Open 665 - Friends and Enemies - Game Over! Town Victory!!!

[FancyPants]

Vote : Mozamis

Obvscum, wagon ho.
Free town points for all participants.

[FancyPants]

Hey guys.
I'm masons with Transcend.

I don't see how this is pro-town.

[FancyPants]

It's pro-town because he's not actually in the game.

Ah that makes it better.

Anyway vote mozamis.

[FancyPants]

OK well not much to go on thus far. Let's take a stab then.
Alisae, Havingfitz, Empking, Grey, Hawk all seem to have some vague interest in figuring out this game at least.

ConManMick and boring haven't done much. LUV I'm not sure about.
Mozamis making some really early town reads, makes me suspect he

knows

who town are. Surety is scummy.

Therefore I'm happy with my vote. As I said earlier wagon ho.

[FancyPants]

I think it's a bit of a stretch to call moz' reads as sureties. I think his read on Alisae builds from #62 onwards. Uses words like "looks" etc. To be fair he does push on to use definitives, and it's a bit early for that, but I think it's just him solidifying his read. Not that I particularly agree with it.

Paranoid and uncertainty is town, I didn't get that from moz.

[FancyPants]

Town points for boring.

[FancyPants]

I should like the three remaining players to start posting, also.

Someone implied earlier that Snarkysnake and RB are active elsewhere on the site, is this confirmed? Kento probably needs replacing.

[FancyPants]

@ fancypants - i often find it easier to work out town and try for P.O.E. Anyway, Alisae looks town to me.
I don't get the grey wagon.

I'm completely on board with that strategy, and use it myself.

However your reasoning seems paper thin.
Town reading Alisae for making a typical RvS post.
Town reading Grey for what I assumed was a tongue in cheek reaction to a borderline RvS vote (which boring has then overanalysed to the nth degree).

You've also acted a bit squirrelly, telling us you need to "catch up" after two pages seems a bit defensive to me, not to mention potentially not read the entire thread which is scummy in my book (when I play scum I am usually tempted to skip stuff).


As for the Alisae vs Grey stuff, Alisae seems illogical. These intuitive leaps to "one of you is scum" have always bugged me. I've hated when people use "gut" as a reasoning since I started playing here but it's so prevalent that I've learned to live with it, if gut is just an intuitive subconscious leap then at least try to identify where that came from.

@Snarky, I sympathise with you not finding the thread but care to weigh in?

[FancyPants]

I'm not saying Alisae is scum, I just disagree with the reasoning, the "one of them is scum" is actually a dangerous thought because if the interaction is a TvT then scum have an excuse to lynch to concurrent townies, but I'm not convinced it doesn't come from paranoid townies just as often.

[FancyPants]

*two concurrent townies.

[FancyPants]

I'm not saying Alisae is scum, I just disagree with the reasoning, the "one of them is scum" is actually a dangerous thought because if the interaction is a TvT then scum have an excuse to lynch to concurrent townies, but I'm not convinced it doesn't come from paranoid townies just as often.

Was this in response to 128?

No I had it typed and posted it anyway despite the ninja.

[FancyPants]

I didn't like the reasoning for Ali's vote on Grey at all but I wouldn't be surprised if Grey was voted for his reaction to how I described his scum game. I'm not really interested in that right now though. The seed has been planted and I will simply watch it grow for now.

Mozamis tends to town hunt like I do but I think he may be a bit to generous with town reads than the average person based on the experience I have with him.

--

OK well not much to go on thus far. Let's take a stab then.
Alisae, Havingfitz, Empking, Grey, Hawk all seem to have some vague interest in figuring out this game at least.

ConManMick and boring haven't done much. LUV I'm not sure about.
Mozamis making some really early town reads, makes me suspect he

knows

who town are. Surety is scummy.

Therefore I'm happy with my vote. As I said earlier wagon ho.

Could you point to which posts give you those feelings about King and Hawk?

Your opinion on Mozamis is noted, a meta scan may be in order.

My early list is very much a draft, there really is nothing much to go on. Despite Empking's lack of posts I do feel what he has done actually seems aimed at scum hunting. As for hawk the promise of digging into meta always seems town to me, just based on the pure effort required, when scum know they are just wasting their time. I did notice there was no follow up though.

