STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER


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Post Post #12425 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:38 am

Post by mastin2 »

Also, would love to see what you think of what these things mean:
In post 12420, Reasonably Rational wrote:A50's role: he had a 1 shot watcher variant that refilled on season finales. It allowed him to target a player and know if they performed an action on someone else, and whether that action was harmful to the target. At +2 stress and during season finales, the power allowed him to learn exactly who they targeted, and what the exact action was.
In post 3226, Varsoon wrote:
I think we better double-check.

Each Climax Phase, you may target a player to learn your choice of one of the following:
-Who they targeted on any Climax phase of your choice.
-Who they chose to ally with during any Episode of your choice.
-Who targeted them on any Climax phase of your choice.
-Which action they took on any Climax phase of your choice (you may only do this if you have information on who they targeted).
In post 10229, Varsoon wrote:
Oh, Ruby, you're so forgetful!

During the Climax Phase, you may use your action to learn which players targeted you during the previous Climax Phase.
If you are allied with a player, this action will instead tell you which types of actions were used on you.
I'll be using basic descriptors such as 'Investigative', 'Protective', 'Blocking', etc.
During the Season Finale, you may have me privately confirm one of these sets of information to your Alliance members.
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Post Post #12426 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:00 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

There's not anything for me to paraphrase Mastin. Cerberus literally directly quoted what we said. The large season finale PT with Titus and Shiro is large and will take some time and again need Varsoon's approval, but is in the works. I had intended to go into detail on exactly what day and time we said things to fuzzy so you could see that there really was a progression on my read on her, and when I said I was going to test her by offering her the win con she claimed and my reaction when she refused to take it and how all of that happened before any discussion of whom fuzzy should shoot arose (since it has been suggested we were steering him towards shooting her right from the word go). Unfortunately that is not going to be allowed because date/time specificity is a no-no. I will put things in chronological order for you if you like though.

The best I can offer you is answers to questions you may have, since it makes no sense for me to paraphrase myself when we're being allowed to give you our exact words.

As for the pearl points thing; I agree with Cerberus. I cannot figure out a way for the math to realistically work for someone to get 100 pearl points. I have to make absolutely absurd implausible assumptions to even get close.

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Post Post #12427 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:29 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

Spoiler: D2 Alliance:
D2 alliance, Yume and RR. Same deal, paraphrase what she said, direct quote what we said.
Yume: Says hi, and makes a reference to Jasper and Lapis Lazuli(she makes such references throughout, I'm still uncertain if these were references to the other crystal gems, or if she had used her hood creating power and she was talking about whoever she made a hood with).
Cerb:"Lol.

Point of allying with you was to claim our event and see if you/mastin could coordinate with making it work optimally for us. There's a vote involved, and we need to make sure the right person ends up receiving the benefit. Details when I get to a computer."
Yume: Confused about us trusting her enough to claim, and wonders if it's flavor related.
Cerb: Quotes her previous post(which was quite short, my paraphrase added the obvious meaning behind a short sentence), then"There are 4 options for your flavor, though only one is unquestionable, arrived at through a simple logical process.

1) Among her town reads, mastin would not have chosen you to friendly neighbor+gain a neighborhood with.
2) This means your slot selection was due to the mechanic she employed itself.
3) This means it was based on the role you rolled.
4) Mastin NEVER said you were conftown as in, rhe moderator had stated you were conftown.
5) Therefore you're conftown as a result of something else related to the effect. Most likely thing is either a flavor claim OR(more likely) moderator confirmed flavor.
6) So, you must be a role with near certain town flavor: One of the crystal gems.
7) Any of the gems are possible, BUT I don't believe Mastin would assume any gem except for Steven himself was town.

So, you're almost definitely Steven, and if not, you're one of the Crystal Gems, and such was confirmed by the moderator to mastin.

So you're safe to talk to. I wouldn't be saying all this right now except I'm pretty sure scum should have already figured it out."
Yume: Sucks that you figured that out even though we didn't want to give it away. She did use "we" here, another one of the hints about the CG being a separate faction.
Cerb:"It's possible they didn't figure it out. I mean, it requires one knows mastin and yourself and other people she put at the top of her town list, and understands that it's unlikely she would have chosen you over other options she had, since there were others she townread more (iirc) and others who generally have more of a thread presence.


I'm gonna summarize here cause I'm still comfy down here and my room is really fucking hot:

Our event (which we will be able to trigger tonight unless we have another scum lynch and this one flips immediately, OR an event lowers the stress) allows town to vote for a single slot who will receive either a gunsmith shot, a one shot passive bp, or a lightning rod. Town slots give someone 3 points if they voted for themselves, 2 points if they're voting for their ally, and 1 point if they vote for anyone else. Scum slots have all their vote values halved.

We told Titus about this because in Suikoden Mafia she used a similar power to get scum to basically out themselves. She suggested we just use it without warning anyone, and call for a mass vote claim afterwards.

My concern is that thus vote will end up torn between you, mastin, and OWK, and some slot scum throw their votes behind will get the benefits, sooo I'm here to work with you and mastin to try to get at least 3 votes focused on a single slot when the event happens."
Yume: Tells something about our previous posts is wrong, but doesn't specify what, and makes fun of our use of logic, and suggests that ther'es something obvious we're missing.
Cerb:"Are you talking about the reasoning I used regarding your likely flavor, or about the event thing?

And we don't really need to say anything more about your flavor. There are limited options as far as I'm concerned, and you shouldn't work to correct me. I was just letting you know that if my reasoning is true, scum could have figured it out too(especially with OWK announcing that your flavor is definitely town), so take appropriate precautions.

