Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

[implosion]

It's possible (in fact I'd say pretty likely) that ffery was the n1 scum kill target.

[notscience]

that opens up a fuckton of other questions.

[fferyllt]

So what night should I have died?

[implosion]

that opens up a fuckton of other questions.

?

Layla-jailkeeper either wanted to jailkeep ffery defensively or [scum who made the kill] offensively. I shot gnomeo.

What questions does that raise? I guess it raises the question of which of those layla did/who she jailkept if it was targeting scum, but those aren't the kind of questions that I would describe as "opening up a fuckton of other questions" as if it makes it an implausible theory.

[notscience]

Those are my primary questions, and then branching out of said questions are "Is layla the type of person to protect defensively or offensively," "If I were a town JK who targetted (x) and someone claimed a vig on the other person, how do I react regarding my target?"

And I would honestly say N1 or N2, ffery.

[fferyllt]

S-s would have been privy to Layla's night action. Did you get something useful from his reads?

[implosion]

Also massclaim is close enough to over and I'm bored.

I don't want to lynch ffery or RC or Tammy. If someone had any inkling that ffery was scum I'd be open to listening but I certainly still think she's been playing pretty town.

Tammy never really got past the point of the opening shit that I was townreading her for so she never really went on my radar after that. She's probably town even if more town power is claimed.

RC's vinkah case felt pretty town to me. The points didn't feel particularly fabricated and it seems like an peculiar tact for scum-RC to make to come bellowing in to this day with such a large case on vinkah, although I could imagine it as a sort of scum approach especially if his scumbuddies are people that were being pressured. But the miller claim seems more town than not to me. The way it was claimed feels like an unnecessary risk as scum.

That leaves Wicked, ns, Nacho, Oversoul/Vinkah, pie.

I remember having some reason that I thought was good for townreading Wicked. I need to reconvince myself though. Of the other four, the pie vs ns stuff of late has been of interest to me. It was what was making me ping pie as town iirc, but it theoretically could be a cross-bus. Parts of it have felt sort of self-contained in a manner that could be that but I think that's more ns's posting towards pie than pie's posting towards ns.

I think atm I'd be happy with a lynch in {oversoul, nacho, ns}. The thing that is weird about that list is vinkah's last post where he calls nacho+ns scum as he replaced out. Which I guess I can imagine as possible with that scumteam since he was replacing out.

That list is more poe than anything. I still have never seen anything from ns that made me townread him. The realization that parts of vinkah's disillusionment with the game feel disingenuous is extremely significant to me - that disillusionment was a very large part of my townread on him, in particular feeling that it echoed my own. nacho I think I want to ISO.

[implosion]

So I'm doing some casual vca and I might be confirmationbiasing INCREDIBLY hard right now but that scumteam would make so much sense.

Before biasing anything I want people to ask themselves the following probably pretty important question (I want other people's unbiased take on this because I came up with a theory on this after looking at the votecounts).

How would scum be acting in this game? Would they be inclined to bus heavily? Would they be inclined to buddy each other?

My answer:

I think the latter. The overall feeling of apathy in the town would have given scum a more-than-average amount of sway over how the town was voting, since people were looking for guidance but scum already know where they want to go. It was really hard to make a wagon stick for pretty much this entire game, IMO. Scum would, I think, take advantage of that and make it impossible for town to make a wagon on scum that sticks around.

The three people that I said I'd be willing to vote are never voting each other in any vote counts prior to d3. At all. And nacho/ns at least have gotten a fair amount of flak over the course of this game. Furthermore almost every single wagon with at least 3 people on it that was on someone other than nacho/ns/vinkah had at least one of nacho/ns/vinkah on it, with the exception of if there were multiple wagons not on them with at least 3 people each. I just feel like this is the kind of game where scum could get away with not having to bus at all. Again, PLEASE stop me if this is super confirmation bias-y. I want second/third/nth opinions on this.

I also want to look a bit more at the scramble near the end of d1. The ns wagon was static at {boon, imp, rc, pie} for at least 100 posts while other things happened. I think that's interesting. I just really wish we had a damn flip to work with :/.

[notscience]

"Hey guys, I think scum would be more inclined to buddy each other than bus this game!"

"In pie vs ns it left me feeling like pie is town"

Uh huh.

[notscience]

hey implo, I'll play ball

You are town

RC is town from the claim and we know boon is town

Do you really believe there are 4 town on that wagon?

[implosion]

"Hey guys, I think scum would be more inclined to buddy each other than bus this game!"

"In pie vs ns it left me feeling like pie is town"

Uh huh.

How are those statements inconsistent?

[notscience]

I'm saying I'm scumreading pie and I don't understand how me v pie leaves you thinking pie town, and that you are scumbuddies.

[implosion]

I don't see why 4 town on that wagon is unlikely if you're scum.

[implosion]

I actually have things to say for once~

More people should come talk to me~

[notscience]

Purely by the amount of people in this game?

But no, you're right

pie's interactions with me make her town, how could I not see it before?

And clearly the mod made an error and sent me the town role pm, I am in fact scum.

Whoops.

[notscience]

Clearly there's something organic about pie scumreading me and giving me a fuckton of space all fucking game *which I understand that if she had been away she was away* but not pushing me until now.

Alas, I've been hoodwinked all game!

[implosion]

I can't do it with you because I know you're town now.

What was this referring to?

[notscience]

Are you seriously asking that question

[notscience]

Like I ctrl+f'd that and could tell what it was talking about

what

[implosion]

ns i love how helpful you as town are being right now in helping me read you in the event that we are both town

it's really helpful and I just wanted to thank you and that's all

[notscience]

oh, I'm sorry

I was under the impression you haven't stopped scumreading me all game and had no intention to

Sorry I don't magically know all your markers for town so I can perform them for you?

[implosion]

After reading through rc's posts I am baffled, or perhaps I'm just stupid. All I see is him going from scumreading you to townreading you presumably as a result of the end-of-day shenanigans, which is neither specific enough for me nor does it seem to justify the phrasing of "I know why you're town now." So do please enlighten me.

[notscience]

I thought you were referring to the first part, which was evident in that post.

I have no idea why he's townreading me.

[notscience]

It's also telling that pie is choosing to argue with me rather than try and sway tammy and ffery to follow her

[implosion]

A vinkah+pie+nacho team also actually fulfills all of the vc criteria that I stated earlier. Never voted each other, always had at least one on major wagons. I think.