Open 667: Day 3
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Normally, if you guys played optimally, d3 would happen to be on lylo 5 way 2 scum. By nling twice, we get ''scum lylo'' D3 and town lylo D4 and D5. Considering we would aim for a victory on D3 that would mean we want the best ''battlefield'' for town
-> Either we nl today, it goes 7 ways but the only 2 deaths are picked by mefia, we technically have 1/3 to win from anyones town pov, considering a few townies might never get lynched d3 it could go higher, 40%+
-> Either we pick a lynch target today that is chosen by town (which might be the D3 lynch anyway) and we got to 6 way D3 mylo or lynch for the victory of either side which could be cool, where we will lynch for possible autowin.
What that does is we uses our ml to makes for a better town for a better D3 try at ending gaming mefias.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Personnaly i believe that USING our D3
-> on a town that has 6 players over 7
-> on a town where theres at least one death that was chosen by town
-> the possibility of having lynched 1 mefia already on d2, so possibly no stress to lynch correctly more than so than the others days
VS
-> on a town with 7 players
-> if we mislynch, we still have 5 way lylo, so we have 1 shot at win and then 1 shot at not losing
-> the only 2 deaths that happened ingame were chosen by scum which leads to
-> our lynch will probably be the scummiest/most fosed player
->Theres also the cool strat that, mefia literraly cannot bus in autoloss d3, meaning even if we might mislynch, we could get great reads via the night flip for the 5 way lylos
hard to pickCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Also i dont know if anyone noticed by, we could probably check who was online at the end of the day when the no-lynch was forced, anyone who couldve hammered and didnt was playing against town victory condition and thats coming from the guy who know the slot's alignement. As mefia i wouldve not hammered there because i would assume town would go back on the lynch and blame the lack of traction because it was on a red slot, it wasnt. The actual scum gain wasnt to get a mislynch, it was to get a no-lynch and to resume the very same mislynch on my slot the very next day, no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.
Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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JasonWazza Jack of All Trades
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In post 599, CloudKicker wrote:Its not even indicated in the mod's post, i wouldve totally overlooked itDid you read the mod post?
It's in the setup preview.
AlsoIn post 593, JasonWazza wrote:Vote Count 2.2
[4] No Lynch: Tenshii, Creature, Börk Börk, TheSoldier,
Not voting: CloudKicker, SnarkySnowman, Gamma Emerald, Pepchoninga,
With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: (expired on 2017-02-08 01:35:05)
Returning win rate: 4/1, 80%
In the process of creating a game to mod, we will see what it holds.-
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Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
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Börk Börk Goon
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- Joined: October 30, 2016
- Location: Börkden
Jesus Christ, if we were in a situation that merited lynching someone then I would policy lynch you asap.In post 600, CloudKicker wrote:nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duh-
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Tenshii Mafia Scum
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No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day
2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)
28% + (72% * 13%) =37% Town Win
Lynch Today
2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)
(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =36% Town Win
Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.
Get bodied.In post 604, CloudKicker wrote:no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.-
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Tenshii Mafia Scum
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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tote a scum post ftrIn post 607, Börk Börk wrote:
Jesus Christ, if we were in a situation that merited lynching someone then I would policy lynch you asap.In post 600, CloudKicker wrote:nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duhCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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tenshi ure that kind of players arent you, i outed what really matters in the 2 scenarios, odd does not matterIn post 608, Tenshii wrote:No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day
2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)
28% + (72% * 13%) =37% Town Win
Lynch Today
2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)
(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =36% Town Win
Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.
Get bodied.In post 604, CloudKicker wrote:no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 8835
- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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- Pronoun: Any
- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)
I see
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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SnarkySnowman Mafia Scum
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 8835
- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 8835
- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 8835
- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 8835
- Joined: October 16, 2016
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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JasonWazza Jack of All Trades
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Vote Count 2.3 (END)
[5] No Lynch: Tenshii, Creature, Börk Börk, TheSoldier, CloudKicker,
Not voting: SnarkySnowman, Gamma Emerald, Pepchoninga,
With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: (expired on 2017-02-08 01:35:05)
Returning win rate: 4/1, 80%
In the process of creating a game to mod, we will see what it holds.
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