Mini Normal 1775 END!

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1725 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 6:35 am

I'm so undecided against Diefire and Lowell. Has Riabi said why he prefers Diefire over Lowell?

UNVOTE: for now to ensure Dierfiere doesn't get lynched. I'm not going to be able to have time to look this over until later today

ToastyToast · Post Post #1726 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 5:48 pm

You still haven't really given much reasons behind your Dierfire vote either...

ToastyToast · Post Post #1727 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 5:51 pm

In post 1724, Dierfire wrote:If you're bored in the meantime I guess that you could tell me who you think is the last Mafia player.

Right now, Lowell is my lead with alone close behind.

But I think I'm getting confused on who has what role...who is the claimed jailkeeper? Was it Riabi?

heuristically_alone · Post Post #1728 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 5:59 pm

In post 1719, Lowell wrote:smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

VOTE: Lowell

I really don't like how Lowell has defended himself for the most part. Most of his defenses to other's reads/evidence/analysis has read like this and I am astounded it has worked this entire time.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1729 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 6:01 pm

Chilled tea claimed jailkeeper. He's dead. Madonna is backup, and alone claimed joat. Everyone else VT.

Lowell · Post Post #1730 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 3:12 am

In post 1728, heuristically_alone wrote:
In post 1719, Lowell wrote:smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

VOTE: Lowell

I really don't like how Lowell has defended himself for the most part. Most of his defenses to other's reads/evidence/analysis has read like this and I am astounded it has worked this entire time.

This is how my towngames usually go. Ppl say "ugh lowell is scummy" but don't vote me bc in their hearts they know it's just laziness, not scumminess. Then at some point they get annoyed and lynch me, then comfort themselves the next day by remarking on how scummy I was playing.

What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1731 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 4:39 am

In post 1730, Lowell wrote:What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.

What are the associative tells that point to Dier? IIRC your case was basically that he relied on them and that made him mafia. Are there strong tells that point to him? Given that you're very likely to be today's lynch (the case on you seems to be the strongest), if you want to build the case so that in case we're wrong, we can lynch him tomorrow, that'd be helpful to be honest. Right now I'm really not seeing much of a Dier case.

Lowell · Post Post #1732 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 4:42 am

What I'm saying is the case against me defies all reason from a VC or associative tells POV. While I'm normally the first one to yell "WIFOM", really try to imagine me also being scum with either of the two scum lynches. It makes no sense.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1733 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 5:06 am

I think you're going to actually have to spell out how it makes no sense, because I think it does make sense given Boon/Gamr's behavior, most notably:

1) Boon "going to bat" for you on day 1
2) Garmr seemingly strategically dropping his "suspicion" of you on days 2 and 3 before roaring back on day 4

Like I said, I could easily be wrong. It happens a lot. So if it doesn't make sense, explain to me how it doesn't make sense. IMO the evidence against you is pretty convincing, and the evidence against anyone else is pretty weak.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1734 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 6:10 am

FWIW, I really think the overall story of the game was:

Day 1 - Garmr bussed Lowell for town credit. Madonna stepped in to save Lowell and got herself killed off instead. Or, as I heard in a different game "unsuccessful bussing is the best kind of bussing"

Night 1 - Garmr's bussing pissed Lowell off, and they had a fight about it, Boon sided with Lowell, and then Garmr was forced to make the kill (and got blocked by CT)
Day 2 - Garmr stopped bussing Lowell, which made his positions start to look awkward and arbitrary (and he got called out on this), and Boon accidentally outed himself by going nuts over Toast's "lurker" assignment.
Day 3 - "Hang Exp day"
Day 4 - Garmr and Lowell bussed each other. Whether because of unresolved anger between them or because they simply didn't have better options, I don't know.
Day 5 - Here we are.

I get that it's a narrative and all, but as a story of the game, it all holds together in a logical and sensible way. It's not the only possible explanation, but I just don't see how it DOESN'T hold together.

