Mini 630: Council of Eville: Game Ovah!

[sthar8]

I can grudgingly see the point to BaB's self-vote, but I think that the risk to such a gambit should be unacceptable to any town player. The gain, of course, is a reasonable assumption that BaB or SC is scum, but that's not particularly new or shocking information. The vote on SC proves that at least one of SC, BaB, Electra is scum, but we already knew that based on pure numbers.

BaB seems to be more and more erratic as this day progresses, but I don't really understand why. It looks a little like panicked scum, but goat's point about the three-man push on BaB makes me hesitate.

I'd like some more content from Rage.

[Electra]

I really don't see a point to BaB's self vote, mainly because if he's mafia, and even if he had three votes instead of two (i.e. in the case where there are three mafia, and two available to vote), then mafia aren't going to jump on and kill him, and if he's town and strangercoug is not mafia, because he selfvoted, he can just as easily take off his own vote if people try to rush lynch him. Also, if he's town, then strangercoug must me mafia (by the numbers), so there's no option of a rush lynch anyway.

[Goatrevolt]

I think that SC and skillit are two scum

What do you think about the interaction between Skillit and SC very early day 1?

who the hell self-votes as town in LYLO?

Self-voting period has always boggled my mind. It's almost never a good play, yet it so frequently happens. Here, I can at least see the mindset behind why BaB did it, although it's pretty much a null tell to me. Scum ploy vs. legitimate gambit? Hard to tell.

BaB seems to be more and more erratic as this day progresses, but I don't really understand why. It looks a little like panicked scum

To some extent it does, definitely, but it doesn't seem to fit. Why would scum be panicked in this scenario? Why would BaB be panicked with 1 vote on him? Even if he is scum and goes down, there are still 2 remaining. Why would he panic today and not yesterday when there was actually a wagon on him?

[Dean Harper]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

StrangerCoug - (2) BridgesAndBaloons, Electra

BridgesAndBaloons - (1) StrangerCoug

With 8 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch a player.

[veerus]

The self-vote is a misdirection play at best as the mod indicated earlier in the game that he does not count self-votes (ref: FL voting herself closer to deadline). As pointed above, the gambit doesn't make much sense whatever way you look at it however a misdirection attempt is scummy in all scenarios.

Goat's point about the three-man push on BaB is the only thing giving me pause on the whole thing. However his recent erratic posting does not help with clearing him. We need to consider the possibility that one of the three is a townie while the other two scum have decided to throw away the most obvious scum to make our next day decision harder. To take this further (and I'm thinking/speculating out loud here), since everyone has claimed, a non-RB scum is an acceptable casualty at this point because the scum-RB needs to survive today to cancel out the town's power roles. If this line of thinking is correct and BAB is indeed scum, he's almost definitely not the scum-RB.

[Rage]

If this line of thinking is correct and BAB is indeed scum, he's almost definitely not the scum-RB.

Or he's using a gambit as a scum to take suspicion off. I'm comfortable with a BAB lynch at this point.

Regarding StrangerCoug, though, why does it seem like his posts today revolve around defending himself and pushing it back at who he's defending from? Ie. His defense against BAB is that his vote was without justification (this part I agree with, no vote should be made in LYLO without justification) and that BAB hasn't been answering SC's questions. But he hasn't really commented on the claimed power-roles, and in the time where they were first revealed he speculated mafia roles of "Goon/Goon/Roleblocker" (post #1154) after Sthra8 claimed (post #1153).

Simply put, they're short posts containing not much more than an offensive defense against BAB. Thus, I'd support either a BAB or SC lynch.

[StrangerCoug]

Regarding StrangerCoug, though, why does it seem like his posts today revolve around defending himself and pushing it back at who he's defending from? Ie. His defense against BAB is that his vote was without justification (this part I agree with, no vote should be made in LYLO without justification) and that BAB hasn't been answering SC's questions. But he hasn't really commented on the claimed power-roles, and in the time where they were first revealed he speculated mafia roles of "Goon/Goon/Roleblocker" (post #1154) after Sthra8 claimed (post #1153).

