Mini 1517 - Game Over - The Sun Sets on Duskville

[Micc]

Well, whiffing on Mhork's meta doesn't really change anything for me. Still not sure if hes town or scum.

I am on the other hand conf biasing myself into liking my Guyett vote. More on that in a sec.

[Micc]

Also, in a game with Daytalk when his story changes halfway through to a role that *isn't* particularly verifiable and yet is just useful enough to make people want to keep him around...?

Woah woah woah woah woah. Who said anything about this game having Daytalk? Because it's not mentioned in the rules.

Unvote; Vote Espeonage.

Won't be able to post for the rest of the day due to family business.

Another issue I have with that slot is these last two posts in Day 1 from Haschel Cedricson. Points Thor's scumslip, but doesn't change his vote. 120 posts later the Thor scumslip wagon has died down and HC comes into cast a vote and declare he is afk until lynch deadline. Seems like fairly typical play for someone who was part of Thor's scum team. It bothers me that HC pointed out the slip, but never acted on it. Either he didn't believe it was an actual slip or he didn't want to believe his scumpartner has screwed up.

I have issues with other slots too, but this seems like a good place to start. Certainly better than posting about nothing.
I still want Mindgamer in here asap, not that I expect him to be helpful...

My opinions on this have not changed.

HC/Guyett Vote Tracker

HC in Day 1 -

Espeonage

> Unvote >

Abbott

>

Espeonage

>

ABR

>

Espeonage

>

ABR

>

Espeonage

Guyett in Day 2 -

Elyse

> Mindgamer >

Bastion

>

ABR

Guyett in Day 3 -

Thor

Guyett in Day 4 -

Bastion

Guyett in Day 5 - Mhork > Guyett > Unvote > Mhork

That's not really telling at all. Im sure everyone here has a lot of green in the first two days.

If I am understanding things right, people are giving Guyett a decent amount of town credit for the hammer on Thor. I'm not really sure its warranted if you go back and look at Guyett's posts Day 2 and early Day 3.

Spoiler: Guyett town reading Thor prior to quickhammer

I read the first 10 pages or so of D2... like the look of Thor, not sure about ABR yet and Elyse looks scummy as fuck (page 53 especially)

VOTE: Elyse

more content tomorrow

Thor is so very town.
Not sure about Micc but I noticed someone did some wagon analysis and Micc was very liberal with his votes

Why is Thor being run up?
Also surely if people are concerned with the swing from SB then lynching SB would be best?!?

I owe you fuck all without a case.
I was town reading thor yesterday and will continue to do so.

Wtf is thor doing at l-1? Has anyone even built a case or is this just a lol wagon

I don't care if you agree with Thor case or not, Guyett.

I disagreed with the ABR case. I thought SB was a much better lynch. You thought otherwise, and I gave you a chance.

ABR flipped town.

You owe me a vote.

Forgot you were the one who hammered....

I'm not comfortable just throwing you a vote.... especially not less than 24 hours into the day.

Tell me in 2 sentences why thor is scum

Fuck it

VOTE: thor

Informative lynch

Guyett comes into the game Town reading Thor stronger than any other player. Softly defends him multiple times. Criticizes people for having him at L-1 and basically no case at all, then turns around and loldrunkhammers him on the spot. The hammer had absolutely no build up, which is weird coming from either alignment. Everything before the hammer, on the other hand, looks like scum defending scum.

I had a town read on HC up until he replaced out, but there are others who did not. ABR and Abbott come to mind. Neither did much of anything to describe their case, but the fact that both are dead right now is a bit of a sign. Abbott in particular got nightkilled with is second to last post before flaking being shown below. I can't help but think that maybe they were right? Looking back on HC I can't remember what I thought was town about him, besides maybe having the same shitty reads as I did at the time.

I don't see scum replacing out in his position, personally.

Hello HC replacement. Ready to die today?

[Micc]

Guyett/HC slot, probably not lynching either. HC was fairly town when he was around; his early aggression was pretty good and

Guyett's shining moment was the very strong push on the ABR lynch to later Thor quickhammer while hammered.

