A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Regfan]

Hmm.. you probably shouldn't have said that. For example, I interpreted the jailing as the mod will announce the

numbers

, not the actually people who voted where. If scum saw it like that too, they could've sent in their votes for someone to try block a PR or something.

So I have a neat question here, why the hell would you ask this and why would you tell everyone about it if it's true? This is not the kind of information town should be looking for. Anyone asking for clarification about if their jail choice is going to be outted should be kicked in the balls.
(I see Edd said the same thing. Too little too late I guess)

Simply put because I clarify every little thing with Faraday. Faradays later comment in Post 1659 hinted very strongly that revealing of names and such would be the case so it's not outting anything that scum don't already likely know and if they didn't the odds of it being revealed via one of them asking themselves, someone else bringing it up or Faraday making it more clear in the thread are super high so I don't see the harm in revealing it earlier rather than later so we can organize a proper jailing technique or plan for today (Which would be everyone just sending in their vote on a town-read they want alive rather than a pool of 3).

DCL/Jal/Regfan scumteam. Bvoigt/Staeg/MoS scumteam. Starbuck might be some weird third party. [Snip]

WHAT'S LEFT(the lynches after the above pile):

Petyr Baelish7) kortul, 18) Benmage

For one if you think I'd buss in a multi-ball on D1 you're kidding yourself or don't know me at all and for two you've dropped your 'super-mega-strong-town-read' on me because DCL was defensive to me pushing on him (Which is likely because I was the only person focusing on him at the time and if I continued it'd likely lead to his lynch.) For three I want you to explain to me why Kortul/Benmage are in your nullish tier, think both are relatively obvtown.

I'm leaning town on Benmage, but there were a few things that bothered me with his early play - some buddying and I don't like that he called for snowstorm's mason buddy to claim. [Snip] My read on Benmage has shifted to leaning scum. He's defended DCL, bvoigt (who will likely flip scum), he demanded that snowstorm's buddy claim and now he'd prefer to lynch the claimed power-role. All of this taken in combination makes him pretty likely scum.

I don't think buddying is a scum-tell for him, think he just does it naturally, I remember him doing it to Llamarbale in White Flag where Benmage was town. He didn't really defend DCL in fact I'd argue that the way he reacted to him is significantly more likely to make him town, his reaction was the way that DCL claimed is town but that DCL still needed to die, I remember a conversation and interaction between the two where Benmage was telling DCL that he had to die for the good of the town with DCL arguing, that doesn't come from partners, not a chance. Also his defending of Bvoigt is something I did at the time too as was his fight towards different lynches, both of the wagons came across as town D1 (Sapor/Bvoigt) and it was a constant fight to try to find a better compromise lynch.

I have never seen Regfan as scum. Can he not fake his town meta?

No, I can't. I mean my scum play is relatively effective, if someone didn't know my meta at all and I was scum against them I'd be very likely to win, think I've only been lynched 2ish times in 10 scum games but my town and scum play have a lot of differences in them. I absolutely detest being scum and it comes across in my play a lot, get very dis-motivated, lurk quite a bit and all up don't contribute much time to 'thinking' about the game.

[Regfan]

Finished going through a bunch of ISO's. Still very confident in Pandora, Lyanna, Benmage, DEdd, Tyene, Molla, Pless, Kortul and Sapor being town. Also now confident in Shadow being town too, don't think he'd fake this as scum and fairly confident that Zdenek is town too, will never understand the mass amount of people flaking from that slot though. My town-read on ABR (Cow) and MoI have weakened a little bit, about level with Shinori, Feysal and Mocking now. Eh, Plum is nulltown. Think there's a good chance that Minimum/Staeg contain a scum and still have to re-read Jal and MoS later.

(Re:Starbuck): You seem to have no problem with calling other people town. Why do you hate to admit that she is very probably town?

Because I find her play disgustingly bad.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

I don't think the good players are playing that spectacularly and Shadow was likely to be protected, so I don't see the mason kills as problematic, personally.

It probably does make most sense to use the jailer on someone townie-looking with no coordination. Trying to use it on someone scummy just seems like bad play since it's not going to prevent the nightkill (even uncoordinated any halfway competent scum team should have a member who's practically guaranteed not to have been jailed).