What are your thoughts on the event thing? Feel free to share it with mastin."
Yume: Clarifies that she was talking about FB(referring to something in thread without giving specifics, obviously the FB being removed from the game thing, but I'm not sure what exact part of what I said prompted her to make that comment, would need to check time stamps versus thread.)
Cerb:"Oh. I'm not really sure what I said about it that I could be wrong on lol, other than whether or not it was a scum kill. I assume mastin explained to you what she knows about it and why she knows FB is dead? Again, not something I need to know more about, just gonna take your and mastins words at face value on it. It would be good to know if it was the scum kill or not, but I don't know how mastin could possibly know that, so if she knows anything about it it means it probably wasn't. "
Yume: Mastin doesn't trust you, and then she refers back to the obvious thing we're missing.
Cerb:"There are obvious answers, yes. Either you or her caused it to happen, most likely. And, umm. Just tell her about the thing please and when it happens pick the same person then, I guess. I'll try to pick whoever I think you guys would choose."
Drixx:"I don't just want to STOP Cluster Yume ... I want to work out a way to get scum to be forced help. I think it's pretty easy but you should run it by Mastin.

The idea is that we announce we have a plan and that town watchers/trackers should focus on top scumspects because anyone taking an action will be considered scum. I mean it's a gambit because we don't know if we have the PRs necessary to actually catch scum, but the scum team can't really know either, so they have to choose between using their abilities (and potentially getting caught, which is as good as a cop guilty) or not using their abilities and helping us beat their own event.

Sometimes simple is the best. What do you think?"
Yume: Agrees
Drixx:"Well ... it counts on any town watchers/trackers realizing that they should NOT actually use their ability. We can't tell them that. We have to say they should and trust them to realize what we're doing. The idea is to make the scum fear that if they act they could be caught and thus force them to help us defeat their event.

It's a gambit, because I don't think we can afford to actually use actions. We have no idea how many points we need, but it's obviously going to be a lot because it's a Varsoon theme game and that means lots of PRs and the ability to get 3 points out of 2 people and having 2 nights to accumulate points ... that's going to be a HIGH bar to clear.

Run it by Mastin though. She may think of a better way to scare scum into helping defeat their own event."
Yume: Says she will do as requested.
Drixx:"We probably need to ask Varsoon in private if triggering events counts or not. I think it probably shouldn't count because they aren't abilities and I think they're all one time. Ours is and A50 said his was.

@Varsoon: Does withholding using an event that could be triggered give points?"
Drixx:"By the way Yume; what I just did in the game is intentional. I want to see who will jump on that and try to use it against us.

In the context of what I was saying, the only thing that would be "obvious" to everyone is me not posting again in the main game thread. By putting the word scum in there, I'm trying to see if I can bait scum into outing themselves to try and push our lynch, since it was pretty close to going through so fast so early in the day. Anyone who reads that sentence and tries to say that I would be saying that "obviously I didn't post in the scum PT" or something like that will be REALLY stretching, which makes them either REALLY confbiased or scum.

I don't know if it will work or not. I debated whether or not to do the "EbWoP" post or not. Let's see :)"
Drixx:"We have a winner! Creature bites."
Yume: More generic agreement
Drixx:"I gambit a lot. Misdirection is one of the most powerful tools at our disposal in mafia."
Yume: Me too, I was testing you with the cluster stuff, and you passed.
Varsoon:Answers the q uestion, which he also answered in the main thread.
Drixx:"Okay Yume. You have a lot to relay to Mastin. You should be sure to let her know that the top 3 vote receivers during "Beach-a-palooza" will be announced and have their point totals given. Also be sure she knows that scum votes count for only half. There may be a way to set up using the event in such a way that those mechanics out scum. Counting on you to relay info to her since putting it in the thread makes it useless."
Yume: Done.
Drixx:"Okay cool. I just hope Mastin will consider it. We've been trying basically since the start of the game to find town and figure out how to use this event to maximum utility. Getting a cop check into conftown hands plus having a chance to catch scum is really powerful."
Yume: Mastin should win beach-a-palooza.
Cerb:"It informs scum so they know to not shoot your allies. :/

And that's the plan. We just want to make sure votes don't get split between mastin and other highly townread options."
Yume: Quotes my last post, and says she's gonna protect town somehow.
Yume: Admits to flavor ignorance outside of her role, but personally likes Lapis and Jasper.
Cerb: Quotes the previous, then"Oh, okay. Lol. Got it.:D And okay. I suppose that makes sense. Reasonable gambit to virtually doc protect them."
Yume: What else do you want to talk about?
Cerb:"I have a headache. "
Yume: youtube video of a SU song.
Drixx:"Yume... we can't unilaterally decide who gets the reward. The event will lock the game thread for 48 hours and everyone will vote for someone. Scum votes count half as much points as town votes.

So ... it will be down to everyone voting who gets to choose the reward they get. Mastin should win without us having to out this information, which means we could potentially catch scum voting for one of their own. That's why I wanted to co-ordinate with Titus (remember what she did in Suikoden with the fruit code and the thread lock vote?) and now with you and Mastin. If only really strong almost certainly town people know, we have a good chance of not only getting the great reward in conftown hands, but also if we can figure it out we could maybe catch scum as well."
Yume: Your plan doesn't stop the cluster even if we get some guilties out of it.
Yume: Not certain that the whole town will make mastin win beach-a-palooza
Cerb:"Yeah, Drixx and I have differing thoughts on this. I think it's most important to firmly establish a bloc of slots who we know are going to vote for mastin, amd have them ally outside the bloc to maximize the number of votes on mastin. That ensures she receives the reward, which I believe to be paramount.

Drixx wants to be super clever and try to catch scum with it, but since only the top three vote getters will be revealed, I view this as implausible. I suppose if we have a strong enough circle of probtown. In out alliances, who all vote for mastin, low vote count anomalies championed by scum may show up which otherwise wouldn't?"
Yume: Tells us she can get someone else to vote with us and that we shoudl know who that person is(thus confirming to us that she's DEFINITELY Steven, rather than just one of the gems).
Cerb:"*sigh* you weren't supposed to confirm whether you were a gem or steven, but yes. Working with them as well would be very strong. That's 5 slots, up to 10 allied who could all vote for mastin.

You probably shouldn't tell them any of the details though, just push them to vote for mastin along with their alliance mate."
Yume: Suspicious that we immediately came up with 5 slots who could vote for mastin.
Cerb:quotes the previous, and then "Yume, RR, OWK, Mastin, and the mystery person who I won't name but we both know who it is.

