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Post Post #4825 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:14 am

Post by Creature »

Let's move on

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
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Post Post #4826 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:16 am

Post by Creature »

Mafia 2-shot Gunsmith is possible?
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Post Post #4827 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:22 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

Wraith wrote:Well if I have no other choice

Claim Cop. Inno on Titus N1.

Creature likely the real Vig.
Explain your process on why you went on Titus then
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Post Post #4828 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:25 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

I don't like the claim tho, those sorts of ones are admittedly easy for scum to make but on the flip side it would sort of explain Wraiths background play
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Post Post #4829 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:25 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

Don't know why you two are caught up on that, I'm busy thinking about literally everything else about his claim. Investing Titus makes perfect sense to me, though I'd probably go Dunn or Zach myself tbh.

Severa, if you're faking gunsmith, now would be a great time to out that.
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Post Post #4830 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:27 am

Post by Creature »

In post 4828, Zachstralkita wrote:I don't like the claim tho, those sorts of ones are admittedly easy for scum to make but on the flip side it would sort of explain Wraiths background play
Could save from a mislynch but not from a nightkill, there are better claims than that.
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Post Post #4831 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:51 am

Post by EchoVision »

UGH FUCK YOU GUYS

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SEVERA
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Post Post #4832 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:18 am

Post by Wraith »

Okay now that I have some bloody time I can explain things. Quote wall incoming.
In post 4821, Human Sequencer wrote:Why did you out creature? I'm doubting that hard recently, I'm guessing you picked up on the same crumb I did.
Because outlining my suspicions of Creature's role are integral to understanding why I investigated Titus over Alisae N1.
In post 1814, Creature wrote:I'll kill scum myself then.
I took this post for a Vig softclaim, especially after the series preceding it and ESPECIALLY after the one that followed:
In post 1816, Creature wrote:
Investigatives

Don't waste your precious checks on lurkers (unless you're some tracking-like role who thinks lurker will kill). They won't give info anyway.
I had already been getting PR vibes from Creature based on his playstyle - playing cards close to the chest - and my conclusion of "likely Vig" was due to him constantly pushing lurkers D1. I suspected it was either an attempt to provoke activity from the lurkers and thus separate town!lurkers from scum!lurkers, or to bait scum into an obvious mislynch wagon.

My suspicions of Creature being the Vig are also why I didn't believe Gin's claim whatsoever (combined with Gin loudly shouting about who he intended to "shoot"):
In post 2570, Wraith wrote:Yeah and it's very obviously fake. AA said it best:
In post 2401, All Alone wrote:
In post 2254, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:I'm just using my vig shot on you, I dont care if I die claiming a power role, you're a worthy shot.
In post 2265, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:I'll self hammer at this point but lynch these slots lynched with fire after I'm dead.
In post 2275, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:Remember, the those 3 pushers of my lynch, also Echo. Let's end Day 1 please.

VOTE: Gin
SELF-HAMMERING IS NOT A TOWN VIG PLAY

SELF-VOTING IS NOT A TOWN VIG PLAY

FAKECLAIM DETECTED, EVERYONE GET YOUR VOTES ON GIN
I also think Zach's case is a decent one when (finally) viewed altogether. And those aren't the only two reasons.

It's tough because the wagon on Alisae is starting to gain steam again and rightfully so. But I'm putting more priority on the terrible, obvious fakeclaim.

Unvote

Vote: Gin
In post 2769, Wraith wrote:AM I GOING COMPLETELY MAD?!

So the claimed Vig threatens to use his shot on HS the following night, and then actively pushes and votes for his own lynch? And then we're
telegraphing his Vig shot in advance?


In the theoretical scenario where Gin is telling the truth and he is the Vig, and he believes he is shooting scum in Echo, why should we possibly believe scum will just allow this to happen? If we're speculating Vigs and SKs and god-knows-whatever, is it so much of a stretch to speculate that the scum have a Roleblocker handy?

How is this
POSSIBLY
pro-town activity?
and also why I'm currently
very
suspicious of Debi/Rebbe's Vig claim.

I suspected Titus picked up on the same softclaim and vibe, and that he was softclaiming a protective role, after this post:
In post 1858, Titus wrote:
In post 1839, Creature wrote:I'll probably die N1 anyway.
Not if I have anything to say about it.
So I had a dilemma - investigate Alisae or Titus? I picked Titus because to me that would metaphorically confirm two birds with one stone in my mind. Turns out it confirmed three with one stone because the Grey/texcat flip made me firmly believe Alisae is town now.

