-man scumlist. If he's 3/4, that's not exactly abysmal :)
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Post Post #5710 (isolation #265) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:11 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5700, MathBlade wrote:My theory is either jackel98 lost interest or shot me or didn't submit a kill yes. This entire town train is based off assumptions and site meta.

The entire reason Giga is so well townread is that scum would never pick that card. Then explain why Giga is still alive.
Sure. The scum kills since giga was exposed have been:
- Transcend, who had a cop clear on them.
- dave, who was widely townread and quite likely to be a card cop about to act.
Not exactly desperation kills. This argument would hold water in a few days' time, but not yet.
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Post Post #5727 (isolation #266) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

IIRC, Jackel basically said he wouldn't kill Titus.
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Post Post #5737 (isolation #267) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:17 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I don't much like the Gerry vig. He's not that scummy.
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Post Post #5738 (isolation #268) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:19 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Though, tbh, I'm slightly struggling for a better idea.
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Post Post #5749 (isolation #269) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:43 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

If we do get 2 town flips, we (Max) should shuffle, to avoid spades tomorrow. Shout now if you disagree.
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Post Post #5751 (isolation #270) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:49 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I also think it's unlikely, rationally. On a gut level, I'm a bit worried.
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Post Post #5874 (isolation #271) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:53 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

No lynching yet. I think I have A Plan, but best not to reveal until the 48 hour mark. And until I've thought about it a bit more.

I'll not have much time for this game tomorrow.
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Post Post #5875 (isolation #272) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:59 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Also, loose voting in what is essentially LYLO is a really bad habit. You can never get a quick scum lynch, but you can get a quick loss, particularly once we get down to 2-3 scum who can coordinate better. Please can we cut that out?

Uzi: why the Spyrex kill?
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Post Post #5879 (isolation #273) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:50 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5858, Kison wrote:
In post 5432, Fishythefish wrote:OK. New plan: shoot Kison, no matter what?
In post 5452, Kison wrote:I'm bulletproof tonight and town, so vigging me isn't the most stellar of plans. Card copping is a better strategy.
Why I would do this as scum? I could have absorbed a vig and not been card copped. Instead I point out that I was bulletproof and volunteer to be copped. How in the hell does that make any sense for scum?

TheWayItScums is a lying scumbag trying to secure a final mislynch. ~ 50/50 odds and even if it doesn't work he has three other fuckin partners.
Not sure I buy this.
1) It's pretty likely someone would have noticed you were BP. And if you kept quiet, you'd be an autolynch.
2) Asking to be investigated probably doesn't make much difference to your odds of being investigated.
So, these are perfectly pro town actions. But they definitely aren't things you wouldn't do as scum.

(Wider thoughts on Kison still pending)
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Post Post #5881 (isolation #274) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:40 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Right. But we'd then need to quick hammer every day. No time for discussion - or even a V/LA. IMO, it will be much harder than normal lylo.
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Post Post #5906 (isolation #275) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:20 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Gerry - TWIE has a cop guilty on Kison. So, we need to decide what to do about that first (we may decide not to lynch either for some reason, but that has to be an explicit decision). There's just no chance we lynch anyone else before we resolve that question.

So the only thing your Dunn vote can do is get quick hammered by scum if you are wrong. There's literally zero chance it helps the town to vote Dunn at this point.
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Post Post #5912 (isolation #276) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:34 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5908, gerryoat wrote:It's you guys faults for lynching 2 towns yesterday, so I really could care less
If you really no longer care about winning because we mislynched yesterday, that's a crappy way to play the game. Mislynches happen. They aren't a reason to have a strop and give up.
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Post Post #5915 (isolation #277) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5913, gerryoat wrote:No, I'm just not sheeping you guys. I'm voting my scumread. I never said i dont wanna win
Ah OK. I thought "I don't care" meant that.

So, voting your scumread becomes a really bad move in LYLO. If everybody does that, one wrong scumread means the scum wins.

But anyway, I'm probably not going to persuade you of anything. Which of TWIE and Kison do you believe here, and why?
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Post Post #5916 (isolation #278) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:31 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@giga: when did drealmer claim in your hood?
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Post Post #5917 (isolation #279) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:38 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5896, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Skimmed the last few pages. Will reread throughly in a bit.

I decided to shoot Spy because I got cold feet, realized he was a town liability due to his hated claim, and because of my tracker result. I kept going back and forth between Dunn and Gerry last night but in the end, I just didn't want to make anymore potential mistakes. I feel like I'm being duped and I don't know where to go.
Who did you track?
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Post Post #5919 (isolation #280) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:46 am

Post by Fishythefish »

My two cents: there was a lot of talk about who to kill yesterday. Not engaging with it, and shooting elsewhere, isn't ideal. But scumLUV could almost certainly have shot town and looked just fine, so I don't think the Spyrex kill is scummy. His reasoning in 5896 is plausible.
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Post Post #5920 (isolation #281) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Dreal's claim being fake would be kind of weird. If there is an Ace of Clubs, we're likely to look for it in Kison/TWIE. Since one is scum, the fakeclaim for dreal doesn't help scum much.

Doesn't make him town, but I believe the claim.
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Post Post #5933 (isolation #282) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Where I am on Kison vs TWIE:

- Kison looks better, outside of the cop result
- The cop result is quite unlikely to be faked in not-quite-lylo
- I need to think harder about both of those to weigh them properly
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Post Post #5934 (isolation #283) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:40 am

Post by Fishythefish »

(And that thinking will be done no later than Saturday, hopefully sooner)
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Post Post #5935 (isolation #284) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:15 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5934, Fishythefish wrote:(And that thinking will be done no later than Saturday, hopefully sooner)
Fuck this guy. I'm sorting this out tonight.
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Post Post #5937 (isolation #285) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:58 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm leaning towards a TWIE lynch.

Kison has been pretty protown throughout the game

Kison is one of a few players who made Maria's lynch a good deal more likely. Bussing happens, but it more often doesn't. Kison's play looks a lot like someone trying to catch scum.

