Open 669 - Nightless Vengeful Mayhem [Game Over]

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from noon today until Monday for my usual weekend duties.

So the dual flips of FC and Sesq as Town means I am going to completely reset my reads. Also re-reading their ISO for suspicions knowing they are Town.

Superhans actually is not on my radar at this point given his reaction to feeling that he was being linked to FC and Sesq. Both are Town. Scum isn’t going to care about being linked to them through play when they are likely to be lynched before you.

Now that we have a flip of Town on FC 491 has me somewhat suspicious. The string of posts by UD before that point look like someone who is actively reading the game. I had previously pointed out that FC was at L-2 and I don’t think it is a reasonable explanation that they just didn’t see Sesq’s vote at 485 given that vote was posted an hour and a half before their first post.

I also want to look back to see who was the first person to float the “It was a frame-job” explanation for Hawk’s daykill. That was not the Occam’s Razor explanation for the kill and might be a case of informed scum leaking info to be viewed as “perceptive”.

And fitz’s post right before this puts him squarely on my radar for “Man, it sucks that FC and Sesq were Town” posting which looks like forced Town attempt posting to me.

[havingfitz]

And fitz’s post right before this puts him squarely on my radar for “Man, it sucks that FC and Sesq were Town”

How is saying what I was feeling...as I assume several people feel...forced town?

I actually thought someone might use that comment as a negative (I can't recall the name of the tell) but I'm surprised it's you. If you're town your radar needs calibrated.

[wgeurts]

Sesq was an awful shot what the heck. Anyway, we've got 3 town deaths so it's time to reread the game again and draw associative tells. I'm a little behind due to exams but I'll get a good ammount in this weekend.

[wgeurts]

jeez...a lot to catch up on...almost all of it probably town on town bollocks as always...
i had a brief skim ealrier, and hawk looked SOOOOOOOOO TOWN.
So that's one down.

Eh, never mind. On second ISO, he doesn't look so scummy. I still disagree with avoiding content and judgments early on, though.

UNVOTE: Hawk

I honestly don't feel like we are out of RVS... all of this content you guys think is here feels forced and easily could be fluff. Like I said Null feels all around. Plus I like engaging people rather than just googling it. Do you think Revan voted me out of RVS? I don't think so. If he did he better speak now. Ignore shit that doesn't partake to the game if it's one damn post if it bothers you that much.

Yes, we are out of RVS. We have been for a while now. Once someone votes someone else for a good reason rather than just at random, RVS ends. And I was not saying that you were playing poorly, but that your post had what I saw as likely scum motivation. Why should I ignore it?

Doom, figuring out scum's best play is what town is meant to do. Like chess, you should always be predicting what they're going to do. Considering what's town and scum are likely to do, and reading posts to see which motivation makes more sense, is what we call scum-hunting. It's very hard to catch scum if you don't spend time thinking about what scum do, they're not going to hand themselves over on a platter. Me posting on it means everyone can take it into consideration. It's also not so that I've only posted game theory, you're leaving part of my posts untouched.

Unlike chess, I see here a difference between best play and likely play; however, I can see how predicting scum's best play would be a valid strategy, though naming it so they can avoid it seems a little odd.

UNVOTE: wgeurts

Also, hell yes we should form a town bloc, that's literally what we should be aiming for. Right now though? Definitely not, and I've never said so. That happens later game, once reads are more established, people have flipped, and one or two scum shots have gone off. How is this suspicious? You can't just call things suspicious without explaining why.

Thank you for clarifying that we're waiting until later. I have problems with limitations on who I vote for without reasons I see as good.

A. That's a stretch as really nobody's going to be distracted by a side-discussion about someone's username. Thus no time is wasted. Scum know this if they're decent at least.

It could clog up the thread if done right. I read an article about that.

B. Why would scum do that so early on? Stalling and redirecting attention is best done mid-late day when the deadline draws near or a scum-partner is in danger. Neither of those conditions have been met yet.

Thank you for explaining this; I didn't know.

C. It is still RVS, notice how people don't have firm reads and are randomly voting?

"Without firm reads" is far different from "randomly". You are voting me for a reason, no?

VOTE: Hawk

Alright doom is town, and you'll have to lynch me before I tolerate someone going after him.

[wgeurts]

Oh crap quick reply also adds the quotes im gathering for associatives. Sorry about that

[Revan]

My Superhans vote was because I'm not townreading him.