In hindsight that was probably crucially flawed logic, but w/e. I think my scumreads at the start of the day illustrate my train of thought well enough:
In post 2980, Wraith wrote:Took a look at Grey/texcat's ISOs. One big thing I can take away from it is that my townread on Creature is cemented and I'm reversing on Alisae. Grey in particular did a lot to try to undermine those two players (as well as rb) early on.

Deftown


rb
Creature
Titus

Likely Town


Alisae
HS
Dunnstral

Neutral/Murky


Zach
Ircher
AA
Kyouko
Debi
drealmerz

Scumreads


Uzi
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Pine
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MortFeld recently pointed out a pretty crucial post Kyouko made:
In post 4533, Wraith wrote:
In post 4524, MortFeld wrote:
In post 3870, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:General question directed mostly at Titus but any experienced players: If there's a (1-shot) BP in this setup is it town or scum?
For the record, I've been thinking about this one a lot. @kyouko why did you ask this?
Holy shit how did I miss that?
Which is pretty clearly Kyouko fishing for PRs and bumped up my 99% certainty of Scum!Kyouko to 100%. That he's asking this question makes me think there are now two possibilities:

1. Kyouko's scumteam shot Creature and think Titus protected him
2. Kyouko's scumteam shot Titus and suspect he is BP
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Post Post #4833 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:22 am

Post by Wraith »

And for the record in case people are wondering why I would also investigate Titus over Creature it was because I had more confidence in the Creature townread.
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Post Post #4834 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:27 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

sells it for me. If this is a bullshit claim, I think it's one Wraith pulled out of his ass at L-1, not one he planned out in advance.

It also neatly truncates his read on Kyouko in a way that makes a lot of sense to me.

UNVOTE:
I need to talk to some people to get another good read going.
nah
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Post Post #4835 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:32 am

Post by drealmerz7 »

no, just vote severa FFS
balance among all things
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Post Post #4836 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:37 am

Post by Creature »

VOTE: Severa
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Post Post #4837 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:38 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

You are very clearly incorrect on Severa, not only because of my read on Severa but my read on how you came to scumread Severa.
That's a vanity wagon if I ever saw one, boys.

I'm gonna go here.
VOTE: Creature
Your scumgame evolved momentarily, but it's fallen apart again. Points for effort.
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Post Post #4838 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:42 am

Post by Wraith »

In post 4837, Human Sequencer wrote:You are very clearly incorrect on Severa, not only because of my read on Severa but my read on how you came to scumread Severa.
That's a vanity wagon if I ever saw one, boys.

I'm gonna go here.
VOTE: Creature
Your scumgame evolved momentarily, but it's fallen apart again. Points for effort.
What the fuck is this dude? Creature is not scum.
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Post Post #4839 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:47 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

A lot of what I thought was scumCreature when I first replaced in can be explained by prCreature, but I doubt he's actually vig with the way he's been acting about it recently. His play is really off, and I need to give him a closer look, sure. But his last few posts pinged me hard.
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Post Post #4840 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:49 am

Post by Creature »

Never confirmed (nor unconfirmed) vigilante.
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Post Post #4841 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:52 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

Why did you give no doubt to Gin's claim then?
Why did you soft so early?
Why do you give no doubt to Rebbe's claim? In fact, you townread them.
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Post Post #4842 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:55 am

Post by Creature »

Because I don't think I would be the only vigilante.
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Post Post #4843 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:57 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

With TWO SCUMTEAMS and ONE NIGHTKILL?
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Post Post #4844 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:02 am

Post by Creature »

I'll confirm that I didn't shoot texcat last night, not confirming whether I'm vigilante or not.
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Post Post #4845 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:04 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

You're a prime target for the nightkill now that this possibility has been bought to light, so what do you gain from keeping it ambiguous now?

The only answer I can see is scum keeping their options open.
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Post Post #4846 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:08 am

Post by MortFeld »

Not caught up on recent events but I am suspicious of people voting Creature.
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Post Post #4847 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:13 am

Post by Creature »

I could still be a VT trying to draw the NK to me. Or a town PR making scum think that.
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Post Post #4848 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:16 am

Post by Creature »

Though, I didn't shoot texcat.
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Post Post #4849 (ISO) » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:19 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

I did a quick skim of your wiki and didn't find a single game where you've faked a role to draw an NK as VT. It doesn't strike me as the kind of play you'd pull.
Can you link me to a game or more where you've done it?
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