TWIE/Vifam have not

This slot's not really done much, tbh. Vifam claimed to pick cards randomly, which is a townish thing to do in a weird kind of way - surely scum would have been chatting away about draft picks. I don't think it's really the kind of thing people lie about. Outside of that, there's fuck all to get a read based on. I don't at all understand TWIE's claim that Vifam was obvtown day 1.

This result is totally plausible for TWIE as scum, either faking or bussing

scum!TWIE had claimed card cop, and needed to make or fake a result. That had to be on Kison or LUV, as the likely holders of the evil cards. In order of likeliness:

1) scum!TWIE would gladly give a real inno on scum!Kison or scum!LUV.
2) scum!TWIE could give a real guilty on scum!Kison or scum!LUV: a hard bus.
3) scum!TWIE could give a real inno on town!Kison or town!LUV. However, with inventory, narrowing down the lynch pool in "hunt the ace of clubs" would be a real risk. Particularly true of the other of Kison and LUV is scum.
4) scum!TWIE could fake a guilty on town!Kison or town!LUV. This is most likely to lead to their lynch, and with it a very likely scum win.
5) scum!TWIE wouldn't fake an inno on scum!Kison or scum!LUV: both are quite likely lynches in the near future, and TWIE could get autolynched.

If 1) was available, it seems highly likely the approach scum would take. If not (which is quite likely), 2, 3 and 4 all seem plausible options. So I don't see the guilty from TWIE as unlikely either as a lie or as a bus.

It's interesting that the result is the six, not the ace. Makes sense for scum if either a) it's a real result and a bus, or b) LUV holds the ace, and TWIE doesn't want to be linked there. The latter I find particularly plausible.
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Post Post #5944 (isolation #286) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5939, TheWayItEnds wrote:
In post 5937, Fishythefish wrote:I'm leaning towards a TWIE lynch.

Kison has been pretty protown throughout the game

Kison is one of a few players who made Maria's lynch a good deal more likely. Bussing happens, but it more often doesn't. Kison's play looks a lot like someone trying to catch scum.

TWIE/Vifam have not

This slot's not really done much, tbh. Vifam claimed to pick cards randomly, which is a townish thing to do in a weird kind of way - surely scum would have been chatting away about draft picks. I don't think it's really the kind of thing people lie about. Outside of that, there's fuck all to get a read based on. I don't at all understand TWIE's claim that Vifam was obvtown day 1.
oh cool.

you're an idiot.
Care to explain?
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Post Post #5948 (isolation #287) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, thanks. I get it now.
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Post Post #5949 (isolation #288) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:43 am

Post by Fishythefish »

But really - I'd like to know why you think it's idiotic. Because I disagree.
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Post Post #5951 (isolation #289) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:55 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Incidentally, I said I had A Plan.

Well, I'm not sure I do, but no harm sharing in case someone can make something of it.

Kison claims to be a watcher tonight. Maxous is a neighbouriser tonight. We could:
- Pick a very likely townie, X.
- Have Kison watch them.
- Have Max flip a coin, and decide whether to neighbourise them.
- Make Kison declare whether Max did in fact visit them.
If
X and Max are both town, Kison only has a coinflip to guess whether the visit happened. So we get loads of information if Kison guesses wrong; and very little if he guesses right.
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Post Post #5954 (isolation #290) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5952, TheWayItEnds wrote:loads of information like kison doesnt have a 5c.

because we already know he has the 6c?

thats fucking brilliant.
Oh come on don't do that thing where you pretend everyone knows your information is true. Obviously, you learn nothing from this plan. But everyone else in the game might. Really, your whole thing of "just say you are town and Kison is scum over and over" is super annoying.
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Post Post #5957 (isolation #291) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:04 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@two up: Please humour me, then, and explain like you would to someone who doesn't quite have a brain but is really trying.
@one up: very, very bad. You basically need the whole town to have good reads every day, right out the gate.
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Post Post #5958 (isolation #292) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:06 am

Post by Fishythefish »

(particularly, ofc, because we have gerry v Dunn, and I'm pretty sure they are both town. At this point, I'm basically reduced to hoping I'm wrong on that one)
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Post Post #5961 (isolation #293) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:15 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You would quite likely bus if Kison and Uzi were
both
scum. An inno on one of them is too likely to be countered by inventory.

A real inno on town!Kison or town!Luv I've said is unlikely (and obviously didn't happen); but again might have been an option because you were afraid of being countered by inventory.

For a scum card cop last night, the decision of what to claim was
hard
.
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Post Post #5962 (isolation #294) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:18 am

Post by Fishythefish »

... though actually, you'd clearly bus the ace of clubs, not the six.
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Post Post #5965 (isolation #295) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:24 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5960, TheWayItEnds wrote:because kisons list of things is.

hey look at the things that i was right about.
and look im efforting.

like you do understand how an informed minority works right?

whereas the counterpoints are, hey look. TWIE didnt know the alignment of everyone in the game like i did. he must be scum.
because that makes sense.
no note that i also didnt want menno.
puts "didnt vote day 5" as a negative. i didnt contribute to either day 5 mislynches and the note here is, yeah but its bad that he didnt vote.

its like the most biased way you can attampt to frame these situations and i really didnt think it warranted a response other than a yawning smiley (which i still desperately need kison)
Being biased against someone who is in a dipole with you is not a mark against you.

I did not cite Kison's post, and my opinions of Kison as mild town are nothing new. I don't find it hugely convincing.

----

Yeah, see my last post; I now don't think all three scum is plausible.
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Post Post #5967 (isolation #296) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:27 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5966, TheWayItEnds wrote:
In post 5965, Fishythefish wrote:Being biased against someone who is in a dipole with you is not a mark against you.
the way you argue it is.
How?

---

Do you think Uzi is basically confirmed Ace of Clubs scum?
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Post Post #5971 (isolation #297) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:41 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5968, TheWayItEnds wrote:because as town if i, and the person im 1v1ing both did something i would leave that out of the argument.

i would not bring it up as a positive for me, and spin it as a negative for them.

its a disingenuous argument.