The Sesq flip does strengthen my read on him, because it narrows down my lynchpool.

[doomfeathers]

FC and Sesq are both town? Allow me to take a moment to rethink my convictions on profanity.

Well, now we must avenge those we killed.

Three townies dead means that we are now allowed two mislynches before we hit scum. Otherwise, down we go.

This is going to suck if Magna is somehow scum.

Sesq was an awful shot what the heck. Anyway, we've got 3 town deaths so it's time to reread the game again and draw associative tells. I'm a little behind due to exams but I'll get a good ammount in this weekend.

Why? We were going to wagon the tar out of, and almost certainly lynch, Sesq today. She was scumread a LOT. This saves us a day.

I'm going to need to go back over pretty much everything now.

[wgeurts]

I'm afraid I had less time today than I and envisioned, sorry about that. I shall make sure I contribute at least my views on everyone before the next round of tests hit.

@Doom,
Sesq didn't look all too much like scum in my opinion, but he's dead so it's irrelevant now anyways. I had him as someone we should have kept alive until later, if anyone I would have shot one of the wildcards such as Revan to avoid awkward scenarios later.

[Superhans]

Kill wasn't panic reaction and was designed to incriminate FC? Maybe you're mafia if this is the case? I think your explanation is more likely, but i'll be thinking about this is FC flips town.

Well let's see ...

If FC is Town being incriminated by that kill and being mislynched FC-Town gets a Vengekill to take out scum pushing his lynch. So just bringing up the possibility of it being a veteran frame game job means it is sub-optimal play for said veterans. Not to mention that Friend was already under fire for his play so the concept of someone killing Hawk to "frame" him is pretty obtuse given there really was no need for it. High risk low to non-existent reward IMO.

But at least it is a theory being presented from you.

Besides Revan who is scum Hans? Despite you saying "FC is a better lynch than Sesq" you've steadfastly not commited to FC as actual scum. I'd like enough scum reads from you to fill out the scum-team even if those reads are not team-reads.

I scum read FC mid/late D1, and don't think that scum would necessarily have been on the wagon as pushing him, and Sesq, didn't really require that much effort. My prime D1 scum read was on Revan, but I also had scum reads on Lucca and FC.
I'll need to reread D1 to see if any of my reads have changed with knowledge that Sesq and FC are town.

[Superhans]

Good point. It's not necessarily a scumslip. I still think it's suspicious, though. But let's lynch Sesq first, especially if Friend Computer flips scum.

if you plan to lynch sesq first, how will we know if fc is scum?
Out of FC and Sesq, I would want to lynch FC first, he is posting less, and his posts are kinda nonsense (e.g. voting mod etc). I like the train of thought in Sesq's posts and I think it would be hugely beneficial to keep her alive even if she is scum (if you get what i mean).

First after FC, I meant.

Anyway, I'm totally aware I did stupid shit and I'm expecting to be lynched now.

This is scum.

Town does not give up the fight like this. This is a gambit to try to keep from being lynched.

VOTE: Sesq

hmm seems like a bit of an overreaction to what I think is equally likely to be town play. I think you're suffering from tunnel vision Doomfeather, put Sesqs behaviour into perspective.

Yeah, no. I don't care if it was made by the most townie-looking person in the game; THIS POST IS SCUM. And I have read the context to put it in perspective; it just got scummier.

Sesq is scummier than Friend anyway.

exactly. magna and co, shift your ARSES on to sesq wagon.

Sesq is scum, but we think FC might be the shooter. Care to lynch FC today and Sesq tomorrow?

Would TownDoomfeather or ScumDoomfeather be this confident in FC and Sesq, and also this completely wrong?

[Superhans]

[...]
This is going to suck if Magna is somehow scum.
[...]

Would it suck (as much) if Wguert is scum?

[Superhans]

My Superhans vote was because I'm not townreading him.

The Sesq flip does strengthen my read on him, because it narrows down my lynchpool.

Was this a response to HavingFitz (is Fitz okay?)

Mod...when you post your vote counts could you add a line for those not voting?

I knew there was a player not on any EOD1 wagons but couldn't remember who (it was FC btw).

Sucks that FC was town. Glad he took out lynchbait Sesq though. But sucks that Sesq was town. (you said "butt sucks"..hehe...hehe -Beavis)

As for D2...I lean towards there not being a lot of scum support for the FC lynch. He was a weak lurky player who had good points made against him. The same with Sesq. So while it sucks they were both town...at least we got rid of some of the low hanging fruit. Point being though...I do not think scum would have had to put a lot of effort into support FC's lynch. I could see there 0-1 on the mislynch. I.e. 2-3 off the mislynch.

