Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)

[Aegor]

here will post later today or tomorrow

[mastin2]

Popcorn flavor claim: Mastin2

*grumble, grumble, make me check my inbox for something worthless, grumble, grumble*
Nash Rumack, a highly-appropriate description given to me being an arrogant neophyte sorcerer of the magic guild, where I'm a student. (Bah. I should be running an academy, not being a student at one!) All talk and no bite, with minimal skills at thunder magic. (Highly paraphrased, butyeah. VT.)

Unless the entire town agrees it's for the best... until the obvious happens. (See mastin's post referencing this.)

You should do it anyway. Chance of blocking kill is less valuable than chance of confirming self at this stage of the game.

I did some commenting before the site downage that I'd appreciate commentary on. Basically, of coordinating a strategy where we have the best chance of winning, along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.

[Kdub]

Yes, I'm a neighbor at the shrine where I'm starting a new life, having turned my back on my sisters. I'm a miller because people still recognize me as one of them, and I'm a doctor because I've been rewarded by Althena with some of her power for defecting from the others.

OK, sounds plausible. I wanted SG to claim flavor to see if her character made sense with Phacia as a neighbor. Phacia/Jessica initially struck me as a strange neighborhood pairing. I'd bet pretty heavily that the final scum is Ghaleon, and if he were a neighbor, he would probably make more sense with Phacia. However, that would require that Mac's flavor explanation (assuming he is town in this case) match up with SG's fakeclaim flavor, AND allow for whatever flavor reason bork used to justify putting Ghaleon as his neighbor as well. I admit it's speculative on my part, but in terms of flavor and what I suspect bork would do, it does seem to make more sense for both of them to be town.

Anyway, I'm not really interested in other's flavor claims, but just for completeness, my role PM just says I'm a regular kid from Burg who suddenly became a dragonmaster, and I vow to overcome trials for the honor of my hometown.

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

[mastin2]

Oh, hey, I just realized that I'm actually somewhat-familiar with this game's flavor! I got really interested in playing the game and read the TVTropes page and all that. (The name Ghaleon sounded familiar, then I remembered from what.)

That actually would make a concern about BRO be valid, though, in that Ghaleon from a flavor perspective WOULD be a Godfather given that he was a hero and the heroes were blindsided by him actually being a villain. (His villainous reveal scene is the one that I watched a youtube clip of and got me obsessed with reading the TVTropes page for.) PROBABLY not something to be concerned about.

[mastin2]

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.

[mastin2]

Basically, I was hoping someone who was actually there could shed some light on the VCA I did. The switches and reversals and buildups I said were potentially relevant and all that. What I quoted were basically ones that I felt could be of importance, with ones of extreme interested noted.

Also, that also doesn't cover the other bit, about forming a plan, for today, if needed tonight, and if needed for future days. I'd rather not have us blindly lynch Aegor, have him flip town, and then be left with nothing. I'd much prefer we lynch Aegor and have the game end right then and there, but failing that, to have us lynch Aegor, and if he flips town, have a very strong idea of what that means and where to go from there.

Which I don't have.

[BROseidon]

You guys should really just let me coast.

Mac confirms himself on the self-watcher, since that creates a stronger innocent than the one on me (Unless he's changed his policy, he doesn't let scum use their own ability and the factional nk).

Will have more thoughts when I get time to sift through this game.

[Squirrel Girl]

along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.

[mastin2]

along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.

They're saying the same thing?

[Squirrel Girl]

I feel like 2026 is saying 'I presented VCA that shows that Aegor is scum'
I think 2029 is saying 'My VCA was presented to get opinions from others and I can't explain anything about it'

Which one do I have wrong?

[Aegor]

My motivation for this game is almost nonexistent and I have very little else to contribute. This is where I would vote myself, but I actually care a little bit about the outcome of this game, so I will force others to do so.

I am happy to answer any questions or provide specific analysis, but it is unlikely I will go through the game and post a case or anything similar unless circumstances change.

