Mafia 113: Mafia in Mendo ~ Game Over

[dramonic]

Because he could also be scum in which case we WILL lose.

[Chronopie]

Vote: Chnorek

If he flips town, I'm looking back at dram's iso for scumminess.

[MehPlusRawr]

And what about the idea that we're at LYLO? Bah. Okay, I don't know. Chances are that it's a Chrono-Dram-Nico scumteam, but on the other hand, Chno could be scum. 2 docs in one game isn't incredibly likely.


Actually...
Assuming 4 town 3 scum
3 town 3 scum will happen after lynch
2 town 3 scum will happen after poison
1 town 2 scum will happen after I shoot Nico and mafia is dead.

If it's 4 town 2 scum, then...

4 town 2 scum
3 town 2 scum after lynch
2 town 2 scum after poison
1 town 1 scum after mafia kill, vig scumkill.


We cannot afford to lynch town today regardless. There's probably not an SK. Dram is scum. Chrono also possibly scum. Nico definite scum.

Vote: Dramonic

[MehPlusRawr]

EBWOP: The first "1 town 2 scum" description is messed up, I meant to say after I shoot Nico and mafia kills.

[MehPlusRawr]

Okay. In a game offsite (I linked to it on the CCA case.), at the end, it was an equal number of town and mafia. Mafia win condition was majority or nothing able to prevent it. There was a 1-shot dayvig on the town side, the only way for town to win was to shoot mafia then lynch mafia, and the shooting had to happen before the mafia no lynched. The town assumed that there was 1 less scum than town, and it was MYLO, because they didn't know about the vig and thought that equal scum to town would be a loss. The dayvig didn't shoot, and town lost, but I learned something. The mafia members were pressing to nolynch, saying that there was a better chance of lynching scum the next day than today, because there would be one less townie to pick out from the mass of people to find mafia. The mafia members looked very much like they expected there to be another day. They said stuff like they'd lynch a certain scummy player (who was actually mafia) the next day, assuming he didn't die or whatever.

Chrono's post is scummy. He's implying that the day will continue, and it'll work, and we'll lynch scum tomorrow. We won't.

Guys, thoughts on this post? DO NOT IGNORE IT.

[Chronopie]

Been running the numbers.

If we mislynch based on the first of the above, and if the poisoner is Mafia and hits town, we Endgame ftl.

Assuming no SK:

4:3
Lynch 3:3

ENDGAME

or we could have some luck and have a 3:2 night.

Vig + NK 2:1

lylo

If its a 5:2 split, no SK, poisoner is Mafia:

5:2
Lynch 4:2
Poison 3:2

NK 2:2
Vig Kill 2:1

Lylo

Best case scenario, 5:2 split: M.Doc + Poisoner (Fake Vig) 4:0

win

[dramonic]

4 town 3 scum is ridiculous with the scum having double kills.

the other option is 5 town 2 scum. We end with 2 townies 1 scum.

[Chronopie]

Huh, should really use Preview once in a while. all I have to say is [wifom] I'm not a Mafioso of any description [/wifom]

[dramonic]

once again, assuming the poisoner is mafia and the scumteam is 4 is preposterous.

[Chronopie]

The possibility exists that there is no poisoner, but rather it's an action of the Scum group as a whole.

[dramonic]

which result in the scumgroup possessing 2 kills.
Which cannot be associated with 4 scums, for balance issues, even with a tracker and doc and whatever other BS you wanna add in.

The doc must die. Period.

[MehPlusRawr]

Ohh I messed up the last one, I said 4 town 2 scum instead of 5 town 2 scum. Okay. I guess this makes more sense now.

[dramonic]

So now can you unvote me and vote the doc?
It's the bright thing to do.

[MehPlusRawr]

Okay. In a game offsite (I linked to it on the CCA case.), at the end, it was an equal number of town and mafia. Mafia win condition was majority or nothing able to prevent it. There was a 1-shot dayvig on the town side, the only way for town to win was to shoot mafia then lynch mafia, and the shooting had to happen before the mafia no lynched. The town assumed that there was 1 less scum than town, and it was MYLO, because they didn't know about the vig and thought that equal scum to town would be a loss. The dayvig didn't shoot, and town lost, but I learned something. The mafia members were pressing to nolynch, saying that there was a better chance of lynching scum the next day than today, because there would be one less townie to pick out from the mass of people to find mafia. The mafia members looked very much like they expected there to be another day. They said stuff like they'd lynch a certain scummy player (who was actually mafia) the next day, assuming he didn't die or whatever.