--

no.
Knowing someone is scum leads to pretty epic confirmation bias. In fact, town and scum motivations in Kison's situation are basically exactly aligned. Making it pretty damn hard to read.

---

What are the other options for the ace of clubs?
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Post Post #5973 (isolation #298) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:44 am

Post by Fishythefish »

IDK. What would clubs have told us? I'm guessing, that the suits have been truthfully claimed.

Thinking back now, I kinda wish we'd inventoried whichever club Uzi claims to have. Bet there are lots of them in the deck.

You can quote the PT a bit (checked with the mod to post Dunn's "let's kill Titus"). How much is not clearly defined AFAIK.
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Post Post #5979 (isolation #299) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5975, TheWayItEnds wrote:
In post 5971, Fishythefish wrote:Knowing someone is scum leads to pretty epic confirmation bias. In fact, town and scum motivations in Kison's situation are basically exactly aligned. Making it pretty damn hard to read.
this is not remotely true. the mindset is whats different.
Town thinks: TWIE is confirmed scum. I must prove it.
Scum thinks: TWIE is town. I must prove he's scum.

They come at it from a different angle, but both must find anything they can that proves TWIE is scum. Maybe there's a difference, but I think it's going to lead to a pretty similar outcome. If anything, the town version's arguments might be
worse
; when they find something that looks kinda scummy, they know the opponent is scum, so have no real reason to examine it critically.

Yeah, I should think more about non-club hidey holes, actually. On that now.
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Post Post #5982 (isolation #300) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:57 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I think there are very few Ace options:

-Grey-
- early claim
gerryoat
Fishythefish
- all confirmed
Kison
Maxous
- early hood claim
drealmerz7
- early hood claim
Vecna
- early hood claim
Dunnstral
- all confirmed
Lil Uzi Vert
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Post Post #5983 (isolation #301) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

gerry claims KH and KC. Two kings with active night powers? Would be a pretty weird draw.

The KC is vengeful, not a fakeclaim. I guess the KH could be fake.
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Post Post #5984 (isolation #302) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:04 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Some combination of TWIE and myself basically has me talked round to a Kison lynch. I'm struggling to see a 6-of-clubs-fake while there's the ace loose in the world. But I'm going to sleep on it.
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Post Post #5991 (isolation #303) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:14 am

Post by Fishythefish »

On play in a 1v1: this sounds like a playstyle thing. If you produced a guilty on me, I would sure as hell try to show you were likely scum, as any alignment.

I'm struggling past LUV and Kison/TWIE for the scumteam. I'm planning to die before we get to that point, so that's OK.
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Post Post #5994 (isolation #304) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:17 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Hopefully also the mods will be inclined to mercy given the fairly small difference those quotes make to the game.
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Post Post #5995 (isolation #305) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:21 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I keep needing this and struggling to find it, so plonking it in my ISO:
77 - -Grey- - Kd, 8h, 10h
5 - gerryoat KH, KC, 3D
5 - Fishythefish 4c, Js (gone), 2c (gone)
11 - Kison - Ks, 5c, 4h
13 - Maxous - Ah, 3h, 5h
17 - drealmerz7 - 9h, 3h
2 - Vecna - Ad, 6d
2 - Dunnstral - 2d, 4s, 7h
12 - Lil Uzi Vert - Qh, 9s, 7c
12 - TWIE 5c, 9c (missed 8s)
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Post Post #5997 (isolation #306) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:23 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah. I know what is :)

I'm only really interested in the drafting.
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Post Post #6014 (isolation #307) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

[cross-posted, will think about your post now Kison]

IMO, the only likely scum-TWIE scenario is where LUV has the Ace of Clubs. If TWIE holds the Ace, he fakeclaims the Ace not the 6. The only other candidate is gerry, but gerry a) is town and b) doesn't really have likely AoC-hiders.

If TWIE is town, LUV still has the ace of clubs.

So, LUV has the ace of clubs. Shall we just lynch LUV? Maybe TWIE/Kison should be resolved, but:
- We have a not-dreadful chance to resolve it tonight with watcher shenanigans.
- Resolving it with the power of fruit works very well. Even if we get it wrong, it doesn't cost a lynch. It's not that unlikely to happen, actually, if we leave them both alive until the end.
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Post Post #6015 (isolation #308) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6013, Kison wrote:I thought about it some more last night & would like to know why this is deterring you. We know the AC is in the game. It's probably simply that both are in the game and he's holding the 6C while someone else has the AC. Saying I have the card he in fact has is the safe play: if the AC holder died before this was resolved, either via lynching outside the two of us or by the shuffle everyone was expecting(it was the plan going into night) yielding a trump that, say, activated Grey's vig, it would disqualify the fake result against me had he said I had the AC.
Yeah, I've gone back to thinking TWIE-scum with the ace elsewhere (almost certainly Uzi) works just fine. TWIE in this scenario might or might not hold the 6C. Either way, I think the result he claimed is very plausible for scum having to claim a card cop.
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Post Post #6018 (isolation #309) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:49 am

Post by Fishythefish »

No, no, no, no, no. Gerry is town. And even if he wasn't, he'd be an outside bet for the AoC.
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Post Post #6020 (isolation #310) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Don't leave me hanging... what on earth could you think gerry is?
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Post Post #6027 (isolation #311) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:17 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Why? As scum with a non-Kison partner with the ace, what would you have done?
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Post Post #6032 (isolation #312) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:22 am

Post by Fishythefish »

The time the claim of the six makes sense is if you have a partner with the ace. If that partner dies after you claim the ace, you are instantly outed as scum. That seems like a fairly big risk.

