Micro 993 | The End

[Frogsterking]

Well on second thought I guess it wouldn't be auto loss. Nevermind, Seer just keep staying hidden for now, scum team can't read pr tells.

[Klick]

Can everyone unvote if town? We lose this game if we miselim today.
I am a Vanilla townie so I have no objections to Finral's Seer claim but I would like for this day to not end abruptly like yesterday did.

Both of Finral and Kop's votes are fine here since from their perspectives they know each other are scum - Finral!town has a guilty on Kop, and Kop!town would know this isn't true.
I do concur that we should actually have a day today lol.

Finral, you'd better have a decent explanation for the quickhammer.

I hammered so I wouldn't be night killed.

Kop and then probably Klick, maybe Frogster.

Glad I didn't check Momrangel like I was going to.

Sorry, missed this.
From the start, this setup values the PRs at half an investigative (as in, there is a 50% chance a PR does anything). Why was avoiding a NK worth a blind execute?

That being said, Klick, why not unvote yesterday to take NM off e-1?

I figured we could get the game rolling from the info we'd get from the wagon. My vote in the first place was to encourage people to look elsewhere, because NM has a tendency to be an easy first wagon/vote.

I find both Finral and Kop rather scummy today.

[Klick]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

And by clear, I meant that a PR could enter three way with a living inno report.

[Frogsterking]

Can everyone unvote if town? We lose this game if we miselim today.
I am a Vanilla townie so I have no objections to Finral's Seer claim but I would like for this day to not end abruptly like yesterday did.

Both of Finral and Kop's votes are fine here since from their perspectives they know each other are scum - Finral!town has a guilty on Kop, and Kop!town would know this isn't true.
I do concur that we should actually have a day today lol.

Finral, you'd better have a decent explanation for the quickhammer.

I hammered so I wouldn't be night killed.

Kop and then probably Klick, maybe Frogster.

Glad I didn't check Momrangel like I was going to.

Sorry, missed this.
From the start, this setup values the PRs at half an investigative (as in, there is a 50% chance a PR does anything). Why was avoiding a NK worth a blind execute?

That being said, Klick, why not unvote yesterday to take NM off e-1?

I figured we could get the game rolling from the info we'd get from the wagon. My vote in the first place was to encourage people to look elsewhere, because NM has a tendency to be an easy first wagon/vote.

I find both Finral and Kop rather scummy today.

So you believe that it's a bus?

[Frogsterking]

As far as bussing goes, I was thinking that Finral seemed pretty impulsive so might go for that kind of play, even though it's suboptimal. Still I feel like it's unlikely.

[Klick]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

But how do you know the Seer can find a guilty on *anyone*? This line of thinking implies there are Werewolves instead of Mafia, which we don't actually know (Finral could be Mafia fakeclaiming Seer). I find it fairly suspicious that you're defaulting to assuming that.

So you believe that it's a bus?

Not really, more just that they both really look like scum individually. I'd agree that a bus is unlikely but not impossible, and it's probably not worth our time considering the possibility unless one of them winds up alive tomorrow after the other is executed.

[Amélie]

Alright so Frogsterking basically just counterclaimed.
There's no point in being secretive about prs at this point(it's open setup and we are in limlo) and I am now pretty certain that the scum team is just Kop and Frogsterking.

Kop's reply to Finral's guilty was horrible. I'm not sure how else to describe it because it really was just bad.
Frogsterking is hinting at counterclaiming but honestly, if he's town seer, he would just counterclaim immediately and he'd know Finral is scum. If he is vanilla townie, he would see that no one counterclaimed the seer claim so he would know Kop is scum and Finral is town. However, scum Frogsterking is in a bad position because if he doesn't counterclaim the seer claim, his buddy Kop is confirmed scum because no one countered the seer claim. But if he counterclaims, the seer knows the entire scum team and the scum team only has one way to win which would be elimming Finral today.

[Amélie]

The only alternative to a Kop/Frogsterking scum team would be Finral/Kop where Frogsterking, town seer, played extremely badly at the beginning of the day.
These are the only possibilities that I see here.

[Amélie]

But I do think that Frogsterking is just scum here. He can't be vanilla townie otherwise he would think Finral is town and Kop is scum. That means he would have to be town seer if town but town seer in his position would immediately counterclaim and also claim his own night action - instead Frogsterking doesn't counterclaim, says that prs should not out(if he were a town seer, he would be the only pr left so this is just strange), and then calls Finral scum.