All of us can ally others, for a total of 10 individuals we could organize."
Yume: Want to know how I know who the mystery person is.
Cerb: Quotes yume's previous post, then "Yume. You told me that if I had been paying attention , I would know who it is. I posited two possible scenarios, which gave you four possible flavors. Only one of those flavors has had anything happen that is so bvious that I should know if I'm paying attention. Maybe I'm missing something you said some unexplained town read you've expressed, but I don't believe you've expressed any such thing in thread."
Yume: Notes that we had mentioned four flavors, and that maybe those flavors had a pt, so maybe she's talking about one of them.(Thus confirming to us that the gems have PT together)
Yume: Not claiming anything, just pointing out something you've missed.
Yume: Don't tell anyone what you've figured out about who I am or jasper will hurt you.
Cerb:quotes the PT possibility post from yume, then "That absolutely occurred to me, but I found a four man masonry implausible, and there's *no* reason at all why I would "know" who they were if I had been "paying attention" In that case.

(Plus you just said you could BG your allies)

Not relevant though, doesn't really matter. All that matters is the potential to rally 10 votes for mastin, making it basically impossible for anyone else to win, and very likely that any low vote count slots scum might be trying to sneak in will show up.

-Cerb

Pedit: lol. Lips sealed."
Cerb:"We're probably getting lynched today anyway, eventually, so we won't have any more alliance to spill the beans in anyways."
Yume: Can you use your event before you get lynched today?
Cerb:"We have to activate it at night, so yeah. Only if we make it to night phase wilmth stress at +1 or greater can we trigger it."
Drixx:"So no ... we cannot activate the event before the town lynches us. Activate at night and the next exposition phase starts locked for 48 hours. (This is why I crumbed to Titus the way I did). Was hoping to pull of a Suikoden repeat :)"
Drixx:"It's really frustrating to me that it's conftown driving the lynch on us too. Out of the whole wagon, maybe 2 slots are questionable. Like ... when town lines up to lynch one of the best town players, and scum can just stay away from the wagon, that hurts PoE later on."
Yume: Talks about shiro's role overlapping with hers, with no specifics.
Drixx:"Do you believe that it was just a co-incidence and Shiro really just made up a power like yours, or do you think something like a rolecop might be in play and that could be a slip or a claim designed to get you to counter or something?"
Yume: Dunno.
Cerb:"Oh. I just realized. If you're going to ally with Titus, you're decreasing the membership of our mastin for beachapalooza winner by 2 (the allies you could each potentially get on board). Given what you've said you can do, it's probably for the best, but I just wanted to note it."
Yume: I just want to be her ally, the mechanical stuff is real though but I only said it to convince her.
Cerb:"Ya, that's cool, I was just noting it. "
Yume: Greets us
Cerb:"*waves*

Yo Yume. Working now, just keeping up with the thread. What's on your mind?"
Yume: posts a picture of Lapis Lazuli
Yume: She's just like me
Cerb:"That....makes me really sad. "
Cerb:"I'm really sorry you feel that way.

Umm.

Feel free to message me on your main and mine anytime you'd like to chat, k?"
Yume: we both act stronger than we are.
Yume: I won't, don't want to be replaced.
Cerb:"I understand. I didn't mean right now, that was an open offer, anytime you'd care to take me up on it."
Drixx:"Hey Yume. Got a lot of info for you. We made a bad assumption and I was looking at our role PM because of Cerb's speculation about a possible 3rd party faction (I think he might be right, but that's a separate issue that I'll address at the end of my post), and I looked at our ability and realized something. Assuming Mastin wins the Beach-A-Palooza, she will be able to choose from the following prizes:

1.) One-Shot Kill immunity, consumed when next targeted by a kill (so this is passive; doesn't have to be activated).
2.) One-shot Climax-phase investigate a target to see if they are capable of killing a player.
3.) One-shot Climax-phase mass-redirect, which causes all other abilities to redirect to the user. (Lightning Rod basically)

Since we're town and we don't have any way to kill someone (no vig shots or anything like that), we assumed we would be cleared by the 2nd item. You can look at our ISO and see us refer to it being able to clear us. We were WRONG. We need you to tell Mastin that if she takes that reward, she should NOT waste it on us. It will return a positive on us, and we freely admit it. I asked Varsoon just now and he confirmed that we will show up as having the ability to kill. The only way we can explain this is to full claim. I'm a little concerned about this, because if Cerb's theory about a 3rd party team is correct, you would almost certainly be in that group, but I think that group probably can win with town, so I'm going to risk it and share so you can pass along to Mastin.

We are Sadie. Under our flavor text it says we're aligned with the town faction and human. At the bottom of our role PM it says we're aligned with Earth and that in order to win, all threats to Earth have to be removed AND an Earth-aligned player must be alive.

That second part is why I think Cerb is right about a 3rd faction because otherwise it would be impossible to have all threats to Earth removed from the game but have all Earth-aligned players dead. I think there must be a third party group of Crystal Gems who have the goal of eliminating all the scum team, but they don't need any of us humans alive to win.

Our ability is called "Just Get Out of My Life!" and during the season finale (day 4, day 8, day 12, etc...) if we hammer a player, that player is killed -- no effect may keep them alive in any way. - The part that I made bold and italicized is the part that Varsoon says will make the investigate confirm we are capable of killing a player. We didn't think that it would count because it's not actually a kill. It's just finishing a lynch; however, Varsoon says it will return a positive. Make sure Mastin knows this. She can ask him questions about what will or will not return a yes once she has the ability to choose her reward. She should be able to confirm that our ability will show up on that investigate.

Our event is Beach-a-palooza and we already claimed all that.

So yeah: the biggest thing that Mastin needs to know is that using that on us is a WASTE. We will show up as capable of killing. We will claim this in the main thread if needed. If she wants to take the investigate instead of the kill immunity, she should use it on someone else since it would be wasted confirming what we just told you.


