Mini 1499 - State Farm Mafia 2 - Game Over

[archaebob]

unvote

Let's get at least one full page of discussion.

[Maenara]

Alright. Well you can be sure that if I was partners with DGB there would be no way in

hell

she wouldn't have known that peace claimed vt. The same goes for Archaebob, so he's not scum either.

Walk me the through the logic here.

[Maenara]

No idea whence that 'the' cameth.

[Banksys Flareon]

DGB's claim was obviously a last ditch survival gambit. The previous vt claim is almost entirely irrelevant.

Vote: Dry-fit

Hammer when you will.

[Banksys Flareon]

@Dry-fit: I could use some walking too before we lynch you. So, Maenera was bussing PeaceBringer, that mean's she's cleared. And Brian was bussing DGB, so he's cleared, and that leaves me. The one bussing neither of those players.

[Dry-fit]

Alright. Well you can be sure that if I was partners with DGB there would be no way in

hell

she wouldn't have known that peace claimed vt. The same goes for Archaebob, so he's not scum either.

Walk me the through the logic here.

Peacebringer claimed vt day 1:

Perfectly fine with being daykilled though. Nothing to add as just town.

Bob and I both noticed this. If I was DGB's buddy I would have absolutely made her aware that Peace claimed vt during night. But the fact that DGB claimed doctor yesterday proves she wasn't aware of that claim. And when she claimed doc, it was still a point in the day when Banksys could have been the day's lynch, so it wasn't trolling.

DGB's claim was obviously a last ditch survival gambit. The previous vt claim is almost entirely irrelevant.

That's my whole point. DGB couldn't legitimately use that claim as a last ditch effort because Bob and I

had already pointed it out several time.

It was a scumslip. A slip that would never have happened if I was her partner.

Don't anyone dare hammer until Brian gets in here.

[RachMarie]

bah win it for me town

[Banksys Flareon]

Good job responding to what I said.

Last ditch gambits are last ditch gambits. Rach declared intent to hammer, so I think it was pretty clear what was about to go down.

[Dry-fit]

Good job responding to what I said.

Last ditch gambits are last ditch gambits. Rach declared intent to hammer, so I think it was pretty clear what was about to go down.

If you're going to do a last ditch gambit, you can do better than claiming scum. trying to talk Rach out of it was her best option.

But I just realized Banksys being DGB's partner actually doesn't make sense.

Unvote.

I'm really confused here.

[Maenara]

I've got half a mind to change my vote to Brian and call it a day, just because the interaction between him and DGB was just really... weird, in retrospect. And he's been twinging my scumdar since forever. But eh, fine, whatever, Let's Lynch Dry-Fit, he works too.

Now that I think about it, the problem may be that I only

have

half a mind, right now.

@Rach: Rules explicitly forbid BahPosts

[archaebob]

@ Maenara -

You aren't inspiring much confidence by being loudly ambivalent. Please refrain from posting when you only have half a mind, and find a window of time to focus on this game with all of you present. Nobody can claim at this point that the game is boring. Your last post sounds like scum.

[archaebob]

@ Banskys -

Reassure me that yesterday didn't involve a hard bus.

[archaebob]

@ DryFit -

You should claim.

[Banksys Flareon]

@archaebob: A hard bus would be me coming out of the gate after DGB. Reread me joining her wagon and decide if it was that. Now read the narrative that DGB struck me as a competent player, especially with ABR's vote of confidence, and then she seemed to just go off the deep end. I don't know what her plan was in retrospect, but joining her wagon did not involve any planning on my part.

[Brian Skies]

Sorry for not posting yet, but I had an exam yesterday evening so I wasn't exactly in a reading/thinking mood last night, especially for a game as difficult as this.

Anyhow, I'm currently in my re-read of this game (up to page 21 right now, I'll finish later and give you guys something to chew on).

My current preferred lynch order is:
Dry --> Maenara --> Bob --> Banksys

If you are suspecting Banksys, can you explain why? Is Banksys the type of player that hard busses her partner throughout the game (serious question because it could be the case)?

I can't see both Banksys and Bob being in a 4-man scum-team together. So I'm still interested in you two trying to read each other.

I'm still waffling on Maenara based on set-up and the way she's been playing. We've already flipped two mafia goons so I'm trying to see where their power is (or lack thereof if Maenara is indeed a miller). I'm trying to decide whether it is more likely for scum to have more team members or some power role that helps balance things out. I don't have any understanding of set-up speculation and it's bothering me.

If we only have 1 scum left to worry about, then don't mind me if you guys have figured it out. But we still have some time left this day and I don't mind using it to clear out some paranoia and not screw us over in potential lylo.

