Open 556: Fire and Ice (Over)

[Mr Glidder]

Do you think we should be lynching at all?

I really don't know. I feel that regardless of what we do, we need a crosskill to have a chance.

Hm. The odds of at least one crosskill by no-lynching are 17/25 (68%), but dilemma is almost guaranteed. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching town are 19/24 (79%), but we insta-lose unless there are two crosskills. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching scum are 7/12 (58%), but if the remaining scum of the lynched team kills town, we also insta-lose.

If we lynch, we avoid dilemma and insta-loss with probability 8.57%. If we no-lynch, we do so with probability 20%.

Given this game's track record, I think we should defer to the numbers.

Vote: No lynch

[reinoe]

.

You're putting a label like "buddying" on what could be two Townies working together. That's what was going on with Tricks, and apparently no one has learned a lesson from that.

Two townies working together? As soon as someone agrees with you you don't question why, you don't ask for proof, they just sheep your reasons, and you just sheep their reasons. You don't think it's at all suspicious when a person sheeps you and doesn't explain their reasoning? You don't think it's at all strange when someone gets challenged on their reasoning and they just brush it off? Theirs working together and then there's being a goddamn sheep. Where has sheeping gotten us? How many scum got lynched?

Here's the $64 Question: why is your play getting worse with experience? Why did you play better in a newbie game than this game?

Why did you have so many concerns about buddying in Newbie 1494 and now all of a sudden it's "town working together"? "Town working together" has lead to four mislynches. The "working together" that you're talking about is just a bunch of players not putting in any effort into the game and not questioning each other.

"No Lynch" is such a cowardly copout. I'm town and I'm in the business of lynching scum.

[reinoe]

Everyone should re-read moonlight's posting at the end of day two. That is not town behavior. Read moonlight's posts today. That is not town behavior. Read day one. Look at all the obstructionism and distraction that moonlight was causing.


Someone explain to me why moonlight is town? Than think about why moonlight is scum. Town moonlight does not make any fucking sense.

[Randomnamechange]

Reino douche level: 30000
Finglove and Mr glidder I am willing to work with you on strategy. I know one of you at least is scum but maths doesnt lie. My point is that scum must crosskill to have a chance of winning, assuming one team at least tries to crosskill. Here are the possibilities if we lynch town today and asuming both teams send an action in.
Scum shoot different townies = 2 scum vs 2 scum = draw.
Scum shoot same townie = 2vs2vs2 but both scum teams have that player as conf town.
Onw scum crosskills other hits townie = 2 scum vs 1 scum vs 1 town = no lynch, last scum from second team dies + one other scum = 1 scum vs 1 town scum win OR two scum team misjudge and shoot the townie and other scum shoot scum team leading to 1vs1vs1 which has been explained OR both shoot the townie scum learn who is town qnd two scum team win the game OR 1 scum shoots town and 2 scum shoots two scum leading to perfect scum win.
Scum both crosskill, work out who is other scum, convince town to vote them and win.
Crosskilling comes up favourably for scum in this situation. Too tired right now to explain what town should do in last scenario, will do later.

[idk]

I'm here, reading up real quick

[idk]

So at first I was gonna vote reinoe. Zeph was hella scummy, and reinoe's play hasn't been the greatest, either. Not to mention, Moonlight was a huge townread of mine.

The reason that that has changed, however, is Moon's reactions.

Look at Moon's play today. Look at Moon's previous play. Extremely different. You don't go off changing your playstyle completely around unless you're nervous. Moonlight earlier in the game -- aka Town-Moonlight -- would laugh at a vote on him and would go after someone else. Today's play -- aka Scum-Moonlight -- he's been flipping out, even self-voting (which, if you actually are town, is most definitely against your win condition).

Randomidget's blatant buddying, defense, and attempt to shift the focus off of Moonlight just puts it over the top for me.

VOTE: MOONLIGHT

For those not keeping track, please note that this puts Moonlight at L-1.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Moonlight (3) - reione, Moonlight, idk
No Lynch (2) - Finglove, Mr Glidder
reione (1) - randomidget

Not voting (1) - RachMarie

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is June 24th, 6PM PST

Please remember Rule 17. I have a VERY low tolerance for abusive posting and will not hesitate to force replace or modkill if I see it as necessary

[RachMarie]

Well I have no clue on my preds, but only time I do not have a vote on someone as town is if for some reason the day ends before I can vote.

[RachMarie]

VOTE: No Lynch


I do not understand the math but I can see how it could be an issue and I definitely am not seeing moon as scum

I think it more likely to be reinoe but I admit I am way behind on this game.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: No lynch
Just realized that my maths fails to take one thing into account - who the scum teams targeted.
I am not buddying Moon. We both trust each other and are trying to work together to get town out of this fucking mess.
I can defend moonlight from the things idk said, but that WOULD be buddying, and I don't know if he is coming back.
After tonight we can see if town can win.

[reinoe]

Hey there's three town and Four scum!!! Yep, no lynch is totally town driven. Hahahahahahaha.

[reinoe]

Reino douche level: 30000

Somehow I have a feeling that if I used the same ad-hominen attack the mod wouldn't allow a town player to get away with it.

It's a good thing for scum that I substituted so late that I couldn't turn it around.

[Randomnamechange]

Reino, you were swearing at Moonlight. We did the maths, it works out. So moon is town then? Lol

[Finglove]

Hey there's three town and Four scum!!! Yep, no lynch is totally town driven. Hahahahahahaha.

Given how good a lynch would be for scum, I find it unlikely. Pretty sure some scum crept in behind my initial post. Speaking of which

Do you think we should be lynching at all?

