Provable randomness

[Magua]

Code: Select all

[dice]3d6[/dice]

Original Roll String: 3d6

3 6-Sided Dice: (3, 6, 4) = 13

[Vampirate]

Back in my days if I remember correctly the newbie setup had a 55% Town EV and town won approximately 46% of them (aka town did 9% worse then if they just lynched randomly). The correct town would have been to just have a player go 1dx (where x is the number of players alive in the game) and everyone lynch slot X on the player list.

If dice tags are allowed then they make open setups incredibly dumb if players are truly playing to win (and that isn't even touching on their other uses for roles in games).

Well it boils down to this, your whole dice setup isn't really anti town or anti-scum, it's just really boring.

Like if the whole game was predicted on randomness, if I was mafia........i'd probably might just act the scummiest I could lol.

Why bother acting town, heck why bother posting.

[Magua]

If only there could be some rule that could be made so that the game could still be played as intended!

[Vampirate]

If only there could be some rule that could be made so that the game could still be played as intended!

Anyways, this is all going on the assumption that everyone chose to vote like robots.

The other element in play that hasn't been mentioned though.

If you are a vig, doctor, or detective, how are you supposed to gather information to use at night if there isn't any?

What happens if you are a detective and checked the person who's turn it was to roll the dice and they came up mafia, but they rolled the dice and the dice roll was town. What happens then?

[Magua]

Doesn't really matter if you think it's good or not, does it? It has been pointed out that there are instances when town players quite legitimately felt this was the best way to play. TBM even linked Dollhouse.

[Vampirate]

Quite frankly, I would say the dice is tolerable on Day 1 only as a mod, how people choose to use it or not could open up speculation.

Using it after is just downright lazy and i'd player kill anyone who uses it on Day 2 afterwards. You want to use it on Day 1? Fine, but you'll have to explain to the masses why you did so. And as I pointed out, using it is more anti town than pro town. My opinion anyways.

[Magua]

So....you'd modkill someone for doing something rather than just tell them not to do it?

And if your rule is "This is fine on D1 but not on D2" then I think your rule is not well thought out, tbqh. In the same way that "Here's information X, Y, Z. You can't claim this" is a terrible thing to put into a role PM.

[TheButtonmen]

Back in my days if I remember correctly the newbie setup had a 55% Town EV and town won approximately 46% of them (aka town did 9% worse then if they just lynched randomly). The correct town would have been to just have a player go 1dx (where x is the number of players alive in the game) and everyone lynch slot X on the player list.

If dice tags are allowed then they make open setups incredibly dumb if players are truly playing to win (and that isn't even touching on their other uses for roles in games).

Why bother acting town, heck why bother posting.

Exactly, it ruins the game yet if you're playing to win it's the most optimal strategy for town.

[Vampirate]

If there is a rule regardless on how people perceived it and someone breaks it, that player should be punished. Just make that rule understood very clearly.

I don't see what's wrong with that, a lot of games have strange rules. Also, there a big difference between not being able to roll the dice which is a neutral loss and not being able to claim X, Y, Z which is a rstrictive loss.

Not being able to use the dice on Day 2 afterwards shouldn't have any effect on a persons gameplay, while not being able to claim X, Y, Z is very game restricting and unbalanced.

[vettrock]

Lastly, may I see the actual dice in effect here, i've actually never seen it, how is it done.

Rolling 1 six sided die:

Original Roll String: 1d6 (STATIC)

1 6-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

One 13-sided die:

Original Roll String: 1d13 (STATIC)

1 13-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[Vampirate]

Back in my days if I remember correctly the newbie setup had a 55% Town EV and town won approximately 46% of them (aka town did 9% worse then if they just lynched randomly). The correct town would have been to just have a player go 1dx (where x is the number of players alive in the game) and everyone lynch slot X on the player list.

If dice tags are allowed then they make open setups incredibly dumb if players are truly playing to win (and that isn't even touching on their other uses for roles in games).

Why bother acting town, heck why bother posting.