Post-celebration seemed real, drunk hammer seemed fine,

and throwing up weak wrists to Thor lynch --> quickhammered when it's pretty highly likely he's going to be lynched instead of bringing the "okay, you were right" at the beginning of the day seems pretty strange.

It's possible he thought they would be able to cash in on the Sir Bastion mislynch before Thor died, but if he was willing to go that deep for Thor, there's no reason not to let him claim and attempt to shut down the wagon a bit.

Nacho, I don't understand what you are trying to say with the bolded stuff.

Guyett's shining moment is a strong push on a town flipped player?

I want to understand where you are coming from, so please explain further.

[Guyett]

I can't and won't comment on HC's play as I haven't read it.
I did town read Thor as it looked like town Thor when I replaced in.
However I have already pointed out that the Encryptor is likely the only PR in the game if the game is set for Normalcy and Balance. Why would scum me lol hammer the only scum PR... especially the one who enables scum day talk?!?
Also why would I kill people who find my slot suspicious?!?

You must think I'm the worst scum player ever!!!

[Lord Mhork]

You really think that Encryptor is the only scum role? That shit wouldn't be balanced in the slightest. ESPECIALLY if you believe Nacho's claim. Scum would at least need a roleblocker or Rolecop or something. Encryptors aren't that powerful

Guyette, why are you so flaily now?

[Micc]

Spoiler: Posts 692 to 701

Vote Count 1.27

Amished (5) - Thor665, Sir Bastion, AbboTT, Micc, Elyse
Elyse (2) - Espeonage, Albert B. Rampage
NicCage (2) - Lord Mhork, jmo16mla
AbboTT (1) - FakeGod
FakeGod (1) - NicCage
Espeonage (1) - Haschel Cedricson
Thor665 (1) - Amished

Not Voting (0)

With 13 alive it is 7 to lynch. Deadline is on December 3rd at 8 p.m. PST.

Countdown:
(expired on 2013-12-03 20:00:00)

Espeonage is V/LA until Sunday night.

Ugh. I have zero support.

Fine. I'll compromise.

Vote: Amished

That's L-1

Y'all do know that Amished is gonna flip town, right?

Why are you so sure of that, Mhork?

(working on catching up, I might just try to get the most recent 10 pages done so I have the most up to date info for deadline).

Is elyse scum?

From your phrasing, without context I would say no. It sounds like you're scum and you're trying to soft push me into an opinion rather than town asking if your opinion is right. However: With Elyse's post

So what's stopping us from lynching you for not providing content and skating by?

here, that's an easy lynch target that's not necessarily scummy. By 28 pages there should be more to a lynch in town's eyes than not providing content. I tend to agree with you (SirB) but I want more information on the goings on of this game (I'm early in the readthrough, page 8).

My main concern is keeping up with deadline information so it's slower going than I would expect of myself.

Finally, I see that I'm at L-1 due to BB. Would you like a claim?

Also:

Unvote

I'm back tada, battered and bruised, but ready to get back into it.

@ Above: Go for it, claim. Happy to let the day end. But much more happy to give time to turn around.

Read through, well skimmed, but I think I read everything that's happened so far while I was away.

Don't really have too much to say. @SB's Question to me from when I went V/LA, yeah the case was alright, not a great lynch for today, but I think it's definitely valid.

@SB
Why did you ask Amished if I was scum?

What the hell? Amished is gonna flip town. Vote for Elyse.

Unvote: Amished
Vote: ABR

Let's please do this.

I completely forgot Blueberry/Amished/Mindgamer slot was at L-1 to be honest. This points to Mindgamer scum pretty strongly.

Thor starts wagon on useless scum partner Blueberry.
Amished replaces Blueberry.
Eventually gets run up to L-1.
Thor sees his new scum buddy about to be lynched and immediately gets off the wagon.

The L-1 vote comes about 5 hours after these two post from Thor...

I'm telling elyse and everyone voting him. It smells of scum driven wagon because if his inactivity. Yes he's been rather useless, but maybe he

is

that busy.

Then who do you think we should lynch? Because I'm pretty much 100% certain that your current vote isn't on scum.