^scum

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Glad to see you're finally comin around on that townread, Regfan.
I'll probably need you to sheep me tomorrow, unfortunately. Although to give you a hint in your Minimum/Staeg dilemma, it's Minimum.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

I was also thinking about it and I don't think we have the greatest of chances to do any good if we expect to block a kill by scum that everyone just unanimously agrees on. Instead, people should be thinking of this as a doctor protect and protect the highest townread they have that is not Shadow. There are a couple people floating around that are even townier than the obvtowns, so I think protecting them from death is better than taking a shot in the dark at blocking a scumkill.

[BBmolla]

No dog, protecting town is bad, you'll stop me from using my ability.

[BBmolla]

Ignoring Zdenek, probably town, but so flawed is everything he says, it's not worth reading.

Jal is probably scum.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

dude I would never jailkeep an obv-PR.
that's a really shitty move, man.

but in all seriousness, we have a better chance of doing positive with something like this by protecting people we want to see tomorrow AND maybe getting lucky and blocking a kill on top of that. that lets us push scumreads during the day without scum knowing shit (except which of their members is most likely to be tracked), and we don't gotta talk about town or nulls today.

[Eddard Stark]

Warden of the Prince's Pass is a Dornish title traditionally conferred upon the head of House Fowler of Skyreach indicating military seniority over other local lords in the defense of the Prince's Pass.

Day 2, Votecount 5

bvoigt (7) - Dolorous Edd, Staeg, Benmage, Shadow1psc Mastermind of Sin, Shinori, kortul

Not Voting (17):

Minimum, Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, Tyene Sand, MagnaofIllusion, Plums Yo Mamma, Albert B. Rampage, Regfan, Zdenek, Bvoigt, Plessiezarus, Feysal, Pandora, Saporerint, Starbuck, BBmolla, Jal

With 24 alive it takes 13 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 22nd September at 00:39am Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-21 19:39:47)
  
• MagnaofIllusion is V/la

[Dolorous Edd]

For one if you think I'd buss in a multi-ball on D1 you're kidding yourself or don't know me at all

I think you're trying to create this imaginary scene in which you pushed so hard on DCL and lead his wagon with a fiery passion. You didn't. Reality is, he comes in, you basically attack him and say you don't like his replacement entrance. Then you just start pointing out things that any person would've already saw "sheeping edd" "snips a little here and there". It basically sounds like a tutoring session than actually genuine suspicion. Then you just post a big paragraph in 892 that is basically looking like you're trying to guide DCL rather than actually suspect him. He doesn't even respond to that (and you don't push it back either). Then you just tell him to link you to games he was scum and town, and then ignore what he posted and what he says. Post 1206 you say

"Also I don't like a Shadow wagon but I can do with DCL though right now my preference probably still is one of Minimum and Stefan but there's no support for either of those."

Which is really funny. Because DCL did not have a wagon on him

at all

when you voted (note, not chose) for him, and you say you prefer a Mini or Stefan yet you vote someone you suspect less, who was no wagon. Yea, ok. It just looks like you are trying to distance and look like you are pushing on DCL if DCL were ever to get lynched and flip scum, yet at the same time you leave your doors open to conveniently vote Mini or Stefan. Then you switch and choose DCL in 1244, which puts him in no danger whatsoever, because at that time, both greenknight and Feysal were much more likely choices. Some time later, DCL gets paranoid and sees that he jumped to something like L-2. And then he just starts counter-pushing on you. C'mon, let's be honest, did he

really

think he could've honestly pushed a lynch on you? Or was it all just for glamour, to look like you had just pushed this big huge wagon on him and that he was trying to battle it back? In reality though, I don't really see why he would've singled you out at all, because frankly you really didn't push

that

hard, and most of the votes just ended up coming after the switch when greenknight claimed mason. 1374, DCL lists you so boldly as scum and saying "already explained why his [your] vote was bad". And DCL does actually make a very good point. You did basically ignore what you asked for and then did not say anything indicating you factored it in your vote. Too bad though, the only person who would've noticed that at that time would've been your scum partner, because frankly, while

you

did seem to focus on DCL to the point that you wouldn't have forgotten some of the things he said,

he

on the other hand gave no real indication that he was suspecting you or keeping a watch on you or anything. Your whole interaction on a whole just seems artificer. It's like you didn't really expect him to actually get lynched/chosen in the end, but because of certain situations (ex, greenknight claiming mason) everybody just ended up putting pilling up their votes on DCL, which just left you in a position to either a) continue to push and make it look like you believe in what you're doing even more or b) to retract and lessen the attack on DCL. Obv, (a) is a much much better option, and so you just seemed to go with that.