The fact that we have a roleblocker lends me credibility to their claims, which is why I haven't discussed them in detail. That's also why I've dropped GoatRevolt.

[Goatrevolt]

I think Coug/Electra are a scum pair. Does BaB fit as scum with them? That I do not know.

@Electra: Why did you vote Coug over BaB?

I simply don't feel that BaB is our best lynch today. He doesn't work as the roleblocker, and I think there are signs of him being pro-town beyond even the one I pointed out earlier. I'm not fully sold on this read, by any stretch, but I'm wary about lynching him today.

Anyway, I feel comfortable voting Coug. Anyone have any reasons why I should not do so?

[veerus]

Cerebus threw a few short, but relevant questions at SC early in the game that even now don't really raise many alarm bells. There's been even less interaction with Electra.. and almost none the other way. Which I guess is the point if you're trying to stay out of each other's way. On the other hand, cerebus seemed town to me so I can't really blame SC for that.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I'm not entirely sold on the Electra/SC scumpair. However, since my top suspects are BAB/SC, I have no problems lynching SC... he seems to be the common denominator in almost all scenarios.

[veerus]

EBWOP: Goat, where does Electra's latest vote on SC fit in your scumpair theory?

[Goatrevolt]

EBWOP: Goat, where does Electra's latest vote on SC fit in your scumpair theory?

I call people out for ganging up on BaB, and Electra votes Coug without any reasoning of why she chose Coug over BaB. Distance, Distance, Distance. It was certainly not unexpected. I would have been more surprised if she had voted BaB.

I'd be much more inclined to write Skillit off as "couldn't be partner to Coug" then Cerebus. Skillit pushed the initial case on Coug. Cerebus just jumped on at 4 votes. His previous discussion was merely maybe trying to get something started over Joonster putting the 3rd random vote on Skillit.

After the case on Coug died down, Cerebus really didn't push it any more. He kept his vote on for some time, but didn't do much towards pushing others to do the same.

Here is his statement regarding SC vs. Alvinz

The case on Alvinz is identical to the case on SC, yet people are excusing SC for being erratic and not seeing if the same can be applied to alvinz.

Personally, I believe that both acted scummy, but I am leaning toward SC for now because being a bad player doesn't change the fact that what he did was suspicious, and if you think it DOES excuse him, then you at the very least owe it to alvinz to consider it excusing him as well. Doing otherwise is inconsistent.

At this point though, I think they are about equal and I could be swayed one way or the other pretty easily for now.

The last paragraph is especially important. If things swing back to lynching SC, then Cerebus is still on the wagon and looks good when SC is lynched. If things lean towards lynching Alvinz, then Cerebus is ready to ditch the SC wagon and hop aboard.

[Electra]

I think Coug/Electra are a scum pair. Does BaB fit as scum with them? That I do not know.

@Electra: Why did you vote Coug over BaB?

I simply don't feel that BaB is our best lynch today. He doesn't work as the roleblocker, and I think there are signs of him being pro-town beyond even the one I pointed out earlier. I'm not fully sold on this read, by any stretch, but I'm wary about lynching him today.

Anyway, I feel comfortable voting Coug. Anyone have any reasons why I should not do so?

Two reasons - he already had a vote on him, and people seem to think he's more likely to be a roleblocker. Since I am neutral between BaB and Strangercoug, it makes more sense to vote him.

As for being a scumpair... the only thing I can say is, no. :p Unfortunately, I can't defend against the actions of cerebus, except to say that the evidence only seems like evidence when looking at it from that viewpoint.

[Dean Harper]

Happy Birthday to Sthar8!!!

[sthar8]

Mod: Thanks!

This is a big one, so I'm going to be busy for the next few days, as I've got to renew my driver's license, military ID, etc. I'm also going to be V/LA for the weekend, as I'm postponing festivites until then because of a big test tomorrow morning. I should still be posting at least until friday afternoon, but I wouldn't expect anything susbstantial.