@ABR - why the soft selling of your read here? Last game you were spouting off like crazy about what you believed and this game you're running *waaaay* under the radar for a while. You're seriously making me think that BB is town and you're scum quite happy with the way things are going. Whassup over there?

And it occurs to me his 'tomorrow' is basically a '24 hours prior to deadline' which...is not thrilling.

First the set up to make his jump off the Blueberry wagon (that he started but so desperatly needed to get off of) seem more believable. Then he complains about how close the deadline is. Which is really funny considering 6 hours after Fakegod places the L-1 vote (on a wagon Thor started!) Thor gets off by voting for ABR. Thor doesn't get off of a town wagon like that. Im pretty sure its Mindgamer/Guyett, but that might be a good bit of conf bias setting in. I still want to think on it.

[Guyett]

You really think that Encryptor is the only scum role? That shit wouldn't be balanced in the slightest. ESPECIALLY if you believe Nacho's claim. Scum would at least need a roleblocker or Rolecop or something. Encryptors aren't that powerful

Guyette, why are you so flaily now?

I just finished a game and had it reviewed beforehand... the setup is similar

Desperado = weak cop (both die if target the wrong alignment making it swingy)
Jailkeeper = bulletproof (both similar)
1X BP = 1X BP

vs encryptor

Daytalk is extraordinarily powerful and anymore scum PR's would make it unbalanced

[Micc]

I can't and won't comment on HC's play as I haven't read it.
I did town read Thor as it looked like town Thor when I replaced in.
However I have already pointed out that the Encryptor is likely the only PR in the game if the game is set for Normalcy and Balance. Why would scum me lol hammer the only scum PR... especially the one who enables scum day talk?!?
Also why would I kill people who find my slot suspicious?!?

You must think I'm the worst scum player ever!!!

I'm not going to comment on setup spec. I don't have nearly enough experience to know what is balanced and what isn't.

Guyett, As for why you would hammer Thor...Thor has the kind of presence that makes people wonder why hes still alive come Day 2, Day 3 when there are other nightkills being made. I think its safe to say that Thor has to be bussed at somepoint no matter what scum team he is on. Bastions dying words are decent evidence of this. At some point he had to go, so why not try and get major town points for it.

And last time I checked, night kill strategy includes killing players who suspect you, and players who are universally town read. Abbott suspected HC, and was universally town read. So I don't think what I said is too much of a stretch.

[Guyett]

You really think that Encryptor is the only scum role? That shit wouldn't be balanced in the slightest. ESPECIALLY if you believe Nacho's claim. Scum would at least need a roleblocker or Rolecop or something. Encryptors aren't that powerful

Guyette, why are you so flaily now?

I just finished a game and had it reviewed beforehand... the setup is similar

Desperado = weak cop (both die if target the wrong alignment making it swingy)
Jailkeeper = bulletproof (both similar)
1X BP = 1X BP

vs encryptor

Daytalk is extraordinarily powerful and anymore scum PR's would make it unbalanced

Also rereading my setup review the reviewers even commented that that setup was ever so slightly scumsided

[Guyett]

Micc reread Mhork and come up with a post similar to the one on me and mindgamer pls

[Guyett]

because I think you're town, I think you're right on gamer. You admit that you may have conf bias.. I'm not going to be able to convince you of my innocence tbh but I can get you to look at other people to build a good read on

[Micc]

Micc reread Mhork and come up with a post similar to the one on me and mindgamer pls

Ill do this at some point later today. Trying to be as open minded as possible. I haven't gone as in depth on Mhork's early game as I have for Guyett and Mindgamer.

[Lord Mhork]

Bah. I just disagree in general on that idea of balance. Some reviewers have different ideas of balance. Here there would be a lot if ways to stop kills. I would let scum have a counter. But that's neither here nor there.

Can you explain your mindgamer scum read, guy?

[Guyett]

Mainly PoE at this stage but also as I doubt the SB wagon was all town and he's really the only possible scum on there.

That being said my ability to read people and my PoE reasoning has been shot to shit v.recently :/

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count 5.04

Lord Mhork (2) - Guyett, FakeGod
Mindgamer (1) - Lord Mhork
Guyett (1) - Micc

Not Voting (2) - Mindgamer, Nachomamma8

6 alive, 4 to lynch.

