Mini 1438: Gonzo Mafia (Scum Win)

[Majiffy]

Not Voting: I Am Innocent, SE-Asians, Remembrance, pirate mollie, buldermar

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is on Sunday, June 16th at 8:00 PM EST.

[Remembrance]

Whelp, I was so sure it was Jon that the cognitive Dissonance is hurting me right now. I'll get over it. Bitter because I read the whole thread over during down time and came to the conclusion that Jon was going to be here today, and was scum, I had a case running through my head too. But he is not here. And now, I must rethink everything.

Except Mollie.

That slot is town. she would never go for Jon town as scum because Mollie is the obvious kill if Jon died. Plus the meta thing. Plus she hammered Kuror0 like it wasn't a big deal. there was zero hesitation.
I'm town, been saying that all game and it has not gotten any less true, nor will it.

What do you guys have? Who do you think the last scum is?

Right now, I'm trying to figure out, Se-Asians, IaI, and Buldermar. The scum is in there. To win, we only need to figure out which of them is town today. The problem being, Is that I was pretty convinced yesterday that they were all town. That is literally it. All we need to do today is figure out which one of these slots is town. Scum would be better. Is there a way we can break this open?

Going to read again and see what I can find.

[Remembrance]

Need something definite.

@Buldermar, can you tell me about those town slips you found on Se-Asians. Quote, reasoning, everything?
IaI made a pretty good case for town you.

[Remembrance]

In Kuror0's last wifom post we see him moving Se-Asians down. He choose him in particular, but kept everyone else where they were in his other scum read progression. I don't know what that means at all. Or if it even has a meaning.

[Remembrance]

Urgh. I hate Kuror0's Iso. It's so wifomy.

[Remembrance]

This is ridiculous.

I don't see scum in anyone's iso. Someone talk to me. I already pmed Majiffy to ask if he was trolling. He said he wasn't.

[SE-Asians]

In Kuror0's last wifom post we see him moving Se-Asians down. He choose him in particular, but kept everyone else where they were in his other scum read progression. I don't know what that means at all. Or if it even has a meaning.

It has a meaning. It is what you did. Questioning why he putted me in there.

I don't think he chose me in particular. I was defending IaI first, so the only make sense in as IaI's partner is me.

Someone talk to me. I already pmed Majiffy to ask if he was trolling. He said he wasn't.

I think Jon get killed is not weird. If Jon is survive and Jon didn't investigate me, probably we lynched him, but we have confirmed town and I can protect him last night, and Mollie still town as fuck, not going to lynched at all.

But, because I don't get killed last night, it's mean the scum afraid with the investigate.

Vote : Buldermar

Let's have 1 v 1.

[buldermar]

My last exam starts tomorrow. It's a one week exam, which means I probably wont be online much until a few days prior to deadline.

[buldermar]

@Buldermar, can you tell me about those town slips you found on Se-Asians. Quote, reasoning, everything?

Yes, I need to do this anyway. I really don't want to do it right now, though - I've been studying all day and would rather relax with a movie. I know it's there somewhere. I recall that it's related to the fact that the slot is a hydra, but I don't recall exactly what it is. I'll get around to it.

[buldermar]

This is ridiculous.

I don't see scum in anyone's iso. Someone talk to me. I already pmed Majiffy to ask if he was trolling. He said he wasn't.

I want to think that you're town, but with the rubi-slot flipping town I'm not as certain. I also want to hear more about IAI's case on you now since kuro flipped scum and since I think it makes it less likely for IAI to be scum (although I'll have to look into this as well). I'm still absolutely certain that mollie is town.

[buldermar]

But, because I don't get killed last night, it's mean the scum afraid with the investigate.

Vote : Buldermar

Let's have 1 v 1.

What is this even supposed to mean?

[Remembrance]

kk, Buldermar. I'm going to take a break today.

I'm absolutely sick of reading this thread. So, I need to muster some courage to delve into it again.

[I Am Innocent]

vote Remembrance

I will present the updated case shortly, but here are my thoughts:

1) Mollie is my top town read too. If she is scum, this game is lost as it seems nobody will ever vote for her, so I think we need to assume she is indeed town.
2) If we mislynch today, D6 is either MyLo (if SE Asians is a doc AND he correctly protects the right person) or LyLo (if no interference on the NK)
3) Because of #2, I think it is more important to have Mollie alive D6 than try to get to MyLo over LyLo, so I suggest we have SE Asians announce in thread D5 that he is going to protect her N5. That way if he is scum, Mollie has to still be alive D6 or we auto-lynch him, and if he is not scum, she will be alive D6 as he will protect her and that increases our chances to win the game based on #1.

