A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Feysal]

I have called your case stupid, yes. You're essentially saying that Starbuck got an isolated Aegon goon PM, and decided to get herself chosen so she could shoot someone town? The "woe is me" attitude you refer to is a bit off-base; she never says "I'm a liability, choose me", she says "I'm a VT, choose me". And sure, people have definitely caught scum and page 3. But do they update their case when it is page 102? Usually, yes.

If this is what you think of my case, you got it exactly wrong.

Starbuck started her game by commenting she was surprised by the early choices. I don't think she had any sort of plan involving self sacrifice at this point, and she was surprised by the resulting backlash. She was voted in quick succession by Dredd, Tierce, Staeg and Minimum. In response to this, Starbuck gave the weak excuse that people should treat choices with more care than random votes. This made no sense, as Minimum was quick to point out, and so Starbuck covered her weak excuse with an even weaker excuse, implying she would rather choose town that could be trusted to follow through on the action. This in turn caught my attention. I expect Starbuck thought she could not backtrack from her previous statement, and so she gave yet another excuse, and claimed she had meant choosing vanilla town for the job. Again her response only provoked more questions, as she was asked how she expected to identify vanilla town to choose.

By this point Starbuck had dug herself into a hole. Every time she had tried to explain she had only made her situation worse. I believe this is when she came up with the idea of self sacrifice, and chose herself. I expect she thought it would make her appear town, and it did to many people. And if it did not, at least she could take a strong town read down with her. Later she claimed that by choosing vanilla town she had meant herself to begin with, and that she did it because she knew she was lynch fodder. There you have Starbuck explicitly calling herself a liability. I also believe she was lying when she said she had meant herself all along. Instead I see her slipping worse and worse, until the only thing she could think of doing was choosing herself.

As for not updating my case, exactly what is there to update? As I have pointed out, since day one Starbuck and Scumhunter have done nothing to make me reverse my scum read on them. Mostly because they have done nothing. Sure I could spin a wild tale of them teaming up with Frosty the Snowman to cause a nuclear winter, but that would have no basis on reality. I have not updated my case because nothing has changed. DCLXVI flipped, and I have acknowledged that it makes Starbuck unlikely to be Stannis aligned, while bvoigt flipping Aegon aligned after defending her rules out nothing.

Also, at the time I started to write my last post, there was only one vote on me. I did not see the other two until after posting. Yes, it took me three hours to check on everything I wanted to and write that.

Not sure what Feysal is talking about. Maybe he prods us differently, but when I got prodded it was just a generic prod.

It was only the first time I was prodded for me too. The rest of my prods have been devoid of any flavor.

[Eddard Stark]

The Golden Rose is a dromond being built in King's Landing. It was named by King Tommen I.

Day 4, Votecount 11

4nx3ty (2) - Minimum, Regfan
Pine (1) - 4nxi3ty
BBmolla (1) - Benmage

Scumhunter (5) - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin

Magua (1) - Scumhunter
Feysal (3) - Plums Yo Mamma, BBmolla, Pandora
Mastermind of Sin (2) - Zdenek, Tyene Sand

Not Voting (2):

Shinori, Pine

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline

: 6th October at 19:30am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-06 14:30:47)

Prodding Minimum

[Tierce]

Well just from the amount of death you're putting into the thread now you seem more townie then ever before. Apparently just being touched by Greyjoy makes you awesome? It's been hard to look at your posts and say anything besides 'I agree yo'. Either way you're at least not scum with someone so there's no reason not to take you at face value.

It's embarrassing actually that you're having to put that much effort into arguing that Starhunter isn't scum, this should have been an easy cleared up 3 days ago thing. Starbuck wasn't scum, Scumhunter isn't scum, and the only guy who holds that golden lynch apple to heart is Feysal. Everyone else is just voting with their annoyance. Seriously Feyal is a guy whose singular posts were something I liked to read for intelligent and insightful thoughts into the game and right now he's not just left behind, he's not even trying to change his point of view.

