New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Parama]

i kind of feel like scum thought they had a free ride to endgame by pushing me & jester and now it's being met with resistance by the town and everything's falling apart.

tis what I thought too, which is why I initially tried to force Jester-pair into endgame if you were town/town, but keep reading and you'll see where me and Kagami addressed this (and also the part where it's hopefully obvious if there's a scum in their pair it's Dunn, not her).

i saw your conversation on like 178ish or so and while i guess kagami comes off looking a bit better after that i did not get how it was relevant to this point

but i'm pretty tired so i might've just missed it

[Parama]

not particularly inclined to self-hammer since i'd rather get scum today instead of having to go 3 for 3 in lylo but it's gonna be hard for me to keep up with this very well on vacation, so

[Parama]

let's see:
dunn: nullish-scum
sad: scum
jester: nullish-town
hs: locktown
smith: i have failed to get a solid read on this slot all game and i ain't starting now but he's probably scum by poe
pie: locktown
mds: probtown
scout: townlean and probtown by pairing w/ sad
kagami: scumlean

wish i had a better grasp on this game as a whole but the shadow townflip really killed any momentum i had left and the sad scumread is basically the only thing i'm 100% sure on at this point

[Parama]

i saw your conversation on like 178ish or so and while i guess kagami comes off looking a bit better after that i did not get how it was relevant to this point

but i'm pretty tired so i might've just missed it

your pair and Jester pair being the town/town pairs doesn't work because it would make Dunn scum, which implies my pair is town/town and there can't be 3 town/town pairs.

I'm pretty sure me and Kagami are thinking the same way in that clearing her pair out today might be more optimal than clearing your pair, but I'm not 100% if she's in agreement or not so I'm actually waiting for her to tell me what she wants to do before proceeding.

hmm. walk me through why your pair is town/town if dunn is scum?

[Parama]

i vaguely remember dunn making some kind of stupid push on you in the pages i read but i don't remember what it was. can you point me at an example

so dunn-scum basically throws everything out of wack real quick, then.
but in the scenario where both my pair and jester's pair are t/t why does dunn have to be scum?

[Parama]

dunn: nullish-scum
sad: scum
kagami: scumlean

LOL these reads are fucking pathetic.

So basically the people pushing you are scum?

And you're trying to buddy up to the people who aren't pushing you in hopes you dodge the lynch today?

Good to know.

you realize these reads existed before any of you were pushing me right

[Parama]

@pie i guess it makes sense from your perspective then but i'm not sold on kagami being town. but i'm not sure it matters that much if the pair needs to flip anyways?

[Parama]

i reject any plan that involves sad living to endgame fwiw

[Parama]

sad is getting really boring with his quips now tbh

[Parama]

@dunn i'm burned out lol. shadow flip + preparing for vacation has killed any motivation to try and keep up with this game

[Parama]

your main points against me are based on a false assumption, so

[Parama]

your main points against me are based on a false assumption, so

[Parama]

for the record: i'm up like an hour later than i should be i'm going to sleep lol

[Parama]

i haven't really read much and probably won't have time to until tonight if at all but I had to meme

[Parama]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

[Parama]

But I think that's a lot less likely than scum!Dunn, town!Parama and town!Smith, with scum!Jester and scum!Arthur.

for the record i think this is the most likely scenario if dunn is the scum in the kagami/dunn pair, which is looking increasingly more likely

[Parama]

I think the least likely scenario is that Arthur and Parama are town together. I see no reason for scum not to merrily wagon one of them, then the other. It would be a literal goldmine. This is why I want to lynch Parama, then potentially Arthur.

i also agree with this 100%, i'd be floored if our pairs were both T/T, game's really already lost if that's the case :s

[Parama]

for the record: mds/jester is the goto endgame pair if kagami & arthur are both scum and pie/smith is the goto endgame pair if dunn is scum. can we all agree on this?

i honestly don't think there's any possible scumteam where one of these isn't true

[Parama]

Wait if Parama flips scum -> lynch Jester/MDS (scum flip) -> Dunn/Kagami flips town we're in lylo -> lynch mhsmith (scum flip) -> Win ???

again, any plan where you survive to endgame is a town loss, but nice try pal

[Parama]

O, dunn-smith.