Jon being a cop and not being the lynch D4 was huge. I have inside knowledge that two of the three main wagons D4 were on town, so I suggest each of you reread D4 with the mindsets, 1) what if IAI is scum (easy, then he is the last one) & 2) what if IAI is town, who is the last scum.

[I Am Innocent]

Of the 5 living players, 3 were on the Fate wagon. I was not, nor was Mollie.

Of the 3 on the wagon, one jumped off at a critical moment that killed the wagon, with the poor reasoning that "My feet are getting cold."

Bulder and SE Asians holding tight are + points for them.

At kuror0, what do you think about the following unvote that basically killed the Fate wagon D1? Still scream town real hard for you? If not, did you miss this unvote D1 when developing your Remembrance D2 read?

^ L-2

My feet are getting cold.

UNVOTE: Remembrance

L-3.

If you survive to day 2, what will you do?

SE-Asians (L-4): I Am Innocent, Human Destroyer, kuror0
Wisdom (L-4): Fate, Nachomamma8, pirate mollie
Fate (L-2): Remembrance, SE-Asians, Wisdom, borkjerfkin, buldermar
Human Destroyer (L-6): mantisdreamz

Not Voting: RachMarie

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is April 13th at 9:30 PM EST

[I Am Innocent]

Then there was this string.

Scum Kuror picked his targets, and then stuck with them despite 3 suggestions against that. I still maintain that he wanted to keep his teammate on his list and away from mine. There is only one player left alive from his final list, the "something about him screams town real hard to me" Remembrance.

Not the kind of the person I'd include on a list...

Here is a little tidbit from end of D2 that has got me concerned (chronologically):

Yeah I can see things haven't got that far.

Anyways this is some stuff that is on the top on my head:

-IaI first post of the day was really towny but his D1 play was awful imo. So I still maintain a little the scum read on him.
-I have Mantis as scum.
-I already said this but Nacho's plan proposal and discussion is totally a null tell. That aside I do have him as town.
-I hate that Remember sometimes contradicts himself or do weird stuff. Yet something about him screams town real hard to me.

I will aim one of those 4 for my night investigation(tonight).

/off to sleep.

Interesting, because I am a N2 cop too (3 of them???)

As for investigating me, that would kill 2 birds with 1 stone N2 as it would allow 2 investigations to be gone if there is no N2 doc and juror is legit by targeting me for the kill.

Lets finish the claims tho, and then my suggestion would be for mollie to split the list of remaining players excl fate evenly between the cops so no duplicate investigation could happen. Each cop then chooses someone from his list to investigate.

Sound good?

Buldermar, you a N2 cop? SE Asians, are you a N2 cop?

Based on hints these 2 both made earlier, I'm guessing no, so Mollie, get that list ready. I'll even get it started for you...

IAI pool: Kuror, ? ? ? ?

Kuror pool: IAI ? ? ? ?

don't investigate each other and don't do the pool ****

nah, the pool crap is good. as long as pirate does a good job putting some scummy players tied to fate in each pool, we avoid accidently investigating the same player. I want a confirmed player D3!

don't investigate each other
otherwise, we can have a... INVESTIGATIONS DRAFT

1. Nachomamma8
2. Remembrance
3. mantisdreamz
4. buldermar
5. Rubicon
6. pirate mollie
9. SE-Asians (Lincolm + SorasAdvent + thenewearth Hydra)
11. Human Destroyer

(or you could just investigate one of the first 4, kuror0 one of the second 4)

Pff I did my pool before it was an idea. Leaving IaI aside I will either investigate Nacho, Mantis or Remem. So IaI can choose freely among the other players.

I think SE are not a N2 cop so the only one missing to claim is HD.

[I Am Innocent]

The way Remembrance came in early D3 with a "why did Nacho die, hmmm, I'll do an analysis to figure out why" post. And who got painted the nicest in this picture....Kuror and Remembrance.

2740 also has some good information. Who was the first person to do an iso analysis of Nacho? Remembrance...

What were the results of this D2 iso in Remembrance's words:

"He suspected me then sort of changed his mind, telling Kuror0 he thought all four of the people in his pool were town." (remembrance looks good in the end)

"I think ending the day suspecting, Rubicon, HD, and Bulder at death. But his larger pool was me, Rubi, HD, Kuror0 and Bulder." (interesting who is on the 2nd list but not the first)

"He had a special town read on Kuror0, but then suspected Kuror0 was a scum team with Rubicon. And also felt he lurked this day (Kuror0 can, and probably should explain why)." (interesting this this was the only bullet where he asked a living player to explain why....how would a living player know what Nacho was thinking.....or maybe this was just to give a teammate time to minimize suspicion on himself: he "can....explain why", how the heck do you know he can explain why???)