PEdit: That makes sense. Honestly, though, I doubt that will do anything with Feysal. I'd know, I've tried. This is a player who doesn't even defend himself much when being wagoned because he's always so freaking far behind and doesn't choose to ditch the older pages and deal with what's important

right now

--that lead to his lynch, as scum, in Chrono Trigger. (He might have been doomed by PoE anyway, but he was so far behind that by the time he got to posting he was hammered.)

So basically you're saying he's acting like his scum meta? :V

No. I'm saying that, regardless of Feysal's alignment, I don't expect him to vigorously defend himself or realize that games this large are too much for him, drop what he's doing and deal with the current pages instead of being stuck tens of pages behind. It's frustrating, because I really like him as a player.

[Tyene Sand]

Goddammit. I keep forgetting, and this actually gets harder when it's my only alted account active at the moment.

Not quite. It's only at the end of D5.

(This is a reply to Nacho's Post 2557 about being alignment-confirmed tomorrow morning.)

---

Well just from the amount of death you're putting into the thread now you seem more townie then ever before. Apparently just being touched by Greyjoy makes you awesome? It's been hard to look at your posts and say anything besides 'I agree yo'. Either way you're at least not scum with someone so there's no reason not to take you at face value.

It's embarrassing actually that you're having to put that much effort into arguing that Starhunter isn't scum, this should have been an easy cleared up 3 days ago thing. Starbuck wasn't scum, Scumhunter isn't scum, and the only guy who holds that golden lynch apple to heart is Feysal. Everyone else is just voting with their annoyance. Seriously Feyal is a guy whose singular posts were something I liked to read for intelligent and insightful thoughts into the game and right now he's not just left behind, he's not even trying to change his point of view.

PEdit: That makes sense. Honestly, though, I doubt that will do anything with Feysal. I'd know, I've tried. This is a player who doesn't even defend himself much when being wagoned because he's always so freaking far behind and doesn't choose to ditch the older pages and deal with what's important

right now

--that lead to his lynch, as scum, in Chrono Trigger. (He might have been doomed by PoE anyway, but he was so far behind that by the time he got to posting he was hammered.)

So basically you're saying he's acting like his scum meta? :V

No. I'm saying that, regardless of Feysal's alignment, I don't expect him to vigorously defend himself or realize that games this large are too much for him, drop what he's doing and deal with the current pages instead of being stuck tens of pages behind. It's frustrating, because I really like him as a player.

[Shinori]

I'm actually thinking I'd prefer a feysal lynch instead of a scumhunter lynch at the moment. I'm kind of okay with either of them though.

[kortul]

I am seeing posts from the Nacho i remember, which is good. I think he finally realized, that once his alignment will be known he will be either lynched next day (if scum), or killed at night (if town and not protected), so i believe that his attempts at finding scum are genuine now. Another reason i believe so is his explanation on the read change on me - in the game where i was scum he died night 1, so to have a meta on me from that game he had to read it again, and i don't think he would do this if all he wanted today/tomorrow were some mislynches (i am also curious as to what were my scum-tells in Last Will IV, since i wasn't aware that my play as scum and town is different, but that's another question and i will return to it after the game).

Also like the latest posts from 4nx - he is more active now, even though his wagon isn't exactly rolling. On the other hand, Pine and Scumhunter disappeared.

I have a large family gathering this weekend, in village with no internet, and will drive there with my wife on Friday, which means being v/la for 3 days and missing the deadline here. Will decide on my final vote for this day on Friday morning. To get an understanding whom should i reread, i took a look on a list of reads gathered by Zdenek, skimmed through ISO of those missing or listed "clear", and through several last pages of thread to compile a list of players willing to vote for current wagons or having them as town read. There were some null reads so i didn't count them, since if those reads already changed to scum reads, i'd expect at least some comments, or questions/pushing. And i have no idea about Pine and Scumhunter scum/town reads. If i made some errors about someone reads (or there were errors in Zdenek lists) just correct me, but i doubt there would be more than 1-2 errors.