None of that makes sense from town.

[Amélie]

If Amelie and Finral are just trying to push a quick win through then I think Finral should have faked an inno on a Townie to pocket them.

I find Amelie's reads here unbelievable purely because there is no reason whatsoever to trust what Finral is saying.

I think considering a PR died and my only TR got night killed I'm going to take a bit of a risk and assume Finral isn't bussing their partner.

That being said, Klick, why not unvote yesterday to take NM off e-1?

Also this post right here just says that everyone could potentially be scum BUT kop probably isn't because Finral wouldn't bus his buddy.

[Amélie]

VOTE: Finral

Obvious scum. Deserves rope for that scummy hammer.

I will say that I believe Finral is town Seer here but mostly because I find Kop's reaction to the guilty to be very scummy. I have to work but I'll be back right after. Please no one hammer or leave the hammer available while I am away.

Where? I don't see the scum tell in Kop's reaction.

Can everyone unvote if town? We lose this game if we miselim today.
I am a Vanilla townie so I have no objections to Finral's Seer claim but I would like for this day to not end abruptly like yesterday did.

Why are you claiming? It reads like role fishing. Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

This post doesn't make sense from a town seer. Saying Finral is scum is a clear counterclaim and we are in limlo, why is claiming a problem? When Klick didn't counterclaim, they indirectly claimed Vanilla townie. This setup is open. Frogsterking is just scum trying to find reasons to scum read any townie to get the win by us mislimming today. Yeah, no I think the team is just Frogsterking/Kop. It makes perfect sense and I don't believe this play ever comes from town.

[Amélie]

Sorry for spamming but I'm about to announce that

Frogsterking/Kop

is the scum team here and it is very very obvious.
Klick, you are a fellow vanilla townie, what do you think about all of this?
I tried my best to explain my thought process and if anything doesn't make sense, I'm willing to explain again.

The setup looks like this:
Notmafia - town cop
Finral - town seer
Amélie - vanilla townie
Momrangal - vanilla townie
Klick - vanilla townie
Frogsterking - scum/werewolf
Kop - scum/werewolf

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

#1 But how do you know the Seer can find a guilty on *anyone*?

This line of thinking implies there are Werewolves instead of Mafia, which we don't actually know (Finral could be Mafia fakeclaiming Seer). I find it fairly suspicious that you're defaulting to assuming that.

So you believe that it's a bus?

#2 Not really, more just that they both really look like scum individually.

I'd agree that a bus is unlikely but not impossible, and it's probably not worth our time considering the possibility unless one of them winds up alive tomorrow after the other is executed.

#1

I don't. That's why I said originally that leaving the pr alive could

potentially

be auto loss for scum. As I'll quote below, it seems to me that the scum team is pretty concerned with the identity of the Seer, which could be a sign that the setup is werewolves, but it could also just be fishing.

#2

I understand Finral, but why Kop?

If Klick is scum, they setup for the next day phase.

If Frogster is scum, they come in and fake claim Seer.

Alright so Frogsterking basically just counterclaimed.
There's no point in being secretive about prs at this point(it's open setup and we are in limlo) and I am now pretty certain that the scum team is just Kop and Frogsterking.

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

[Frogsterking]

Amelie is scum telling in 63 because by appealing to Klick she's making it obvious that she knows Klick is town, even though if you ISO her there's no indication previously that she townreads Klick.

[Amélie]

Amelie is scum telling in 63 because by appealing to Klick she's making it obvious that she knows Klick is town, even though if you ISO her there's no indication previously that she townreads Klick.

I'd like to see an actual case on me instead of posts like this.

[Amélie]

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

Ok, town seer. Who did you check last night?

[Frogsterking]

Amelie is scum telling in 63 because by appealing to Klick she's making it obvious that she knows Klick is town, even though if you ISO her there's no indication previously that she townreads Klick.

I'd like to see an actual case on me instead of posts like this.

Tell Finral in the scum chat that he can PM me after the game if he wants tips on finding the PR.

[Amélie]

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

Ok, town seer. Who did you check last night?

I hope you realize that you have pushed yourself into a corner where you cannot say you checked anyone except Kop. Because you came in today saying everyone could be scum except Kop probably wasn't. That just isn't town mindset. Town Seer comes in and states they got a guilty or a clear. If they see someone else claimed their role, they IMMEDIATELY counterclaim because they know that is scum.