All other bullets were on just the other players.

[I Am Innocent]

Terrible reason for voting me. Giving himself an out when I would have flipped town by saying it was so "we can have a very calm, very well reasoned and non-tunneling mylo"...

Not once there did he accuse me of being scum.

VOTE: IaI

The business end: If Jon is town, and he dies you'll vote me(This is assuming you are town) and lose. Since you have now declared you will be doing this, I can't let that happen. Change your position if you're town. I've read all of what you have said. Now go back and Iso me and iso the many people who have flipped town that have argued that I am town. Or you can die and we can have a very calm, very well reasoned and non-tunneling mylo, if you're town.

[I Am Innocent]

D4 starts by me saying if Kuror flips scum, the cop should investigate Remembrance.

Remembrance has a fit with the conclusion that jon should investigate who he feels is scum.

Like let me go further on this reasoning IaI.

Let's start with a proposition where you're town, I'm town and Jon's town, If you tell Jon to investigate me and he is town and you're town they are going to kill Jon or I because he would confirm me as town and erase your suspicion of my slot if you're town.

Scenario 1: I get nked: they would use my death to create more suspicions on his slot leading him to get lynched tomorrow. The reason being is that just because he announces he will investigate me is not a guarantee he will. If he investigates someone else and finds them to be scum, they risk losing since the rest of the town would be motivated to go back through their whole iso to confirm the veracity of this fact. Which is why I don't want to lynch that probable scum slot. He could very well investigate anyone else, so if he is town he will die tonight.

Scenario 2 (More likely if he's town): Jon get's nked. Or, Jon dies and your conf. bias kill me assuming I am scum that nked him and the scum team hammer for the win.

This second all town scenario, is generally, why I am willing to kill you today if I have to, because even if you're not scum you're going to lose this game which I have tried very hard to win. Because you're simply a liability if you're town. I can't trust you to pick right in Lylo. It's painfully obvious you're tunneling and ignoring the huge amount of arguments made to the contrary if you're town. Even this argument you're going to ignore, I've dealt with this too much.

Second set of propositions: I'm town, you're town and he's scum (he's probably scum) then he would either claim a guilty on me so that you would vote and they would hammer for the win using your conf. bias as a spring board. Or they would nk me. There's not really any advantage to confirming me as town when you're reading me as scum if you're town.

Now, why is Jon voting with you, IaI. For one, the last thing he should want is to end this day early given that he is going to die tonight if he is town. This uncharacteristic willingness to lynch Kuror0 right away is not in the town's or his best interests if he wants to contribute to the town he should think about it.

Pedit: I don't think it matters who you want to investigate if you're town Jon. Just investigate who you think is scum. I know I'm not and I also know that there is enough evidence to come to this conclusion in my iso. It's a waste to investigate me for that reason. Personally, I am almost completely sure you are scum because Rubicon lied to my face (metaphorically speaking).

Yet here he contradicts his earlier view by suggesting who should be investigated:

Also, I'd like IaI or Se-asians to be investigated Jon.
if only because this is Kuror's death post.
Good luck with your semester Kuror0.

Lastly, his votes D4 were Jon, me, Jon, me, and then Kuror. Looks like scum trying everything until a bus felt in order.

[I Am Innocent]

Here are the top suspect list, I believe in the order they were submitted:

kuror - Rubicon & Mantis
bulder - Rubicon & Kuror
HD - SE Asians & Remembrance
Remembrance - Rubicon & HD
Rubicon - Bulder & HD & Mantis
Mantis - HD & Kuror & Rubicon
Mollie - Rubicon & Kuror
IAI - Kuror & Remembrance
SE Asians - IAI & HD

The 3 people that suspected HD prior to my reveal were Remembrance, Rubicon, and Mantis

I am willing to bet at least 1 scum in here.

One (at least) of Rubicon and Remembrance are scum.

And this too...

Remembrance had HD in his top 2 prior to my investigation reveal, the last living player to do so. As someone who debated hard night 2 on who was the better investigation target (HD or rubicon), I know how easy HD would have been as mislynch material, so I strongly believe at least 1 of the 2 scum had him on his list (and now we know one, kuror, did not)

[Remembrance]

Oh goodie, this is going to be a frustrating day already, I can feel it ^_^) Well, I knew this was coming at least it isn't happening in mylo where we would have lost.