For three I want you to explain to me why Kortul/Benmage are in your nullish tier, think both are relatively obvtown.

Kortul because he just clicks off. He just feels weird on the whole. And whenever I look at his ISO, I really don't feel like he's done anything that scum can't do.
Benmage because I don't like the way DCL in his one of his earlier posts just sniped a little at him, but didn't really continue with it or anything. And while Benmage has been active, etc, I really don't want to end up getting screwed over because he turns out to be scum. However, he really should be one of the much later lynches if anything. I just feel like I shouldn't just place him in the town pile because I'm really starting to lose the confidence about him I once had.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wait, what?

Plum's case wasn't even on the same page...are you kidding me? I voted Sala as a counter to the Minimum wagon (and still think that slot is scum, by the way), there wasn't even a bvoigt wagon at that point.

I didn't even see Plum's case at that time...

how the fuck could I have been purposefully acting against it? How the hell did you think this was a remotely plausible connection?

Since when do things have to be on the same page to happen close to one another? It was on the next page.

Why did you ignore Plumamma's case?

I'm starting to think you didn't even read my post...let me bold it again for you.

[Benmage]

Benmage because I don't like the way DCL in his one of his earlier posts just sniped a little at him, but didn't really continue with it or anything. And while Benmage has been active, etc, I really don't want to end up getting screwed over because he turns out to be scum. However, he really should be one of the much later lynches if anything. I just feel like I shouldn't just place him in the town pile because I'm really starting to lose the confidence about him I once had.

DCL sniped at me... I called him out... and continued to call him out.

I then called him town via his vt claim. Thats not how benmagescum operates.

[Saporerint]

Sapo: He wasn't even Tyrion in the first place so who the fuck cares anymore about whether it was a real fake scum town claim?

Zdenek asked.

[Regfan]

Edd, no, I didn't 'Push him with a fiery passion' but I did bring him back into the focus of potential lynch and choose candidates and the 'you just point out things that anyone else would already see' has got to be one of the stupidest things I've ever heard said in mafia, everything literally everything that happens in-thread are things that 'should be seen by everyone' but that doesn't mean pointing them out is useless, it brings it to the forefront, lets others get opinions on it when in many cases it would have gone unnoticed a lot of the time. Also #892 was a response to DCLs #881, not a summarization of my read on him and in that post I asked him for his scum/town games, when he ignored it I re-asked for the games again. And I voted DCL over Stefan/Minimum who I preferred at the time because a Minimum lynch was impossible, it'd be tried all day and there just flat out wasn't the support for it at all and from memory I went DCL over Stefan at the time because you yourself stated you didn't want Stefan and was looking for a lynch that would have the highest chance of going through in my scum reads. Also I'm pretty damn sure that DCLs whole push on me was him attempting to try and create paranoia of 'oh he's going to shoot Regfan if we give him a gun so we shouldn't choose him' rather than anything else, go back and take a look, that's what he was playing at with it. Worked in a way too, I was super worried that I was going to get vigged at night.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thats not how benmagescum operates.

OMG SELF-META CLEARLY CAN'T BE TRUSTED

[/sarcasm]

[Dolorous Edd]

Also I'm pretty damn sure that DCLs whole push on me was him attempting to try and create paranoia of 'oh he's going to shoot Regfan if we give him a gun so we shouldn't choose him' rather than anything else, go back and take a look, that's what he was playing at with it. Worked in a way too, I was super worried that I was going to get vigged at night.

Umm, no? If he was town there was no way in hell he would've actually vigged you. Idc what he actually said, I am 99% sure that he would've ended up shooting someone else. But instead of wasting time on what could've been done, etc, I really don't see why he couldn't have done this and be your partner also?

But alas, trust me my scumread on you is no where near concrete, and there was some things in your interactions that gave me pauses. Might reevaluate later, etc. But if Jal does flip scum and with Stannis, then you definitely should be lynched before endgame. If I would have to rank my lynch preferences day by day it would be something like:

Bvoigt today --> Jal tomorrow --> Staeg the next day (if Bvoigt flips with a different faction than DCL) --> MoS the next --> Regfan the next --> And then the rest of the ones I listed in 1689 (and Starbuck should really get vigged or something at some point )

And as long as Lyanna/Tyene/Magna/Shadow/Plesszar/Pandora/Sapororerint/BB/Zdenek/Shinori/Feysal/Albert are not lynched, I don't think it can turn bad for town.

