Newbie 656 Game Over!

[Artem]

I'm here, I'm here.

thinktank casts suspicion on Artem in posts 138 and 143, but never votes for him. This can be a buddytell - create an appearance of being against each other, without actually voting. But then, thinktank never really voted for anyone. Artem sat on his Drifter wagon for a while, which can be a scum strategy. It was Artem's suggestion to end the day, and although he said he'd prefer to lynch chapter 5, he got on the thinktank wagon fairly early with the third vote, at a time when I feel that lynch could have been averted if he had wanted to. If this was bussing then it was a pretty good one.

I've actually called him out in 139 on agreeing with SL but not adding anything new or casting a vote himself. I think that thinktank was keeping his options open by not committing to a vote, something I found suspicious.

At the end of Day 1 I

did

find Chapter 5 more suspicious than thinktank, but as I said in 425, we needed a consensus to move the game along. I was happy with lynching Drifter/Petunho or Chapter 5, but when it became clear that we weren't going to agree on either, I thought that a lurker lynch would work well also.

Now, because there was a night kill and Chapter 5 was inactive and Petunho was on vacation, I'm leaning more towards both being town at the moment. Of course, either one could have submitted a night kill and simply not posted in the game itself, but that's a little bit of WIFOM territory.

At this point, I feel that the points presented against lifeofpie are valid and he is the next most logical choice. I'm not getting a clear read on RandomGem or thegeckoj and Fenchurch I've always got a good townie vibe from.

[Fenchurch]

I don't think it's sensible to rule Petunho out. He posted his going-away message after the final lynch vote had been cast; in that situation, as scum, you could send your night choice in straight away before you leave, and I'd imagine the mod would accept it. I'm not saying that is what happened, but I don't think it's impossible.

[lifeofpie]

Well, Petunho said he'd vote...?

[NabakovNabakov]

Sorry for the wait, but...

Kairyuu replaces chapter 5!!!

Votes remain as counted.

[Kairyuu]

Hi all!

Lifeofpie: Claim. The case against you is strong and I will hammer if you don't put up some defense soon.

RandomGem: Hiya scumbuddy! (from a different game)

I'm here to help out your replacement problem, and I'll be plenty active for the rest of the game.

@doc: If there is a doc, they should protect me tonight on the off chance that lifeofpie doesn't flip scum and end the game

, as chapter 5 is logically unable to be scum, and therefore I am too (I like being confirmed town, it's so much easier to play than nonconfirmed, although scum is reasonably easy as well). Therefore, the scum will have to either try to kill me, the confirmed innocent, or swing randomly to try to get a power role.

[Kairyuu]

I just realized that Artem was in this game too. HI ARTEM!! Wanna get into a massive argument again just for kicks?

Also, I think RG is likely town due to meta (play is different from Mini 658), and reading the game seems to support this position in my mind. thegeckoj would be someone I would consider for tomorrow's lynch if we're wrong about Lifeofpie, but I'd put his suspicion rating at about 40%-45% after a quick initial read. Not quite enough for a vote according to my personal rating scale. Lifeofpie however, is sitting with a nice 80% margin due to the scum flip on thinktank (who is impossible to tell with anyway due to severe lurking in every game I've seen him in). I would consider Petunho, but not very strongly, and I would put thegekoj above him in terms of lynch priority.

[Fenchurch]

I'm here, I'm here.

thinktank casts suspicion on Artem in posts 138 and 143, but never votes for him. This can be a buddytell - create an appearance of being against each other, without actually voting. But then, thinktank never really voted for anyone. Artem sat on his Drifter wagon for a while, which can be a scum strategy. It was Artem's suggestion to end the day, and although he said he'd prefer to lynch chapter 5, he got on the thinktank wagon fairly early with the third vote, at a time when I feel that lynch could have been averted if he had wanted to. If this was bussing then it was a pretty good one.

I've actually called him out in 139 on agreeing with SL but not adding anything new or casting a vote himself. I think that thinktank was keeping his options open by not committing to a vote, something I found suspicious.