I'd be much more comfortable with an electra lynch than SC. I didn't like cerberus's tendency to disappear whenever no one was paying attention to him, and I'm suspicious of the way electra entered the game. SC has seemed genuine to me since the beginning, and I'm having a hard time imagining him as scum.

[StrangerCoug]

C'mon, guys! Nothing in almost 48 hours!?

[Skillit]

im still waiting for bab to finish up with his waterpolo game

[Dean Harper]

Keep up the activity guys, I don't want to deadline you, but I will if I have to.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

sorry guys it's yom kippur and I've had no time.

Real Quick Responses:

1) my self-vote, in hindsight, was a bad idea. I realized this and switched my vote back to SC.
2) As for being erratic: eh, I was posting odd stuff, but erratic? I was trying different gambits and stuff, because (as I thought before), town didn't have much of a chance to win. I was trying to do things to help us. No, they haven't help us much, and I'm doing trying crazy things for this day probably.
Anyway, how is erratic posting scummy?
and how was the gambits I've done scummy? A vote for SC at this stage meant nothing because there needs to be two misvotes. I've explained this before.
3)Goat: I haven't looked at their day 1 interactions yet. Will do.
4) IMPORTANT: what questions have I not answered from SC or anyone? My ignoring is not intentional. Please rewrite them so I know what I missed. Thanks.
5) There is some indescribable quality about them that makes Skillit's posts so hard to comprehend. And don't know how I could possibly benefit from lying about this, but I'll try to get to them later.

[veerus]

Sthar brings up some valid points about Electra/cerebus' behavior, but I'm not sure they outweigh the scumminess displayed by SC and BaB.

mod:

Please note that I will be V/LA until Tuesday the 14th.

[Dean Harper]

Guys, I'm sending out a mass prod with the exception of BaB and veerus, as they have both accounted for their absences. If activity doesn't get better by tomorrow night, I am going to deadline the game for two weeks from saturday.

[StrangerCoug]

Sorry about that. I'm here. I still think BridgesAndBaloons is our best bet here.

I'll address his latest post to get reactions.

1) my self-vote, in hindsight, was a bad idea. I realized this and switched my vote back to SC.

You voted me the first time to get reactions, which doesn't help a lot in a lynch-or-lose situation. After you voted me the second time, you said that you thought Electra was scum and that, given your vote on me instead, one of the three of us had to be. Why don't you put your vote where your mouth is?

2) As for being erratic: eh, I was posting odd stuff, but erratic? I was trying different gambits and stuff, because (as I thought before), town didn't have much of a chance to win. I was trying to do things to help us. No, they haven't help us much, and I'm doing trying crazy things for this day probably.
Anyway, how is erratic posting scummy?

Because erratic behavior is more likely to cause the loss of the player engaging in it than not, especially right now.

and how was the gambits I've done scummy?

Gambits are usually associated more with scum than town. (An exception would be Kokusho's Gambit.)

A vote for SC at this stage meant nothing because there needs to be two misvotes. I've explained this before.

And you still have a vote out on me because?

Confirm vote: BridgesAndBaloons

4) IMPORTANT: what questions have I not answered from SC or anyone? My ignoring is not intentional. Please rewrite them so I know what I missed. Thanks.

None that I could think of as of that post.

5) There is some indescribable quality about them that makes Skillit's posts so hard to comprehend. And don't know how I could possibly benefit from lying about this, but I'll try to get to them later.

Please do.

[Dean Harper]

Ok, its only 5:00, but I doubt any amount of activity is going to happen within the next few hours. You have been officially deadlined for next Sunday, October 19th. If you do not reach a decision by then, No Lynch will be declared. You have 8 days...

[Rage]

Ugh, sorry, but I'll be out for most of the day tomorrow.. so don't expect much of a post, if any, from me.

[Dean Harper]

If they dont respond by tomorrow night, Goatrevolt, Skillit, and Electra will be replaced.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm still here. Going to hopefully read through BaB, Skillit, Rage 2.0 and give some analysis before voting, but if I don't get around to it, my vote will be on SC.