ToastyToast · Post Post #1735 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 7:16 am

In post 1730, Lowell wrote:
In post 1728, heuristically_alone wrote:
In post 1719, Lowell wrote:smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

VOTE: Lowell

I really don't like how Lowell has defended himself for the most part. Most of his defenses to other's reads/evidence/analysis has read like this and I am astounded it has worked this entire time.

This is how my towngames usually go. Ppl say "ugh lowell is scummy" but don't vote me bc in their hearts they know it's just laziness, not scumminess. Then at some point they get annoyed and lynch me, then comfort themselves the next day by remarking on how scummy I was playing.

What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.

This isn't a defense, get better at the game.
People "get annoyed and lynch" you because it is hard to read your alignment and that is dangerous in the later days of a game. I can just imagine a situation where there are 3 players left and you are one of them....the chance of miss-lynching and giving scum the win is really high. If you are town, then it still is more beneficial for scum to keep you than it is for town...

Every game you have a percentage chance of rolling scum. You can say "oh but town always does this to me," but that doesn't say anything about the alignment. If I were getting suspected right now I could say "well I've only been scum twice I never get scum" but that also wouldn't say shit. I still have the same chance at rolling scum in a game as everyone else.

So why should I think you're town? The only thing stopping me from lynching you is Riabi just disappearing from the game and the fact that alone's claim is an easy one to fake.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1736 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 8:12 am

Since I really struggle imagine a world in which we don't lynch Lowell today, and really struggle to imagine that lynch not being the correct one, as notes for the future:

In post 1663, Lowell wrote:Offhand thoughts:

heuristically_alone: buying the claim, town
Riabi: looks scummy, but meh still think predecessor's argument w/ boon was real, town
mhsmith0: buying h_a's claim, town despite obvscumminess
texcat: totally forgettable player, tried to string me up instead of garmr, scummy
Dierfire: I don't remember what's happening here
ToastyToast: early townreads, town

VOTE: dier

If not, then tex. Either one is fine.

To me, this is a really gross vote. It's basically a "eh, screw it, let's just vote dier" sort of thing. I don't understand at all how I was "obvscum", and it was clear you didn't wnat to talk about it, which makes me think it was just fake. And the texcat read was sketchy; as if you were reading her mafia mainly because she was wrong, as opposed to specific mafia behaviors.

I also thought the underlying "I didn't realize texcat was dead" bit was non-credible. If you were aware of the thread state enough to realize that people had some interest in your lynch (though votes hadn't been made yet), you should have been aware enough to realize texcat was dead.

PS The fundamental problem with the texcat NK was that lowell really was the only person with kill motive there as mafia. Anyone else as the last mafia would/should have been happy to let texcat and lowell go at it, and more or less stand back and watch the last two mislynches go through. Even wolf!dier with his town read of texcat could have just turned that into a "sure, let's lynch lowell" on D5, and then D6 "changed his mind" and offed texcat, letting her take the blame for the D5 mislynch of lowell. I'm not really sure who each player (if the last mafia) would want dead, but any "last mafia" outside of tex-lowell would/should have shot anywhere else. For instance:
if I was last mafia: I'd shoot alone or toast. Shooting alone would mean I was scared that he might have another useful ability, and I wanted to lock in an "all VT" setup (especially true if I was godfather). OTOH, I could, and probably would, have just shot toast (a town read) as a "no one has special kill motive there" shot.
if alone was last mafia: possibly he should kill me to lock in his JOAT claim. The downside there is that he'd get "why are you still alive" questions on D6, so maybe he'd shoot toast or riabi or dier instead.
if toast/riabi/dier: lots of options. basically could reasonably shoot anyone outside of texcat/lowell and just ride out the wave. Probably would shoot alone, or me (due to alone's claim), or toast.

PPS That advice is probably a bit condescending, and I do apologize for that part. If it makes you feel any better, my wolf game is HORRIBLE. Like, to the point where I don't even get to think through night game because I keep getting lynched quickly. So basically I have understanding of strategy but am poor at operationalizing it and terrible at blending in with town. So you know, you can at least reasonably think to yourself that if MHS was mafia, the game would have been over before now

Lowell · Post Post #1737 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 11:34 am

You trying to bore me to death, fella?

