Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

yeah 3970 is fair, that makes sense

[Tejate Raichu]

Honestly, thinking about it, it may have been better if nQ flipped town funnily enough. town!nQ flip + town!fua check = scumteam 100% confirmed.

[fua]

Honestly, thinking about it, it may have been better if nQ flipped town funnily enough. town!nQ flip + town!fua check = scumteam 100% confirmed.

Except Ceph dies at night if that happens.

[fua]

Actually, he might not? But it would be better for GL to sacrifice himself than to let that happen.

[Shirou]

Honestly, thinking about it, it may have been better if nQ flipped town funnily enough. town!nQ flip + town!fua check = scumteam 100% confirmed.

kkkk

I knew this had to be an impossible combination of events unless Enchant was scum, so that's why I wanted a fua check only if NQ flipped town.

I knew Ceph had to get a guilty on fua in that scenario. But that's also why I didn't want Ceph checking fua if NQ flipped scum, Fua/NQ just wasn't likely. If Fua was scum, I knew it had to be with GL.

But hm, I'm the impatient kind and I don't think I'm gonna wait weeks to vote here. I've mulled over this and I think Ceph being scum may make more sense than GL.

p-edit: Yeah, GL sacrificing himself would perhaps be the best play to counter that.

[Shirou]

No, to be more precise.

GL makes more sense as scum by dayplay.

Ceph makes more sense as scum by associatives + night actions.

[Tejate Raichu]

Even if that happened I would 100% vote Shirou over you. Ehh, I guess this is sort of verging onto post-game discussion.

I think, today, I'd like us to case GL and Ceph. If we can just figure out who between them is most likely town, then the game is already over. I agree with GL's assessment that D1/D2 play is probably key to figuring this out.

[Shirou]

/shrug

I'm okay with betting this game is town!GL and scum!Ceph right now

If I'm wrong I guess we lose tomorrow but I won't blame myself too badly because I said, multiple times, that in a scum flip on NQ it was better to check me, or at least GL.

VOTE: Ceph

Also If anyone thinks this is too fast for me to have made a decision, you're wrong and if you're annoying enough about it I can link you the game where in the last day I just almost insta-voted even when I was town (and it's not actual last day here at the moment). You should have noticed by now that I hate waiting when I already have made my decision.

[Tejate Raichu]

The first thing that really sticks out to me is GL's early suspicion of redtea in addition to their near constantly having similar opinions to mine. I suppose pushing a wagon on your partner day 1 isn't exactly unheard of, but in a setup like this? Then again, the wagon did fizzle out about mid day even though it definitely had potential. That could be by intention. There was morph's suspicion of distancing yesterday, hmm...

[Shirou]

If we lose this game now I expect so much salt in postgame

By the way if Ceph flips town this game is likely over just saying

[Tejate Raichu]

The way the game is going, if Ceph flipped town I would definitely want to just get you. Then again it's also me or fua being the kill tonight so, maybe I won't end up choosing at all.

[GuiltyLion]

GL makes more sense as scum by dayplay.

can you explain what you mean by this? I was gunning for redtea all game and was on nQ on D1 and only let him coast for the cop claim until yesterday. I didn't bite at Meg or Tejate miselims throughout the game, miselims that

you

were pushing mind you

I do believe good scum play is effectively dis-associating with your partners, so I can't intellectually honestly defend myself on the basis of "not looking like scum with flipped scum" (in fact I usually find myself arguing that if I look like scum with flipped scum then I'm not scum lol), but I'd like a refresher on what you think is scummy about my day play compared to Ceph

[Tejate Raichu]

If scum had pushed my mis-elim to go through, the game might already be over by now. So I think that is actually a pretty strong argument for town!GL. I usually don't say that kind of thing but... bussing in this setup is insanely risky. scum!GL should really not have been fine with pushing the wagon onto a partner.

Honestly, I think maybe the true play here is to get Shirou today just so we can avoid some wine tomorrow. Then we turbolim whoever we didn't decide looked townie tomorrow.

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

[fua]

Ehhhh…

I agree with Shirou here.

VOTE: Ceph

[fua]

If scum had pushed my mis-elim to go through, the game might already be over by now. So I think that is actually a pretty strong argument for town!GL. I usually don't say that kind of thing but... bussing in this setup is insanely risky. scum!GL should really not have been fine with pushing the wagon onto a partner.

Honestly, I think maybe the true play here is to get Shirou today just so we can avoid some wine tomorrow. Then we turbolim whoever we didn't decide looked townie tomorrow.

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

Ceph vs. GL would be wine too though…?

[Tejate Raichu]

If scum had pushed my mis-elim to go through, the game might already be over by now. So I think that is actually a pretty strong argument for town!GL. I usually don't say that kind of thing but... bussing in this setup is insanely risky. scum!GL should really not have been fine with pushing the wagon onto a partner.

Honestly, I think maybe the true play here is to get Shirou today just so we can avoid some wine tomorrow. Then we turbolim whoever we didn't decide looked townie tomorrow.