1. I asked Kuror0 to explain why he was lurking. Lurking might have real life circumstances behind it. Nacho felt he was lurking, I felt Kuror0 should explain why he became more inactive with time.
2. I unvoted Fate because I doubted myself, a constant trend throughout this and every other day. I have voted, and unvoted almost every player, but Mollie.
3 I admitted that I voted you primarily because of: post 3496
4. I would not have a 'fit' about being the target of investigation if I knew Jon was going to die. Town do not want cops to waste the investigation. Also, I explained already that I look at things from both angles. I looked at it from the perspective that you might be town. I felt that even if you were town, you were a liability in a mylo or lylo situation which ties into #3.
5. I did not paint myself in the best light possible, I was using a temporal narrative, I also asked if anyone had any problems with the summary of his actions you had problems, you just used it to accuse me without asking for clarification first. I thought about NK analysis again this is no different from my day 2 play, where I came up with a case on Nacho and Rubicon. To say that Rubicon/Jon wasn't acting scummy and did not lie to us for his reasons for replacing out is ignoring the evidence. Even you said you were okay with voting Jon if we moved back to him. And presumably it's because you agreed with us. Or, else you're guilty of not caring who got lynched as long as it wasn't you.
6. A last thing is your pool of investigations having his partner in it, this is a supposition that has no basis on anything but the idea that Kuror0 would want to protect his partner from being investigated. Nacho, correctly asserted that all of the people in that unit were town, a fact that only I now know. A point here is that he was safe from being investigated, so let's assume for a moment that you had a 1/3? chance of investigating scum. HD, Buldermar, and Se-asians. There were two people off of the list of investigations, Mollie and you. We have to ignore Mollie for a moment here, because we're SOL if she is indeed scum. But that leaves you. A thing opposite and contradicting this assessment is your huge ATE, and constant "Why would I do this as scum" arguments.
7. You're ignoring evidence that contradicts your case. Particularly that I had no need to bus Kuror0. Buldermar was locked and we had only a few hour until deadline. The fact I would choose to bus my partner over my previously (and correct) accusation that you would vote me seems to be sub-optimal scum play. Not to mention this would be my 3rd scum game I've ever played, I wish I was this talented at it. ^_^) But I'm not yet, I have almost no practice. I replaced into one scum game where I was scum for only, I believe 2 days. And the other I got recruited as a cult recruit and the game's players were inactive.

Can you please make a case for why I am town? I want to see it. Use alternative methodologies because I want to see if you're looking for these posts as well.

[Remembrance]

*might've.

[Remembrance]

I already explained the list thing. In post 3033 I knew very well what you were driving at.

[Remembrance]

Anyway, we wouldn't be in this situation right now if I were scum.

Ultimately, if I were scum partners with Kuror0, I would have gotten you lynched. Kept Jon alive. He would have investigated Kuror0. Then they would have a shit fight in mylo which I don't know the results of. Thankfully, I decided to trust your ATE and here we are ^_^)/ Hi there.

Note too, the basic rule of bussing if that you need to guarantee yourself at least two mislynches for every one bus. Do you see that potential here for scum me? I don't. Please reassess you've played Mafia for 2 years. You should know what town looks like by now.

[pirate mollie]

I hate this game lol.

IaI if you are scum I am going to stalk you to the ends of the earth. I will haunt you from game to game, making you feel guilty at every turn.

do not mistake my reasons for doing this. it will be out of love and admiration.

I don't think the doc should auto-protect me. I think the SE should do what he thinks is right.

I am to do a rethink and a reread

[buldermar]

1) Mollie is my top town read too. If she is scum, this game is lost as it seems nobody will ever vote for her, so I think we need to assume she is indeed town.
2) If we mislynch today, D6 is either MyLo (if SE Asians is a doc AND he correctly protects the right person) or LyLo (if no interference on the NK)
3) Because of #2, I think it is more important to have Mollie alive D6 than try to get to MyLo over LyLo, so I suggest we have SE Asians announce in thread D5 that he is going to protect her N5. That way if he is scum, Mollie has to still be alive D6 or we auto-lynch him, and if he is not scum, she will be alive D6 as he will protect her and that increases our chances to win the game based on #1.

I do like your plan, but I think it's better to have him protect a random target. Only by protecting a random target will there be a chance of no NK happening

unless

scum nk's Asians specifically, in which case scum will still be more restrained than in the scenario in which Asians is protecting mollie specifically and scum can nk any other player than mollie, including Asians. If Asians is scum then you're right that we benefit from forcing him to leave mollie alive, but he's only restrained if he specifically wanted to nk mollie - in all other cases it doesn't matter.

Am I missing something?

- b