Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)

[Dunnstral]

oh, then yes

[drealmerz7]

no energy to do much here tonight, but...

really, dunnstral? were you just sitting around wondering where to lay some blame and my name looked good / I looked like an easy target or ???

I'll agree that we all need to be on-guard about each other, but, you seem to pick me out of no where suddenly ?

will address more specific things tomorrow - no work on thurs

[Vecna]

also vecna your card list is wrong

drealmerz has the 9 of hearts that's all i noticed

Yeah I allready noticed my outcome was different from the gm's deck-remaining-number. The 9 of hearts also was trumps once, probably missed that. Think theres 1 more error somewhere, but its not that important anyway. Its just interesting to me to see the rough probabilities of different trumps for the coming day/night cycle which is going to be very important.

Most notably and possibly gamechanging are the comparatively high probabilities for Grey's alpha vig to become active (4/32), or Kison's fruitvendor (although the odds of it also making someone allergic are 2/32 if people do have the 5-c)

[Vecna]

Anyways I really dont see a possible scum setup where TWIE isnt bussing Kison here, unless my reads really are horrible this game. Id strongly advocate for an inventory on the 5-c since it might net us 2 scum or clear TWIE from being the person with the A-c if we lynch Kison and he does flip without the watcher card.

[Kison]

kison. kison.

hi.

sup

DAY 3 VOTECOUNT #6

MariaR

(10) - Dunnstral, kraska77, Kison, Lil Uzi Vert,

gigabyteTroubadour

, Vecna, drealmerz7, Fishythefish,

SpyreX

,

Transcend

Kison (2) -

Titus

,

MariaR

Lil Uzi Vert (1) - gerryoat

Not Voting (7) -

Vedith

,

milkshake

,

davesaz

, Maxous,

McMenno

, TheWayItEnds

With 19 alive, it takes 10 to lynch.

are you sure scum are voting towards the end here

and/or that there is one scum on the wagon

Regarding this, I'm not really sure of anything, but my stance on Maria's wagon hasn't changed much from what I first thought after she was lynched: Highly likely she was bussed, and those bussing most likely are people who voted her d3 but not d2. I recall that after I reviewed this a second time I realized we had a few people who were barely here or not here whatsoever during d3(Vedith replaced out, Vifam replaced out, milkshake was 100% absent and replaced) which could explain non voting scum opting not to bus. And that defending Maria on d3 was an unlikely scum play(the sole reason I didn't like a McMenno lynch). I don't think position on the d3 wagon really matters much.

who do you think is scum with twie?

I'll have to read every player individually before I can have an answer for who makes most sense with TWIE in particular, but this is how I currently order everyone else in general: Lil Uzi Vert, gerryoat, drealmerz7, Dunnstral, Maxous, -Grey-, Vecna, Fishythefish, gigabyteTroubadour

Regarding Max, I would have put him higher up except (1) he pushed Maria during d2, (2) yet he wasn't voting her d3, and (3) his choice of cards aren't what I'd expect scum to go after. That being said, this bugs me the most about him. He goes from this stance late yesterday:

Don't shoot Kison.
He was one of the consistent strongest pushers of the Maria lynch

To this today:

VOTE: kison

Alright

Not even for a second considering that TWIE could be lying. The last time I can find him even referencing Vifam/TWIE is from

December 12th

where he had me ranked "Town" and Vifam ranked "Dunno". No mention after that. He needs to explain why he went from not wanting me vigged yesterday to immediately assuming I am scum over TWIE today.

Uzi: The resistance to lynching him has been crazy strong all game. He has done painfully close to nothing to try to help out but has been given a pass because he's "awkward". I've spoken about this slot quite a bit earlier in the game. Fits the bill of a Maria busser.

gerryoat & Drealmerz7: Mostly PoE & d3. Drealmerz has made several fluffy multi-paragraph posts throughout the game that don't contribute anything and I recall pointing this out earlier. Gerry's play has been pretty inane and memorable mainly for pushing Dunn over the scum slip that we have estabished already is not a slip.

Dunnstral: Don't think he slipped. Could still be scum. Less likely than others because he was on Maria d2, but more likely than Maxous.

I've had these as unlikely to be scum due to use of cards & overall play, but I will be reviewing: -Grey-, Vecna, Fishythefish, gigabyteTroubadour

Everyone needs to be held accountable for making a decision and explaining it thoroughly well in advance to voting today. We can (1) catch the bullshitters trying to mislynch me before it happens and (2) in fact lynch TWIE and benefit from a trove of information tomorrow. If you guys let this game just stagnate and go down to the wire with people flinging votes in a rush, we're going to lose.

[Quipla]

ATTENTION TOWNIES...

gigabyteTroubadour has been killed Day 6. They were a

Townie

with the following cards:

[Quipla]

DECK x 32 - TRUMP x 1 - DISCARD PILE x 43

DAY 6 VOTECOUNT #4

Dunnstral (1)

- gerryoat

TheWayItEnds (1)

- Kison

Not Voting (8)

- Fishythefish, drealmerz7, Vecna, Dunnstral, Lil Uzi Vert, TheWayItEnds, Maxous, -Grey-

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is set for (expired on 2017-01-26 12:11:02).