The deadline is on January 29th, 10:00 a.m., PST.

Countdown:
(expired on 2014-01-29 10:00:00)

[Micc]

Alright, this is what I have after a quick skim through Mhork's Iso:

Early Day 1 is a combination of tunneling Abbott and apologizing for being lurky. Late Day 1 he jumps around a lot with his vote. Mostly sheeping, and hardly any real analysis. The only real big stand I see him taking is defending the Mindgamer slot. This points to the possibility of a Mhork/Mindgamer scum team.

Spoiler: Mhork defending Mindgamer slot

Also I'm really not liking BB for scum. He gives lynchbait gutvibes

Ugh. >.<
I do NOT want a BB lynch. Any chance I can rally some last minute support for NicCage lynch?

This is pathetic. Can we please lynch NicScum. He's infinitely more likely that BB

Y'all do know that Amished is gonna flip town, right?

Fucking hell. Jmo, you're a fucking idiot

This was following the jmo fakehammer on Espeonage. I pulled it out because I actually thought it was genuine at the time, and I kinda still do.

1v1ing is stupid. Also I just remembered last night that scum slips aren't a thing. We need weak doc to target Thor though.

VOTE: ABr

Convenient transition off of the Thor scumslip wagon. Once he sees that Thor isn't going to be lynched he gets off as quickly as possible.

You better have a god damned good reason for those lynch pools, FakeGod.

Nacho, I disagree that someone can be 'too batshit' to be scum. That's still a fallacy.

Guyett we are not lynching Mindgamer. That's stupid. We don't have any time. Get on a real wagon.

I will oppose any new wagons that form out of the principle that random deadline wagons never, ever hit scum.

More evidence of Mhork defending the Mindgamer slot. Last time I saw a post like this it was scum-Nacho

telling

coaching scum-Metaphe to get off of my wagon. Nacho might remember that one. So it might be scum-Mhork coaching scum-Guyett too.

Rereading the debacle with Elyse/Elleheathen mix up makes me want to bang my head against the wall. I have no idea how it could be alignment indicative, other than the fact that Mhork was able to coast through Day two without really doing anything.

Mhork Vote Tracker

Day 1 -

Espeonage

>

Abbott

>

Espeonage

>

Illume/NicCage

>

Elyse

>

ABR

>

Thor

>

ABR

>

Espeonage

Day 2 -

ABR

Day 3 - No Vote
Day 4 - No Vote
Day 5 - Mindgamer

Not much there really. If Mhork is scum with Mindgamer, choosing to bus seems like a weird strategy for Day 5. Coming out and strongly targeting me or even Guyett for a mislynch would seem to make more sense. On the other hand Mhork doesn't make much of a case against Mindgamer, so the trajectory to that vote seems pretty unclear. Especially considering Mhork spend a decent amount of time defending the slot throughout the game with the reasoning that "BB/Amished/Mindgamer" is lynch bait.

I need to get some food. Guyett, this post was for you. Talk to me.

[Guyett]

Mhork could be distancing from his scum buddy gamer in case either gets lynched all the while FoSing me incase I get enough votes to move onto... its not a new strategy for scum at all. Like you say he hasn't really made a case.. just come out and vote a slot in MYLO that he had been supportive of all day... not very logical tbh.

[Micc]

I'm looking at Day 5 and it seems that the two players least willing to look back on the game and try to figure it out are Mhork and Mindgamer. That shows complacency, but not really alignment. At this point Mhork should be in here at least trying to defend himself or find the remaining scum, certainly not be complacent. If you believe that he has gone all apathetic and doesn't really care, then I guess that's a valid excuse, maybe but not really.

[FakeGod]

Not really seeing a Guyett_scum.

When I was entertaining Nacho-NK-gambit theory at the start of d5, Guyett pushed me off of it.

He has absolutely no reason to, unless it's Guyett-Nacho scum team, which I think is unlikely.

[FakeGod]

However, if Mhork is town, then Guyett must be scum.

