Mini 1532: Mac's Mini Normal - GAME OVER~

[ChannelDelibird]

If there's a third party, it's TV, but the fact that nobody has come forward as 'hey, I'm the third town power role!' yet makes it very unlikely that TV is an SK because, given we've seen two Goons flip rather than any other mafia role, the idea of town having Cop+Doc+Vig+Other Role X as compensation is extremely far-fetched.

I'm therefore pretty sure we've already massclaimed by omission but, even if someone has something 'not vanilla' to claim, unless they're about to get lynched it's not that important because such a claim is at best going to make TV look like an SK when in fact we want to kill the mafia today.

[ChannelDelibird]

So let's lynch Hayato, and if that's no good, tonight I'll shoot frog.

I think it's very likely that this would win us the game.

[hayatoBL]

Spoiler:

Going through Aegor & SOS in iso together to see if I can pick up indicative comments.

I usually put a lot of stock in analysing flipped scum's readslists because they force stances and Aegor's one here seems like an interesting case. It shows him calling out his buddy, SOS, for lurking, in fairly standard fare - just for context there of how he's approaching this.

Of the non-Tunnel players alive (we're not lynching Tunnel), he says the following: Flameaxe is a brief "annoying but town" which in my experience is more likely to not be a buddy interaction so much as trying to get a grouchy town player onside. He asks a specific question to don about a particular read, which I think is more likely to be Aegor attempting to gain towncred from don by asking him stuff to look busy than it would be scum putting his partner on the spot to explain something. With an awareness of SOS lurking that would feel like an unsafe play for Aegor.

He is wishy-washy in the extreme on Hayato, sitting firmly on the fence and giving him an opportunity to explain himself better. This feels more like a scum interaction. He then doesn't mention frog at all, despite having had arguments with him earlier in the thread - if frog is his scumbuddy, I find it really hard to believe that Aegor would forget to mention him in some way here. As scum writing this post, you have to be thinking so much about how you address your buddy.

I will keep reading but this post points a lot towards Hayato as the third mafia, I think.

Looking at your post while putting myself in other town’s shoes, I find that your case is not bad. I’m the only player on that list, to whom Aegor’s opinion was wishy-washy. I see that.

I refuse to believe that Aegor planned this to happen. That would take much preparation and I assume Aegor is not super-good.

My only defence on your case is that Aegor’s true scum partner might already have a common-tell among the other players.

In other words, it would be dumb for Aegor to have a wishy-washy stance towards his partner, who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

My post suggests that your post does not

strongly

suggest that I’m 3rd mafia.

[ChannelDelibird]

who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

Admittedly I wasn't in the game by that point but I don't recall you being a universal townread.

[hayatoBL]

who is at that time already being town-read by the rest of the players.

Admittedly I wasn't in the game by that point but I don't recall you being a universal townread.[/quote]

You've misunderstood me. I'm saying, Aegor's true scum partner might have already have a universal townread at that time. Thus, Aegor made no wishy-washy stance towards this partner.

How sure of you about me being scum based on this case alone?

[ChannelDelibird]

You've misunderstood me. I'm saying, Aegor's true scum partner might have already have a universal townread at that time. Thus, Aegor made no wishy-washy stance towards this partner.

Possible, of course, but I noted the fence-sitting because it reminds me of buddy interactions I've seen in the past. Anecdotally, that's more common in my experience (usually because it's extremely difficult for scum to obtain a universal townread).

How sure of you about me being scum based on this case alone?

On that post alone? Not certain. I definitely think that the post implies you being scum much more strongly than it does anyone else, though. As has been mentioned before, as well, I have had reservations with you in the past, and Aegor's post plays into those.

If I had made up my mind, though, I would be voting. I have more reading that I want to do.

[hayatoBL]

Well, just don't let confirmation bias cloud your judgement.

I have ISOed you just now and I’m starting to feel bad about you being aligned with SoS and Aegor.

