Open 667: Day 3

[CloudKicker]

nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duh

[CloudKicker]

Thats kinda broken honestly

[CloudKicker]

Normally, if you guys played optimally, d3 would happen to be on lylo 5 way 2 scum. By nling twice, we get ''scum lylo'' D3 and town lylo D4 and D5. Considering we would aim for a victory on D3 that would mean we want the best ''battlefield'' for town

-> Either we nl today, it goes 7 ways but the only 2 deaths are picked by mefia, we technically have 1/3 to win from anyones town pov, considering a few townies might never get lynched d3 it could go higher, 40%+

-> Either we pick a lynch target today that is chosen by town (which might be the D3 lynch anyway) and we got to 6 way D3 mylo or lynch for the victory of either side which could be cool, where we will lynch for possible autowin.
What that does is we uses our ml to makes for a better town for a better D3 try at ending gaming mefias.

[CloudKicker]

Personnaly i believe that USING our D3

-> on a town that has 6 players over 7
-> on a town where theres at least one death that was chosen by town
-> the possibility of having lynched 1 mefia already on d2, so possibly no stress to lynch correctly more than so than the others days

VS

-> on a town with 7 players
-> if we mislynch, we still have 5 way lylo, so we have 1 shot at win and then 1 shot at not losing
-> the only 2 deaths that happened ingame were chosen by scum which leads to
-> our lynch will probably be the scummiest/most fosed player

->Theres also the cool strat that, mefia literraly cannot bus in autoloss d3, meaning even if we might mislynch, we could get great reads via the night flip for the 5 way lylos


hard to pick

[CloudKicker]

Also i dont know if anyone noticed by, we could probably check who was online at the end of the day when the no-lynch was forced, anyone who couldve hammered and didnt was playing against town victory condition and thats coming from the guy who know the slot's alignement. As mefia i wouldve not hammered there because i would assume town would go back on the lynch and blame the lack of traction because it was on a red slot, it wasnt. The actual scum gain wasnt to get a mislynch, it was to get a no-lynch and to resume the very same mislynch on my slot the very next day, no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.

[JasonWazza]

Its not even indicated in the mod's post, i wouldve totally overlooked it

Did you read the mod post?

It's in the setup preview.

Also

Vote Count 2.2

[4] No Lynch: Tenshii, Creature, Börk Börk, TheSoldier,

Not voting: CloudKicker, SnarkySnowman, Gamma Emerald, Pepchoninga,

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2017-02-08 01:35:05)

[Tenshii]

UNVOTE: No Lynch

Calculating some statistics

[Börk Börk]

nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duh

Jesus Christ, if we were in a situation that merited lynching someone then I would policy lynch you asap.

[Tenshii]

No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day

2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)

28% + (72% * 13%) =

37% Town Win

Lynch Today

2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)

(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =

36% Town Win

Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.

no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.

Get bodied.

[Tenshii]

VOTE: No Lynch

[CloudKicker]

nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duh

Jesus Christ, if we were in a situation that merited lynching someone then I would policy lynch you asap.

tote a scum post ftr

[CloudKicker]

No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day

2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)

28% + (72% * 13%) =

37% Town Win

Lynch Today

2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)

(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =

36% Town Win

Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.

no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.

Get bodied.

tenshi ure that kind of players arent you, i outed what really matters in the 2 scenarios, odd does not matter

[CloudKicker]

I should stop random replacing in table with this guy of roster

[CloudKicker]

kind of* anyway im going to vote mefia since no one else is going to

VOTE: bork

[CloudKicker]

FTR i am playing as if tenshi's slot is cleared, i will never consider this slot before lylo i suggest everyone do the same

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE: thesoldier i see ure celtic slot, no fun

I see

[Gamma Emerald]

ready to hammer nl

[CloudKicker]

Zzzzzzzz

[SnarkySnowman]

Fuck your no lynching. Let's use the day. We know tea was town, now what

[CloudKicker]

Ty snowman

[CloudKicker]

borring game full of boring people

[CloudKicker]

VOTE: no lynch

kill me mafia or ill wreck you tomorow

[CloudKicker]

lets ask for a speed night please, theres only 1 kill to pick and no prs cmon

@mod : im voting for a speed night

[CloudKicker]

mfw i replace in a game and i have more post than everyone else but my pred-slot in 2 days when it started 20 days ago

[JasonWazza]

Vote Count 2.3 (END)

[5] No Lynch: Tenshii, Creature, Börk Börk, TheSoldier, CloudKicker,

Not voting: SnarkySnowman, Gamma Emerald, Pepchoninga,

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2017-02-08 01:35:05)