[Eddard Stark]

Albert B. Rampage has requested replacement. Searching now.

[Regfan]

What the fuck is with the same few slots constantly replacing out.

Umm, no? If he was town there was no way in hell he would've actually vigged you. Idc what he actually said, I am 99% sure that he would've ended up shooting someone else. But instead of wasting time on what could've been done, etc, I really don't see why he couldn't have done this and be your partner also?

And as long as Lyanna/Tyene/Magna/Shadow/Plesszar/Pandora/Sapororerint/BB/Zdenek/Shinori/Feysal/Albert are not lynched, I don't think it can turn bad for town.

Eh. Disagree. Think if he was town he'd have vigged ignoring everyones requests and Post 1458 in particular worried me. Either way I think his end of dayish push on me was a massive attempt at getting the choose votes of him by appeal to fear and nothing more to it. Also I'd agree with those 'never lynch' list if you remove Feysal/ABR/MoI (Think all 3 are town but wouldn't bet the game on it) and add Benmage and Kortul.

[Mastermind of Sin]

And as long as Lyanna/Tyene/Magna/Shadow/Plesszar/Pandora/Sapororerint/BB/Zdenek/Shinori/Feysal/Albert are not lynched, I don't think it can turn bad for town.

Only about half of this list is accurate. Please try again.

[Mastermind of Sin]

EBWOP: Regfan's version is better, but I'd pull Pless and Sapo off there as well, because I'm not sure on Pless yet and Sapo is still pretty likely scum.

[Jal]

Oh also, I think we need to be wary of VT claims.

I don't think anyone wasn't before. Why wouldn't you be?

@Edd

: You really make me go back and forth with you. I can't figure out any rationality in your thought-process and your conclusions don't make sense.

After all this however, he simply “sheeps” me and chooses Jal, even though he has expressed slight scum reads on others, and he expressed no scum read at all for Jal. And in the tiers he posts in 804:

He lists Jal as a strong scum read. There is no way in he there can simply be a strong scum read based on sheeping someone else. Note, while he also mentions that he doesn’t like Benmage, Benmage doesn’t appear at all in the tiers (this is probably a plus in Benmage’s favor, seeing as DCL would’ve prob made sure he put him in the tiers if he mentioned him). Neither Tyene, who he also expresses scumread on. But Jal is there?

What you have here, are reasons why

DCL

is scum.

Frankly, there's no reason for scum-DCL to come into the thread, point fingers at multiple people, and then voted his lovable scum buddy Jal whom he said nothing about prior in his little reads.

Instead, when he talks about Tyene and Benmage, he doesn't indicate that they're scum, just that they either did something odd or something he didn't like and proceeds to not put them anywhere, which is odd itself. DCL doesn't give or say much about either of us three or Feysal probably because he had trouble trying to find something scummy whatsoever, which is sometimes hard for scum to do.

Given that Tyene and Benmage were perceived town by most people D1, there's the possibility given DCL's self-conscious behavior, one of them may be scum. He may have felt one of them was perceived as far scummier than they actually were. Eh, there's also the possibility he was trying to attack big-time universal town reads (as he later on tried to do with Starkgirl and Reggie) to hopefully knock them down a peg. So I wouldn't stake too much on this until after some flips.

I don't see where he listed me as a strong scum read though, only that he voted for me because he was sheeping you.

This really makes Jal a likely partner. It’s the type of interaction that I would expect a scum who just came in the game to do. It is that weird combination of pushing on someone and saying they are scum, but knowing they are no where near a lynch, so it’s really a “safe-push” meant for you to look good. Not that it seems he put much effort in it though, because I really don’t consider saying “sheeping Player X” as really much effort.

He was self-conscious enough to think he was joining

two

of the biggest bandwagons, when the bandwagon on me had only three persons including him. There were 21 posts between SnowStorm's vote for me and DCL's vote which happened in a time period of 3 hours and at the time there were no protests. The protests

then

came after vote and then people pointed out how yours was shitty too. It certainly did

not

look like the bandwagon on me was "safe" and wouldn't be going places. The fact that he was self-conscious about it and commented it in such a manner that got him chosen in the first place, indicates he actually thought it was possibly going somewhere.

