Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)


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Post Post #1325 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:37 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1323, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1322, Aristophanes wrote:Just a thought, but do you think the Mafia have me on the list because they think I'm town, WW, or for Wine reasons?

BTD, what do you mean by "based on the posting" for me seemingly being WW?
If mafia were ww reading you, I don't think they'd be listing you because your continued existence is necessary for mafia to thin out town and highlighting the fact you aren't getting killed over and over again is bad Scum play.
But they'll have to have their WW read in there at some point for sure! 3:5 Mafia:Not ratio atm. So if they aren't listing themselves, 3/4 remaining have to be in that list and are either town or WW. That means that going into tomorrow they can be easily PoE'd I don't think that's something they want to do, so they are likely to WW hunt at this point.

As well, we're getting to the point where WW can't make an NK because it will lose them the game. Iirc Mafia need to Atchison town numbers, so if the WW kills tn and kills town,(which will be the full list for tn) and we ML today, scum win coming into the day at 3:3.

So WW isn't a big deal atm. We need to get rid of the Mafia to win this!

This post started with a different intention than it ended up with, but so be it.
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Post Post #1326 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:40 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1324, -Grey- wrote:Also, I'm pretty damned sure there would have been a kill last night if Ari was ww.

The Wolf is flaked.
Yeah, I'd have made a kill for sure. That's all wine, but you're right.

Of course, then today would be full Lylo, not Mylo (which I just did the math to figure out).

Honestly, the WW needs to claim and we all need to promise not to lynch them so we have a confirmed non-Mafia member to rally around. It's the only way either of us can win this game.
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Post Post #1327 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:41 am

Post by -Grey- »

In post 1326, Aristophanes wrote:That's all wine, but you're right.
90% of Maia is figuring out which glass has the poison.
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Post Post #1328 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:42 am

Post by -Grey- »

In post 1327, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1326, Aristophanes wrote:That's all wine, but you're right.
90% of Mafia is figuring out which glass has the poison.
EBWOP
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Post Post #1329 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:45 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1327, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1326, Aristophanes wrote:That's all wine, but you're right.
90% of Mafia is figuring out which glass has the poison.
Absolutely!

What do you think of my number crunch? We're in a more dire situation than I had previously thought!
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Post Post #1330 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:53 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

VOTE: hiraki

Ari is town.

This is the safe scum, and there's always a chance he's ww.

@Ari: We still want to eliminate the ww more just so there's no option to kill, but you're right that the priority is eliminating scum in general.
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Post Post #1331 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:59 am

Post by Aristophanes »

So, living list people are: Ari (3), BTD (2), NM (1).
I doubt Mafia put themselves up more than once making BTD likely town. NM is possible Mafia but I don't think scum would want to risk a perfect win when N3 rolled around.

This leaves a lynch pool of {Grey, Umlaut, LUV, Infinity, Hiraki}.

At least 2, and likely 3, are Mafia. Let's figure out who!
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Post Post #1332 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:03 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Wow, that's a small pool.

Hiraki, plus LUV and grey since they really should've been on the kill list at least once. Umlaut is a pretty strong townread of mine.
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Post Post #1333 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:04 am

Post by -Grey- »

Out of the three players that have filled the NM slot, there has only been one post that looks anything CLOSE to scum hunting, and that was the last post by the original slot holder.

I'm not moving my vote.
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Post Post #1334 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:05 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

n_m is probably werewolf then. Hmm
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Post Post #1335 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:06 am

Post by -Grey- »

In post 1331, Aristophanes wrote:NM is possible Mafia but I don't think scum would want to risk a perfect win when N3 rolled around.
Use your head. What does Scum get out of listing an easy mislynch target if he's town? Nothing.

Why would the werewolf kill a player whose only posts have been quick-hammers on town? They wouldn't.
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Post Post #1336 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:11 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Okay, so we assume NM is Werewolf?
Still not our priority. We then go into tomorrow in full Lylo, just no NKs. So we would have to agree that BTD and I are conftown never to be lynched to even have a chance. I don't think many are ready to do that atm, so WW hunting NM isn't priority today. If we get the other 2 Mafia, NM should be considered for sure! But it is far more likely to hinder us at this point.
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Post Post #1337 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:15 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 846, lucca261 wrote:basically, FMPOV, it's either Matt or Tea.

it's tea, but, right.
Why does he gets listed if both of these guys aren't mafia...
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Post Post #1338 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:15 am

Post by Lil Uzi Vert »

Omega, Chilled Tea, N_M??
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Post Post #1339 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:16 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Actually ari you're right that we get an extra lynch before lylo if we don't kill ww yet. Cool.

Lynch hiraki?
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Post Post #1340 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:18 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1339, Infinity 324 wrote:Actually ari you're right that we get an extra lynch before lylo if we don't kill ww yet. Cool.

Lynch hiraki?
I do alright when I try, eh? :)

Let me read his ISO and see where I'm at after that!
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Post Post #1341 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:21 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Well probably mafia weren't predicting any of them lynched any time soon n1. So maybe the n1 kill list doesn't matter?
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Post Post #1342 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:25 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1341, Infinity 324 wrote:Well probably mafia weren't predicting any of them lynched any time soon n1. So maybe the n1 kill list doesn't matter?
I'm the only one still alive from the N1 kill list :P
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Post Post #1343 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:27 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

I'm decently comfortable calling ari, btd, and umlaut town and just lynching everyone else, but I do want to do some NKA first.

PEdit: yeah but I'm wondering if mafia listed the people scumreading them.
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Post Post #1344 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:32 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 1343, Infinity 324 wrote:I'm decently comfortable calling ari, btd, and umlaut town and just lynching everyone else, but I do want to do some NKA first.

PEdit: yeah but I'm wondering if mafia listed the people scumreading them.
Oooooh! Smart!

That'd def be something to look at (or not, if they were pretty confident as you say).
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Post Post #1345 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:34 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

QT scumread 2 flipped town and my slot. Ok....

They did mention a scumread on n_m slot, wasn't close to end of the day, but never went back on that. Though, fred's replacemenet immediately flaked I think so there's no chance they would catch that. May point to fred being mafia though?
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Post Post #1346 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:36 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Ari, you're so fun to play with when you try to gamesolve! You should try it more often :)
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Post Post #1347 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:36 am

Post by -Grey- »

NM is Mafia.

Idk what crack Infinity is smoking, but he's bending over backwards to protect scum.
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Post Post #1348 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:42 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Why is n_m mafia and not werewolf?

And why do you think you and LUV were not on the list for the past few days
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Post Post #1349 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:53 am

Post by -Grey- »

You have shown absolutely no rational foundation for believing NM is Werewolf over mafia and you look like you're protecting a teammate.

That's why he's mafia over werewolf.

There is no scenario where lynching NM is bad for town, but you're busting your ass to protect him and attempt to throw shade on me since I am demanding his head.

Why am I not listed? Really? What kind of fucking question is that? How can town possibly know the fucking answer to that?

You can both fucking swing, but NM first.
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