(Actually, there is some weird-but-actually-quite-good evidence of a d2 strongman)
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Post Post #6035 (isolation #313) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:26 am

Post by Fishythefish »

If your fake guilty doesn't result in a lynch. Bleh, maybe that's really really unlikely and you wouldn't give a fig about it.
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Post Post #6036 (isolation #314) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:26 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6032, Fishythefish wrote:(Actually, there is some weird-but-actually-quite-good evidence of a d2 strongman)
Expanding on this - we now know that on D2 scum shot someone who, to scum, was 50% likely to be BP. Pretty likely they had a strongman.
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Post Post #6040 (isolation #315) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:34 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You say you'd have claimed Kison had the Ace not the six and scum. Maybe that's true. However, there's a bit of WIFOM going on here. You might think this argument is easier to swing; and really, that would be the only thing you'd think about when choosing your fakeclaim.
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Post Post #6043 (isolation #316) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You are arguing that your claim must be real because it's less plausible than another claim you could have made.

This is an argument you could have planned to make.
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Post Post #6044 (isolation #317) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:40 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You are saying that your claim is more plausible because you claimed the six not the ace.

As scum, the only thing you would have cared about is how plausible your claim is.

By that logic, the six was the better scum claim.
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Post Post #6046 (isolation #318) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

The shuffle thing doesn't hold water; TWIE claimed after the no-shuffle was revealed. The lynch outside the dipole seems unlikely to influence scum much; all the more so with the ace claim.
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Post Post #6050 (isolation #319) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:02 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6048, Kison wrote:You yourself proposed resolving this later. Why do you think scum wouldn't consider that possibility? The safe play is the card that the guy making the fake claim is holding, and the 6C is just as believable as the AC. Again, look how quickly I was bandwagoned earlier.
After TWIE's claim, it's probably 90+% chance the lynch is between you two. I'd quite like it elsewhere, but my odds of getting that are crappy. If the claim was AC, we'd be even less likely to look elsewhere.

I agree that the 6C is as believable a claim as the AC (or certainly, that there's not a big gap).
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Post Post #6051 (isolation #320) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:04 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

TWIE gives me such a gut town feel when we argue in real time.
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Post Post #6067 (isolation #321) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:59 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6062, TheWayItEnds wrote:Or me.


But I'm not sitting around and waiting to lose on 4c
If town, getting fruited isn't bad for you here. We're in MYL48, not LYL48, so a town kill which outs a scum is a good thing. This is the main reason to consider a lynch outside the dipole (*cough* LUV *cough*).
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Post Post #6069 (isolation #322) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:13 am

Post by Fishythefish »

gerry
- I'm trying to work out where your scumread on Dunn comes from. Dunn's slip has been pretty roundly discredited:
1) Dunn uses language like "let's kill Titus" regularly to mean "let's lynch Titus".
2) Dunn has just finished a game using funny coloured text to make sure he doesn't cross post in private topics. Seems highly likely he'd do that here. (
Dunn
, could you give us a link for that?)
Do you agree that, whatever Dunn's alignment, his hood post probably wasn't a slip? What are your other reasons for thinking Dunn is scum?
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Post Post #6078 (isolation #323) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

LUV: which would you lynch between Kison and TWIE?
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Post Post #6079 (isolation #324) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:47 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 5231, Dunnstral wrote:I'd be ok with lynching gerry too, he hasn't been playing the game at all except to tunnel on me and he knew I had the 2 of diamonds the whole time yet doesn't want to claim his own cards
Dunn - how did you get from this to such certainty on gerry? Basically nothing has changed.

Also, where are you on TWIE/Kison?
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Post Post #6085 (isolation #325) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:13 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

We should lynch LUV today.
He has the ace of clubs. He's scum - much more so than the 50% chance we have in Kison/TWIE. We have a chance (even if it's small) to confirm KisonScum tonight. If Kison or TWIE gets offed by a vig or fruit vendor, that's just fine - we can afford to lose a town to a non-lynch.

dreal, Max, Vecna
- are you with me?
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Post Post #6088 (isolation #326) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:25 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, sorry. Actually, you should have been on that list (which is the "probtown, and not hopelessly tunnelled" list). You in?
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Post Post #6090 (isolation #327) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:29 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Up for a LUV lynch (4) - Fishy, dreal, Grey, Max.
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Post Post #6093 (isolation #328) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:35 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

The only reason I'm not voting yet is that Vecna will be very pissed off if we quicklynch again in his absence :)
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Post Post #6112 (isolation #329) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

VOTE: LUV
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Post Post #6113 (isolation #330) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:28 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Almost a pity that LUV scumslipped with his fakeclaim. We could have got much more info out of a more normal lynch. But good catch, Vecna.
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Post Post #6115 (isolation #331) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:30 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In what world is town doing badly a reason to lie about night actions?
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Post Post #6117 (isolation #332) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:36 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I mean, I guess I can see that as a coherent reason to refuse to give a tracker result. But not to lie and say you tracked someone who was dead at the time :P

Where have scum used information effectively, except in shooting dave (which I'll agree was a great play)?
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Post Post #6122 (isolation #333) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:16 am

Post by Fishythefish »

We have rather better than a cop guilty. We have scum caught in a crappy lie. You can't possibly believe that we are going to lynch gerry today.
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Post Post #6124 (isolation #334) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:17 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6099, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 6079, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 5231, Dunnstral wrote:I'd be ok with lynching gerry too, he hasn't been playing the game at all except to tunnel on me and he knew I had the 2 of diamonds the whole time yet doesn't want to claim his own cards
Dunn - how did you get from this to such certainty on gerry? Basically nothing has changed.

Also, where are you on TWIE/Kison?
mathblade was alive
Why did that make such a big difference to your read on gerry?
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Post Post #6125 (isolation #335) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:19 am

Post by Fishythefish »

We're not going to struggle for Uzi-voters; no way are scum bold enough not to join in. It's just a matter of whether we wait a couple of days or not.
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Post Post #6127 (isolation #336) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:34 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Do you really think Gerry needs lynching more than someone who's just been caught lying about their actions? If so, why?
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Post Post #6129 (isolation #337) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Not wanting to lynch caught scum is not high on my list of scumtells
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Post Post #6131 (isolation #338) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:47 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Interesting. I wouldn't think scum are feeling quite secure enough to get overconfident. Particularly if Dunn is scum.