[Mac]

Gonna be V/LA the weekend

[mastin2]

I feel like 2026 is saying 'I presented VCA that shows that Aegor is scum'
I think 2029 is saying 'My VCA was presented to get opinions from others and I can't explain anything about it'

Which one do I have wrong?

Both?

The VCA shows a trend which I THINK points to Aegor, but it's based off of abstract (and largely arbitrary) things, making a ton of assumptions about the gamestate that I have no way of knowing actually hold water. So I brought it up mainly to see if others could shed some light on it.

[Kdub]

Aegor's hammer on HKC actually struck me as townish, because if he had parked his vote on SG instead, it's pretty likely that deadline pressure would have made Jake or someone else switch their vote. I've had problems with Aegor for other reasons, but that particular move seemed probably town.

At this point, I think it's down to mastin or Aegor for today's lynch.

[Aegor]

I still maintain with steadfast conviction that Mac should confirm himself by protecting penguin or else be lynched tomorrow.

Why mastin, KDub? Could you elaborate on your "known scum" comment in 2002?

[Kdub]

Agree with Mac confirming himself tonight.

Known scum = HKC, in the sense that we know now (after their flip) that they were scum. I'm leaning toward the mastin slot for just that reason. If Muffin was scum, he would have been trying to get SG lynched over his buddy yesterday.

[mastin2]

So basically. I kinda get a bit of a vibe. This is...well, a little hard to explain, but highly Xenoish in feeling, in that, well, I kinda get the feeling that today, we're going to lynch Aegor as a best-guess for scum, as a just-in-case, as the read we most likely agree on, that he has the highest chance of being scum (that's where I still feel like going, in fact)...
...But that he actually isn't. That in spite of me thinking that he could be scum that's trying to win a tough-to-win game, that in spite of me thinking he makes the most sense as scum, that in spite of me thinking that he's simply putting on a show and in spite of me thinking he kinda looks like obvscum at some times, that somehow he's actually town and that the game will go on after his lynch.

...And that in spite of feeling that way, we're going to lynch him anyway as a JUST-in-case.

Really kinda hard to explain that feeling, but I get the vibe that it means I can't just slack off here and actually have to do some work.

[mastin2]

So dealing in worst-cases,
We lynch Aegor, he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We lynch Kdub (or Squirrel), (s/)he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We go into lylo with three players, minus the nightkills.

ASSUMING (this is a bit of an assumption, though) that all three of the 'cleared' players are clear, that would necessitate one of them living to lylo, making it a 50/50 shot. (100% from my perspective, of course, but talking from objective terms, still 50/50.) But that does rely on the assumption of cleared players being clear.

Now, I THINK that Mac targeting PA can give us a reasonable window. It might not clear both players, but it can significantly increase the likelihood of their towniness. And from who the scum would target, I think we'd get a better idea of the gamestate. (They have to target one of the three conftown. If they're one of the conftown, then not targeting a conftown will create paranoia about conftown not being conftown, which the conftown-scum wouldn't want. If they're scum, they could try that to induce paranoia about the conftown not being conftown, but if said paranoia fails, then that'd leave two conftown alive in lylo to lynch the scum. Basically, not killing conftown is moderate-to-high risk, with low-to-moderate reward, so regardless of who the scum are, they're going to kill one of the conftown. Which conftown dies can be important, though. I just haven't fully figured out the math as to how.)

I'm thinking about it, and I kinda sorta want to try out lynching Kdub. But this is all without having really looked at any piece of the gamestate, for insight into how things went. I really was kinda hoping I could slack off this game, but it looks like I need to give a little bit of effort. (Note, though, that while I'm going to be giving a little bit of effort...I refuse to give a ton of effort. Builds stress, and isn't nearly as productive, and I have a life outside mafia games that it interferes with.)

This game's basically a near-certain town win, but I want it to BE that certain town win, AND for it to be that town win as quickly as it can be.

[mastin2]

So I'm isoing SMP. On the one hand, decently-powerful scum PR. On the other hand, pretty much no matter who the last scum is, definitely the weakest scum player on the scumteam and basically deadweight.

hmph...
SMP where are you? Why have you only had ONE post all game? I don't even think I'm usually this quiet, especially in a fast moving game like this.