[TheWayItEnds]

yeah thats what i was afraid of.

we can lynch kison now.

[Fishythefish]

Where I am on Kison vs TWIE:

- Kison looks better, outside of the cop result
- The cop result is quite unlikely to be faked in not-quite-lylo
- I need to think harder about both of those to weigh them properly

[Fishythefish]

(And that thinking will be done no later than Saturday, hopefully sooner)

[Fishythefish]

(And that thinking will be done no later than Saturday, hopefully sooner)

Fuck this guy. I'm sorting this out tonight.

[TheWayItEnds]

Where I am on Kison vs TWIE:

- Kison looks better, outside of the cop result
- The cop result is quite unlikely to be faked in not-quite-lylo
- I need to think harder about both of those to weigh them properly

Well 1/2 ain't that bad

[Fishythefish]

I'm leaning towards a TWIE lynch.

Kison has been pretty protown throughout the game

Kison is one of a few players who made Maria's lynch a good deal more likely. Bussing happens, but it more often doesn't. Kison's play looks a lot like someone trying to catch scum.

TWIE/Vifam have not

This slot's not really done much, tbh. Vifam claimed to pick cards randomly, which is a townish thing to do in a weird kind of way - surely scum would have been chatting away about draft picks. I don't think it's really the kind of thing people lie about. Outside of that, there's fuck all to get a read based on. I don't at all understand TWIE's claim that Vifam was obvtown day 1.

This result is totally plausible for TWIE as scum, either faking or bussing

scum!TWIE had claimed card cop, and needed to make or fake a result. That had to be on Kison or LUV, as the likely holders of the evil cards. In order of likeliness:

1) scum!TWIE would gladly give a real inno on scum!Kison or scum!LUV.
2) scum!TWIE could give a real guilty on scum!Kison or scum!LUV: a hard bus.
3) scum!TWIE could give a real inno on town!Kison or town!LUV. However, with inventory, narrowing down the lynch pool in "hunt the ace of clubs" would be a real risk. Particularly true of the other of Kison and LUV is scum.
4) scum!TWIE could fake a guilty on town!Kison or town!LUV. This is most likely to lead to their lynch, and with it a very likely scum win.
5) scum!TWIE wouldn't fake an inno on scum!Kison or scum!LUV: both are quite likely lynches in the near future, and TWIE could get autolynched.

If 1) was available, it seems highly likely the approach scum would take. If not (which is quite likely), 2, 3 and 4 all seem plausible options. So I don't see the guilty from TWIE as unlikely either as a lie or as a bus.

It's interesting that the result is the six, not the ace. Makes sense for scum if either a) it's a real result and a bus, or b) LUV holds the ace, and TWIE doesn't want to be linked there. The latter I find particularly plausible.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Gerryoat

[TheWayItEnds]

I'm leaning towards a TWIE lynch.

Kison has been pretty protown throughout the game

Kison is one of a few players who made Maria's lynch a good deal more likely. Bussing happens, but it more often doesn't. Kison's play looks a lot like someone trying to catch scum.

TWIE/Vifam have not

This slot's not really done much, tbh. Vifam claimed to pick cards randomly, which is a townish thing to do in a weird kind of way - surely scum would have been chatting away about draft picks. I don't think it's really the kind of thing people lie about. Outside of that, there's fuck all to get a read based on. I don't at all understand TWIE's claim that Vifam was obvtown day 1.

oh cool.

you're an idiot.

[Dunnstral]

Or scum...?
Who else do you think is scum with kison

[TheWayItEnds]

i could easily see grey scum.

im like real afraid that gerry is just really bad town.

i think vecnas lack of grasp on the gamestate makes him have to be town?

[TheWayItEnds]

LUV is like an impossible read.

i was scumreading maxous hard reading through d1d2 but not as much since

[TheWayItEnds]

yeah maybe fishy is scum.

huh

[Fishythefish]

I'm leaning towards a TWIE lynch.

Kison has been pretty protown throughout the game

Kison is one of a few players who made Maria's lynch a good deal more likely. Bussing happens, but it more often doesn't. Kison's play looks a lot like someone trying to catch scum.

TWIE/Vifam have not

This slot's not really done much, tbh. Vifam claimed to pick cards randomly, which is a townish thing to do in a weird kind of way - surely scum would have been chatting away about draft picks. I don't think it's really the kind of thing people lie about. Outside of that, there's fuck all to get a read based on. I don't at all understand TWIE's claim that Vifam was obvtown day 1.

oh cool.

you're an idiot.

Care to explain?

[TheWayItEnds]

or sure no problem.

[TheWayItEnds]

i called you an idiot because you made this post

[TheWayItEnds]

hopefully that clarifies things

[Fishythefish]

Oh, thanks. I get it now.

[Fishythefish]

But really - I'd like to know why you think it's idiotic. Because I disagree.