Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[BBmolla]

We should lynch Fitz.

[Psyche]

Okay, three things.

First off, your reasoning is hilariously limited in its effectiveness, here. To say I am confirmed mafia now because of your WIFOMy speculation is incorrect, at best.

Second, DK was consistently Town this game. He had no reason to get nervous. If you think the goons' kills were motivated by which players gave them the most trouble, then it'd be a more sound hypothesis to think a more controversial goon would perform a kill aimed to protect himself.

Third, lynch is not a-go. My case posting is not finished, no one has intelligently considered what is already here, and you are only making yourself more obviously nervous scum.

[Psyche]

We should lynch Fitz.

I really don't think so. About every other player but you and me is scummier than Fitz.

[drmyshotgun]

Fitz and Psyche both consider each other as NOT-lynch-target-of-the-day.

Their alliance sounds plausible.

[Psyche]

Are you an idiot?

[drmyshotgun]

You have him as Town.
Fitz hesitated with DeityKabuto scenario. Something which can work on anyone on this game.

[Psyche]

You have 14 pages of bona fide content and that is all you can do?! Point to some vague mirage of an association tell? Where were you when Trevor and Kcdaspot were failing at distancing?

[BBmolla]

We should lynch Fitz.

I really don't think so. About every other player but you and me is scummier than Fitz.

...I disagree

[Psyche]

We should lynch Fitz.

I really don't think so. About every other player but you and me is scummier than Fitz.

...I disagree

Okay. I'm getting to that. But why do you think so? And what do you think about my Trevor case?

[Psyche]

Oh, and why do you think Whiskers is still alive D3?

[drmyshotgun]

Well duh. We know Kcda is scum.
I'll die tonight-- that's pretty much given afaict. I'm either strong town or strong scum everypony thinks is town, so there's no reason NOT to kill me.
Do be sure to ride Kcda's ass until he hangs, won't you?

Also,

But what if he's a mason.

:/

You were on this lynch, BBMolla. I also have reason to believe you are scum. This question is not useful, and you don't believe it. Why do you bring up the idea, even, that he could be a mason? If you think he could be a mason, why would you vote for him? Because you like lynching masons, that's why. Who else likes to lynch masons?

Mafia.

This prediction (that he will die Night 1) didn't come true.
If he is indeed a strong Town, Both scum groups must have thought that the other team will take him out. Hmm.
If he is Scum, more likely was his survival. One scum group will depend on the other to get him and obviously his own team will stay put.
Its ambiguous that he says that he has reasons to believe BBMolla is scum. But later in the same paragraph, doesn't use the word Scum, but uses: MAFIA.

I'm betting rasp wasn't scum and I shouldn't have hammered. But there's

no

motive, town or scum, for his actions.
And because usually, scum want to live, it's unlikely scum would take the actions he did, right?

This prediction DID come true. Rasp was not scum.
If Whiskers is scum he took a fairly safe bet on this case.

Two Masons
Two Mafia
Two Werewolves
One Vanilla Townie.

What do you guys think of Mass-claiming?

After the Night was over and Chrimi and Lucky had fallen, Whiskers does not mention anyone but suggests a Mass-claim.
Is the calculation above calculated to be wrong in order to draw out some information for himself?

Come on guys, where did all the activities go??
Kcda is obvious scum.

Right, but do we want to go to night so soon?
We ought to be able to catch another scum today. For instance,

Is he fishing for another scum in Kcda's team? Guess so.
Yeah, mighty useful that would be.
Whiskers purposely got the calculation of body count wrong and had yet further out-stretching calculations for later on.
He tried to dig out another Werewolf in the list of survivors to get him during the Night!

My my, I suddenly have Whiskers as Mafia.

[drmyshotgun]

Oh by the way, he called out Kassadin to be bussing his partner.
And lo behold, death comes to Kassadin on that Night.

In seeing how mod posts deaths, I figured out that he uses the word: "Framed" to indicate Werewolf Kill.
And he uses the word: "Bought off" to indicate Mafia Kill.