Why the tunnel on SMP when I'd been equally inactive up to this point?

I imagine it's because I'm one of the only ones he's played a game with.

Looks potentially important, though.

You just noticed? Why was my catboi vote the one that prompted a vote on me from you?

This is a curious post. You don't deny what you were doing at all.
Does HKC always have so many posts, a decent percentage of which just kinda clog up the thread? I understand that walls are frowned upon, but a couple of those 1-2 sentence posts could be merged together to make things somewhat easier to read.

Would SMP group two scumbuddies together like this?

Jake, I can't even really disagree with you. If anyone else had the same amount of activity as me I'd probably think they were scum also. Unfortunately, I really just have been that busy this week.

I think there's one scum on my wagon at this point. Jake, you seem town motivated to me. Aegor seems to be in the same vein as Jake, though the no explanation votes earlier in the day are still somewhat worrying. I can't really get a read on HKC, there's so many filler posts that it's difficult to pull the worthwhile posts out.

That just leaves BROseidon. I think it's between him and whoever is controlling the ??? vote. BRO for the later in the game day middle vote (4th/7) that tends to push a wagon to L-1 and a claim. If a new wagon doesn't start up soon the original person usually gets lynched. It's not a strong read, but it's my strongest non-hidden voter read. Whoever controlling the ??? vote is my strongest scum read. They put their vote on me when it was only HighShroomish on it. If a wagon formed, great, they don't need to move it to help scum. If nothing came of it, they can just move their vote to the wagon that forms to quicklynch. Jake, you mentioned that you think you know who the ??? is, do you think they're town or scum?

Until I get a better understanding on who the ??? is I'm leaving a tentative vote on BRO.
VOTE: BRO

Jake interaction vaguely looks town, but no way of being sure. Aegor read also very vaguely looks town, but can't be certain. HKC was the scum-null-read, and I think this bit about BROseidon is decent enough to call BROseidon likely town outside the result on him.

I leave for a couple hours and come back to Jake and HKC blowing up the thread with their half drunken town vs town exchange.

AKA, not scum vs scum.

I like Anti's posts since coming into the game, though I'm not really getting the kdub read. Where are you getting that from Anti?

(Note, check Anti's reads. They tend to be awesome.) Seriously warming up to a kdub vote now.

I'm odd night rolecop + reporter. Last night I got a vanilla role result from my target. I don't want to reveal the name since if they're town then I don't want scum to have a person who isn't a PR.

But I need to look over who's the claimed true-VTs in this game. We know this claim's truthful. I'm willing to bet the result is, too. Meaning the result of vanilla is going to be on one of our VT claims. (I know I'm one of 'em, but I also know there's another player who's claimed VT and nothing else; if that was Kdub [I can't recall off the top of my head], then there's that 50% chance that he was investigated.)

Definitely thinking PA's town from this, though.

I targeted the Scar/Muffinman slot.

...Well, then.

SMP, can you claim your flavor name and confirm that your role is specifically called "odd-night role cop and reporter"? And to confirm exactly how your role works, if you were to investigate a PR (of either alignment), you would get their actual role (e.g. "cop", "doctor", "roleblocker", etc.), but if you investigate a VT/goon, you get "vanilla"?

I"ll Nall. My exact role is Odd-Night Rolecop and Reporter. Yes, you're correct. A PR would return the role name while a VT/goon would only return that they're Vanilla.

I'm not entirely sure what happened last night. All I know is that I got a vanilla result on Muffinman.

I agree, my play yesterday was sub optimal and didn't help town. I tried something different with a PR and it failed miserably.

Eh, screw it, might as well throw it out; it's not like he's in any danger of being lynched anyway.

Vote: kdub

.

[mastin2]

Oh. There's also more VT claims than I remember. (Four total, I think.) So only a 1/4 chance for any of 'em being cleared. (But he did claim it was on me, so there's that in my defense I guess.)

[mastin2]

Mara says Bro always thinks she's scum and so does AJ.

(Both slots I'm definitely saying town on.)

(AJ, Jake, and Aegor)

There is a minor question of, "is there a bus", but I lean no.