Anyway this whole case is "here's what I would have done as Lowellscum" which, okay, guess I can't argue with that. Point is you're tunneling, and wrong.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1738 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 12:01 pm

No one seems to be in any kind of rush to end the day, so for kicks here's the voting history presuming Lowell is somehow actually town (and alone's claim continues to hold up):

Spoiler: with lowell as town

To me this game state doesn't really make much sense.

If the last mafia:
GLW/dier
D1: Off the Lowell wagon along with Boon, but hops right onto Madonna when she starts to look bad. Shows a clear preference for lynching Madonna there. Not sure why he'd do that as mafia, unless it was solely for the purpose of blending in.
D2: hesitant to vote (IIRC he was absentee), and then ends the day on CT. Odd but not impossible.
D3: hops on the Exp wagon right around when it makes sense to push it towards inevitability. Plausible.
D4: no hurry to vote Lowell. Sheeps my statistical case on Garmr. If Garmr hammered to protect a buddy on the wagon and it wasn't Lowell, it makes sense here.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to get onto Lowell. If last mafia, is looking to extend things however possible while under pressure.
Conclusion: possible final mafia, but the case doesn't particularly jump out at me.

knight/toast
D1: voted Lowell right alongside Garmr, stayed there through day end. Bizarre voting pattern to have two mafia bunching votes there.
D2: no rush to vote at all, until the boon wagon. If he's the last mafia, then he and Garmr hard-core bussed Boon, for seemingly little reason (and in that case, Boon was faking anger at toast as part of theater). To me this makes no sense at all.
D3: Hops onto a different wagon than Garmr. Plausible distancing behavior here I guess.
D4: Not voting at all. Weird behavior if last mafia.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: Hesitant to vote, not in any kind of rush to just get through a mislynch. If last mafia, he's completely dedicated to maintaining thread position and "looking town".
Conclusion: I just can't see it at all. Like, if Toast is the last mafia then he has been amazing at looking town, barring my just totally missing the signs.

Sakura/Riabi
D1: On Lowell, then on Madonna. I need to look at how credible the wagon-switching was.
D2: Gets in fight with Exp, then (IIRC) bounces around a while, then goes nuts on Boon. Given the long-standing preference for lynching Exp (especially given Garmr's discussed fear of Exp), it's possible she pushed that, saw it wouldn't work, and then made it up by hard-core bussing Boon when things started to look bad for Boon.
D3: Well off of the Exp wagon. Plausible coasting on town credit. Need to re-look at the Dier voting to see if it was legit or not.
D4: well off of the Garmr lynch. It's a bit odd that Garmr would self-hammer with his buddy not on board, but that's what WIFOM is for. IIRC Riabi was kind of vote parking on my slot that day, with a
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to jump on the Dier wagon for "kill motive" (and he STILL hasn't bothered to explain his reasoning)
Conclusion: plausible final mafia, likelier than Dier off the cuff. The narrative of "bussing for town credit, then just coasting the rest of the way" reasonably fits IMO.

Overall, I still think we should lynch Lowell as likeliest mafia, then tomorrow (if we're wrong) probably lynch Riabi, with reasonable consideration given to lynching Dier instead. If someone wants to hard-sell lynching Riabi first I'll listen, and if someone wants to hard-sell lynching Dier instead of Lowell/Riabi I'll listen. But I feel like Lowell and then (on the off chance we're wrong) Riabi really should get us the win.