However, I do have time to look at Jal’s POV. Post 1395, Jal chooses Feysal over DCL. At the time, Feysal was at 8 and DCL was at 12, so it was pretty close, and could’ve still swung any way. This is what Jal had to say about DCL:
In post 1395, Jal wrote:
DLC's slot leans a bit town. redFF coming back after awhile, speaking only of Starbuck briefly and then replacing the game just struck me as town. I think scum would be a lot more mindful of what they'd say.

Which is pretty much crap.

He also hadn’t mentioned the redff/DCL spot at all before, making it convenient for him to come at any time and drop a read one way or another on the slot without having something before that he has to continue on.

In what exact way was my reasoning crap pre-flip? You thought DCL was fucking town most of the game, finally chose him later saying you were convinced, and then later went on to read him as null even though you had a fucking scum read on Feysal. This from the same person who said we should choose our second strongest scum read. Give me a fucking break.

You are only calling it crap given our knowledge of the flip

now

. Yeah, unfortunately I don't have knowledge of who is actually scum prior a flip.

Also, for someone who apparently went through my ISO, you would have seen

I'm going to take the advice someone gave to another and just ISO the top wagons.

Which is why I went through and gave a read on both him and Feysal at the time. There's 28 people in the game. Guess how many people I have yet to mention before?

I made my reasoning clear why I chose Feysal, indicating I thought his two scum reads aside from Starbuck were the top wagons of the day which seemed odd and "safe" and given my that I thought DCL was town, I voted for Feysal based on this and being more of an unknown. Do you disagree with that reasoning?

You list Feysal as a townread now, where on Monday you had him as scum. Given the flips for the day and acknowledgement that this game is probably multiball, where did your scum read on Feysal go?

Same goes with Starbuck. When and how did she become a townread after saying shit all, then become a potential third party after saying shit all?

My only regret yesterday, was throwing a vote on Stefan at the end of the day, because he was retardedly town at the end of the day and people were throwing votes on him for shit reasoning regarding his claim.

[Eddard Stark]

Magua replaces Albert B. Rampage

[Magua]

*points at list of people to vote*

*spreads arms wide*

[kortul]

Just ISOing DCL wasn't exactly productive - he posted not much content. Also, i think that after almost no vote changes after his VT claim, he realized that the fight is over, so analyzing the rest of his posts is too WIFOM for me. I already see the discussions on the interpretations whether something is distancing or not.

When DCL entered the game, obviously he wasn't aware that he is going to die soon, so he made posts planning on a long game. So why DCL was comfortable to make a quick choice between Feysal and greenknight in CHOOSE section, but for some reason ignored most bigger VOTE wagons and decided to make an obviously strange vote on Jal, saying that he is aware that he is joining two of the bigger wagons? I checked the only other game where he replaced in as a scum, and while the content he posted was MUCH more solid there, his first vote was placed on his partner, and he was sitting on it for the rest of the day, and the following day as well (though, before placing his vote he made several relevant comments in catch-up, and others actually followed him based on that mini-case). While in our game he was more on the lurking side, there's a chance that his first intentions here are the same, maybe on subconsious level.

Since English isn't my first language, i am also curious - is there anything that hints that "Dolorus Edd" has to be addressed as "she"? DCL did that even after being corrected.


Back to what happened today. I liked several Pless posts today - his analysis is good, and he is asking relevant questions, not just nitpicking. I also mostly like the catch-up content from Zdenek, finally that slot got a replacement who is working to see the whole picture.

Also, for someone who apparently went through my ISO, you would have seen

I'm going to take the advice someone gave to another and just ISO the top wagons.

Which is why I went through and gave a read on both him and Feysal at the time. There's 28 people in the game. Guess how many people I have yet to mention before?

Jal

, so why did you decide to ISO choose wagons, where reaching 15 votes wasn't necessary, over ISO-ing vote wagons, where your vote were more important?

Magua - short answer to your unspoken question is that yesterday Shadow1psc claimed to be roleblocker/rolecop, and bvoigt - odd-day vig. And in the morning Shadow claimed that he found no active abilities on bvoigt. Lying in this case makes little sense, so unless Shadow is sacrificing himself just to get rid of bvoigt during the day, bvoigt claim was fake, he is on a way to lynch, and there's time for analyzing wagons and interactions, allowing replacements to catch-up, lurkers to come forward, discussions and some slow pondering on how to use PM jailing.

[Shinori]

Requesting to be jailed for what it's worth. I'll keep the rest of my info to myself as I'm not to sure of it YET.