My thinking about the 3rd party faction is that you and Mastin a probably a part of it, and I think it PROBABLY wins with town, because our win condition is written in such a way that it makes no sense that a 3rd party group would win and town wouldn't UNLESS all of us are dead. I'm not asking you to confirm or deny or comment on this. I'm not fishing here. If we're correct about this, sooner or later we'll find out via a flip so it's irrelevant really. I just wanted to let you know what we're thinking in case we're on the right track.

Let me know if you have any questions."
Yume: confirms that the gems are 3p and mastin isn't one of them.
Drixx:"Yume. Don't just give out info like that. Like ... if you are telling the truth you don't want to out that. This site HATES 3rd parties. Admitted 3rd party are policy lynches to most people.

I mean ... it's nice to know that we figured it out (presuming you are being honest; the part I'm worried about is whether you win with town or not), but you gotta keep info safe.

Please pass on the info to Mastin; she needs to know so that she can ask Varsoon the proper questions when she wins beach-a-palooza. That should let her confirm that we will come up as having the ability to kill because of our ability to hammer during finale episodes and the hammered player cannot avoid being hammered (this implies that scum may have a way to get out of being hammered, by the way; make sure Mastin realizes that). That will also make it so she doesn't waste the investigate if she chooses that reward."
Yume: Told her.
Yume: I'm basically town and I don't want to lie anymore.
Drixx:"You don't want to publicly claim 3rd party. Does Mastin know? She just made a post a few minutes ago that any 3rd party claim will get lynched.

Cerb and I are going to tell the game our theory but we're not going to say a word about you confirming it. We need town to go look at their win condition and realize that having a third group who probably wins with town should alter how they read interactions. Cerb and I are doing a complete overhaul of how we're reading things now that we realized it."
Yume: I never told her and never will.
Yume: I can help you convince the town without claiming by just vouching for your reasoning.
Cerb:"Hmm. That's true.

That would save Drixx and I from having to figure out how to not actually say anything explicit about any specific slots.

Feel free to do so."
Cerb:"Just so you know what someone else may have been able to figure out based on the game:

Klingon is a gem as well.
Your faction is able to recruit peridot. This belief is based on klingons peridot "obsession" and your consistent mention of Lapis+Jasper, who are tied to Peridot.
You believed Firebringer was peridot, and that bubbling effect could have allowed you to recruit them. I don't know if they actually are peridot or not though, and whether or not you recruited them/actually did vanillaize them, or if they're just saying that so they can privately arrange to give their inventions to you guys.
If mastin isn't a gem, I have no idea who they are. Basically one of Mastin and Skybird is Connie, and the other is...I don't know? Maybe Lapis, who doesn't count as a crystal gem technically? Or maybe Lion? Or umm..idk man. Steven has too many friends.

Anyways, yeah. That's where my game solving stuff is at right now.


Don't confirm or deny ANY of this, even if I'm super wrong. If I'm super wrong, just laugh about it to yourself please. :) I just want you to aware of what others may have figured out at a minimum."
Yume: lol
Yume: I just love jasper nad lapis.
Cerb:quotes the laugh post, then"<3"
Yume: You telling me to stop telling you stuff makes me want to tell you stuff.
Drixx:"We believe that the Crystal Gems will help us win. Therefore it's in our best interest not to know. What we don't know we can't accidentally leak.

For example: there's a lot of places in the game thread where strange phrasing and such made us sure there is a PT out there unclaimed, which we think is probably the Crystal Gems factional PT. We don't think anyone meant to reveal it, but just by knowing they leaked it. We're really careful, but no matter how careful you are, if you know something you can accidentally give clues. If you don't know, there's no way you can ever reveal it, even accidentally.

So in this case, the less we know the better."
Cerb:"Yume, could you please tell mastin to let the game know about the fact that there is very possibly a scum mechanism for avoid death by lynch? Either a resurrection or a straight up lynchproof? If we share it we're less likely to live to the season finale to potentially shut down that effect, so we probably shouldn't share it, but mastin already had basically infinite attention on her and has consistently displayed additional knowledge, so it wouldn't be too surprising if she were to share the information and it wouldn't increase her risk at all."
Yume: I will.
Yume: Scum can't resurrect, and mastin can tell you the details.
Cerb:"Understood. Yeah, the resurrection thing seemed less likely than straight lynchproof, but it was the only other possibility I could think of. "
Yume: The town doesn't agree with your theory.
Cerb:"Yeah. :/

I mean, all I can really do is present the evidence, and make sure people aren't doing dumb things because they're not aware of the possibility."
Drixx:"The obvious reason not to say anything more is because Crystal Gems 3rd party faction, assuming we're right, already demonstrated the ability to "remove" someone from the game, which helps town win condition. They also are likely to have really strong abilities and events. We don't want to point out the places where people leaked unintentionally, because that basically outs the people most likely to BE the group in question, and so we can't point the game to the strongest evidence.

Also; tell Mastin to stop being silly. Our ability really is what I said it is. Tell her that yes I know that it is basically the ability I fake claimed in SMITE and yes I understand that might make her wary, but it's just a co-incidence. We really do have the ability to hammer someone on finale episodes and no ability or effect can prevent them from being lynched. The fact that we have this implies that scum have the ability to escape lynch somehow.

At this point, I'm ready to just ignore her and move on but if we could get our best people all working together, it would be so much better."
Yume:Only one other CG can bubble until we both die.
Yume: It's hard to convince her.
Yume: Our win condition also needs us to keep town alive.
Drixx:"Don't share any more Yume. Please. We figured out the third party thing based upon people phrasing things in ways that didn't make sense. If we know, we could leak. We don't need or want to know.

I'm sure your group has more than just the bubble ability, and I suspect you have really powerful abilities (We were Steven in SU and we had the ability to bodyguard AND not die doing so, for example), and probably really good events. We do NOT want to say anything that points out who you guys are to the scum team. Let us protect you guys so you can help us win. Don't tell us more. I know you want to (and I understand that urge), but just don't.