PS If someone has an explicit "Lowell is town because ___" case I'll listen. So far I haven't actually seen anything remotely convincing. If I'm just tunneling, I want to see the counter-argument.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1739 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 12:07 pm

edit to above: alone currently is on Lowell, not Dier. Missed that one when just copying over FAQ2's counts.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1740 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 12:50 pm

@toast: see
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65746

Spoiler: alive

Spoiler: dead

For role flips. JK/UB are proven dead. Mafia has at least one PR (one is dead, and who knows what the final mafia role is). As far as I know, town never has just 2 PR's in this kind of setup (13 person normal, no SK), especially when mafia has 1+ PR, and especially when the second PR is a backup. So alone, by way of being the ONLY PR claim alive, has to be clear regardless of what I may think of his posting. That was the whole point of my discussion earlier today; I thought he might reasonably be fake-claiming, but everyone else has claimed VT, so he can't be fake claiming, and he definitely can't be a mafia JOAT given the town powers on the board if all others are VT.

PS the absolute final deadline for any kind of CC to alone is today's hammer. Anyone who claims after that hammer (whether today twilight or tomorrow) WILL be considered fake-claiming by me.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1741 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 1:01 pm

@Lowell: I really don't think you can survive today. So either come up with a really compelling explanation of why you simply don't make sense as the last mafia, or give us a really compelling explanation for why it has to be Dier. Right now I'm thinking Dier is the least likely among Dier/Riabi/Lowell, so make a serious attempt to change my mind on this. You say he's "the obvious final scum", so you really should be able to build a pretty compelling case if that's truly what you think.

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1742 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 1:09 pm

VoteCount 5.3With 6 players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (3):

Dierfire, mhsmith0, heuristically_alone

(L-1)

mhsmith0 (0):

Dierfire (2):

Lowell, Riabi

(L-2)

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-15 01:00:00)

NOTES:

FA_Q2 · Post Post #1743 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 3:37 pm

prodding Riabi and Dierfire

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1744 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 5:30 pm

Re reading day 4...

1) garmr and Lowell were basically "oh I guess I might as well vote for you". Quick voted each other but no strong drive to each other's wagons. Alone called it coordinated... and it looks that way to me. Like both were distancing but really hoping that some other wagon would pick up steam instead. Seriously, double iso them, from post 1500 on, and convince yourself that EITHER of them were particularly interested in the others lynch.
1503, 1509, 1514, 1521, 1523, 1560... Compare those to 1381 (garmr on dier), 1296-7 (Lowell on me), those seem a lot more invested than garmr and Lowell on each other.

2) That garmr lynch was bizarrely easy. No meaningful resistance to it once it got going. Where was garmr's buddy trying to save him? If Lowell was town, with substantial board interest in his mislynch, why abandon a plausible mislynch on Lowell?
If it was riabi, he was screwing around with voting me and being a non factor, even as garmr was in danger. 1568 would be an incredibly half hearted attempt to save his buddy, at a time when a stronger push might have done it.
If it was dier, he made an attempt to go for Lowell, and just more or less gave up. Ditto alone.
If it was toast, he just wasn't around enough to really impact things, but he's another who made no real effort to save garmr (though he was sniffing around other potential possibilities, so not impossible I guess).
If Lowell was garmr's buddy, though, he basically couldn't have acted to save garmr given that he was counter wagon, and again it makes sense, more sense than the other possibilities.

Frankly, I'm satisfied. It's not 100%, but I'm thinking something like 75% odds Lowell is the last one. And if we're wrong, we can deal with the remaining options tomorrow. Someone please either hammer or make a convincing argument that I'm wrong. This game state is dull, it feels like people are just sitting around for no good reason. Hammer Lowell or push hard for something else.

Dierfire · Post Post #1745 (ISO) » Mon May 09, 2016 6:28 pm

I'm here.

I continue to like my vote on Lowell.
The point from mhsmith0 about Boon's reaction to being called a lurker by ToastyToast is a good one and raises my confidence there.
I do want to hear from Riabi before the day ends.

@Alone

Did you ever address the discrepancy between the Watcher action and the Tracker result?