[Micc]

Spoiler: Thor's reads on Mhork

I actually ended up missing Page 13+14.
Then I read them and realized I hadn't missed much

I sort of want to write off both Mhork and AbboTT as pure town v. town

because both of them care so much about being right. I didn't read any of their stuff but will go ahead and declare that I feel AbboTT won simply because he looked townish prior to this. In any case those are pointless attacks and too complicated to be doing anything with at this stage - both of you should find another target and talk about the issues with each other a bit later and in more digestible bites.

@Mhork - to answer your question about ABR...well, I suspect you should probably just do a bit of meta research for yourself. With a player who has been around as long as he has let me just go out on a limb and say 'yes, he has done that multiple times as town...and also probably multiple times as scum' It's a side effect of being in so many games you start playing triple blind fake outs with your meta and having to debate how complicated of a read you want to apply on someone.

If you want to lynch him because you think he is scum, sweet, call me up I'll still be game for the wagon. But don't make the case around 'he posted an awkward sounding opener, does he do that as town?' because...seriously?



Now we can both potentially look forward to Day 3 when I fakeclaim SK to get someone lynched, and we'll have this conversation again.

Lord Mhork vs. Abbott looks like town vs. town.

Agreed.

I would like to hear Thor's case on Jmo as well.

My case is this;
There was scum on the Espeo wagon.

I think Micc, Mhork, and AbboTT are town.

Therefore I want to lynch one of the others.

I've since then shifted Herschel to the more town side

, so pretty much I'd like to lynch either jmo or Elyse.

My Micc townread - gone.

Really? So, basically he disagrees with some of your reads and suddenly he isn't town anymore. I feel like you're using your reads like threats, not like reads.

I'm choosing to further townread Mhork for having the chutzpah to question this wagon.

Let's lynch jmo. Let's lynch Elyse. Or at least let's have someone come out and justify a town read on either or both, that would be awesome.

Presuming I'm right about the above. I'm conflicted about what that does to Nacho. It makes Elyse

town though. Mhork also, not that that's a big shift for me.

FG also ends up looking pretty solid town.
I'd probably advocate looking at Mindgamer next, maaaaybe Nacho, I dunno. I hate the slot, I hate what Nacho is doing, but I'm debating if ABR would sheep/buddy like that. I could see it either way.

I'd probably say Mindgamer for obvious reasons, Micc as the soft distance buddy, and then Nacho/AbboTT? as the random odd potential if I'm otherwise wrong.

Spoiler: Thor's reads on Guyett/HC slot

@Thor
I disagree with both your AbboTT and Illume reads. I don't have really strong reads either way, but AbboTT is definitely leaning scum and Illume is null-town. I don't really get what you see there.

Espeo is pinging me, as is AboTT. Micc and Haschel are my strongest townreads.

AbboTT scum doesn't make much sense to me at this stage, the case on him is a joke, read the intent of his posts. I personally feel like you are giving Illume the null town simply because she lightly defended you - can you specify what she has done that looks townish?

Espeo I have no read on yet, I can accept that he's pinging you, he hasn't done it to me yet. I agree with a town vibe from Micc.

I think Hasch...eh...probably a slight town lean

just because he feels a little bull-in-China-shop. I'm not really willing to endorse that one at this stage though.

Anyhoo, even if you do have some bullSmurf definition of OMGUS that nobody else uses, that doesn't change the fact that AbboTT attacked one player for doing something for which he had already let another player off the hook.

I actually disagree that this went down like you want me to believe it did. Even if it did, then he probably ignored two people, because you should count yourself too - but I don't think that's valid either.

To everyone making comments about how I'm not "driving" like you would normally expect me to be.
Take a look at the wagons at the moment.
Figure out which is, by far, leading.
Then ask yourself which one I started - and if you don't think I started it tell me who did.
Then kindly facepalm yourselves for me.

I would like to move Haschel to a town read now.

I still don't really see what everyone else is with regards to Sir Bastion, unless the theory is he sucks at looking town when playing scum. I like the Fake God wagon better than the Espeo wagon.

@Lord Mhork
@Haschel

Where do you see that wagon going anytime soon? What are ou doing to help advance it? Would you be interested in helping place Illume back to L-1?

jmo16mla, Haschel Cedricson, Elyse

I'm willing to help lynch any of the above.