I think, I’ll look for scum elsewhere. Will be ISOing the others.

[Flameaxe]

Too many people are too worried about people claiming at this point. The ship has sailed, people.

My lynch pool is probably heyato/frog for today.

[TunnelVision]

VOTE: Hayato

Might as well get the show on the road.

- Bauss -

[don_johnson]

no.

frog.

you shoot hayato.

[ChannelDelibird]

Do you think there's likely to be any difference if we do it in a different order, don? Do you agree with me about Aegor's readslist?

[hayatoBL]

Well, finished reading.

Reading don the second time doesn't change my opinion on him. I don't like his promise to continue reading, but not doing it. Or you still at it?

frog *might* be last scum, but I put my money on don being scum.

Eliminating TV, Flameaxe and CDB, there's don and frog left.

The way I see it, we can afford to lynch twice and vig-kill once. Three. Me, don and frog. Three. We have enough to satisfy everyone.

The order doesn't matter. Don first, frog first, whatever. Let's end this game.

VOTE: frog

And TV, please confirm who you're going to shoot before the day ends. That way if your target didn't die, we can confirm he has BP, thus scum.

[frog]

I maintain my townread of Hayato and my scumread of don. @CDB's 1175: don has implied he is a power role, which is why I have proposed the massclaim: a lot of setup spec regarding SKs and possible scum PRs would be solved if we massclaimed, and speculation is only going to confuse us further. Scum enjoy this kind of confusion and, frankly, we're not at a stage where keeping the PRs under wraps actually matters. Don's claim has huge implications for solving this game and I'm amazed nobody else is encouraging this.

Anyhow, little has changed since yesterday and I can't see why people have me down as scum (apart from my read of WBO which I have dealt with and nobody seems to have pushed). But, hey, I'll start the 'massclaim' that might not even happen: I'm a VT,

[ChannelDelibird]

I thought don was softclaiming VT but, if there is confusion, he should end it by claiming.

[Flameaxe]

Well, finished reading.

Reading don the second time doesn't change my opinion on him. I don't like his promise to continue reading, but not doing it. Or you still at it?

frog *might* be last scum, but I put my money on don being scum.

Eliminating TV, Flameaxe and CDB, there's don and frog left.

The way I see it, we can afford to lynch twice and vig-kill once. Three. Me, don and frog. Three. We have enough to satisfy everyone.

The order doesn't matter. Don first, frog first, whatever. Let's end this game.

VOTE: frog

And TV, please confirm who you're going to shoot before the day ends. That way if your target didn't die, we can confirm he has BP, thus scum

.

I can't be the only one with an odd feeling about the bolded part, right?

[don_johnson]

cdb: we have no guarantee TV will shoot who he says he is going to shoot. therefore I'd like to see my top suspect go first. if TV is sk he has every reason to keep the last scum in play. so unless he brings a case that blows everything else out of the water, I'd rather go with frog.

frog: nowhere did I imply I had a power role. frog I have you as scum for two reasons: 1) your opening post listing WBO as "cool". yes you seem to have answered this, but the answer carries no weight with me because you should have and could have answered to that point yesterday. 2) you seem still concerned with TV. TV can only be sk or vig. either way, he is outed as a nightkiller. only scum benefit from working to get him lynched ahead of actual mafia. we can talk about this more post game, but townies should not be concerned with lynching an sk when the sk's identity is already known.

hayato: I have not had time to begin reading again. currently I think frog's preoccupation with TV is a benchmark scumtell and that frog should be lynched for it. TV does not need to call his shot, and with the possibility of him being an sk, his word can't be trusted 100% anyway. we lynch frog, TV shoots who he shoots. there stands a good possibility that a frog lynch actually ends the game.