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1746 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2016 5:22 am

Lowell, if you're town, please make a serious case for someone else as the final mafia. Given that I'm leaning Riabi if it's not you (and I think toast is too), if you really think it's Dier, it's incumbent on you to make an actual case. OTOH, if you're mafia, you're almost certainly not going to escape getting lynched today, much less today AND tomorrow, so I'd say just self-hammer at this point and move on to the post game.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1747 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2016 6:55 am

SO bored with this game right now. I know what it needs: more charts!

Spoiler: with Sakura/riabi as last mafia

FWIW, I can actually live with this as a case for Riabi being the last mafia. The Lowell case looks stronger to me, but the voting patterns are almost classic mafia team voting patterns (presuming Lowell is somehow town):
Day 1 - avoiding bunching, and Sakura is happy to lynch either townie wagon for scummy-looking behavior
Day 2 - Sakura prominently tries to get Expedience lynched (which plausibly makes sense if she's spooked about him going after Garmr), and then VERY prominently puts herself on the Boon wagon. Per https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-0x ... ef=2&pli=1

As a related point, you can say that if a scum is lynched relatively early in the game then it is pretty likely that at least one of his team mates was on that lynch for the credibility boost and for the tactical option (not taken) of jumping off if to help save his buddy if that play seemed viable.
...
If a scum is being lynched in a near landslide then his buddy or buddies are very likely to be on the lynch and perhaps prominently so…

Day 3 - non-factor. Throwaway vote on Dier. Doubtcasts the Exp wagon, but not so heavily as to actually derail it. Also makes sure that we know the vengeful claim was false; if Garmr was doomed sooner or later, then as mafia would REALLY want us to know that we shouldn't lynch her just for the claim
Day 4 - Riabi vote parks on my slot. If a gambit was involved from A50 in drawing the NK for no good reason, he bit on that one hard.
Day 5 - Happily hops on the Dier wagon without ever bothering to justify himself in any kind of remote sense.

Spoiler: with GLW/Dier as last mafia

I just can't see this. If this slot is last mafia:
Day 1 - Boon and GLW bunch on Madonna in a town vs town situation. Why would they try THAT hard on town vs town?
Day 2 - Dier lets himself park a vote on someone he knows is for real claiming. Basically just a WIFOM sort of thing, i.e. "oh mafia wouldn't have done that"?
Day 3 - Both mafia are actively on a wagon that had tremendous momentum anyway. It only makes sense if they're playing "oh mafia wouldn't have acted like this"
Day 4 - Dier preferred to be on Lowell, but found himself unable to figure out how to push Lowell to L-1 for whatever reason. Or maybe he wanted to hammer but the momentum never got there. Either way, it's kinda weird for buddies to behave like this.
Day 5 - Dier is early leader for seemingly no reason at all. It's WEIRD for three townies to jump that quickly on someone for basically no actual case.

Overall conclusion: if it's not Lowell, it's Riabi. If it's not Lowell OR Riabi, then I simply give up because my reading abilities are crap. As far as I can tell, the Dier case is weak as hell, Toast is town, and alone's claim holds up. OTOH, the Lowell case is strong, and the Riabi case is pretty decent too. So PoE says Lowell or Riabi, and probably Lowell. As far as I'm concerned, this game is solved.

PS I think the final mafia outed themselves on that D5 Dier wagon. Can't tell if Lowell or Riabi. But that wagon was just gross. SO gross.

PPS Lynch Lowell then Riabi or Riabi then Lowell. I'd prefer Lowell then Riabi, because I think the Lowell case is stronger. But unless there's legitimate reason to doubt the other four slots as town, or legitimate reason to doubt Lowell or Riabi as mafia, this game is over.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1748 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2016 6:56 am

edit: Riabi did say he voted Dier for NK motive. But what that motive was, I don't think he ever said. Regardless, it was a gross vote.

Lowell · Post Post #1749 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2016 8:54 am

Gah these vote charts are stupid.

I still don't see Riabi as scum. Looking back at the Sakura/Boon interaction, I just don't see them both as scum. That's some awfully early, awfully aggressive bussing if that's the case. smith is too hapless to be scum. toasty and huer, I forget why, but I have them as town for some reason. That leaves dier.