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

Ceph vs. GL would be wine too though…?

I suppose, I just really don't want you guys talked out of a Shirou elim at the pivotal moment. Honestly it's kind of impressive that he's still alive.

[Shirou]

I think the last thing I've to say about NQ, is that they didn't seem to be trying to distance themselves from GL as they were dying, which is...weird.

They weren't voting me or GL, even though it was the perfect time to try to distance yourself from your partners.

But...they tried really hard to get me eliminated on D3 before I could get my cop shot out...

Coincidence? I don't think so.

p-edit: wait a min GL, I'm gonna eat something and then come back to reply why I think your dayplay is scummier than Ceph depending on how you look at it, but I also think Ceph has been scummy here on dayplay.

[GuiltyLion]

GL, what do you make of morph's suspicion of you given that they are posthumously conftown?

I think from a gamestate view it made sense, we had similar townreads and then both claimed docs, and we've historically clashed as town together before. I was more bothered by the fact that I didn't feel I had a good grip on their solve as for who my potential partner would be, nor did I ever really understand why they thought my reaction to fua's fake guilty was scummy - I highlighted this before but especially with hindsight now it should have been more apparent (from their point of view) that nQ knew it was an impossible and therefore fake result, whereas I initially thought it was a plausible guilty

[GuiltyLion]

To me, your stance on numbers looks like you're setting up to pivot on him after my flip.

this though, you're not wrong! because if you are town then I think that makes numberQ likely scum, and so if you flip town then yeah, I would pivot to him.

lol Tejate this kinda sums it up

[Tejate Raichu]

I see.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm never voting fua either, so good luck with that

Ceph can you also reference when your fua read evolved from this and why?

[Tejate Raichu]

I feel like GL, your play has been very consistent this game. But... I also feel like the scum partner is most likely someone who was set up to deepwolf. I don't feel like day 1 went down the way it did without being the case. And I know I said bussing in this setup is risky, but it's also possible that maybe you didn't realize. Or maybe you liked the challenge, who can say.

And I don't think Ceph could ever really be a deepwolf. He had a fake cop check him... when he was in no real danger of getting voted? Where is the logic in that from scumteam SvS check? Ceph didn't do much with his psuedo-conftown status. From my perspective, this game at least, he's not really in a position where that plan makes much sense.

I still kind of thing Shirou just flips scum but man... this wine is delicious. The iocane powder really brings out the flavor.

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like GL, your play has been very consistent this game. But... I also feel like the scum partner is most likely someone who was set up to deepwolf. I don't feel like day 1 went down the way it did without being the case. And I know I said bussing in this setup is risky, but it's also possible that maybe you didn't realize. Or maybe you liked the challenge, who can say.

And I don't think Ceph could ever really be a deepwolf. He had a fake cop check him... when he was in no real danger of getting voted? Where is the logic in that from scumteam SvS check? Ceph didn't do much with his psuedo-conftown status. From my perspective, this game at least, he's not really in a position where that plan makes much sense.

I still kind of thing Shirou just flips scum but man... this wine is delicious. The iocane powder really brings out the flavor.

it's no worries man I vibe with this being difficult to find town in the three of us, because I am not even sure yet who I'd prefer today between the two of them

if Ceph had just claimed an inno on me I'd prob be mindlessly going for Shirou. I was kinda hoping he'd just guilty Shirou and the game would be over. The biggest thing making me pause here is the fua investigation, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense from town!him and that's why I need him to explain it

I will say though, if Ceph/nQ is the team then I'd wager that D1 was meant entirely to distance between the two of them, and then once it became clear redtea was not going to be long for this world or capable of endgaming, I could imagine nQ claiming that result to give him a reason not to push/vote Ceph anymore, and to make Ceph

feel

town to everybody.

I do want to reread the game on D1 and D2 and gather my opinions, so I'd appreciate nobody hammer or end the day early here before I've come to a real decision and said my piece

[Tejate Raichu]

Maybe it was a pipe dream on my part to hope we'd be able to figure this out before LiLo. Oh well, I'll still try to figure it out before I'm possibly dead. I'd... really rather Ceph/GL be the pool tomorrow. Even if Shirou was town, I don't see a world in which he survives LiLo. Unless something has changed drastically about your guys' reads, I feel like Ceph flipping town is essentially the same thing as believing that GL is town from a mechanical perspective.

VOTE: Shirou

[GuiltyLion]

actually though, for what it's worth in my last game, there was a scum (Ydrasse) who was "pseudoconf" town because she paired with the IC in a dance game (which is always bad/risky for scum because it makes them suspicious when that pair does not get killed), and then she similarly "didn't do much" with her pseudoconftown status. Datisi (my dance partner) said as much in this post and my reply was here.

I feel I could see a similar argument/pattern with Ceph in this game, if you're scum and everyone is assuming you are town, you don't really

need

to do a whole lot and it's better for you to let town implode when you can - you don't put yourself out there in any way and townies all get suspicious/accusatory/angry at each other because they're all trying to solve and mistakenly pointing fingers at each other.