Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)

[TheWayItEnds]

I thought about it some more last night & would like to know why this is deterring you. We know the AC is in the game. It's probably simply that both are in the game and he's holding the 6C while someone else has the AC. Saying I have the card he in fact has is the safe play: if the AC holder died before this was resolved, either via lynching outside the two of us or by the shuffle everyone was expecting(it was the plan going into night) yielding a trump that, say, activated Grey's vig, it would disqualify the fake result against me had he said I had the AC.

Yeah, I've gone back to thinking TWIE-scum with the ace elsewhere (almost certainly Uzi) works just fine. TWIE in this scenario might or might not hold the 6C. Either way, I think the result he claimed is very plausible for scum having to claim a card cop.

...

literally any situation that you can think of that causes me to remove a club from the game that isnt the ace of clubs is a stupid thing to do.

just so you know.

you can keep bringing it up like its a possibility.

but its not.

[TheWayItEnds]

plus a bus in this situation is just so incredibly unlikely anyway.

so probably should stop thinking about any of those situations as well.

[Fishythefish]

Why? As scum with a non-Kison partner with the ace, what would you have done?

[TheWayItEnds]

so like im either town with a guilty on kison.

or im scum making up a guilty on kison to force the town into 48hr deadlines. but ive chosen not to use the ace of clubs as my bait card to make you mislynch because claiming that kison has another random card instead of a card that we know scum has is next next level.

because that makes sense.

[TheWayItEnds]

i tell you that kison has the ace.

because we know they have it.

duh?

[TheWayItEnds]

like theres no evidence of either a strongman kill or a roleblock. so telling you that kison has the 6 because its a scummy card in general and not the ace which theres definite proof that the scumteam has access too makes literally no fucking sense.

[TheWayItEnds]

literally.

[Fishythefish]

The time the claim of the six makes sense is if you have a partner with the ace. If that partner dies after you claim the ace, you are instantly outed as scum. That seems like a fairly big risk.

(Actually, there is some weird-but-actually-quite-good evidence of a d2 strongman)

[TheWayItEnds]

...wut.

[TheWayItEnds]

i claim someone has the ace.

we lynch him.

he doesnt have the ace.

what happens to me?

why am i ever worried about any future day beyond this one in the scenario where im scum and fake a guilty?

[Fishythefish]

If your fake guilty doesn't result in a lynch. Bleh, maybe that's really really unlikely and you wouldn't give a fig about it.

[Fishythefish]

(Actually, there is some weird-but-actually-quite-good evidence of a d2 strongman)

Expanding on this - we now know that on D2 scum shot someone who, to scum, was 50% likely to be BP. Pretty likely they had a strongman.

[TheWayItEnds]

like... i dont know what you're doing trying to think of a long term plan for me.

if kison doesnt flip with the exact cards i say he has, im clearly getting lynched tomorrow.

it doesnt matter where the ace is in that case.

[TheWayItEnds]

and if the ace is in LUVs hands this play is super bad for scum anyway so like.

why would i do it?

[TheWayItEnds]

actually i dunno about that last post.

i think i would heavily consider trading me and LUV for 48 hr deadlines.

disregard 6038.

its probably not that negative EV

[Fishythefish]

You say you'd have claimed Kison had the Ace not the six and scum. Maybe that's true. However, there's a bit of WIFOM going on here. You might think this argument is easier to swing; and really, that would be the only thing you'd think about when choosing your fakeclaim.

[TheWayItEnds]

how.

would claiming.

that kison.

has a card.

that theres no evidence of.

over.

the card that we know the scumteam has.

be an easier argument to swing.

how.

[TheWayItEnds]

like.

i literally have no fucking clue what the fuck you're even on about at this point.

[Fishythefish]

You are arguing that your claim must be real because it's less plausible than another claim you could have made.

This is an argument you could have planned to make.

[Fishythefish]

You are saying that your claim is more plausible because you claimed the six not the ace.

As scum, the only thing you would have cared about is how plausible your claim is.

By that logic, the six was the better scum claim.

[Kison]

how.

would claiming.

that kison.

has a card.

that theres no evidence of.

over.

the card that we know the scumteam has.

be an easier argument to swing.

how.

Because you probably are holding it. Therefore

you

know it's in the game and know it will never be counter claimed or disproven with an inventory. Claiming I have the 6C is just as damning to me as claiming I have the AC. Look how eager everyone was to lynch me when you made the claim.

You holding the AC & your scum partner holding the AC is the reason not to say I have that card. Everyone expected a shuffle last night. That could easily have been a card to activate Grey's vig. Or we could have not lynched between the two of us and lynched the AC holder instead. That would disqualify a fake AC cop on me.

[Fishythefish]

The shuffle thing doesn't hold water; TWIE claimed after the no-shuffle was revealed. The lynch outside the dipole seems unlikely to influence scum much; all the more so with the ace claim.

[TheWayItEnds]

Because you probably are holding it.

literally explain how this makes any fucking difference.

at all.

ever.

in any reality.

[Kison]

The shuffle thing doesn't hold water; TWIE claimed after the no-shuffle was revealed.

Fair enough. You're right. They would have had time once day started to re-evaluate.

The lynch outside the dipole seems unlikely to influence scum much; all the more so with the ace claim.

You yourself proposed resolving this later. Why do you think scum wouldn't consider that possibility? The safe play is the card that the guy making the fake claim is holding, and the 6C is just as believable as the AC. Again, look how quickly I was bandwagoned earlier.

literally explain how this makes any fucking difference.

at all.

ever.

in any reality.

I already.

did.

more than.

once.

[TheWayItEnds]

okay but now do it an a way that would actually make sense.