Exactly, it ruins the game yet if you're playing to win it's the most optimal strategy for town.

I agree it ruins the game if it ran rampant but I disagree on it being optimal strategy.

[TheButtonmen]

You're objectively wrong.

[saulres]

Vampirate, there's an EV for setups where lynches are random, and from my understanding it's created by running a scenario through random votes (and possibly ability usage) a whole bunch'a times, creating a statistical accuracy. And yet town winds up losing more than that EV when they're not playing randomly. Hence Buttonmen's comments.

[Vampirate]

You're objectively wrong.

If all mafia was a lynch phase you'd be correct, but going completely random regardless of anything actually makes power town roles useless.

If you were scum, why would you worry about a detective if the dice determine's the fate of who gets lynched?

If you were scum, why worry about a doctor if the town has no information on who to protect?

If you were scum, why worry if there's a vig if the player never knows who to target due to no information.

If you were scum, why even worry?

If I was scum i'd be laughing knowing I would have the night all to myself.

[TheButtonmen]

My opinion is backed by win rates gathered from across hundreds of games over several queues and EV's gathered from literally tens of thousands of simulations. Your opinion is backed by your gut feeling?

Confirmable randomization is not a good addition to forum mafia, feel free to disagree but at least do some research before making your claims.

[lufan131]

I don't see the problem with randomness. If they choose to play with dice, what does it break?

[Magua]

I don't see the problem with randomness. If they choose to play with dice, what does it break?

Reading the thread, apparently?

---

Vampirate: If you think it's terrible and town should never do it, why do you feel an exception needs to be made to allow it D1?

[Vampirate]

My opinion is backed by win rates gathered from across hundreds of games over several queues and EV's gathered from literally tens of thousands of simulations. Your opinion is backed by your gut feeling?

Confirmable randomization is not a good addition to forum mafia, feel free to disagree but at least do some research before making your claims.

Like I said, if it's only usable on Day 1, then the person who used it has to explain to the masses why they used it. This opens up discussion, is it a scum who's using it as an excuse to not try and not have any blame on him?

I never argued if it's good for the game if people used it on a mass scale. At that point, i'd just quit the game as it'd be boring.

Essentially if everyone uses it all town roles become VTs, PRs become useless. The game is predicted on the damn thing.

Again, i'm not arguing over if it's good for the game as the one decider, i'd only allow it on Day 1, i'm arguing if it's good for town when you take in account town PR roles.

[Magua]

Many times when people are talking about EV, they are talking about mountainous setups that do not include any PRs at all.

[Vampirate]

[quote="In
Vampirate: If you think it's terrible and town should never do it, why do you feel an exception needs to be made to allow it D1?

If everyone used it as a decider on who to vote, the game is stale, it's terrible that way.

The thing about Day 1 is it has RVS, one could argue either way if the one who's using the dice has town intentions or mafia intentions. Thus, it opens up debate which is healthy.

Even if someone convinced everyone to use it on Day 1, is that person scum or town motivated?

[Vampirate]

Many times when people are talking about EV, they are talking about mountainous setups that do not include any PRs at all.

Oh, in that case, I wouldn't even bother to sign up for that kind of shit game.

A mafia without fun PRs on both sides is boring imo.

[TheButtonmen]

Many times when people are talking about EV, they are talking about mountainous setups that do not include any PRs at all.

You can EV setups with PR's.

[Magua]

Many times when people are talking about EV, they are talking about mountainous setups that do not include any PRs at all.

You can EV setups with PR's.

1. "Many times"
2. Not reliably, outside of things like Innocent Children. At best you can approximate things like "Cop claims with guilty or with two innocents," but even that's more complex than EV calculations I've seen.

[Vampirate]

Many times when people are talking about EV, they are talking about mountainous setups that do not include any PRs at all.

You can EV setups with PR's.

What does EV stand for btw, first time i'm hearing that abbreviation.

[Magua]

Expected Value (of a town win). 2:11 mountainous has a 39.5% EV, so if town lynched randomly the entire game it would win 39.5% of games.