Chrono's post is scummy. He's implying that the day will continue, and it'll work, and we'll lynch scum tomorrow. We won't.

Guys, thoughts on this post? DO NOT IGNORE IT.

This still stands. You're assuring the town that we're not in LYLO. Chrono is agreeing.

[boberz]

All this setup rubbish has confused me slightly, largely because I am trying to ignore it somewhat. MPR why did you want me to comment on your very strange post?

I think we should lynch th eplayer most likely to be scum.

Then we should hope to wake up in the morning with another situation to talk about.

[chnorek]

i hate doing it but dram just loves wifom so here we go:
bv was shot. if i was mafia doc who else would i protect?

i dont think we can go anywhere this way...

Dramonic is still alive with 2 votes, it makes me even more comfortable with him being lynched.

[dramonic]

i hate doing it but dram just loves wifom so here we go:
bv was shot. if i was mafia doc who else would i protect?

i dont think we can go anywhere this way...

Dramonic is still alive with 2 votes, it makes me even more comfortable with him being lynched.

bv would've been lynched during the day, better keep your protects where they are useful.
Also I'm not dead because there's prolly scum on my wagon, duh.
Or because they didn'T have time to synch, but I doubt that.

[Ythill]

• The Consensus
  
  
• 2 ~ chnorek (dramonic, Chronopie)
  
• 2 ~ dramonic (chnorek, MehPlusRawr)
  
• 1 ~ MehPlusRawr (Nicodemus)
  
• Not Voting: boberz, CryMeARiver

• Gardening Tips
  
  
• If I get too stoned to post (or whatever) PM ani for assistance.
  
• Overall Prod Count: dramonic (1), Nicodemus (1).
  
• CryMeARiver will be V/LA until May 16.
  
• With seven alive it takes four to lynch. The deadline is May 23, 22:30 PDT (GMT-7).

[chnorek]

bv would've been lynched during the day, better keep your protects where they are useful.

better to protect someone who is not going to be shot? sure.

Also I'm not dead because there's prolly scum on my wagon, duh.
Or because they didn'T have time to synch, but I doubt that.

what is your current assumption for the setup? 2 or 3 scum left alive?

[Chronopie]

Dram thinks it was a 3 man team, so 2 alive. Judging by the above statements.

Protecting Bv would have made the doc look xxl scummy. No matter which alignment the doc is, it would have been a bad choice.

[MehPlusRawr]

If I've been poisoned, then town loses if we lynch the doc. As someone said earlier, I don't think the scum would have a watcher, doc, and poisoner...

We need to lynch Chrono or Dram.

[dramonic]

that supposes you are town...
If you`ve been poisoned, are town and the doc is town itll be my mea culpa.

[Chronopie]

and I'll know not to trust Dram for late-game setup analysis again.

[chnorek]

boberz who do you think is most likely scum?

[CryMeARiver]

@CMAR: How bout you answer the question instead of just whitenoising?

Dram is scum.
His reasoning is pure wifom.
[...]
That leaves 3 mafia with 2 kills each night and 1 vig. there is no SK in my opinion.
either Nico or mpr is scum. Other one is vig.

vote: dramonic

And... how is that supposed to help the town in any way? Since you believe that there are 3 scum tot, lynching you is still the optimal play. We have 0 proof you are town and on the off-chance you are we'll be in lylo again tomorrow because one scum among Nico and MPR will die.

Whitenoising? Are you a moron? If there are 3 scum and 4 town right now, and we lynch a town doctor, that leaves 3 town and 3 scum. We lose. Especially with the poison. All you have done today is try to confuse people with the setup, and now you are trying to force a lynch on someone just because they claimed doc without actually scumhunting. Pretty sure we found our scum here.

Vote: Dramonic

Nico, feel free to hammer since you have him as scum. And if you are really the vig, shoot Meh tonight. Then we have either won or there is one scum left.