Only

Scumhunter

wagon has 9 players who have at least a weak scum read on him or are willing to lynch him if their main suspect(s) would not get enough votes.

MoS

has 5-7 potential votes (some players weren't clear about their current read on him). Next is

Feysal

, who has 5 potential votes atm. Pine/Jal and 4nx have 4 or less potential votes.

Scumhunter - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin [Shinori, Regfan, 4nx, Zdenek]
Mastermind of Sin - Zdenek, Tyene Sand [Shinori, Regfan, BBmola, Magua(?), Feysal(?)]
Feysal - Plums Yo Mamma, BBmolla, Pandora [Zdenek, Shinori]

At the same time 5 players (Minimum, Tyene, Benmage, Plums Yo Mamma, Pandora) are sure that Scumhunter is town, which means that this slot at least deserves a second look. Tomorrow i will reassess Scumhunter, MoS and Feysal, and read the arguments of those who think they are scum or town. With less than 3 days remaining it is time for those sitting on smaller wagons (or not voting) tol think on their options, reads and possible compromises as well.

PEdit. Updated counts after Shinori post.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

scum don't talk about their buddies like this. This is what they do to tie themselves to somebody else.

And he was not trying to tie himself to Feysal at all. I could see what you mean if he wasn't choosing Feysal for the entire fucking game, but that's not the case so here we are.

don't think scums aim and goal would be to have them crossing and think DCLs 'feysal is scummy but less so because of the multislip and moreso because of other things' isn't what he'd say to have them cross as scum and think he'd have gone for greenknight.

The goal doesn't have to be crossing; the goal should be a little bit of distancing. But when the wagon never died until the choose wagon on DCL that was obviously going to go through, crossing just happened. Think RedCoyote voting Amrun in Chosen Ones; he thought it was a shitty wagon that would die eventually, but when it stayed as big as it was, he never got the opportunity to hop off.

Kind of shocked that you'd say something as stupid as this. Sure, someone fitting as scum with someone else doesn't mean they will always be scum but the fact that they fit with both parties as scum increases the odds they're scum not 'probably doesn't mean they belong to either'. Don't see any way at all you can even consider justifying the 'less likely to be scum' stance at all.

If they fit with both scumteams, then the connections you're looking for are not good enough, and you need to start refining things. If you mean that you don't quite know which scumteam they are on because they have no significant connections, okay, that's fine, but when you have significant interactions on a player being scum from both factions, it doesn't mean they're likelier scum, it just means you're wrong.

I expect Starbuck thought she could not backtrack from her previous statement, and so she gave yet another excuse, and claimed she had meant choosing vanilla town for the job. Again her response only provoked more questions, as she was asked how she expected to identify vanilla town to choose.

Because three players voting you

scum don't talk about their buddies like this. This is what they do to tie themselves to somebody else.

And he was not trying to tie himself to Feysal at all. I could see what you mean if he wasn't choosing Feysal for the entire fucking game, but that's not the case so here we are.

don't think scums aim and goal would be to have them crossing and think DCLs 'feysal is scummy but less so because of the multislip and moreso because of other things' isn't what he'd say to have them cross as scum and think he'd have gone for greenknight.

The goal doesn't have to be crossing; the goal should be a little bit of distancing. But when the wagon never died until the choose wagon on DCL that was obviously going to go through, crossing just happened. Think RedCoyote voting Amrun in Chosen Ones; he thought it was a shitty wagon that would die eventually, but when it stayed as big as it was, he never got the opportunity to hop off.

Kind of shocked that you'd say something as stupid as this. Sure, someone fitting as scum with someone else doesn't mean they will always be scum but the fact that they fit with both parties as scum increases the odds they're scum not 'probably doesn't mean they belong to either'. Don't see any way at all you can even consider justifying the 'less likely to be scum' stance at all.