TV: no offense. I am happy to have you participating, but you should be aware of the predicament you place town in regarding your true identity. I would like you to cooperate on the kill, but we have to play with the possibility that you are an sk. in that regard, I would like frog lynched first. if the game continues and you want to shoot hayato, then so be it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Don, TV is more or less completely obvtown by this point.

Given that there is no sign of any other power role claims

*

, it is

extremely

unlikely that TV is an SK from a balance point of view.

We know that there is a third mafia left, regardless of TV's alignment. If TV were an SK, this would be the setup: 2 Mafia Goons + 1 Mafia Unknown Role vs 1 Serial Killer vs Town Two-shot Cop + Town Doctor. If you took the SK out of that setup, it would be arguably scumsided even if the third mafia role is a good.

Including

an SK, the town is really underpowered, with their only investigative role fairly limited and its only protection twice as likely to get killed by someone who has good reason to want it dead. For TV to be an SK, we have to be in that situation, and I have a hard time seeing the setup being approved for balance.

On the other hand, if TV is town, then the setup is: 2 Mafia Goons + 1 Unknown Role (probably bulletproof but possibly investigation-immune) vs Town Two-shot Cop + Town Doctor + Town X-Shot Vig. That's a much more reasonable setup, and so many degrees more likely than the SK variation that I would be

astonished

if TV were an SK.

Caution is understandable and, to be honest, I'm now at the point where I think the last scum must be between Hayato and Frog so I don't even mind doing it in your order if TV shoots whichever of the two we don't lynch. In fact, we almost certainly get another Day tomorrow on the off-chance that they're both town. But I think we should treat TV as

way

town.

*If anyone is an unclaimed town power role, this is your last chance to put TV-is-an-SK back on the table

[ChannelDelibird]

So there I am. My mind's made up; Hayato and Frog die in either order. Of the two, I think Hayato is slightly more likely to flip scum so that's nominally my preference to lynch first but I honestly don't think it matters much who goes first.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Hayato

[don_johnson]

I can dig it.

[Mac]

HayatoBL

[L-2]

- TunnelVision, ChannelDeliBird,
TunnelVision -
don_johnson -
Flameaxe -
frog

[L-2]

- don_johnson, HayatoBL,
ChannelDeliBird -

Not Voting: Flameaxe, frog,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-02-13 20:13:42) from now.

[hayatoBL]

Flameaxe: I thought that was a good plan. If TV told us who he targeted before he shoots and that player did not died, we would know his target was scum. How is it odd?

Of course, all of that was under the assumption, that TV really is town-vig. I’m already convinced that he is, since no one is claiming PR.

[frog]

frog: nowhere did I imply I had a power role. frog I have you as scum for two reasons: 1) your opening post listing WBO as "cool". yes you seem to have answered this,

but the answer carries no weight with me because you should have and could have answered to that point yesterday

. 2) you seem still concerned with TV. TV can only be sk or vig. either way, he is outed as a nightkiller. only scum benefit from working to get him lynched ahead of actual mafia. we can talk about this more post game, but townies should not be concerned with lynching an sk when the sk's identity is already known.

1) There's so much wrong with this. I did not answer yesterday as there were more pressing issues at hand (see: deadline which we missed) and I wasn't on a lot before the day ended either, so I couldn't have answered the question. Furthermore, just because I answered today and not yesterday does not make this any less valid. If you don't care about my answer just because it comes today, why did you, TODAY, ask me the question again, if my answer didn't matter? Additonally, as I have answered it satisfactorily, surely all 1) boils down to is 'you didn't answer when I asked you to', which I have shown was not appropriate.

2) Ironically, you're going on about TV far more than me. I'm asking for caution, and given that I thought you were a PR the existence of an SK was, to me, probable. Put simply: I wouldn't be talking about TV so much if YOU weren't asking me about him. Self-fulfilling prophecy here.

You should probably get yourself checked out, as you might test positive for bad logic.

[ChannelDelibird]

The non-voters should vote so that we can get this show on the road.

[frog]

Vote: HayatoBL