Anyway, I'm going to sleep, and if uzi is still alive when I wake I'll be disappointed.
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Post Post #6133 (isolation #339) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:54 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

One is caught, another is in a 1v1, and Dunn (scum in this scenario) is high up a few scumlists.
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Post Post #6137 (isolation #340) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:08 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Oh, yes! Thanks for the reminder.

IMO, we have all the hoods we need. I think I'm the most trusted player in the game. I say Kison watches me, and Max possibly re-neighbourises me.
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Post Post #6140 (isolation #341) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:36 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

OK then. Who would your prefer?
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Post Post #6146 (isolation #342) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:57 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah. I'll admit it's a pretty long shot, but there's a chance we can prove Kison is scum
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Post Post #6148 (isolation #343) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:07 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

If anyone says they were "just messing around" that's an autolynch.

We make Kison declare - because TWIE being a watcher is less important (TWIE
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have the 5c and still this be a fake result). Actually, I wasn't even thinking of asking TWIE to claim. After Kison's claim, TWIE's becomes pretty meaningless.

I agree that there's a fairly high chance we learn nothing at all here.
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Post Post #6151 (isolation #344) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:28 am

Post by Fishythefish »

By my reading of the rules as written, we get another hood together.
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Post Post #6160 (isolation #345) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:38 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Grey holds the 8 of hearts. Grey should, I think, shoot Kison. Grey's shot should absolutely be directed - an undirected shot is an autolynch.
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Post Post #6161 (isolation #346) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:41 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Yeah, it's gerry or Kison (holders of royalty). So, it's Kison. Resolves the dipole, might well be scum, and even if wrong we are still in the game with a double lynch including TWIE.
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Post Post #6164 (isolation #347) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:55 am

Post by Fishythefish »

TL;DR: drealmer is 100% town. If drealmer is not town and we lose the game because of it, I will buy a deck of mafiascum cards, select the cards drealmer holds, and eat them.


I might die in 48 hours time, so I think this needs saying now. drealmer neighbourised me yesterday (note for Max: about an hour after I told you he hadn't :P).

In that neighbourhood, drealmer is obviously town. He's very clearly trying extremely hard to win this for the town. The Uzi lynch yesterday was his idea (I likely wouldn't have pushed it without him). Think of the most obviously town scumhunting display you have seen. drealmer is about that townish.

This hasn't quite carried through to the thread. The reasons are pretty clear to me; he feels less inhibited in a neighbourhood with one friendly, responsive player to talk to, who he reads as obvtown. In this thread, where the players are nearly half scum, and it's quite hard to get the town on board with ideas, he struggles to get as much traction (his word).

So, I know nobody listens to a dead townie. But if I die, please remember: I can see posts that you can't see. I don't throw around super strong townreads lightly; this is the strongest townread I can imagine based on posting alone. drealmer is town, and if you lynch him, you'll regret it.
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Post Post #6167 (isolation #348) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6162, TheWayItEnds wrote:scum kill plus grey shooting town is LYLO btw.

no stupid voting today
This times ten. If Grey is scum, a quickhammered lynch can lose us the game; where otherwise we get to force Grey's shot (or out him as scum), and can't possibly lose today.

In fact, to keep it simple: there's literally no reason anyone should be voting before the 48 hour mark.
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Post Post #6174 (isolation #349) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:41 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I don't like the Dunn/gerry lynch. It's pretty damn likely they are both town, IMO.
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Post Post #6176 (isolation #350) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:47 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Hmmm. I'm struggling to understand Dunn's play yesterday as town *or* as scum.
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Post Post #6179 (isolation #351) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:53 am

Post by Fishythefish »

OTOH, the way Kison repeatedly tried to lynch Uzi looks pretty good for Kison's slot :)

If it wasn't for the whole royalty vig thing, I'd probably be gunning to lynch TWIE not Kison.

Pedit: I reckon repeated high numbers are a tad unlikely to be scum together. WIFOM, scum might not even discuss so as not to give information, etc. - so not a strong effect.
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Post Post #6181 (isolation #352) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:02 am

Post by Fishythefish »

OK. Since I think the plan here is clear (shoot Kison in the face), I'll not wade through the shitstorm that was day 1 any more times, but instead just feel slightly comforted that TWIE is more likely town than before :)
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Post Post #6183 (isolation #353) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:23 am

Post by Fishythefish »

If it gets worse than that, remind me not to play Day 1 any more.

Yeah, I agree on Dunn.

Dunn:
I don't really get where you were coming from yesterday. You said that gerry needed to die so much that a cop guilty wouldn't make you vote elsewhere. Why? I don't really see anything in your posting to give you that strong a read on gerry.
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Post Post #6209 (isolation #354) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:00 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Dunn is at least correct that of all the fucking stupid votes, gerry is the least fucking stupid. But still, it's fucking stupid. If gerry is town, Kison is town, and grey is scum:

- If you vote gerry now, scum can quickhammer, shoot Kison, and win
- If you wait, Kison flips town. We lynch TWIE first (as confirmed scum), then gerry (or someone else), and are still alive in 3v2.
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Post Post #6215 (isolation #355) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:31 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Dunn: No, gerry really isn't voting for you.

@Vecna: I'm not clear on the quoting rules. I don't think there's any problem with doing it in the thread; I'll give an idea of it before the 48 hour mark.
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Post Post #6217 (isolation #356) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:36 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Vecna: I don't think your Option 2 (shoot gerry) is sensible - with the TWIE/Kison situation, Kison is much the better kill. I certainly don't think Grey should shoot without direction.

After Kison is down - I agree, though with a slightly heavy heart, that Dunn and gerry are high on the lynch menu. Though not necessarily both of them, since it's harder to tunnel on someone who's dead.

BTW, I've pointed out something I expect you already know through our chain.
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Post Post #6221 (isolation #357) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Show me the post where gerry is voting for you. Or unvote.