P-edit: Interesting. But PLEASE stop telling us stuff."
Yume: agrees to stop telling us stuff and just tell it to jaspis instead.(still dunno who jaspis was)
Yume: There's lot's I could tell and I really want to.
Yume: I want to flavor claim.
Drixx:"And I would personally love to know all of it. And I will: AFTER the game. Knowing now won't help anyone. Trust me ... part of me wants to just let you spill it all, but that would be selfish and it wouldn't help.

It's taking considerable willpower to keep telling you to stop."
Drixx:"Umm... we worked out who you are awhile ago. You gave it away when you said you could BG."
Yume: public flavor claim.
Drixx:"You said you could BG in public, and anyone who looks at the first SU game will see that Steven is the BG. Therefore, it's most probable you are Steven and anyone paying attention probably knows. Don't confirm or deny. Varsoon likes to change things up, so we may have come to the wrong conclusion, but it doesn't matter if we're right about which person you are."
Yume: I'll be malachite in the future.
Yume: I'll probably die soon if everyone knows who I am now.
Yume: After I die tell them I'm gonna be Malachite.
Drixx:"Okay. Only if you stop telling me stuff though. Like ... pretty sure you just said that if you die you will resurrect. That's something that NOBODY should know but you."
Yume: You're wrong, I didn't say I have that power.
Drixx:"I misunderstood then. You said if you die to tell the game you'll come back.

But that's also besides the point. If the gem group has a resurrect, then scum almost certainly has one too, or it wouldn't be balanced. I think we should assume scum has some kind of resurrect or else several ways to avoid death. Maybe both?"
Cerb:"Let's...just stop this line of conversation.

Moving on. How do you feel about the DGB/Mathblade thing? The late ascetic thing is super irritating to me and I think I might be a little biased towards just wanting to lynch anyone who does it on principle."
Yume:Mathblade is not town.
Yume: I meant I'd be malachite in the next game.
Drixx:"I misunderstood. Then again ... you said that there was a resurrect in play and then said you'd come back, so it makes sense why I would misunderstand. And if you do have the BG ability like we had in the first SU, I can't imagine a better target to resurrect and protect. But I have way less info to work with.

Is mathblade scum because of the late ascetic claim, the prior play on the slot, or because of something else mathblade has said?"
Drixx:"Also I disagree with Cerberus. I think that the late Ascetic claim is reason to pause and re-evaluate."
Yume: cheep cheep reference, telling us that mastin=centipeetle, though it takes me abit to get it.
Yume: More references to that episode
Cerb:"I'll be honest, I've been trying to figure out what you're hinting at and I'm drawing a blank. :(

That's okay though."
Yume: More references.
Cerb:"OHHH.

Lol.

You just confirmed a suspicion of mine. :P

Like, I literally *just* expressed this thought to Drixx."
Yume: I want to read your PT.
Yume: That's connected to what you asked.
Cerb:quotes the last two Yume posts, then"Will do, you'll have to read our huge walls of chat logs to find where I told him my theory. :)"


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Post Post #12428 (ISO) » Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:59 am

Post by Shiro »

RR seems so town in these conversations that it makes it so hard for me to see him as a must scum.

Was it confirmed as impossible that both of us are town?
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Post Post #12429 (ISO) » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:04 am

Post by Shiro »

Tbh tho if you are scum rr, I can't out town you even though I am town and this is probably precisely why you kept me here if scum. The thing is I have to prove to Mastin you are scum over me and I can't prove to myself that you are scum.

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Post Post #12430 (ISO) » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:12 am

Post by Shiro »

Like honestly the one thing I have is the possible why you left Mastin alive here even though she was against you since ever.

Which would be

1)Random bubbling you was something that could lose you the Game that you had no control over, contrary to Mastin were you could fight your case
2) my weakness to appear town and Mastin statement that you vs me is the worst. Meaning the scenario of outperforming me and getting me lynched was highly likely.

But that isn't s case against you. That is a hypothesis of potential motive over a certain action.
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Post Post #12431 (ISO) » Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:24 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12428, Shiro wrote:RR seems so town in these conversations that it makes it so hard for me to see him as a must scum.

Was it confirmed as impossible that both of us are town?
Us both being town was explicitly confirmed by Varsoon as being possible, but mastin2 believes it's most productive to treat today as a traditional lylo involving a conftown, so she can get the most engagement out of both of us.

That's why we haven't voted you. We just aren't sure that you MUST be scum, and if you aren't, the most likely reason for that( a grapes/A50 team using some modified scum version of the event the gems had) means a no lynch is our only chance. Of course, a no lynch means we LOSE if you are scum.

@mastin: not ignoring your question, just need to refresh my memory on Varsoons previous utilization of very similar roles.
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Post Post #12432 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:04 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Uhg, I'm WAY behind on my timeline here. :?

We have five days.
I'm not even half-way through the things I need to ask of you.
I haven't even really begun to go into the level of depth that I want to.

This isn't an ideal situation to be in, but at this stage, I really need those answers.
Like, Drixx I still want you to paraphrase your role PM using YOUR words.
And I still want both of you to answer about .
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Post Post #12433 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:12 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Like. I'm not sure how to go about this right now.

I guess...I know this is placing a lot of work on you right now.

But:
-My top priority is Drixx paraphrasing his role PM.
-My second priority is you two answering .
-My third priority is having PTs be summarized by each player.
When those are done, there will be additional tasks I have to ask of everyone, but:
-Another priority I have is to ask:
Everyone:
I want you to basically give, in your own words, a summary of the entire game.
Here, not a paraphrase. :P GOD no, not a paraphrase of the entire fucking game. But I want you to give a summary of how the game has progressed, start to finish, giving any and all details you deem relevant. Highlights of days. Relevant things. Anything you see as being critical to the game.

I know I'm asking a ton of you to do this, but it's important.

-
Everyone:
I want you, using a simple argument, to lay out why you are town. Lay out the facts, highlight the important parts.
-
Everyone:
I want you, as succinctly as possible, to lay out why the other party is scum. RR, why Shiro would be scum. Shiro, why RR would be scum. Lay out the important facts as you see them.