We know this from the death of Chrimi (Mason). Chrimi was "Framed"
Kcdaspot had died and he said their team killed Mason Night 1.
This equals? Werewolf "Frames" people.
While Mafia "Buys off" people.
We must apply the rule of consistency here that Mod uses the same word for the group's kills (in normal games, Mafia "shoots", Werewolf "mauls")
But I'm not 100% sure.
Let me ask the Mod.

@Mod: In this game does Werewolf "Frame" people and Mafia "Buys off" people instead of "Maulling" and "Shooting" respectively?

[Psyche]

Ooh. He pre-empts me.

It's certainly framed = werewolf. Kcdaspot's role is Saboteur.

[drmyshotgun]

*nod nod*

[Psyche]

:/

Could I be wrong about shotgun? Eh. I'll present a case all the same.

[drmyshotgun]

I'm havind difficulties in finding exactly what caused Mafia to get Luckyjt during Night 1...
Perhaps they thought Luckyjt was bussing his partner on Day 1 knowing that he's not getting lynched on that day?

Whiskers outted Kcdaspot as scum and most of the Town was for his lynch so they obviously left him alive to be eaten on Day 2...

Meanwhile, BBMolla. Who are Town in your opinion and who are Team Mafia and who's the last standing Werewolf?

[Psyche]

There is no question. It is Trevor.

[drmyshotgun]

The question was directed to BBMolla, you see.
I'm just interested in what the last living Mason thinks.

But yes, unfortunately Psyche's case on Trevor strikes me valid. Well, he is

definitely

not the lynch of the day along with Molla.

[Dazzy]

Apologies if it was unclear, Werewolf kills are indeed posted as "Framed" and Mafia kills as "Bought Off".
Votecount ASAP (though I don't think there are any to count)

[drmyshotgun]

Voila, proof.

[BBmolla]

Before I comment everyone should say who they think their townmate is.

[Psyche]

Besides you.

Fitz or shotgun, probably fitz.

No day ending before I elaborate. (I'm a bit exhausted tonight)

[Whiskers]

@Shotgun:
"Whiskers purposely got the calculation of body count wrong and had yet further out-stretching calculations for later on."
Can you tell me what you mean by saying I "had yet further out-stretching calculations for later on"?

"Oh by the way, he called out Kassadin to be bussing his partner.
And lo behold, death comes to Kassadin on that Night."
Can you tell which post this refers to?
I'm not sure what your point here is. Can you explain it?
Are you trying to say that I killed him because he bussed his partner?

When is deadline?

@Shotgun:
I asked for a massclaim (if it was a good idea) without mentioning anypony because I didn't want to out myself, partly because I wanted to get counterclaims. If there was only One VT, I wanted to know who else was going to try to claim it. In my head, best case scenario had each team of two claiming masons TOGETHER, and then one the players of them gets lynched, and the other is confirmed scum. Or one of the masons gets lynched and the other is conf town, and all the other players are scum.

@Shotgun:
Any particular reason you picked me out to focus on here? Because Psyche has us paired up? Because I look like the easiest lynch?

@Psyche, Fitz is town just by PoE?

[Whiskers]

This prediction (that he will die Night 1) didn't come true.
If he is indeed a strong Town, Both scum groups must have thought that the other team will take him out. Hmm.
If he is Scum, more likely was his survival. One scum group will depend on the other to get him and obviously his own team will stay put.

Now, wait. You're suggesting:
If I am not mafia, Mafia is saying, "I'm sure werewolves will get her" and
If I am not werewolf, the Werewolves are saying. "I'm sure mafia will get her" correct?
Why is it more likely (out of context) for one of these to be true, rather than both of them to be true? this is like, 1/3 chance for anyof these, right? There isn't a fourth option where I'm both mafia

and

werewolf.
This doesn't prove anything.

Its ambiguous that he says that he has reasons to believe BBMolla is scum. But later in the same paragraph, doesn't use the word Scum, but uses: MAFIA.

Canonically, Mafia likes to lynch masons. Most games with Masons don't have Werewolves-- Werewolves and Masons aren't diametrically opposed the way Mafia and Masons are, at least in my head.
But I'll let you have it. I used a specific word when I could have used a less-specific one.
+1

I'm betting rasp wasn't scum and I shouldn't have hammered. But there's

no

motive, town or scum, for his actions.
And because usually, scum want to live, it's unlikely scum would take the actions he did, right?