[FancyPants]

As for hawk the promise of digging into meta always seems town to me, just based on the pure effort required, when scum know they are just wasting their time. I did notice there was no follow up though.

Ugh. So basically another null read. Do you even have any substantial reads, apart from mozamis whom you're tunneling from the very beginning (which seems convenient, given it was your rvs vote)?

I have town leans on a lot of people, but its to early to be certain of anyone. I'm not 100% sold on Mozamis either but he's not giving me any reason to drop it, he hasn't even posted since he's had a bit of pressure on him, not exact a positive sign. Boring and Empking are my strongest town reads.

I gave somewhat of a read list in 89, at the moment I would say scum are probably Moz, SnarkySnowman + one more, maybe ConManMick.

[FancyPants]

To clarify I find it highly suspicious that Snarky found the thread but hasn't bothered to interact with it - feels like he's trying to lay low and as for ConManMick, I see nothing but fluff and absolutely no desire to catch scum.
Combined with PoE from town leans I'd say those three are a good shout.

[FancyPants]

Not seeing the Alisae or Grey wagons, they could be scum, but I don't find the cases on them particularly compelling. I like Alisae more for town, some genuine desire to scum hunt from her. Grey may have shown good logic, but if logic was a yardstick for scumminess this game would be a lot easier, Grey is more on the null side for me.

[FancyPants]

CMM maybe. Personally I'm tone townreading him. Your reason to suspect SS is terrible though.

No it isn't. I always struggle to post more when I'm scum. I've found a lot of scum lay low until they have pressure on them, and only post when under pressure.

[FancyPants]

Well if you remember the last game we played together - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=68429
Literally the most inactive players in the early game were all scum. I know one game isn't any indication of anything but I've found a similar trend in the other games I've played as well.

It may be sub-optimal play but it makes sense both from a strategic and a personal level for scum, firstly the less you post the less likely it is that town will catch you, and secondly from a personal level it is the difference between "posting to figure out the game" and "manufacturing reads" I'd say it's hard to argue that the latter is less palatable for most.

I know it varies from player to player but I'd say there is a statistically significant difference in activity between scum and town play for most players.
So yes I do want to argue, when scum are pressured suddenly their win condition is threatened in a way it isn't when they aren't pressured.

I haven't been here for very long but it seems to me like their is a bias towards players who post more being scum and I feel the trend should be the opposite.

[FancyPants]

SS has posted only once, I can't see how he's scum for being inactive right now.

I haven't been here for very long but it seems to me like their is a bias towards players who post more being scum and I feel the trend should be the opposite.

Do you think you're prone to being called scum cause you're active? Do you think that's what I'm doing right now?

I did say it was partly because he posted and bailed, and partly because of PoE from my various town leanings. It's a long shot but I think it's a good shout, wouldn't be surprised to find at the end of the game 2 scum in the three people I mentioned. It's early days however.

I'm personally not prone to be called scum when I'm active and I don't think that's what you're doing either. I just think it's a trend. Basically people look for scum in the people the see in the thread, the more a person posts the more their own confirmation bias works against that person. Perhaps that's more prevalent in newbie games (where I've mostly played), but it makes sense to me.

[FancyPants]

In short I do think activity is town tell and inactivity is a scum tell. It's obviously doesn't apply to every player in every situation, but I would say that it is at least statistically significant for the reasons I mentioned.

Townies can be inactive because they are busy, scum can also be inactive because they are busy, but on aggregate scum have more reason, and incentive to be inactive.

[FancyPants]

@BlueBloodedToe, My Moz vote didn't have a lot behind it but I refuse to unvote someone who can't be bothered to engage with the game, in any case it isn't just for having those town reads. I also felt like he was fluffing his content and now he's disappeared.
As for Empking I like the last line in 74 I think it was a good angle, I also like that he is putting pressure on people with no votes on them.

[FancyPants]

@Grey, what about my posts make you think that?

[FancyPants]

@boring, rather.

[FancyPants]

@ConManMick, will you explain your comment on post 136.

[FancyPants]

Pretty busy this weekend, not going to officially go on VLA but fair warning, feeling less bullish about moz, and more so on CMM and Snowman (so I agree with Alisae).

[FancyPants]

Catching up tonight

[FancyPants]

@Mod, please replace me. Sorry for any inconvenience caused.