Basically, I'm looking to see you present all the relevant information for the game, as you see it.
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Post Post #12434 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:16 pm

Post by mastin2 »

And I am sorry to everyone involved in this game. I'm doing as much work here as I can manage. It's hard. I'm getting tired. Exhausted. And I'm only accomplishing a FRACTION of the work I laid out for myself to do. I'm not going to be able to do what I want to do, what I arguably SHOULD be doing. Time's just disappearing way too fast, and I'm being far too inattentive to this game. It's my top priority, at least it should be, and yet my time is being spent ineffectively.

I promise I'm reviewing my notes, but I'm not doing the reading I need to do in order to get the most, maximum, efficiency out of said notes.
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Post Post #12435 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:43 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

Read the day 2 alliance chat Mastin. I went into GREAT detail about our role. It's exactly what I would say, which is why I'm sort of confused you're asking me to just say it again?

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Post Post #12436 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:00 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

Oh and can you be a little more specific in what you want from a game summary? I'm pretty sure you don't want me to just tell you every thing that happened because that's basically in the first post already. It follows that you don't actually want a bland summary of "On day one the following happened: an event was triggered which mod confirmed that farside and beeboy were not masons together... (etc.. etc...)"

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Post Post #12437 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:02 pm

Post by mastin2 »

You didn't fullclaim in there. I literally just read it.
You left out your roleblock ability.

As for a game summary: what has transpired in the game, as you see it. Even if you're describing the same facts, different perspectives will lead to different word usage and right now that could help me.
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Post Post #12438 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:16 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12437, mastin2 wrote:You didn't fullclaim in there. I literally just read it.
You left out your roleblock ability.

As for a game summary: what has transpired in the game, as you see it. Even if you're describing the same facts, different perspectives will lead to different word usage and right now that could help me.
Okay.

So we had a roleblock ability. It had a long name but it's basically "you're only my friend when it's convenient". If someone allied with us and then chose to ally with someone else, we could choose, as an action, to passively roleblock them. We would have to decide each climax whether to continue doing so or not, and if we stopped doing so we could not do it again unless we again allied with the player and they again chose to ally elsewhere.

I'll begin working on a game summary. Please do recall that I had a water spilled into my computer issue partway through the game, so you're going to get my best recall on some things simply because this is a massive thread and we're running out of time.

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Post Post #12439 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:21 pm

Post by Shiro »

I cI can give you a summarry but it will be all over the place. Just telling you from the get go.

As for reasons for RR to be scum. Sadly as I said a few posts ago. I don't have them. If he is scum, I cannot see him as scum.
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Post Post #12440 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:38 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Alright.
Next question.

This is actually my top priority question right now.
EVERYONE:
I want you to rank every one of the remaining four roles, most to least, in terms of the following:
"If this role were scum, how useful it would be in disrupting town synergy".
And then give the reasons why you ranked them most to least in that order.
The roles have all been made known in their entirety.
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Post Post #12441 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:35 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12440, mastin2 wrote:Alright.
Next question.

This is actually my top priority question right now.
EVERYONE:
I want you to rank every one of the remaining four roles, most to least, in terms of the following:
"If this role were scum, how useful it would be in disrupting town synergy".
And then give the reasons why you ranked them most to least in that order.
The roles have all been made known in their entirety.
A50
RR
Grapes
Shiro

A50 moves to the bottom if there's some clause known only to the scum team that indicates their factional kill can't be enhanced by his ally bonus.

A50 because enhanced kills naturally remove all synergistic options involving a given slot. A plan is made or a threat perceived, and it is permanently removed.
RR because roleblocks are naturally disruptive to organization, though the limitation we have would make it more of a way to shut down a threat long term rather than actively disrupt things being planned, since it would require setting up an alliance and then arranging for another alliance, so it's at least a couple nights of delay.
Grapes because the passive disruption of alliance bonuses is disruptive in a similar fashion to RR's ability, but aimed at a different part of roles. If used offensively it's also more overt than our own, limiting it's usefulness.
Shiro's power's as claimed don't seem to have any disruptive effects, other than preventing negative effects originating from a specific slot from targeting it for a single phase. Rather limited use.

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Post Post #12442 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:34 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

So(this is partially in response to your question Mastin, but also tangential to it), I've been thinking about what our actual reasonable possible scenarios are here.

The only solo scum possibilities are A50 and ourselves, UNLESS the gems lied or were misinformed about the way the bubbling works. We have to assume they weren't, so we'll work with that as a solid premise.

We're town, therefore A50 is the only solo scum possibility.

In a universe where we're looking at solo scum, grapes is town, and therefore did not lie about how his event worked. That means that were A50 scum, he would have died rather than being removed from the game by grapes' power.

This means A50 can't be solo scum.

So, we must be in a two scum universe.

The possibilities for that are Grapes/A50, and Shiro/Grapes(Shiro/A50 is not possible, because if they were both scum then yesterday the lynch threshold would not have been increased since we would have been in MYLO).

The issue here is that a Grapes/A50 team necessitates a no lynch as the response, while a Shiro/Grapes team necessitates a lynch on Shiro as the response, and I'm not certain which of the two options is more likely.

A Grapes/A50 team requires that A50 was deliberately arguing against the release of his teammate yesterday, after seeing that everyone else appeared to be in favor of said release. It's possible that such arguments were made for the sake of delaying grapes' release since the event in question was apparently a climax event, and he may have feared that town would have defaulted to lynching Grapes had he made that claim upon his return(particularly since it would seem that he failed to mention that restriction upon his ability to random, in order to get random to return him). Given that Grapes is ALWAYS scum, the fact that he lied about his ability in order to get released doesn't have any relevance with regards to determining the likelihood of who his partner is.

The Shiro/Grapes team is, well, difficult to really find much reasoning for off the top of my head. Shiro's general lack of engagement in the game makes it rather difficult for me to determine how likely that might be.

I'll need to chat with Drixx some more to further flesh out which of those two probabiliites we weight as more likely.