I really don't know. I feel that regardless of what we do, we need a crosskill to have a chance.

Hm. The odds of at least one crosskill by no-lynching are 17/25 (68%), but dilemma is almost guaranteed. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching town are 19/24 (79%), but we insta-lose unless there are two crosskills. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching scum are 7/12 (58%), but if the remaining scum of the lynched team kills town, we also insta-lose.

If we lynch, we avoid dilemma and insta-loss with probability 8.57%. If we no-lynch, we do so with probability 20%.

Given this game's track record, I think we should defer to the numbers.

Vote: No lynch

What I fail to understand is why Glidder didn't reach this conclusion immediately. I think he is scum, but knows that this is the correct town play. Therefore, he wanted to keep a lynch on the table as long as possible, which he wasn't able to do after I pressed him.

[Randomnamechange]

Hey there's three town and Four scum!!! Yep, no lynch is totally town driven. Hahahahahahaha.

Given how good a lynch would be for scum, I find it unlikely. Pretty sure some scum crept in behind my initial post. Speaking of which

Do you think we should be lynching at all?

I really don't know. I feel that regardless of what we do, we need a crosskill to have a chance.

Hm. The odds of at least one crosskill by no-lynching are 17/25 (68%), but dilemma is almost guaranteed. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching town are 19/24 (79%), but we insta-lose unless there are two crosskills. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching scum are 7/12 (58%), but if the remaining scum of the lynched team kills town, we also insta-lose.

If we lynch, we avoid dilemma and insta-loss with probability 8.57%. If we no-lynch, we do so with probability 20%.

Given this game's track record, I think we should defer to the numbers.

Vote: No lynch

What I fail to understand is why Glidder didn't reach this conclusion immediately. I think he is scum, but knows that this is the correct town play. Therefore, he wanted to keep a lynch on the table as long as possible, which he wasn't able to do after I pressed him.

I cant believe no one called me out for suggesting we lynch town...

[Moonlight]

After more than a day, I've managed to compose myself enough to actually check the thread and post.

I thought about replacing out, but no, that's a cheap cop out and it's not fair to whoever would be stepping into my pools. This is a game and it's supposed to be fun, I'll deal with reinoe's bullying (because that's what it is) like a man.

@reinoe:

Please share with the classroom why you're comparing my play in this game with that game instead of comparing it with the one completed game where I've been scum.

I'll tell you why: because anyone with half a brain will realize through that comparison that town-me and scum-me are two completely different animals. It's not even funny, it's shameful to admit, but it's true. It's why I've been flipping out about being scumread in this game. This is the towniest I get, because it's the way I unfortunately am. -_-

Anyway, looks like we've got a majority on No Lynch and I partly hope I get shot tonight just so this pathetic excuse of a game can stop on my end. I also hope that reinoe gets shot, he is probably only playing dumb by making that ludicrous comparison.

[Moonlight]

EBWOP: stepping into my shoes.

(How did I even make that typo?)

[Moonlight]

By the way, reinoe, make sure to mention next time how me checking in after a No Lynch has been achieved was not a coincidence and I was instead waiting for it to happen. I am so good that I somehow knew how everyone else would act in my absense, totes.

[reinoe]

How is it dumb to compare your most recent completed game to this game? And why are you so upset about it? This town lost it's shot when The_Ascended, Not_Mafia, and Borophil got shot. They were all starting to see through your crap just like I did. They were shot for being good at this game and you were spared because you're not as town as you've been trying to make yourself out to be. What kind of town player brags and points out how "obv townie" they are. It's such a scum claim. You'd have been lynched if they were alive today. Good work on both scum teams for recognizing the players who wouldn't stand bullshit and eliminating those players.

bOOO---URNS to the town players who let moonlight's obvious scummy shit slide until it got to this point of no return.

[Moonlight]

You want to really get into "look at me, I'm so Town' arguments? Sure, let's look at 1036 where you push the idea that you are Town because... different mod rules apply to different alignments? WHAT? xD

I am not going to even say anything more. You should be scumreading yourself if you believe what you say.

[Moonlight]

Oh it's also worth noting that I exhibited that very same "obv townie" bragging in the game you're comparing my play to. But suuuure, feel free to leave that out of the comparison too!

[Moonlight]

And of course, you have completely dodged the important question: why did you compare this game of mine to one of my Town games instead of my scum game?

Don't answer, you have nothing useful to say anyway. I was right about your slot, and other Townies unfortunately jumped into my way and we suffered collateral damage. I'm sorry about it, I only did what I thought was right.

[reinoe]

You want to really get into "look at me, I'm so Town' arguments? Sure, let's look at 1036 where you push the idea that you are Town because... different mod rules apply to different alignments? WHAT? xD

Let's test that theory then...

@randomidget

He's a total retard and is the result of a failed abortion.

[Moonlight]

I guess I lied about saying anything more, but only one thing bothers me:

If I was right about Rach being your buddy, why on earth did she go after No Lynch? Did she fear that my flip would make you two even more glaringly obvious, or am I totally off the mark again?

PEdit: My mom's dead, so try fitting that into the mix for better results if you're really after a modkill? You're creative, you'll find something inappropriate.

[reinoe]

I guess I lied about saying anything more, but only one thing bothers me:

If I was right about Rach being your buddy, why on earth did she go after No Lynch? Did she fear that my flip would make you two even more glaringly obvious, or am I totally off the mark again?

PEdit: My mom's dead, so try fitting that into the mix for better results if you're really after a modkill? You're creative, you'll find something inappropriate.

You didn't get away with an ad-hominen attack. Even to the very end you're being overly defensive. I'm not trying for anything.