Even if you are never going to vote for anyone but gerry, this is not a time to be voting. Really. Even if you are both town, and will never vote anyone else, we are not lost - unless you vote now.
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Post Post #6225 (isolation #358) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:40 am

Post by Fishythefish »

What the hell? Unvote! Both of you! We've not spent 250 pages to lose like this! Replace out if you don't care! I do care!
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Post Post #6229 (isolation #359) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:42 am

Post by Fishythefish »

You can vote each other all you like in 48 hours time. Until the kills come in, voting each other risks the game for no reason. It's not the right play for town even if you are right about everything.
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Post Post #6237 (isolation #360) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:49 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6227, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 6225, Fishythefish wrote:What the hell? Unvote! Both of you! We've not spent 250 pages to lose like this! Replace out if you don't care! I do care!
Not gonna flinch from gerry bluffing. Tell me who the scum team is if it's not me or gerry.
This is not about who's scum, it's about the mechanics of when we lynch. Right now, Grey has to shoot Kison, or get lynched. If we have a lynch before 48 hours, scum!Grey gets to shoot at will.

As for a team without you or gerry - there are lots of options. None of them stand out as obviously better than the others, but any of Kison/TWIE/Max/Vecna/Grey could plausibly be scum. There's 10 scumteams right there, though some are weirder than others. If you want just one - Kison/Max/Grey.
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Post Post #6286 (isolation #361) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:06 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Dunn: drealmer is super duper uber town in our QT; I'll quote/paraphrase some tomorrow.

Grey: you know you have to pm the mod, right? :-)
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Post Post #6295 (isolation #362) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:52 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6290, Dunnstral wrote:Actually, we can also talk about TWIE. I don't like that people are assuming he's confirmed town if kison flips scum. Because he's not, and bussing isn't all that unlikely in this scenario
If they are both scum, TWIE bussed when he had a safer bus on Uzi. I can just about see it though - if the scumteam decided that those three were all in such trouble that it was worth losing uzi and Kison for TWIE looking super town.

@Vecna - I pointed out something possibly interesting to Max a little while ago, to pass on to you, which I don't think belongs in the main thread just yet. I suspect it's something you're already on top of.
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Post Post #6302 (isolation #363) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:26 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 1, Quipla wrote:
>
The Rules - they are long, but please read them!

...
9)
However, to prevent the start of Day phases from being a race to the trigger, Day's will have a 48-hour Morning period where any action submitted during this time will resolve simultaneously at the 48 hour mark of the day. From then on, actions submitted will resolve per timestamp.
...
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Post Post #6344 (isolation #364) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:07 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Grey. You're a royalty vig. TWIE doesn't have any royalty.
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Post Post #6346 (isolation #365) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:09 am

Post by Fishythefish »

It would be, but 48 hours is not up. Kison is still getting shot (or we will indeed lynch Grey)
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Post Post #6348 (isolation #366) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:11 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Specifically, Kison.
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Post Post #6355 (isolation #367) » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:17 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

Grey is probably joking. Hope so, anyway.

I said I'd give more detail on why dreamler is town in our hood. I don't time to do it any justice tonight - maybe tomorrow morning. I doubt I'm dieing anyway, so it'll be fine. And if I do die - please trust me on this.
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Post Post #6434 (isolation #368) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:05 am

Post by Fishythefish »

So, we clearly need to sort out Dunn vs gerry. Which is a pity, because neither of them looks very scummy. I'm inclined to say we lynch gerry.

Dunn has rather a lot of concrete things going for him.
- He saved giga, and made a very protown revive to me. Scum with a fear of massclaim could do that, but unlikely.
- 2 of diamonds would have been a crappy scum pick. Also, Dunn pointed this out when I was questioning whether the 2 of diamonds was town. In my experience, that's something that comes from town who feels they've done something very townish and deserve some credit for it.
- The triple neighbourhood play seems more likely for town than scum.
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Post Post #6435 (isolation #369) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:10 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6415, Maxous wrote:i'm mulling over my Fishy read tbh.

his reaction to maria wasn't that great actually.

He did hard-push Uzi instead of Kison yesterday which would give him town-points though.

and his neighbourhood stuff with me has been quite town including his card-rigging for cop investigations.
My reaction to maria: this is one of those times you look back at a scum wagon and think "hey, I can easily see scum doing what I did here. That's a pity". On the other side of things - is there anything on my maria reaction you think is unlikely from me as town and would like explained?

To blow my own trumpet a little: my card-rigging also prevented a scum kill, and I've been trying quite hard to lynch Uzi since day 1.
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Post Post #6440 (isolation #370) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:51 am

Post by Fishythefish »

@Vecna: I think Grey is a poor lynch today. His vig powers remain good until LYLO (as they can be directed), which is a way off yet; worst case tomorrow is 4v2, where we can still direct vig shots. He is also our double-lynch enabler whenever we hit Diamonds.

@drealmer: I'm pretty keen on card information over play (and so far, feel vindicated). In general, scum don't like to hand the town advantages, and the towncred they get for doing so isn't sufficient compensation.

Having said that, your confidence on badtowngerry gives me pause, as I'm not good at reading play like gerry's myself. For why it would make sense as scum - it would be trying to emulate gerry's town play by going after one target.
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Post Post #6443 (isolation #371) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:09 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Remember, it's not like scum!gerry has to constantly put up an amazing front. If you decide to go all out for someone, and not concentrate on anything else, it will quickly become natural and self-reinforcing.

Max is probably my preferred lynch outside gerry and Dunn. Which is pure PoE - he's not scummy, but Vecna/you/Grey/TWIE are less likely still.

@Vecna: quite right, got my numbers wrong. I'll think more about whether Grey is scum.
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Post Post #6447 (isolation #372) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:45 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I don't really think grey is scum.

- kraska was pretty townish
- The claim after the Titus kill felt like town. It could be a very bold scum play, but I'd be surprised.
- King of Diamonds is a super town pick.