At the end of Day 1 I

did

find Chapter 5 more suspicious than thinktank, but as I said in 425, we needed a consensus to move the game along. I was happy with lynching Drifter/Petunho or Chapter 5, but when it became clear that we weren't going to agree on either, I thought that a lurker lynch would work well also.

Yep that all makes sense, probably silly of me to write it like that, but my "Artem" paragraph actually contained reasons both for and against you being scum.

Welcome Kairyuu! Whilst you are not

completely

confirmed in my mind, it is very likely, and I agree that you would make a good doctor target (if it is necessary). Given that the mafia don't know whether there is a doctor in the set-up or not, they would have to decide then between risking a blocked kill, or leaving a confirmed innocent alive.

I don't have any other comments or questions for you Kairyuu, given your current position. For the record though, have you read through the whole game already, or just the most recent pages?

[Kairyuu]

Given that the mafia don't know whether there is a doctor in the set-up or not, they would have to decide then between risking a blocked kill, or leaving a confirmed innocent alive.

Yup yup. That's the point. I did the same thing in my first Newbie game (661) and it kept the cop alive to D2 even though the doc didn't listen and protected me instead.

I don't have any other comments or questions for you Kairyuu, given your current position. For the record though, have you read through the whole game already, or just the most recent pages?

A little of both actually. I first looked over the first 12 or so pages to analyze RandomGem's playstyle so I would know what sort of established playstyle he had on the site for FDaT (Mini theme 658) when he was scum with me. After that I kinda forgot about the game because it was moving so slowly, and only checked back recently and noticed that you needed a replacement. So I have read all but page 13 to the start of D2. I have reason to trust the case (because more than one player proposed it on their own, and they can't all be scum), so I'm willing to go for it.

If Lifeofpie doesn't claim by tomorrow at 8pm EST (GMT-5) then my next post will contain the hammer. I'd be posting more, but I'm bogged down with homework and I have my college applications due quite soon. I can still keep up pretty easily now though (I died in both of my other games yesterday).

[Petunho]

If Lifeofpie doesn't claim by tomorrow at 8pm EST (GMT-5) then my next post will contain the hammer. I'd be posting more, but I'm bogged down with homework and I have my college applications due quite soon. I can still keep up pretty easily now though (I died in both of my other games yesterday).

I agree. I myself was hoping that thegeckoj would had given his word and given his opinion about the situation, but this looks a lost case. He continues to drift along. If there comes nothing radical from lifeofpie I'm 100% with the lynch.

I still hope thegeckoj posts something on his thoughts before it happens...

[lifeofpie]

I am vanilla, no ice. Nothing more, nothing less.
Hi kairyuu!
Arguments are annoying, so none of that unless necessary, plz.

[Kairyuu]

@lifeofpie: Well, that was the best possible situation I would say. A vanilla claim means one of two things. Either you are telling the truth (indicating that you do not have a power role) or you are scum who doesn't want to risk a claim of power role in case you are counterclaimed. Either way, lynching you removes a player with at least 1/5 chance of being scum assuming random odds (7 players - 1 for me - 1 for power role we have a 75% chance of having at least one of). The fact of the unanimity of the town in their desire to see you lynched increases those odds dramatically.

I will act as the hammer today.

vote: lifeofpie

Hi kairyuu!

Hiya! Sorry about replacing in and hammering you after only a few posts. It's nothing personal, I just think the math works out.

Arguments are annoying, so none of that unless necessary, plz.

But . . .
I like arguments. And last time it happened he was scum, and replaced out before he got lynched (granted, he wasn't suspected at the time).

[lifeofpie]

Oh, well, I guess that was an exceedingly stupid move on my part. If think flipped town, you would have lynched me. Well, beginners luck rulez!
Good luck town.
Also, I stand by my WIFOM, because I think I would have been more careful as scum.

[Kairyuu]

*Tap* *Tap* *Tap*

Hello? Mod? That was the hammer you know.