Another consideration that needs to be cleared up to be absolutely certain the Shiro/A50 team is not possible. We've been working under the assumption that the Tragic Destiny modifier functions the same way Mastin's ally bonus does, that is, that it turns off in both MYLO and LYLO, but the mechanics post does specify LYLO. If it only turns off in LYLO, then it's possible that a Shiro/A50 team exists, which we'll need to weight properly as well.

@Varsoon: The universal loved modifier applied by Tragic Destiny specifies that it doesn't apply to LYLO. Does this mean it doesn't apply in MYLO? How do you define MYLO/LYLO for purposes of making that determination?


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Post Post #12443 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:06 pm

Post by mastin2 »

There's a mechanic involved that until recently, we were all forgetting about, Cerb.
If Almost50 were scum and grapes told the truth about their ability, then the stress would have plummeted to slice of life.
It did not.

As a result, the only possibilities are that Almost50 is town, or grapes lied.

The reason I don't think grapes lied at this point is many, many things, but among others is that an Almost50-grapes scumteam makes zero sense, because Almost50 was pushing for grapes's death for basically most of the game, and if that wasn't enough, Almost50-grapes as a scumteam has no reason to no-kill the night Fuzzy killed. (The main reason for a no-kill there was to not be caught and become confscum--a nonissue if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam in question.)

So realistically speaking, what I said before is now more true than ever:
We are assuming a lynch today. Because I do not view Almost50-grapes as a realistic scumteam. I haven't done the research I'd LIKE to, there, but I don't think I ever will get that far. I don't need to, however. Because if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam, I am absolutely comfortable losing to them at this juncture.

The question to ask is whether it's grapes-Shiro, or just you.
Ergo, this is basically a traditional 3p lylo now, for real.

I realized this on my own, in my notes, just recently. (So recently, I hadn't even PMed Varsoon to let him know I knew. Well, remembered what I already knew.) But now that you bring it up, I will too.

Almost50-grapes is not the scumteam.
Almost50 cannot be solo-scum because stress did not go to -4.
Almost50-Shiro is impossible because stress did not go to -4.
The only possibilities then are Shiro-grapes or Reasonably Rational alone.
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Post Post #12444 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:57 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12443, mastin2 wrote:There's a mechanic involved that until recently, we were all forgetting about, Cerb.
If Almost50 were scum and grapes told the truth about their ability, then the stress would have plummeted to slice of life.
It did not.

As a result, the only possibilities are that Almost50 is town, or grapes lied.

The reason I don't think grapes lied at this point is many, many things, but among others is that an Almost50-grapes scumteam makes zero sense, because Almost50 was pushing for grapes's death for basically most of the game, and if that wasn't enough, Almost50-grapes as a scumteam has no reason to no-kill the night Fuzzy killed. (The main reason for a no-kill there was to not be caught and become confscum--a nonissue if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam in question.)

So realistically speaking, what I said before is now more true than ever:
We are assuming a lynch today. Because I do not view Almost50-grapes as a realistic scumteam. I haven't done the research I'd LIKE to, there, but I don't think I ever will get that far. I don't need to, however. Because if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam, I am absolutely comfortable losing to them at this juncture.

The question to ask is whether it's grapes-Shiro, or just you.
Ergo, this is basically a traditional 3p lylo now, for real.

I realized this on my own, in my notes, just recently. (So recently, I hadn't even PMed Varsoon to let him know I knew. Well, remembered what I already knew.) But now that you bring it up, I will too.

Almost50-grapes is not the scumteam.
Almost50 cannot be solo-scum because stress did not go to -4.
Almost50-Shiro is impossible because stress did not go to -4.
The only possibilities then are Shiro-grapes or Reasonably Rational alone.
Oh duh. Yeah, the same reasoning that guarantees solo A50 isn't possible also precludes the A50/Shiro team.

Hmm. A50 pushing for Grapes death the entire game is, well, not something I view as significant in any way, given that grapes was NEVER in any real danger of being lynched. The closest he came was on the day he was functionally unlynchable due to your ability. However, the no kill thing is definitely major. I'll need to review some things to make sure there's absolutely no reason why they wouldn't have killed on that night, but yeah, I'm pretty damn sure you're right, and barring a hypothetical restriction to the scum factional kill that would have kept A50 from enhancing his own shot, there's absolutely no reason for a scum kill to fail that night, or for them to no kill with that pairing.

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Post Post #12445 (ISO) » Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:56 pm

Post by Shiro »

Wait grapes claimed that his ability would have killed scum?

Well damn... That blows my hope of rr being town. I am adamant on one scum.left and grapes isn't it. So he wouldn't lie.

OK as for disruption I would agree that a50 is the worst with him amplifying allies. Unless as rr said it has a clause against factional kill but even then it helps stop all Block attempt.

I would rank myself second. Not so much for my event which offensively can be used on anyone u have allied and stop them of impacting me for a whole cycle negativly but Mt other power could gave thrown town off. I could have made a permanent link for the scum with dgb that town couldn't know plus recruiting Peridot in the same manner before her conversion. While not in the same PT it would have been an amazing communication tool that would disrupt town plans when faxing normal traitor /possible hostile 3p by making them part of the in the know completely.

Grapes would come second because it faster than rr and his jail without plan or on impulse bybhim can destroy plans.

Rr for me cones last. His rb is very slow and need too much planning, his other powers are very much wildcards. Beach has far more chance to help town and his other power seems useless to me. Do we even have a way to revert death after lynch for it to be useful?
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Post Post #12446 (ISO) » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:02 am

Post by Shiro »

Btw the only time I remember rr feeling like scum to me was back in day 1 whenever drixx posted. I remember talking about this with fire back then.

That was basically also a summary of it.

We either chatted, him being suspicious of me, NE explaining my feelings about slots, my revelation moment with almost or me encouraging him not to be bored.

The rest of my pts are empty par the one with Titus and rr, nothing to summarize.

Tbh I think my creation of that PT for them was the towniest thing I have done this game funnily enough and it turned out to help scum. The irony is priceless.
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Post Post #12447 (ISO) » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:54 am

Post by Varsoon »

In post 12442, Reasonably Rational wrote:
@Varsoon: The universal loved modifier applied by Tragic Destiny specifies that it doesn't apply to LYLO. Does this mean it doesn't apply in MYLO? How do you define MYLO/LYLO for purposes of making that determination?