I'm on tentahooks for that extra reason through the hood chain, though.
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Post Post #6466 (isolation #373) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:22 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6448, Maxous wrote:@fishy: i don't see your cards argument...who is left in the game that has pro-scum cards?
By "card information", I meant cards and their resulting actions. Many people in the game have taken some pretty protown actions (Dunn, Vecna) and/or attempted to take cards that make more sense for town (Dunn, you, drealmer, Grey). This figures quite heavily in my reads.
In post 6450, Dunnstral wrote:I'm strongly considering that if gerry is town, it might be fishy as scum
Why?
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Post Post #6468 (isolation #374) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:25 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6467, gerryoat wrote:
In post 6452, gerryoat wrote:Hey. Why would i send my scumbuddy fruit? Like I did to lil uzi. Why would Maria try and fake meta about me. This is literally elementary school logic
fishy why dont you reply to this
Yeah, good idea.

Sending a scumbuddy fruit: a wasted action, but no danger of killing them. Meh.
Maria faking meta on you: sounds... interesting. I think you made a post a few pages ago spelling that kind of thing out, and I think I failed to read it properly. Will do so now.
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Post Post #6476 (isolation #375) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:42 am

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Looking at this post on gerry's innocence. Actually, it's quite convincing. gerry's interactions with Maria don't feel like scum-on-scum action. Uzi, less so.
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Post Post #6477 (isolation #376) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:43 am

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In post 6470, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 6466, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 6448, Maxous wrote:@fishy: i don't see your cards argument...who is left in the game that has pro-scum cards?
By "card information", I meant cards and their resulting actions. Many people in the game have taken some pretty protown actions (Dunn, Vecna) and/or attempted to take cards that make more sense for town (Dunn, you, drealmer, Grey). This figures quite heavily in my reads.
In post 6450, Dunnstral wrote:I'm strongly considering that if gerry is town, it might be fishy as scum
Why?
Just a feeling... and what you're pushing right now

and a bit of poe
OK. If you work out where that feeling comes from, I'd like to know. I think I've played a pretty damn town game in just about every way.

What am I pushing right now, and why is it scummy?
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Post Post #6478 (isolation #377) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:44 am

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In post 6473, Maxous wrote:yeah but that's 7 out of 8 players
at least one of them has to be scum so the cards thing will only go so far.

:shrug:
Oh, sure. Some of these are much stronger than others, though. Particularly, Dunn's actions and taking the king of diamonds are very much better for town than scum.
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Post Post #6480 (isolation #378) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:03 am

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Yeah. You were death-tunnelled on each other, and we can't have deathtunnelling in LYLO - do you disagree? If you've stopped that, that's great.

My reads kind of go from super-town to mildly-town at the moment. If there was a slot I knew nothing about, I'd gladly PoE lynch it. My rough ordering is:

Super-town

drealmer, Vecna

Town

Dunn, Grey, TWIE

Mildly town, which I guess means scum

gerry, Max

I'm not feeling very inspired by any of that, though. The problem is, a PoEish lynch doesn't tell you much if you get it wrong.
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Post Post #6511 (isolation #379) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:53 am

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@Vecna: I kind of think Max is scum due to a secret we know and stuff that's happened today. I think you've interpreted the same things as pointing to Grey, but I think they point fairly squarely at Max - particularly as Kison was V/LA today. Thoughts?

I find the Dunn wagon underwhelming in case and in composition.

VOTE: gerry
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Post Post #6514 (isolation #380) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:06 am

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dreal: that's fine. I'm definitely not in "I'm right, follow me!" mode. But between Dunn looking pretty town, and the dodgy company you are keeping on that wagon, I'm not keen on it.

gerry: your play on Uzi doesn't really seem unlikely from scum-on-scum. The play with Maria does, a bit. Particularly you calling her out for "fake meta"; that kind of strong interaction isn't something I'd normally expect to be bussing. But it's definitely not something that means you "can't" be scum together.
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Post Post #6518 (isolation #381) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:06 am

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I disagree that it's impossible for you to be teamed. Maria giving some dodgy meta on you, and you calling it dodgy, could both happen just fine if you are both scum.

@Max: I think you and gerry are about equally likely scum. gerry is a better lynch for a couple of other reason - a) if town, he's very likely indeed to screw up LYLO, and b) there are things that could happen which would affect my read on you.
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Post Post #6528 (isolation #382) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:25 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6521, gerryoat wrote:I scumread all 3 mafia. so how exactly am i likely to fuck up?
You may have scum read all three mafia - but you did nothing to help kill a single one of them, due to your tunnelling on Dunn. I see no reason to think you'll be much more reasonable even if Dunn is lynched.

Actually, you can help there - what are your reads on people other than Dunn? Why is Grey scum (if Dunn is town, say)? (Pedit: ninja'd)

---

Dunn (and others) - you don't like my play today. I'm not very surprised - my reads are a bit weak atm, and I realise that makes my play pretty uninspired. What do you think of my play in the whole game up to Kison being shot?
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Post Post #6532 (isolation #383) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:42 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6529, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 6528, Fishythefish wrote:What do you think of my play in the whole game up to Kison being shot?
I think I mentioned somewhere that I could be overlooking you _ I initially thought you were towny but the suspect pool is growing smaller
That doesn't really answer my question. I've done quite a lot in this game, both in the thread and in actions. Is it scummy?
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Post Post #6567 (isolation #384) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:07 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6533, Dunnstral wrote:What cards did you revive again?
I rigged the deck, rather than revived. I rigged:
- The Jack of Spades (rigged D1, active N1 - meant to guarantee sane cope investigations. There was one - cleared Transcend,)
- The Two of Clubs (rigged N2, active D3 - meant to prevent a scumkill. Did so.)
In post 6558, drealmerz7 wrote:fishy, if you had to pick one of vecna or dunnstral as scum, who do you think? are both of the strong TRs they generate for you similar, and, if comparable, which is stronger?
I'd pick Dunnstral.
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Post Post #6719 (isolation #385) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:19 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm surprised by TWIE's death. Vecna, are you happy to claim now?