[Fenchurch]

Yeah NabNab hasn't been that quick to respond lately. I actually sent him a PM to say that we'd lynched, on the evening that you cast your vote, and he hasn't opened it yet. I don't think he is able to check the site much at the moment.

[Kairyuu]

Ah. Ok. I guess that can't be helped. It seems that pie is gonna flip vanilla, which is unfortunate, so I say we move to thegeckoj for tomorrow, as he is next scummiest in my opinion.

[NabakovNabakov]

Final Vote Count of Day 2

lifeofpie (4)

RandomGem, Artem, Fenchurch, kairyuu

Chapter 5

Not Voting (3)

lifefopie, Petunho, thegeckoj

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch

lifeofpie,

Townie

has been lynched Day 2

Please send night choices quickly, though I think we all realize that my speed will be the determining factor here.

[NabakovNabakov]

After another long day of hunting Mafia (no so successful this time), the entire town decides to sleep in late. Many feel, however, that one person takes it entirely too far.

Fenchurch - Townie

Killed Night Two

Begin Day 3

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[Kairyuu]

Ok. Here's our situation. We have 5 players. Out of those 5 players, we have one scum, and one confirmed townie (me). We also have 1 more mislynch before LyLo if we need it. That leaves us with 1 confirmed and 4 unconfirmed, with 2 chances to catch the one scum. Assuming random lynches we have approximately a 50% win rate as it stands.

This is what I propose:

If we have a cop with at least one confirmed innocent

on a living person who is not me

(of course, a confirmed guilty works too) then they should claim now. A cop without said information

should not claim

. This is the only time that a claim of this nature will do more to help the town than it will to harm it.

If and only if

a cop claims in this fashion, then a doc, if one exists, should claim. Protects will not be necessary, as there were no blocked NKs. If there is no cop claim, there

should not

be a doc claim.

If we get the cop claim, we have at least 2 confirmed innocents in addition to the one we already have (3 if both investigated players are still alive). That makes 3 of the 5 players remaining as confirmed townies. With a mislynch and a LyLo lynch we are guarenteed a town win, because all we have to do is lynch the unconfirmed players. Assuming the doc claim as well, we may even have a 4th confirmed, assuring an instant win for us.

If there is no cop claim then we resume scumhunting of course, and hope that the doc can protect me for LyLo, because the scum is essentially forced to at least try to kill me tonight.

[Artem]

I don't think it's sensible to rule Petunho out. He posted his going-away message after the final lynch vote had been cast; in that situation, as scum, you could send your night choice in straight away before you leave, and I'd imagine the mod would accept it. I'm not saying that is what happened, but I don't think it's impossible.

Ok, good point. For some reason I thought that if Petunho sent in a night-kill choice before he left for V/LA then the night would be a lot shorter. I've seen mods end the night as soon as the night choices are in but I guess it's not a universal rule.

@Kair: I agree with the strategy but what do you mean by this:

Protects will not be necessary, as there were no blocked NKs.

[Kairyuu]

I meant that if there is a doc then there is no need to include who they protected in their claim, as it tells us nothing due to the fact that neither of the NKs were blocked. If there had been a successful block of the NK, then we might have another confirmed townie. I'm not saying they can't include that bit in their claim, but it isn't strictly necessary in my opinion.

[RandomGem]

Hey guys, finally not busy.
Happy Thanksgiving!
To risk pulling another "lifeofpie," I was actually really surprised to see lifeofpie flip town. Sorry Kairyuu, no perfect win for you? As for Fenchurch dying, I expected that, and might even have been suspicious of her had she survived the night. Guess scum missed some chance at WIFOM?

If we do have a cop claim as you suggest, Kairyuu, then scum will know whether or not a doctor exists in this game... so basically if he knows there's no other doctor, he'll be able to fakeclaim... which isn't too good. But it'd still be a win, so I'm ok with that plan.

For today, I'm pretty suspicious of thegeckoj. I think reasons have been given before, and I don't want to repeat them...