You on the other hand say prs shouldn't out, don't counterclaim, and don't claim your night action.

You are town seer or scum but I'm pretty sure you are just scum.

[Frogsterking]

Did you spend 15 minutes analysing the thread between those two posts?
Also feeling vaguely positive towards Momrangal. I don't think Amelie failing to come back to the thread is AI though

On reflection, I think this is a weak indication that both Klick and I are town, since Momrangal was the target of the night kill, it makes sense to eliminate the player that the townies are town reading. Though the obsession of finding the last PR makes me think that Finral was pretty convinced Momrangal was the PR.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

But how do you know the Seer can find a guilty on *anyone*? This line of thinking implies there are Werewolves instead of Mafia, which we don't actually know (Finral could be Mafia fakeclaiming Seer). I find it fairly suspicious that you're defaulting to assuming that.

So you believe that it's a bus?

Not really, more just that they both really look like scum individually. I'd agree that a bus is unlikely but not impossible, and it's probably not worth our time considering the possibility unless one of them winds up alive tomorrow after the other is executed.

Did you spend 15 minutes analysing the thread between those two posts?
Also feeling vaguely positive towards Momrangal. I don't think Amelie failing to come back to the thread is AI though

On reflection, I think this is a weak indication that both Klick and I are town, since Momrangal was the target of the night kill, it makes sense to eliminate the player that the townies are town reading. Though the obsession of finding the last PR makes me think that Finral was pretty convinced Momrangal was the PR.

I'm also interpreting Klick's attempts to sort myself and Kop quoted above as another weak town tell, making me confident enough to end the day.

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

Ok, town seer. Who did you check last night?

I hope you realize that you have pushed yourself into a corner where you cannot say you checked anyone except Kop.

Unfortunately you've backed yourself into a corner by setting up teams too early IMO based on your team's overconfidence in their ability to get a drop on the incoming counter claim.

[Amélie]

My posts and thought process has been a little scattered but I'm going to explain all of my thought process in this post as best as I can and hopefully it makes sense to Klick because Klick's vote is all town needs to win this game.

Ok so lets ignore day 1. That day didn't matter. 1 page of nothingness and I did not like Frogsterking's push on me but that's alright because perhaps that was bias. Today however, had many things that cannot be dismissed.

Finral claims town seer the moment the day starts as well as a guilty on Kop. Klick, Kop, and I check in and don't cc. This means all 3 of us are vanilla townie or scum.
Frogsterking checks in and says Finral is scum. A vanilla townie would never say this because they would know Finral was not countered by anyone(including themselves because they are vanilla) so that rules out that option. This means that Frogsterking is either town seer or scum.

Then Frogsterking says that prs should not out. Town seer would counter claim immediately here and 1v1 Finral(scum in that case)
But no, Frogsterking says prs should not out but Finral is scum. I believe Frogsterking is trying to replicate town prs and their tendency to be secretive. Perhaps he is trying to replicate pr softing but the problem is that yes, town prs normally would be softing and crumbing on day 2 but this game is different. We are in limlo on day 2 and no town pr would be like that in this game especially since it's open setup. We all know and are informed that there is only 1 town pr left. If Frogsterking is town seer, he would know instantly that Finral is scum, he would assume Kop is town because of that, and then proceed to tell us his night result and then 1v1 Finral.

But no, because he is scum, he needs to counterclaim but he doesn't want to so he ended up in the middle of no mans land with a confscum status.

If Frogsterking is scum, then that confirms Finral as town and the guilty is then on the second scum, Kop.

So really, the key to this puzzle is figuring out what Frogsterking's alignment is. Once you figure that out, the game is solved. Hopefully that made sense.

[Amélie]

I was originally a little worried that I was confbiasing but no, Frogsterking is scum and that rules out the possibility that Finral is scum with Kop which was my paranoia solve.

[Frogsterking]

@Klick

I'm confident enough to end the day at this point, I have a mild town case on you and a shockingly solid scum case on Amelie, I didn't really read Amelie's walls because I believe they're tinfoil, if you're having trouble sorting this game I can make one wall and it will be more persuasive than Amelie's IMO.

If it's unnecessary for me to post my wall for you to sort then I believe it's better that I don't because it's basically just giving scum team information at that point.