If they fit with both scumteams, then the connections you're looking for are not good enough, and you need to start refining things. If you mean that you don't quite know which scumteam they are on because they have no significant connections, okay, that's fine, but when you have significant interactions on a player being scum from both factions, it doesn't mean they're likelier scum, it just means you're wrong.

I expect Starbuck thought she could not backtrack from her previous statement, and so she gave yet another excuse, and claimed she had meant choosing vanilla town for the job. Again her response only provoked more questions, as she was asked how she expected to identify vanilla town to choose.

Because three players voting you in a 28 player list is enough to make anyone flip the fuck out.

There you have Starbuck explicitly calling herself a liability. I also believe she was lying when she said she had meant herself all along. Instead I see her slipping worse and worse, until the only thing she could think of doing was choosing herself.

I'm having trouble finding your thought process here, so let's jump in Starbuck's shoes.
She's coming back from a bit of a hiatus, had a game before as town, whatever. She gets three votes, panics hard, says some shit about wanting the choose to be used as a policy lynch (which you found ridiculous, but others have suggested), that didn't work, so she started panicking earlier and chose herself? How did she reach the "oh, I think that VTs should be chosen?" conclusion, and what was she hoping the town would conclude after that? How did she reach the "oh, I should claim laughably early and choose myself?" conclusion? I can see these thought processes as scum, but the scenario you are playing out doesn't make sense except for a particularly gifted scum player that someone panics to shit when three people vote them.

There you have Starbuck explicitly calling herself a liability. I also believe she was lying when she said she had meant herself all along. Instead I see her slipping worse and worse, until the only thing she could think of doing was choosing herself.

So you're saying this is a last result?
Despite the wagon on her hadn't really grown to be that impressive?
So she pulled the trump card really, really, really prematurely?

As for not updating my case, exactly what is there to update?

Would you be peeved if my vote on you was due to the multiball slip?
Yes, you would be. More shit has happened, and still you've been clinging onto a tired old read that has convinced absolutely no one when it was presented, and convincing absolutely no one now. You'd think that with this much trouble pushing a wagon, you'd turn to different avenues, try different reasoning, attack the replacement, but no. You're content pushing something that never worked. This tells me you don't really care a lot about your scumread very much, which would make you scum, now wouldn't it?

[Plums Yo Mamma]

scum don't talk about their buddies like this. This is what they do to tie themselves to somebody else.

And he was not trying to tie himself to Feysal at all. I could see what you mean if he wasn't choosing Feysal for the entire fucking game, but that's not the case so here we are.

don't think scums aim and goal would be to have them crossing and think DCLs 'feysal is scummy but less so because of the multislip and moreso because of other things' isn't what he'd say to have them cross as scum and think he'd have gone for greenknight.

The goal doesn't have to be crossing; the goal should be a little bit of distancing. But when the wagon never died until the choose wagon on DCL that was obviously going to go through, crossing just happened. Think RedCoyote voting Amrun in Chosen Ones; he thought it was a shitty wagon that would die eventually, but when it stayed as big as it was, he never got the opportunity to hop off.

Kind of shocked that you'd say something as stupid as this. Sure, someone fitting as scum with someone else doesn't mean they will always be scum but the fact that they fit with both parties as scum increases the odds they're scum not 'probably doesn't mean they belong to either'. Don't see any way at all you can even consider justifying the 'less likely to be scum' stance at all.

If they fit with both scumteams, then the connections you're looking for are not good enough, and you need to start refining things. If you mean that you don't quite know which scumteam they are on because they have no significant connections, okay, that's fine, but when you have significant interactions on a player being scum from both factions, it doesn't mean they're likelier scum, it just means you're wrong.

I expect Starbuck thought she could not backtrack from her previous statement, and so she gave yet another excuse, and claimed she had meant choosing vanilla town for the job. Again her response only provoked more questions, as she was asked how she expected to identify vanilla town to choose.

Because three players voting you in a 28 player list is enough to make anyone flip the fuck out.