Why do you think dunn is scum with smith?

you see it too right? it doesn't make sense. why doesn't it make sense?

there's just like
one piece that fits so perfectly

[Parama]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

If we're town, then scout is townreading us for what reason?

Smith spent a lot of today positioning himself for kagami-scum/kagami-discrediting, but did so in an interaction that would make scout town as well.

So that makes SAD the likely scummo in that pair, and I don't really see any compelling connection between SAD and smith/pie or jester/MDS.

not saying scout is scum, i really doubt it at this point

and it's not really about interactions here
i'd be surprised if it was sad + people from those pairs too tbh, it doesn't really make a lot of sense
which is why i think there's scum in your pair, and not in both those pairs
but at the same time letting that plan go unchallenged in the unlikely scenario it comes true is dangerous

[Parama]

Ps in a world in which HS-parama is town-town, why in the world does scum!me not just hammer when I had the chance? Like, obviously it would look bad, but keeping her alive with the chance to town tell or game solve seems super risky, compared to pushing along a LYLO state where town would need to hit 3/3 lynches to win. Obviously this ignores a me/pie team, but even ignoring me knowing it's false that strikes me as a transparently ridiculous notion. I guess I could theoretically be scum with a scum-scum pair, but even there it seems like scum!me should always hammer in that spot instead of questioning pie in PT on why she made the l-1 vote.

1. doesn't take into consideration that your pair is town/town alongside ours (which, if dunn is scum, is exceedingly likely)
2. wifom anyways tbh. what if you had hammered as scum? you'd be powerlynched when you were in a good situation to last to endgame. i think your pair is the most widely townread atm and was definitely the most widely townread at that point before kagami suddenly decided to start playing

[Parama]

I have no idea what that prior post means, but I don't think dunn-smith is likely.

the missing piece is that sad is scum lol

his proposed configuration doesn't make sense.
it doesn't make sense because he's excluding himself from the possibility pool.
put him back in the pool and there are suddenly options that do make sense.
almost like he's, y'know, scum

[Parama]

like legit at this point even aside from all the scummy crap he's spouted there's just no logical configuration where both my pair and his pair are town/town and since HS is town then i'm 100% there's scum in his pair

[Parama]

pie-parama-dunn could be reasonable?

also with leaving i meant getting lynched.

Scout


scout


scout

How come I'm suddenly in your scumpool? My plan involving your death shouldn't be bad to you.

Also, how does that scumteam work out? If pie and parama are scum HOW AM I SCUM TOO? and not your pair? Hello???

wow this is defensive as heck too

[Parama]

Hi smith, how about you produce a reasonably likely configuration of scum from {sad, scout, jester, MDS, parama, HS}, and explain why it's likely?

That would be a great way of demonstrating your towniness.

Am working on it, I will let you know if/when I feel like I have a good idea. Don't really feel like vomiting up a guess just for the sake of vomiting up a guess.

so you haven't been thinking about it at all, is what you're saying? despite it being the hottest topic in the thread for the past few days?

[Parama]

@Parama: If SAD is just being an arrogant jerk instead of a wolf, what does the game board look like to you?

if sad flips town (and scout does too, which i'd expect to happen) then gg we're boned because scum are gonna push a powerlynch on my pair

i also think this is incredibly unlikely

ftr if you think my scumread on sad is simply based on him being arrogant then L O L

[Parama]

Parama, can you talk about what was obvscum about this? I'm looking back at this and I don't really see what merited the "holy crap kill this with fire" treatment.

you literally quoted the post where i explained it

[Parama]

Of course there's also Parama, Jester, Smith,

which probably is the most likely scenario

, so your plan does have some merit. I just don't trust Arthur at all atm.