Vote: jmp16mla

Would you lynch HC please?

Would you lynch jmo?

I kinda support both, but at least think

Haschal had a period he looked town

during, I can't really say the same for jmo.

Spoiler: Thor's reads on BB/Amished/Mindgamer

Thor what is your read on Espeonage

Town side of null, not a super strong read...but I guess I'd be hard pressed to name stronger town reads I have, so feel free to call it strong at this stage if you wish.

Unvote: Elyse
Vote: Blueberry

Speed wagon, hoooo!

@Micc - also, for the record, your case on Espeo looks like Mhork's case on AbboTT, so...y'know...yeah.

All four of you should just be voting Blueberry with me.

This looks like Lord M and Abbott agreed to attack each other during pregame to put up a show for the town, and tried to push through a mislynch when they saw that the time was ripe.

You think that snarl fest looked staged? I really, really, don't.

I'm liking the way Sir Bastion is approaching this latest part of the day.

ABR is still twinging me, but the fact that he's defending Espeo like he is furthers my lack of desire for an Espeo lynch. Either ABR is town, and sees what I see, or he's scum and wants in on the anti-wagon cred, but either way that's a solid reason not to lynch Espeo.

And caught up.

I'm fine with Blueberry lynch.

I would be happy with an Elyse lynch as well.
I'm...sorta against lynching Fakegod, not because I like his slot, but because I don't like who is voting him.
I'd still also be down with lynching Illume.

People should give up the Espeo wagon o' derp and let's lynch someone else.

Thor had Mhork as town for pretty much the entire game.
He had HC as town at first before soft pushing for his lynch Day 2. Not much on Guyett.
He pushed Blueberry wagon very strongly before mellowing out after replacements. Not much for a read on Mindgamer.

For the most part I wouldn't ever expect Thor to bus his scum partners early in the game. His solid town read on Mhork all game could be a sign that Mhork is scum. Thor's reads on Guyett slot seem to point to Guyett being town. Blueberry was so terribly bad that I don't think Thor bussing him is a huge stretch. It is a bit telling that Thor left the slot alone once BB was replaced.


I am starting to see the Mindgamer/Mhork scumteam more clearly than Guyett/Mhork or Guyett/Mindgamer. I'm not ready to lynch anyone just yet.
UNVOTE:

[Micc]

Not really seeing a Guyett_scum.

When I was entertaining Nacho-NK-gambit theory at the start of d5, Guyett pushed me off of it.

He has absolutely no reason to, unless it's Guyett-Nacho scum team, which I think is unlikely.

Is this the sole basis of your read on Guyett, or is there more?

[Lord Mhork]

Theory: Thor buddied town. What's wrong with that

Theory: I legit thought Thor had mixed up games. I'm not the only one who left the wagon. I certainly have made a point of expressing my dislike of speed wagons anyway.

Theory: scum-guy wanted to get on Nacho's good side via being all 'no that's stupid' at no cost to him.

Theory: guy is actually scum upset that I'm not giving him a case he can try to refute. PoE, bitch.

Anyway just good for thought. I'm not scum. I don't think Micc is scum. I'll buy FG town. That leaves guy/gamer. THIS IS NOBOTHER POSSIBILITY.

[Mindgamer]

Micc is making ok posts but I still don't see any drive behind them. He has three people on his scum radar but pushes none of them and even takes his vote off. I'm not seeing any town behavior in this, just scum that wants to appear good.

Mhork and Guyett are spewing mostly WIFOM at this moment. I especially don't like Mhork's self-meta just after he said he wouldn't make a town case on himself. I'm also overall getting the idea that Mhork has more knowledge than the rest of us. First here's this:

GG scum. You can quick hammer now

Then there's this:

You really think that Encryptor is the only scum role? That shit wouldn't be balanced in the slightest. ESPECIALLY if you believe Nacho's claim. Scum would at least need a roleblocker or Rolecop or something. Encryptors aren't that powerful

I think I want to vote Micc at this point. But his lynch is not going to happen with several people townreading him. So I'll settle for the next best thing:

Vote: Lord Mhork

[Guyett]

That L-1