Open 667: Day 3

Tenshii · Post Post #459 (isolation #0) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:16 am

@Mod I'll be V/LA Thursday-Monday

In post 313, Gamma Emerald wrote:@Bork SS's last post looks fine

Who or what is SS?

Tenshii · Post Post #460 (isolation #1) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:16 am

@chilledtea What was your reasoning for scumreading Vij?

Tenshii · Post Post #461 (isolation #2) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:19 am

@Pip Restate your case on Creature.

Tenshii · Post Post #462 (isolation #3) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:19 am

I'll post catchup thoughts/reads after my questions are answered. Also since I'm V/LA Thursday, I plan on locking my vote on someone by then.

Tenshii · Post Post #463 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:20 am

Oh SnarkySnowman. Nvm Gamma.

Tenshii · Post Post #465 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:22 am

Are you townreading every other slot? If not, what are your reads on every other slot? Your Vij read is a PoE and not an actual scumread right?

Tenshii · Post Post #484 (isolation #6) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:39 pm

VOTE: Pepchoninga

I need to lock something in today so it'll be here. When I read the game, a lot of Pepchoninga's play was offering commentary on his thoughts on things happening throughout the game. But he never went anywhere with those thoughts. He'd say often "X is scum" or "This is bad" yet there wouldn't be any followup. There's scum motivation behind this because this kind of play allows Pepchoninga to throw shade onto people without committing to an attack so to speak. He's essentially throwing shade around and hoping it'll stick.

I resonated alot with Vij's ideas and think he's town for it.

Tenshii · Post Post #522 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 7:04 pm

I'm pretty sure the correct play today is to NL. Preferably no taking too to avoid wifom for the night kill but that's up for debate.

If we ML today, we head to D3 desperation day in 2v4 mylo. It'd be better to NL and head into D3 with 2v5 w/ ML.

VOTE: No Lynch

Tenshii · Post Post #583 (isolation #8) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:23 pm

Still advocate no talking.

Although for anyone else, if there's info you really need to speak/talk about then go for it. Just be aware of the nightkill.

Tenshii · Post Post #584 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:24 pm

Kinda funny how if we NL, the game will be in lylo for the rest of the game. Although D3 be lylo for mafia instead of town.

Tenshii · Post Post #590 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:32 pm

In post 586, CloudKicker wrote:
In post 584, Tenshii wrote:Kinda funny how if we NL, the game will be in lylo for the rest of the game. Although D3 be lylo for mafia instead of town.
whut?

In post 587, CloudKicker wrote:no-lynching is for losers no offense

Do you fully understand the setup?

Tenshii · Post Post #598 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:30 pm

@CloudKicker I dare you to read your role PM.

Tenshii · Post Post #606 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:04 pm

UNVOTE: No Lynch

Calculating some statistics

Tenshii · Post Post #608 (isolation #13) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:16 pm

No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day

2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)

28% + (72% * 13%) =

37% Town Win

Lynch Today

2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)

(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =

36% Town Win

Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.

In post 604, CloudKicker wrote:no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.

Get bodied.

Tenshii · Post Post #609 (isolation #14) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:16 pm

VOTE: No Lynch