Open 144 - Near-Vanilla - GAME OVER!

[AndyTony]

to NOT NK*

[saberwolf]

How do you know 100% they will not NK, saber?

because they would be stupid if they did.

If I was scum, Nking so that its you the JK and a doc left or you a JK and a cleared left is suicide. Only way to win using Kdubs plan is to not NK so that its a coin flip between you and doc and you both claim doc.

[AndyTony]

What I'm saying is that if scum maintains a no NK, it simply draws out the time before a lylo (which can happen)
=======

If you just help me see where it can't go wrong, I'd understand it better

[Kdub]

saber, it is NOT a coinflip. If there is no kill tonight, there are 5 left tomorrow with ONE scum among them and 3 of them confirmed town. That means we choose between two players who can be scum, but we have two lynches to use. How is that not a guaranteed town win?

[saberwolf]

What I'm saying is that if scum maintains a no NK, it simply draws out the time before a lylo (which can happen)
=======

If you just help me see where it can't go wrong, I'd understand it better

not with my plan. With my plan we have no uncertainty. The only way scum can win at this point is by CC doc. If we have doc claim now, that chance of winning is gone, and we pick our way through the VTs.

Say AT claims doc. We lynch Kdub today then [just to please AT], and wait for night to end. Ald would JK CM and AT would protect ald. Either AT or I would die, or else no NK would occur, either by scum trying to gamble or CM being the scum. Either way we know not to target CM. We lynch MCD next, and if someone had died the night before he would be scum and we win, or if someone didnt die he'd either turn up scum or VT. If he turns up VT, we KNOW CM is scum, and Ald JKs him for one last night, and then we lynch him for a AT/ald/SW win for town.

[Kdub]

saber:
The scenario you just outlined is exactly what I had originally proposed. I think we are in agreement here.

Unvote

to prevent any mishaps before Al and MC have had a chance to weigh in. Once we have a claim and Al is clear on what to do, I will put my vote back on myself.

[Chinaman]

if scum decide to NK, then I would be cleared AT

I'll vote Kdub after we get a Doc claim. I'm beginning to think it isn't you though

Unvote

following in Kdub's footsteps

[saberwolf]

I think AT is a bit bothered, because for once we have logic he can't fight back against with pure ignorance

[Chinaman]

this makes me laugh. really. with all the logic involved and the sure win, AT is fighting claiming doc and fighting the sure win for town. I wont be surprised when MCD claims doc now or if both claim. Either way, scum is screwed. We could also do this scenario with my death over Kdub's. I'm not a fan of that since it's Kdub's idea and there is no way of knowing he will flip town, but it's the same view point from Kdub's side plus, if Kdub was scum, I don't think he would be fighting this hard for it and if he's scum he would be blocked instead of me. So yeah, if you feel more comfortable with my lynch and then JK'ing Kdub, it'd be the same outcome.

[Kise]

[Kdub]

Chinaman:
Yeah, I said before that there are multiple variations of the plan, but let's stick with what I originally said to keep things simple. MC/AT claims, lynch me today, Al blocks you tonight.

I'm starting to think we've caught AT as the last scum, but let's stick with the plan just to be completely sure.

AT never answered me on this, but the question applies to everyone just so we know this is going to work: Can anyone describe a specific scenario in which this would not guarantee a town win?

[Chinaman]

No, I can not think of one.

DAY 5

Today we lynch you. Leaves us with:

AT
MCD
Me
Ald
SW

--At night let's say AT claims and dies

That means I'm clear and MCD is scum

--Let's say AT clams and SW dies

Same thing.
(Switch AT and MCD around depending on who claims)

--Let's say nobody dies and then we are left with:

AT
MCD
Me
Ald
SW
--------------------------
DAY 6

I was blocked so town lynches me. NK doc and we are left with:

MCD or AT
Ald
SW

Ald and SW win for town.

I was blocked so town lynches me. NK SW (confirmed town) and we are left with:
MCD
Ald
AT

Ald and doc win for town.

There is no lose for town. So let's do it. Of course, we could just lynch AT today and win I think, but better to not leave it to chance and leave it to numbers.

[Chinaman]

But it all hinges on Doc claiming. Not voting till he does that.

[Alduskkel]

Unvote

.

The plan is a sure-fire win for the Town. Doctor, claim.

[MadCrawdad]

I can't see a reason that the plan won't result in a town town win. I'll wait for a second opinion from Ald before claiming.

[Alduskkel]

MCD, claim then.

[MadCrawdad]

I am indeed the doctor.

Protected:

N1 - The Replacement (d3x)
N2 - Kdub
N3/N4 - Ald

If anyone else claims doc today, feel free to lynch me first...

vote: Kdub

[Alduskkel]

*shrug* I think lynching AndyTony is the quickest way to end the game, but it doesn't matter in the long run.

Vote: Kdub

.

[Alduskkel]

Unvote

. We actually need to wait for AndyTony to see if he counterclaims. Then we're good to go.

[Kdub]

I think we should give AT a chance to counterclaim first. If he does not, then we can proceed with my lynch.

[Crazy]

Vote Count:

Alduskkel (0)

AndyTony (0)

Chinaman (0)

Kdub (1)

- MadCrawdad

MadCrawdad (0)

saberwolf (0)

Not voting (5)

- Alduskkel, AndyTony, Chinaman, Kdub, saberwolf

With 6 alive, 4 votes will achieve a lynch.

Deadline for Day 5 is

November 1st

.

[Alduskkel]

By the way, I targeted AndyTony on Night 3. So I guess Kise made the kill. (Given AndyTony's reactions to the plan vs. everyone else's reaction I'd say AT is our last scumbag.)

[saberwolf]

I really hope he is. My gut's been saying it this whole time and I've really been gunning for him real hard too

[Alduskkel]

Wait, we can actually just proceed without hearing from AndyTony if we lynch him. If he flips Doctor, we lynch MCD and win. If he flips Scum we win. If he flips Vanilla then I target Chinaman, and whoever is scum between Kdub and Chinaman can't/won't make a kill (If Kdub killed then it would expose him as scum, since Chinaman can't make a kill), so we'll be left with 5 alive:
Kdub
CM
Me
MCD
SW
We lynch CM, then Kdub (order doesn't matter though) for the win.

Vote: AndyTony

.

[Crazy]

Vote Count:

Alduskkel (0)

AndyTony (1)

- Alduskkel

Chinaman (0)

Kdub (1)

- MadCrawdad

MadCrawdad (0)

saberwolf (0)

Not voting (4)

- AndyTony, Chinaman, Kdub, saberwolf

With 6 alive, 4 votes will achieve a lynch.

Deadline for Day 5 is

November 1st

.