-Cerb
LYLO is the game state where the scum team automatically wins if one of their members is not lynched.
MYLO is the game state where the scum team automatically wins if a non-scum player is mislynched.
Tragic Destiny's loved modifier only functions in LYLO.
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Post Post #12448 (ISO) » Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:43 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12447, Varsoon wrote:
In post 12442, Reasonably Rational wrote:
@Varsoon: The universal loved modifier applied by Tragic Destiny specifies that it doesn't apply to LYLO. Does this mean it doesn't apply in MYLO? How do you define MYLO/LYLO for purposes of making that determination?


-Cerb
LYLO is the game state where the scum team automatically wins if one of their members is not lynched.
MYLO is the game state where the scum team automatically wins if a non-scum player is mislynched.
Tragic Destiny's loved modifier only functions in LYLO.
So since LYLO requires a successfull scum kill/town death during the night after the no lynch, while no scum are removed, if the game state were such that it were possible for the scum kill to fail, OR for a member of the scum team to be removed, would LYLO still occur?


-Cerb
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Post Post #12449 (ISO) » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:04 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12443, mastin2 wrote:There's a mechanic involved that until recently, we were all forgetting about, Cerb.
If Almost50 were scum and grapes told the truth about their ability, then the stress would have plummeted to slice of life.
It did not.

As a result, the only possibilities are that Almost50 is town, or grapes lied.

The reason I don't think grapes lied at this point is many, many things, but among others is that an Almost50-grapes scumteam makes zero sense, because Almost50 was pushing for grapes's death for basically most of the game, and if that wasn't enough, Almost50-grapes as a scumteam has no reason to no-kill the night Fuzzy killed. (The main reason for a no-kill there was to not be caught and become confscum--a nonissue if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam in question.)

So realistically speaking, what I said before is now more true than ever:
We are assuming a lynch today. Because I do not view Almost50-grapes as a realistic scumteam. I haven't done the research I'd LIKE to, there, but I don't think I ever will get that far. I don't need to, however. Because if Almost50-grapes is the scumteam, I am absolutely comfortable losing to them at this juncture.

The question to ask is whether it's grapes-Shiro, or just you.
Ergo, this is basically a traditional 3p lylo now, for real.

I realized this on my own, in my notes, just recently. (So recently, I hadn't even PMed Varsoon to let him know I knew. Well, remembered what I already knew.) But now that you bring it up, I will too.

Almost50-grapes is not the scumteam.
Almost50 cannot be solo-scum because stress did not go to -4.
Almost50-Shiro is impossible because stress did not go to -4.
The only possibilities then are Shiro-grapes or Reasonably Rational alone.
Scum push one another all the time for later credibility. Given that several slots (including us) were going after Grapes, and given that he would have died if not for being allied with you, A50 would have come out shining with a Grapes scum flip. As soon as you posit scum!Grapes, then what we're seeing looks like a mirror of the crystal gems thing where they commuted away out of the game, and we don't actually have a direct claim from Grapes.

Add to that the fact that we were hard defending A50
and
going after Grapes, so a Grapes scum flip along with our reasoning for why A50 must be town makes perfect sense as a way to make A50 nearly unlynchable in the end game. In fact, look at how you don't have any
evidence
, but are dismissing the pairing, simply because of that.

Like ... just because MoI says Grapes claimed his ability would kill scum and plunge stress to the minimum doesn't make that so. I get that assuming it is true allows you to eliminate some pairings (because if he's town, it's true, and I think that's sound), but you cannot eliminate Grapes+A50 as a pairing, because you cannot assume Scum!Grapes and assume the stress change claim is true simultaneously. Apart from that error, that's actually really clever logic and greatly simplifies the scenarios.

Furthermore, we already have reason to suspect Grapes was not honest about his ability. It appears that it was a climax ability, so it could
NEVER
have been used for the plan we (you and us) hammered out yesterday that guaranteed a win, and yet in order to convince Random to release him, Grapes would have had to say he would act as asked ... fully knowing that he would do no such thing. I cannot think of any plausible town motive to explain it. If town, I would expect Grapes to have told Random way early in the day yesterday that his ability was climax only so we could adjust the plan. This is pretty strong evidence for scum!Grapes, imo.

As far as the no kill goes, I see a really obvious reason for it. We're town and the gems commuted leaving only you as a conftown target and plausible mislynches. And since it was even numbers, the lack of kill wasn't really harmful. Why kill you when you were pushing us, and why kill any possible mislynch and narrow the pool when it doesn't move the end of game moment? I mean it's speculation, but hell ... there's a whole list of things that don't make sense:

I can't give you any explanation for why a scum team that contained Shiro or us would have taken a shot at MoI, given that Titus outright told us both about his passive, or WHY A50 would let Skybird get set up at risk from Xkfyu, or why A50 or us would have killed Yume given that it enabled Xkfyu to kill Skybird, or WHY a scum team with us would even have killed Yume at all, since we had allied her and could have just roleblocked her while letting Skybird work her for info all game. I mean ... you saw how much she wanted to spill to us in that alliance.

Shiro has said he didn't read that finale chat closely, so I suppose that isn't necessarily an informed blunder, but it could just as easily be Grapes and A50 with A50 passing us that info to pocket us.


You also asked earlier why we're town.

#1 - As you can now see, we have been actively game solving all game long, right from the start.
#2 - We used the alliances
precisely
how you posited we would as town, long before you ever laid out your expectation of how you expected us to behave, and always brought things into the game when the appropriate time came.
#3 - There's the pile of things we became informed of along the way as people town read us and trusted us to pass info to the gems and you, much of which ended up hurting the scum team.
#4 - You're alive. This might actually be the strongest point. I honestly thought when the day started that it would be over within 24 hours, we would be mislynched and it would be GG scum wins. You gave absolutely NO indication you would ever consider not lynching us. We're not stupid, nor are we suicidal. Someone wanted you here with us here as a target for you to go after.

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