Also

I'm 90% certain

that Jester is town.

err

[Parama]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

[Parama]

Did Sad even respond to my post?

And scout got defensive for ~reasons~

pot kettle black

[Parama]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

8|

[Parama]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

You're taking it out of context. It was a hypothetical where Dunn and Kagami are both town and you're scum *instead* of Arthur. Like, as much as I think Jester is town, you flipping scum and Kagami flipping town means either a Parama/Arthur crossbus, inspector/Arthur scum/scum, or Smith/Jester scumteam. Which of the 3 do you think is more likely?

okay fair enough

and uhh
you're asking me about a scenario that assumes i'm flipping scum
this is a futile question to ask me in particular

[Parama]

again: my pair flipping before arthur's means that arthur should be the very next person to go, and anyone who tries to resist is scum 100%

[Parama]

@mod that deadline is on christmas day can we have an extension

[Parama]

@mhsmith's questions:
1. this is a waste of my time
2. we see different things as scummy, then, i'm not gonna repeat myself

[Parama]

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

What configuration in particular

I already said I disagree with any plan where sad lives so

[Parama]

what configuration in particular are you talking about then

[Parama]

I care only about the following: Kagami suicides, dunn flips town. Which pair makes it to endgame?

If you say "Not Sad-scout," (or as a corollary, HS-Parama pair), then I would like to evaluate whether your proposal makes more sense than sad-scout lives. This means some triplet of scum chosen from {pie, smith, jester, mds, sad, scout}

if your pair flips town then my pair is the only one i know is town-town for sure but #2 would be pie-smith i guess.
i'd be questioning if sad-scout was scum/scum more than anything else tbh because jester/smith/sad doesn't make a ton of sense to me
but scum/scum is also really unlikely

[Parama]

ahh good christmas came early, I don't have to read this game anymore

but yeah follow what I said please, get sad then get kagami/dunn and then I'd say probably get smith next but don't speed lynch cause I'm not as sure but also it won't be my fault if you screw it up

[Parama]

mds/jester still feels like the most likely T/T pair also

[Parama]

but yeah sad needs some serious powerlynching, get that pair before anything else

I don't really have much more left worth saying tbh

[Parama]

dank memes

[Parama]

@The_Jester why were you still in this game though you should've replaced out for serious

[Parama]

stoked to read over everyone's PTs

[Parama]

pie you did good

[Parama]

oh yeah and cerb your gambit was literally insane

[Parama]

@fakegod release the PT

[Parama]

andy i suck at scum lol
you just happened to be scum with me in my best scumgame ever so you think my scum play is pro but it's not

[Parama]

don't read me and HS's PT but do read this http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8621806

[Parama]

i regret not just posting it in-thread tbh anyways

i'm off to the micro queue again forever because large games suck

[Parama]

i'd love to play with most of you again though, playerlist was pretty great on the whole

[Parama]

yeah it's because you're being too hard on yourself

[Parama]

bussing me was a great plan

[Parama]

This game would have been super easy if people had just sheeped me.

Your charisma is better compared to a compost pile.

nahdia is my favorite

[Parama]

shadow stop being a complete goddamn prick for once and instead of crapping on players maybe analyze the fact that your play was actually pretty crap and your personality is absolutely abysmal, i hated playing with you and i'd wotc you any day of the week

[Parama]

shadow stop being a complete goddamn prick for once and instead of crapping on players maybe analyze the fact that your play was actually pretty crap and your

personality is absolutely abysmal

, i hated playing with you and i'd wotc you any day of the week

Not anything like this at all, you're worse for making it personal FTR.

dunno in what universe "being a total arrogant douchebag to everyone" is anywhere close to acceptable

[Parama]

and the worst part is you don't up to it and instead try to peddle off the blame to literally anyone but yourself

[Parama]

*is a complete fuckface to everyone*
"don't take it personal lol"

i can't think of any nicer term tbh

[Parama]

you're also the only person in the game who lynched scum so i have to revoke that title

unless you wanna call it a suicidal bus