[Kairyuu]

-Kairyuu, the self-proclaimed Activity Nazi, moves in on the floundering Newbie 656 game thread, eyes blazing with the black fires of rage-

Yo! People! I know it's Thanksgiving in the US, but you should still have had time to post something yesterday at the least. C'mon! There are 5 players alive, and only two have clocked in since the Day started. Unless I get everyone responding I won't be able to tell how to proceed from here.

Edit: That makes three, but we still need to hear from theeckoj and petunho now.

Some new information to consider:

-Scum number 1, thinktank, was a lurker. He was also an IC.

-The N1 kill hit Shadowlurker, a vocal and active player.

-N2 kill hit Fenchurch, another active and vocal player (and unfortunately the closest thing I had to a confirmed innocent in my mind).

Based on these three bits of information we can infer a few things.

1. thinktank-scum as an IC, may have provided a sort of unconscious "this is what scum do" to his partner.

2. The deaths of the two most active players over the course of two Nights implies that the remaining scum may be trying to eliminate any forces that could propose another lurker lynch without looking like a hypocrite.

3. Following from 2, this would imply that the remaining scum is, in fact, another of the heavy lurkers. This narrows down the possibilities as to who is likely scum by quite a bit. I will wait until everyone has chimed in on my first idea before I propose who I think is scum under these premises.

@RandomGem: Why would you think I was expecting a perfect win? If lifeofpie had flipped scum then I wouldn't even have put this game into my records, as my only contribution would have been to pop in, hammer the last scum, and end it. I only include games that I have actually made enough of a contribution to matter (and all games I'm in from the start).

I'm curious as to why you would have been suspicious of fenchurch if she had lived. I don't remember seeing anything at all that pointed to her being scum.

If we do have a cop claim as you suggest, Kairyuu, then scum will know whether or not a doctor exists in this game... so basically if he knows there's no other doctor, he'll be able to fakeclaim... which isn't too good. But it'd still be a win, so I'm ok with that plan.

That possibility is already accounted for in my plan. I have a separate system of determining if a doctor should claim that completely rules out the possibility of a fakeclaim. I didn't mention it when I first made the suggestion because it is entirely contingent on the cop claiming with living innocents. I may as well outline it now so that no one makes a rapid followup claim without thinking.

ADDENDUM TO CLAIM SYSTEM:

If/when the cop claims with his confirmed innocents, the doctor claim begins. The doctor should claim ONLY if they have been named as one of the innocents. If someone who has not been confirmed innocent claims doc, we treat them as unclaimed due to the likelyhood of a scum fakeclaim.

[Artem]

It's an interesting theory, Kair, but as I've said before half the town are lurking so I don't think it will help us narrow down the possibilities. In fact, that may have been the whole point of killing of the vocal players: for the remaining scum to blend in better.

But even then, I don't know if I agree with the motivation behind the NKs. The first kill makes sense: remove an experienced player. The second kill I actually view as removing one of the more townie-looking players. It's obvious that scum didn't go after you for the fear of getting blocked by the doc. Fenchurch must have been seen as the second most-townie. (In fact, I'm now kicking myself for saying that I've always got good townie vibes from Fenchurch in my last post of D2, since I likely tipped scum off about who I view as townie.)

[Kairyuu]

@Artem:

In fact, that may have been the whole point of killing of the vocal players: for the remaining scum to blend in better.

Well yes, that's right. That was what my theory essentially boiled down to. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

But even then, I don't know if I agree with the motivation behind the NKs. The first kill makes sense: remove an experienced player. The second kill I actually view as removing one of the more townie-looking players. It's obvious that scum didn't go after you for the fear of getting blocked by the doc. Fenchurch must have been seen as the second most-townie. (In fact, I'm now kicking myself for saying that I've always got good townie vibes from Fenchurch in my last post of D2, since I likely tipped scum off about who I view as townie.)

Meh. I was speculating. Either of us could be right about that. I should really learn to stop speculating about scum kills. Too much WIFOM involved.

[RandomGem]

Eh, we can think whatever we want about the nightkills really. I personally use them as a lot of my intuitive bases of suspicion.
At the risk of being hypocritical, 40% town lurk makes me sad.