I need to throw a good chunk of time at this game to get myself back into it. That might be today, but if not will definitely be tomorrow.
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Post Post #6762 (isolation #386) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:20 pm

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To clarify a minor point: I didn't know who Vecna was watching (my best guess would have been Grey; that's the potential watch I was getting excited about in the hood)

I'm gonna shuffle the deck. This does nothing, except in the edge case where Vecna is scum and used card spy today.
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Post Post #6764 (isolation #387) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:22 pm

Post by Fishythefish »

I BELIEVE IN THE HEART OF THE CARDS
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Post Post #6781 (isolation #388) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:04 am

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There's nothing special about the 24hr mark, unless I've missed something? We can lynch just fine after it.

The kill is doing my head in.

The elephant in the room was that Lights Out Lynching is very dangerous with only one Kd around. Scum could shoot Grey only if they are up for the lynch; so the second lynch can't be scum. It's like a hidden governor power.

That points to Grey or Max being scum (with Max being scared of the watcher). But that still doesn't explain killing TWIE over someone like Vecna. Seems a really weird choice.
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Post Post #6784 (isolation #389) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:08 am

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Eh. Do scum really care about their own reads when killing? TWIE was a way easier LYLO opponent than Vecna, I'd say.
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Post Post #6786 (isolation #390) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:10 am

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*was. And, will be.
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Post Post #6794 (isolation #391) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:37 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6788, Vecna wrote:Maybe scum just really like the current balance and where things are going and dont wanna interfere
Enough to not care about the second lynch? I doubt it. There's a large pool of possible second lynches here.
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Post Post #6795 (isolation #392) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:39 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I suppose I can imagine this being a desperate play to change *something* and save Dunn. But - still doesn't explain who was killed.
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Post Post #6803 (isolation #393) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:44 am

Post by Fishythefish »

In post 6800, Vecna wrote:
In post 6794, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 6788, Vecna wrote:Maybe scum just really like the current balance and where things are going and dont wanna interfere
Enough to not care about the second lynch? I doubt it. There's a large pool of possible second lynches here.
Not anymore as far as im concerned
What do you mean?

I meant that if you think of possible second lynches from where everyone is, I think you'd say something like Grey, Gerry, Max, and probably me these days. Any scum in there (which I'd bet there is) and they'd think twice before allowing a double lynch.
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Post Post #6846 (isolation #394) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:10 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm really sure this is between Max and Grey. I'm rereading them hard now. gerry is the other person I can see as scum, but lynching gerry before Dunn flips would be silly.
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Post Post #6848 (isolation #395) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:31 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Grey

Vecna's case on Grey is OK.
1) Lights Out Lynching, but no kill on Grey. This is a good point. MaxScum also explains it quite well, although even then the scum
about to be lynched
could still shoot Grey to derail it.
2) Vigging Titus. This would have been a great kill for scum. I still find the kill-then-claim thing an unlikely scumplay, though. I've rarely (never?) seen such brazen scumplay at that sort of stage of the game.
3) Grey's diversion to Vecna. Meh. No real scum motivation.
4) Alpha vig and scum shooting at the top - maybe. rb and Creature weren't weird kills otherwise, but do fit even better with GreyScum.

On the other side of the equation:
1) Grey took the King of Diamonds. This card is so full of town it's ridiculous. Loverise is bad, but much worse for scum. LoL is really crap in scum hands, and looks good in town hands (it can actually be something of a trap with scum shooting at it, but I suspect most or all of us missed that at draft time).
2) Yeah, I really don't think kraska was scum. Posts that jumped out include:
- post 266.
I just can't really imagine writing, as scum, a post with a sentence where all three people I mention are scum. In general, very early on kraska interacts a lot with scum.
- 2770. It's a bit of a towntell for me for kraska to insist on the towniness of the King of Diamonds (which she had, unclaimed).
- 3818. Again, I just don't see scum writing this as partners with Maria, Uzi and Kison.
But also, just all of it. My gut is screaming that kraska wasn't scum. If she was faking her scumhunting, it was a pretty great performance.

Grey's play I can't read very well. It's... superficial. His reads are either unexplained, or based on recent chunks of the game. He doesn't say anything much about many people in the game. None of this is particularly alignment indicative (or at least, not in any way I can read).
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Post Post #6849 (isolation #396) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:01 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Max

- Triple neighbourise is a bit town to me. His play in our hood is just fine. Though our hood chain (me-Max-Vecna) has been very open with information, so if Max is scum his job has been easy.
- I think Max is right when he says that if either of us were scum, we'd have shot Vecna.

Max's day 1 is underwhelming, but he picks up the pace D2. He does some kill analysis clearing Uzi which would be weird as his partner. And... I'm tired and struggling to read through his ISO, much less post coherently about it. But I don't think it looks like scum. Lots of sensible stuff in the face of silliness from the town.

So, I'm wrong about someone. I'm not *that* convinced it's Grey or Max. I feel like I'm missing something that would crack this thing wide open. Particularly with two pretty hard to understand kills by scumbags (Spyrex, TWIE).

I'll give this another go tomorrow evening, and get to an answer and vote. Current lean is Grey, but nothing feels right.
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Post Post #6853 (isolation #397) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:15 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Nah. Loses us a mislynch - we can afford 2 atm, but if we no-lynch we're in MYLO. That's not worth it for a flip.
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Post Post #6857 (isolation #398) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:58 pm

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In post 6856, -Grey- wrote:If you fools want to lynch me when I become obvtown with a Dunnstral scum flip, I got no love for ya.
There a two problems with this:
- You don't become obvtown with a Dunn scum flip. There's really no reason the scum would avoid having two people in a hood. It's probably not something they'd actively value, but both your hearts hood cards have other good powers on them.
- If you are scum and Dunn town, there are pretty good odds that lynching someone else loses us the game; there are two trump cards which would kill us by activating either of your vig powers.
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Post Post #6860 (isolation #399) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:15 am

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Grey and Max both look pretty unlikely, but not completely implausible, scumbags. No other lynch looks appetising. The two people whose alignment I trust the most are of one mind, so I'm going to be a sheep on this one.

VOTE: Grey
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