There you have Starbuck explicitly calling herself a liability. I also believe she was lying when she said she had meant herself all along. Instead I see her slipping worse and worse, until the only thing she could think of doing was choosing herself.

I'm having trouble finding your thought process here, so let's jump in Starbuck's shoes.
She's coming back from a bit of a hiatus, had a game before as town, whatever. She gets three votes, panics hard, says some shit about wanting the choose to be used as a policy lynch (which you found ridiculous, but others have suggested), that didn't work, so she started panicking earlier and chose herself? How did she reach the "oh, I think that VTs should be chosen?" conclusion, and what was she hoping the town would conclude after that? How did she reach the "oh, I should claim laughably early and choose myself?" conclusion? I can see these thought processes as scum, but the scenario you are playing out doesn't make sense except for a particularly gifted scum player that someone panics to shit when three people vote them.

There you have Starbuck explicitly calling herself a liability. I also believe she was lying when she said she had meant herself all along. Instead I see her slipping worse and worse, until the only thing she could think of doing was choosing herself.

So you're saying this is a last result?
Despite the wagon on her hadn't really grown to be that impressive?
So she pulled the trump card really, really, really prematurely?

As for not updating my case, exactly what is there to update?

Would you be peeved if my vote on you was due to the multiball slip?
Yes, you would be. More shit has happened, and still you've been clinging onto a tired old read that has convinced absolutely no one when it was presented, and convincing absolutely no one now. You'd think that with this much trouble pushing a wagon, you'd turn to different avenues, try different reasoning, attack the replacement, but no. You're content pushing something that never worked. This tells me you don't really care a lot about your scumread very much, which would make you scum, now wouldn't it?

>.>

[Eddard Stark]

I'll give scumhunter another couple of hours and if not he'll be replaced.

[Minimum]

UNVOTE, VOTE: PINE

Jal was plenty scummy and oh, hey, Pine's barely bothering to play the game, which is also totally a scum tell for him. You can't be opposed to a Pinelynch, people.

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding Pine

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'll go through these games tomorrow and mull this over. Thanks for answering.

FYI, the other game was Judge, Jury, & Executioner, which just ended. I was the first Judge until the mafia finally found me and killed me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

The fact that you haven't stated any read on Jal/Scumhunter/Mocking and a bunch of other people including Benmage at all

Hmm, let's see. I have previously stated I thought Jal was highly likely to be Stannis faction, and that Mocking/4nxiety and Benmage were both highly likely to be Aegon faction.

So either you must be REALLY bad at reading comprehension to not realize that claiming someone is probably part of a scum faction means I have a scumread on them or you're purposefully trying to do everything you can to attack me right now without actually stopping to make sure that your "case" makes any sense.

...and I really don't think you're that stupid to actually think your case makes sense.

Major FoS: Regfan

[Regfan]

The goal doesn't have to be crossing; the goal should be a little bit of distancing. But when the wagon never died until the choose wagon on DCL that was obviously going to go through, crossing just happened. Think RedCoyote voting Amrun in Chosen Ones; he thought it was a shitty wagon that would die eventually, but when it stayed as big as it was, he never got the opportunity to hop off.

Think DCL would have known the wagon wasn't super likely to move from Feysal but I see your point.

Hmm, let's see. I have previously stated I thought Jal was highly likely to be Stannis faction, and that Mocking/4nxiety and Benmage were both highly likely to be Aegon faction. So either you must be REALLY bad at reading comprehension to not realize that claiming someone is probably part of a scum faction means I have a scumread on them or you're purposefully trying to do everything you can to attack me right now without actually stopping to make sure that your "case" makes any sense. ...and I really don't think you're that stupid to actually think your case makes sense.

Major FoS: Regfan

THAT'S EXACTLY IT. You've gone through your analysis and came back stating they're likely X/Y scum but you've never decided 'hmm I should re-read their actual posts and not some stupid points system to get a read on them', you're content basing all your reads of point system which makes no sense at all which is why it's a fake contribution and allows you to just vote high points back to back without justifying with any real reasoning other than 'high points!'