[Banksys Flareon]

I have done that in the past, but not with this account.

[archaebob]

@ Brian -

Banksys has no problem hard bussing. I don't know that it's what happened here, but it shouldn't be ruled out.

@ Banksys -

It's very easy for me to read yesterday as you and DGB putting on a show.

Also, how do you explain this post with DryFit as scum? What was she up to?

Also, this. Among others.

I'm trying to build a coherent narrative of her thought process in which DryFit is her partner the entire time. It's not clear to me what she was trying to do. But it's easy for me to imagine the two of you deciding ahead of time to attack each other, with the gradual escalation staged. I don't think a hard bus requires you to come in guns blazing. At all.

What are your thoughts on Maenara?

[archaebob]

@ DryFit -

Why doesn't DGB/Banksys make sense to you?

Please post a ranked list of suspicions.

[Brian Skies]

Soooo, I've finally caught up. There's a lot of WIFOM in this thread and the replacement thing taints a lot of my reads (I'm going to throw it out altogether, don't go there or I might park my vote on you).

I still need to re-read a couple of things, but I'll get back to you when it's more convenient for me. I just spent a whole day reading this thread and I'm in a bunch of games.

[Banksys Flareon]

@Archaebob: I'm confused as to how those posts make Dry-fit not her partner. Please explain. What are you asking me to explain about them?

I voted DGB for specific mistakes she made on that day. Even if you think it was bussing, it was certainly not bussing orchestrated by the two of us.

Secondly, I was after PeaceBringer until the replacement, then DGB seemed town. I had my opportunity to hard bus then.

Thirdly, I never went after Slaandar/Magua until it became a role issue, then I voted for Mastin. The time to bus was then.

RE: Maenera: Maenera is the only surviving player other than archaebob on D1's mislynch wagon. I have a strong town read on archaebob, so that makes Maenera scum. Zero scum on that wagon is not something I'm willing to buy. The only way that is not true is if Dry-fit is scum. I have a massive scum read on Dry-fit as well. I posted my case on him yesterday. My gut is a stronger voice than vote count analysis, and for good reason, so I'm voting Dry-fit.

[Brian Skies]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

• Aeronaut (7):

  mastin2 TCold

  Maenara

  DrippingGoofball

  1baldeagle1

  archaebob

  Garmr
  
  
• Garmr (2)
  :
  magua
  Banksys Flareon
  
• 1baldeagle1 (1)
  : Dry-fit
  
• Dry-fit (1)
  :
  Albert B. Rampage
  
  
• TCold (1)
  : Brian Skies
  
• Not voting
  :
  Aeronaut
  
  
  With 13 alive it is 7 to lynch.

Vote Count

Mastin2 (L-0) -

Magua

,

DrippingGoofball

, Banksys Flareon, Maenara,

Albert Rampage

,

RachMarie

Magua (L-3) -

Mastin2

, archaebob, Dry-fit

Not Voting - Brian Skies

A lynch has been reached

VOTE COUNT

DrippingGoofball - Brian Skies, Banksys Flareon, archaebob,

RachMarie

(L-0)

Banksys Flareon - DryFit, Maenara,

DrippingGoofball

(L-1)

I'm too tired to do a full wagon analysis, so these are just the vote counts at the end of each day. I'm more interested in why votes were placed anyways so wagon analysis isn't really my thing.

[Dry-fit]

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

@ DryFit -

Why doesn't DGB/Banksys make sense to you?

Well maybe it was premature to say it doesn't. But what I was thinking was that DGB was put up an awfully big fight to stay alive at the end of the day yesterday if Banksys was her partner. It's true she could have been hoping someone other than the two of them would end up getting lynched or that she wanted to keep Banksys alive because she's a pr, but it's causing me to have doubts.

As for suspicions, I can't see Brian as scum at this point.

I think it's Maenara or Banksys right now. I need to sort out which. Maenara's interactions with Peace D1 don't seem to make sense from a buddy, but the rest of her play makes sense for scum.

[archaebob]

Alright, so I'm as satisfied as I'm going to be that Banksys is town. I don't want to think about it anymore...I'm just spinning my wheels at this point as opposed to noticing new things. Objectively, there's not much of an argument that Banksys is a good lynch today. Or tomorrow. Also, I can't help but notice how quickly DryFit began changing his tune about her as soon as I directed suspicion her way.

Brian is town.

So it looks like the last scum is between DryFit and Maenara. Still wouldn't surprise me if it's both: four goons makes sense, and would explain why we have two super scummy people left.

@ everyone -

We should mass claim, and then I'll hammer.

Vanilla Town.

[Banksys Flareon]

Vanilla town.

[Maenara]

Still miller.