And seriously, HKC interactions with Jake, not scum-scum. Difference between sewing chaos and confusion and what they did, pretty dang clear. Soyeah, PA's town.

I don't think Aegor and Jake are scum together, though

Same here; it looks like setting up a townflip of one and then pushing for a lynch on town of the other.

Ehhh, i havnt really touched Kdub, though I guess I can see where you're coming from re him

Looks important.

Well, I guess it's more, I feel like someone between the Jake/aj is scum but not together and, if I am wrong on one of the reads, id much rather it be Jake because I don't know how ti work with town him while I have some idea as to how to work with aj

'Specially given this.

But then the go on a whole tirade of cyclical reads. Voting Kdub, unvoting him, saying not to lynch Aegor saying to lynch Aegor saying not to lynch AJ and then to lynch him. :/

They did go heavily about trying to save SMP, though, so there's that; wagons they'd push over SMP would therefore be more likely to be on town. Which casts doubt on the whole Kdub-is-scum thing. But that said,

Dude, we have 5 hours, join one of the counter wagons, don't make any new ones

Given the hypocrisy in this (checked and kdub had only one vote), I can still see it as being distancing-for-towncred. (Also checking there, there's actually no SMP wagon at the time.)

Votecount 1.24 (Final)

[7] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, Mac, Jake From State Farm, sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff)

[4] Kdub (Antihero, ???, ActionDan, HighShroomish)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)
[1] Not Voting (PhDScar)

But I did read some context to get to here. When push came to shove, there were only two viable wagons. Kdub's, and the Shroom wagon.

/not hammering

I might, though after SG answers me

The former half gives pause to Mac.
The latter half overrides that and makes me think Mac's town a bit more.

Add HKC on to that list of people I would lynch today, that was really bad.

(Checking out context, not exactly this, but sorta along those lines, in that HKC was setting things up so that a hammer could happen at any time, it looks like.)

And the posts there also make Squirrel Girl look ridiculously town, btw. Unvoting and voting HKC there. (Mac also did.) I might check out the rest of the context 'round there later (seems an important phase of the game), but for the time being, finishing the HKC iso seems most important.

*continues*
...Well, that was fast.

Butyeah. What I gather from an HKC iso,
PA (Jake) is definitely town, with AJ/Squirrel Girl very strongly town, too. BROseidon is also very strongly reasonably town. And though uncertain, I THINK that Mac is town here, too. Which really leaves Aegor/kdub, in which I lean Kdub.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 4.2

[2] Aegor (Mac, Squirrel Girl)
[1] Kdub (mastin2)
[1] mastin2 (penguin_alien)

[3] Not Voting (Aegor, BROseidon, Kdub)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-06-11 08:00:00)

[borkjerfkin]

Squirrel Girl was prodded.

[mastin2]

I would be willing to lynch HKC if no other option is available.

I see no reason whatsoever to let Mac live. I do not believe his claim, and he has stated explicitly that he will not confirm it either.

This actually does look town, though.

The Mac wagon having disintegrated is a bit of a cause for concern, but overall, I am thinking town there.

Votecount 3.14

[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)
[3] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, Jake From State Farm)

But this gives serious pause. :/

UNVOTE:
VOTE: HKC

Yet Aegor delivered the hammer. Kdub's vote was just a "shot in the dark"--the type of vote easily removed. Aegor's was a hammer vote, which if he was scum would leave him alone.

I suppose Mac being scum is possible, but I'm still really thinking kdub at this point.

It's not clear-cut. Just little things here and there. That do vaguely point that direction.

[mastin2]

scumread on kdub is back with a vengeance

(Antihero's last non-Mac scumread was back there, so there's also that.)

Basically, if I were sheeping the names of trusted town players, I'd be voting Mac, but since I'm following my own self right now and I feel like we're in game-winning mode, I'm voting for kdub. I think this plan even works if you suspect me to be the last scum and lynch me first. But I need to run the exact setup math to figure it out for surez. Basically, I THINK we've got it won, 'specially if you sheep me, but I'm not absolutely sure about that.