Nanook wrote: I believe you've said it yourself that there is more than enough information in day 1, (19 pages worth, 5-6 of them belonging to you Mastin).
1: As I pointed out, no anti-town player contributes THAT much to the game early on. Anti-town role, sure, but they're definitely not going to be anything other than a pro-town player with that much content overall.
2: We gain less information from a lynch of me, whose alignment is already known. What're you going to do, analyze my reactions with others? Their reactions towards me? It's nothing you don't already know.
We gain far more information from the lynch of a player whose alignment we don't know. We get to see how others reacted to them, how they reacted to others, and also gives us better insight as to who dies during the night, why they were targeted, who likely shot 'em, etc.
I applause your effort to claim honorary townie
Roleclaim: Honorary Townie
.
I can be extremely open about my opinions without consequences. The scum most likely do not want to kill me. I scum hunt like a normal townie, I give opinions like a normal townie, and I give insight to the game like a normal townie...except for deeper. I show great logic, and back it up where a regular townie would be afraid to do so for risk of looking scummy.
but I just don't feel I can trust you regardless of what you've just posted.
After all of this...after I've proved time and time again how I want to help the town...after having claimed several times, and given proof, of my target, and how he won't be lynched...you still don't trust me.
I can't help that, Nanook.
But I could've let Dev die. Bank all my hopes of people believing me day two when saying Dev was lying. I didn't. I admitted to who I was, perhaps my greatest contribution to the game. I semi-cleared a suspicious player (Dev), semi-cleared a player we hadn't heard much from (Red), and I cleared myself from being mafia. When none had been true before.
I can't do much more than what I have. Give the math, research what the setup likely is, give theories as to what the scum and what the town can do, and scum hunt. That's no more than what any pro-town player can do. And I've done exactly that.
What more can I do?
Also in regards to knowing if OP is scum .. You read that statement how you wish, but from my perspective I believe it still to make perfect sense in how it related to the question I was answering.
This seems more like an admition than a defense.
I don't know if OP is scum, if I did it would be him who I'd be voting for.
Unless you're partners, and don't want to buss him.
I believe the term tunneling was coined (this is new for me, just heard of it since getting back to the site over a year).
You seriously haven't heard of
Confirmation Bias?
It was around well before I joined in October. At least a few months.
Zor wrote:You want us to out more PRs for your sake?
No, for the town's sake, to test the setup, test the power of the scum and the power of the town.
For example, tomorrow you come out and claim masoned. If we have real masons, they have to make a choice: CC you and call you out but out themselves?
Zor...If I were to lie, I wouldn't have claimed today. I would've claimed to be the cop, and watched as Devestation was lynched.
No.
I wouldn't lie day two about being masoned.
If there are no masons, no one ccs, and town has to make a choice of whether to believe you or not (which is the same thing that probably happens if there are other masons).
Again, I won't lie.
The thought had occurred to me.
That lying was the best hopes.
I could lie, say I'm masoned, claim that my target was someone else, and lynch Red for scummy comments and easily accepting that I said he was my target.
I wouldn't.
And if I lived, I won't.
I am not going to lie.
I haven't once lied since I claimed.
I've shown exactly what I would've done, shown the breadcrumbs and meta, pointing to my lyncher target STRONGLY being one of only three people...I can't be more honest that that, Zor.
But the last tells us very little. There are a plethora of reasons you wouldn't die and no one would flip mason.
If it's the last, then we gain no information.
If any other, then we procure a great amount of information from the night.
And I think we have both scum and nonscum on Mastin and off it.
Precisely why the lynching of a person whose alignment is known has a negative impact on information.
You say it's in the numbers and you say it'll take time.
There are millions of variables.
I will have to do them all, and it might take days. Doesn't matter. I have the determination, and motivation, to prove that your math is incorrect. I will do as much as necessary to prove it, I will take as long as needed to prove it without a doubt, and that those voting me off of it (Ryan, Ace) are being misguided.
But you're going to have to do better than that.
I've posted my defense several times, and proven how I've been scum hunting. Add the complete math (which I've only done a fraction of, mind you), and you get one of the best defenses ever seen on MS.net. If that isn't enough to convince you, you'd either be lying scum, or tunneling town to disbelief.
It'll just take time to finish.
Really, we have a LONG time 'til the deadline.
Players can WAIT for me to do the math.
We can argue about which assumptions to make, but the numbers will be similar either way.
I'm going to assume the worst case scenarios first, of no scum deaths in lynches and night-kills. That gives the worst case scenario for win percentages, and the best-case scenario for numbers.
And we can test the setup without using you.
Not nearly as well. I volunteered as a Guinea Pig. No other person's death can give as much information as mine, during the night.
(NOTE: Key words:
. During the day, my death is what gives the LEAST amount of info.)
I've already done numbers
For ONE VERY SPECIFIC SCENARIO, yes, you have.
BUT ONLY ONE.
and they clearly support my statement
Numbers are so easy to manipulate to support your cause. Even if the math is correct, it's the given numbers that are in question. (Five total scum, a vig, etc.)
although you have not directly addressed them.
At least in my head, the math itself works out, to me. There's nothing to address about it. All I can do is counter it, show how in most circumstances, you're incorrect about the math favoring a d1 lyncher lynch.
I don't think that changing the number of scum teams, vigils, etc. will cause a difference in the end result (i.e. lynching you today is superior to lynching you tomorrow), but I'm willing to look at the math.
Again, it'll take time. Lots of it. I stand firm by the facts that the math will support me.
but those who ignore statistics are ignoring a major tool.
People who use statistics alone are the exact same people who suggest no-lynches day one, or policy lynches of certain players like Zwet/Emp, on occasion.
But if scum hunting on day 2 give us a more statistically probable chance of catching scum, then it's a strong indication that's a route we should pursue.
Again, I disagree.
A flip day one of another player gives us their reactions, and the reactions of others to them. Plus the night-killed people, who likely killed them, who the night-killed people interacted with and who interacted with them, etc.
My flip day one gives us nothing about interactions with the lynch,
And only the night-kills.
Nothing else.
I don't think I've manipulated the numbers at all.
Giving a specific scenario instead of all of them qualifies.
certainly, but it will not change the result.
Oh, yes it will.
I'm barely at the surface, and I already gave one (albeit risky) scenario where the numbers favor keeping me alive for a greater chance at hitting scum.
Posting what I have.
), that I can prove that it is best not to lynch me day one. I already gave one scenario which proved why leaving me alive gives a far greater chance of nailing scum, with minimal risk, where to lynch me gives far less.