All this off the top of my head so I want to go back over D1 to see where I want my vote to go today.

And as usual...my weekend posting will be limited so it might be tomorrow or Monday before I get a chance to apply a closer look.

p.edit.

Revan...can you give some reasoning too for your Superhans vote? Do the two town flips effect your read on him at all?

Also...Superhans....would you mind if I just called you Hans?

I think Fitz wanted like actual reasons, not just your tunnel vision. You also didn't give any valid reasoning when you voted me D1.

[Superhans]

@Havingfitz,

Any of these titles are acceptable:

Superhans,
Hans,
SH,
SuperHands,
or FatherSpliffmas

[Superhans]

[...]
This is going to suck if Magna is somehow scum.
[...]

Would it suck (as much) if Wguert is scum?

This is
@Doom btw

[doomfeathers]

[...]
This is going to suck if Magna is somehow scum.
[...]

Would it suck (as much) if Wguert is scum?

Yeah, but I can see Magna being scum before wgeurts being scum. I don't think he is, but if so, he (with the help of me and a few others) just got two townies nicely out of the way, so I'm going to go ahead and be paranoid for a bit now.

[mozamis]

didnt really like Fitz's opening post.
he seemed a bit oo knowledgeable "Not many scum on that lynch, i dont think".
This is not a "we must lynch fitz now" vote.
It IS a "he MIGHT be scum, lets get some pressure on him vote".

vote HAVINGFITZ

ps sorry sesq

[doomfeathers]

On second thought,

VOTE: MagnaofIllussion

Its partly a gut read, but his theory leading to two townie kills just seems to coincidental.

[mozamis]

whoah he seemed very fucking town.
you think scum would seriously go to the bother of coming up with such a thory?
I guess you're gonna say: "Yes".
I urge you to reconsider :p

[mozamis]

Ok so Magna, Wgeurts, Hawk, Doom prob town.
Lucca just sloghtly less so, but looks town.
Anyone else could be scum.

[mozamis]

LETS OCCAM THE SHIT OF THIS GAME

[mozamis]

*OUT
bollocks that could have been cool. but...nope lol

[lucca261]

I'm here and posting. Actually didn't realize that D2 started. I'm reading.

[lucca261]

quick catchup:

- don't think scum would do this whole big theory and put themselves on the map to lynch Friend and Sesq. I mean, it wasn't needed. Friend and Sesq were both easy targets. The lynch and revenge kill make me think Magna is townier, actually. If he went for the whole theory stuff, it would be a very unnatural play.
- thought I would instant vote Superhans on this day, but I actually liked his content on this page. still scum, but now I'm not 100%.
- doom, is your scumread only based on Magna's theory or there is other stuff about his play that you think is scummy?
- fitz post is weird. he just say: "hey, there wasn't any scum on the wagon, let's move on", which would be scummy. but again, I don't think scum would say something like it? I feel like probably there is at least one scum on Friend's wagon. I mean, it's was such an easy wagon to hop in.

---

VOTE: Ultimate_Despair

Pretty sure this is scum. Especially after seeing this flips. Initially I thought that a Sesq Town flip would at least put UD on a null spot for me. But looking at the last page, I have the feel that UD knew that both Friend and Sesq would flip town. I mean, they were clearly preparing and leaving their options open to be able to vote anyone on D2, even if they "thought" that Sesq and Friend were scum. Look at this, on the last page alone:

They say that Mozamis is a scumlean for him. They say that Superhans is scummy. He votes for Friend. They says that anyone distracting people from the Sesq wagon is scummy. I believe they think that Revan is scummy too.

That alone are five scumreads. Potentially more when they are talking about the wagon.

This, together with the fact that UD haven't responded to my case on them, especially when they are such an active player, makes me think that UD is scum.

[karnos]

Vote Count 2.1

Ultimate Despair

(1): lucca261

MagnaofIllusion

(1): doomfeathers

Superhans

(1): Revan

Not Voting

(6): havingfitz, Ultimate Despair, MagnaofIllusion, wgeurts, mozamis, Superhans

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ultimate Despair has been prodded.

(expired on 2017-02-04 09:00:01) until deadline.

[mozamis]

@ MOD I AM VOTING FITZ