This prediction DID come true. Rasp was not scum.
If Whiskers is scum he took a fairly safe bet on this case.

Again, was it less safe if I am town? No matter what alignment I am, I automatically Do Not Know who the members of at least one of the scumteams are. If I am mafia, then I don't know who the werewolves are.
And this "bet" really doesn't affect anything, does it? I wouldn't even have to be playing the game to say, "I bet X."
Idk, I just don't know what you're getting at here. What is this point? That as Town, I wouldn't have made a risky, consequence-less bet?

Two Masons
Two Mafia
Two Werewolves
One Vanilla Townie.

What do you guys think of Mass-claiming?

After the Night was over and Chrimi and Lucky had fallen, Whiskers does not mention anyone but suggests a Mass-claim.
Is the calculation above calculated to be wrong in order to draw out some information for himself?

Wasn't intentionally wrong. The thing was proposed in order to draw out information for myself, though. That's how the game works.
As I said in my previous post, I wanted VT claims, so I knew who to lynch, or Mason claims, so the game became formulaic and easy. Anyway, I didn't ask for a massclaim-- I would have just started it. I asked if everypony thought it was a good idea.
In some games, there is a large group that says, "yes, massclaim" and a small group that says, "no, no, for the love of god, don't massclaim."

Come on guys, where did all the activities go??
Kcda is obvious scum.

Right, but do we want to go to night so soon?
We ought to be able to catch another scum today. For instance,

Is he fishing for another scum in Kcda's team? Guess so.
Yeah, mighty useful that would be.

What? Yes, finding Both of the scum on this team WOULD have been useful.
Um, duh?
Actually, I would have been happy finding a member of the other team, too. Seems like there ought to be some discussion during days, even if we know who the lynch is-- each day brings new information, and I think it's a really, really bad idea to lynch without chatter.

Whiskers purposely got the calculation of body count wrong and had yet further out-stretching calculations for later on.

Yeah, because there's

totally

some benefit for me looking like an idiot who can't count.

He tried to dig out another Werewolf in the list of survivors to get him during the Night!

Oh no! Whiskers tried to find scum!
But let me be serious and pick this apart for a minute.
>I tried to dig out another Werewolf. -- this is a good thing, right?
>A werewolf in the list of survivors -- what?
>The list of survivors to get me during the night! -- Aaaah! The Survivors! They're going to get me!
I really, really don't know what this is supposed to mean or why it makes me mafia.

My my, I suddenly have Whiskers as Mafia.

Cool beans! Could you explain why, please?

[havingfitz]

Follow on from my post 289 thoughts.

Unless people think Kcda was throwing his partner under the bus with his pre-lynch comments I can not see Trevor or Whiskers being a wolf. Kcda also called out BBMolla and he appears to be a confirmed Mason.

So IMO Whiskers and Trevor are only candidates for Mafia. I do not think DK/Psyche is the remaining wolf because of their ~absence during last night's activities. So to recap...(and once again I include myself for completeness)

Likely pool of mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, DK/Psyche, Shotgun, Me

Likely pool of wolves: Shotgun, Me.

Confirmed town: BBMolla. (BTW BB...wth with the lynch Fitz post? Where is that coming from?)

FMPOV that points to Shotgun as the last wolf. Shotgun...are you the last wolf?

As we should not be targetting the wolf today we should be avoiding Shotgun (and me...primarily because I am town but unbiasedly becuase I'm still a wolf option).

So IMO the only options for a lynch today are Trevor, Whiskers, and Psyche. I was leaning town on Trevor and Whiskers before the last three flips occurred so my preference today would be Psyche...but her posting is much better than DK's (aside from the fact her read on me is correct) so I need to look all three of them over again. I meant to have looked Trevor and Whisker's over again by now but RL and gameload has interrupted. I'll try to get the three of them sorted out in my mind in the next day or so.

tl:dr:

Shotgun is likely the wolf and we should be targetting one of these three players as mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, Psyche