[Zdenek]

Vote: Feysal

[Plums Yo Mamma]

UNVOTE, VOTE: PINE

Jal was plenty scummy and oh, hey, Pine's barely bothering to play the game, which is also totally a scum tell for him. You can't be opposed to a Pinelynch, people.

what's wrong with Feysal, CES?

[Plums Yo Mamma]

The final DCLXVI wagon had 15 votes, 6 of which have flipped town, 2 of which were late scum votes. Additionally, the last 7 votes on DCLXVI are now dead, which leaves the early voters still alive. That means it's likely one or more of Tierce, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Tammy, kortul, and Plums Yo Mamma are scum.

In Post 1010, we have three major wagons on flipped players, 1 town and 2 scum. There's a decent possibility that an Aegon scum is in the group of Regfan, Feysal, Jal, and Shinori that were still keeping the SnowStorm wagon alive as two Aegon wagons were countering it.

Mos I see one pretty good possibility for scum in both of these groups.
And I know you wanna vote them.
But I'm not saying who it is because it's a secret.
(hint: Feysal)

[Mastermind of Sin]

THAT'S EXACTLY IT. You've gone through your analysis and came back stating they're likely X/Y scum but you've never decided 'hmm I should re-read their actual posts and not some stupid points system to get a read on them', you're content basing all your reads of point system which makes no sense at all which is why it's a fake contribution and allows you to just vote high points back to back without justifying with any real reasoning other than 'high points!'

lolololololol

I love how are trying to set up this lose-lose situation for me. If I don't dig further into my scum suspects you'll say "see, I told you he would do that, he's scum!". If I *do* dig further as the game goes on, you'll just say "he's only doing it because I pressured him to do it, he's scum!". Which makes your case completely baseless because you're jumping on me for not doing something I haven't had time to do yet. You started going after me as soon as I posted my analysis, which means that you didn't care to see if I was going to look at my suspects any further, you just cared about trying to paint me as scummy as possible to get your mislynch.

Close, but no cigar buddy.

[Regfan]

"Jumping on something I haven't had time to do yet" is complete bullshit, you haven't shown any intention to look deeper and have posted a lot since your 'analysis' without touching on any of their ISOs and reads from it. You're literally showing no townie mindset at all. And not just that but your reacting in a "Omg point out scum-tells of mine" must be pushing for mslynch which is uberscum defensiveness!!!

If you're going to do the reading into them then god damn do it. Stop creating excuses not to and pretending that your list of 'x' 'y' is anything useful.

[Tyene Sand]

Regfan, why do you think an 4nxi3ty lynch is more likely to happen at this stage than a MoS lynch?

[Regfan]

It probably isn't. But I'm more confident in 4nxietyScum than MoS scum. Especially since from memory MoS didn't fit in one of the factions whereas 4nxiety fit both.

[Regfan]

CES, Pine hasn't been online in 36ish hours + his posts between his 'catching up' here and elsewhere all seem small. So think he's struggling IRL time wise and the meta thing is nullified.

[Mastermind of Sin]

"Jumping on something I haven't had time to do yet" is complete bullshit, you haven't shown any intention to look deeper and have posted a lot since your 'analysis' without touching on any of their ISOs and reads from it. You're literally showing no townie mindset at all. And not just that but your reacting in a "Omg point out scum-tells of mine" must be pushing for mslynch which is uberscum defensiveness!!!

If you're going to do the reading into them then god damn do it. Stop creating excuses not to and pretending that your list of 'x' 'y' is anything useful.

No. You can go fuck yourself. I'll read into them when I fucking feel like it. Eat a cock, bitchfaggot.

[Tyene Sand]

@mods, please replace Scumhunter.

[Regfan]

Yes, how dare I ask you to produce content.

(Really hoping you are actually scum this game otherwise my respect for you just dipped substantially.)