Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[HighPrincessErinys]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

Now I’m confused
What exactly are you saying here?

If scum sees a name that isn't one of them on a shipment with tea found in it, it gets ALOT easier for them.

[Dunnstral]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

Now I’m confused
What exactly are you saying here?

If we act with no plan and the shipment that the tomboy daughter is on is investigated, and no smugglers are on that shipment, they can narrow things down that way. I was providing a counter to the argument that following the plan made things easier for mafia to figure out who the tomboy daughter is.

[Gamma Emerald]

I see absolutely zero indication that smugglers have the ability to know anything about the shipment? I believe the PA is the only person that gets that level of info

Also, PA knows who TD is so PA can just lie

[Dunnstral]

• The result of the investigation, including the
  type of the shipment
  , players who picked that
  shipment
  , and whether or not
  Tea
  was found in the
  shipment
  , will be
  publicly announced
  at the beginning of the day.

[Gamma Emerald]

Oh I missed the part where it was public, noted.

But like, in that case doesn’t kyouko plan just prevent that entirely?

[Dunnstral]

I was providing a counter to the argument that following the plan made things easier for mafia to figure out who the tomboy daughter is.

I was explaining that there is some risk either way.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.1

Gamma Emerald [1] - Celebloki
ssbm_Kyouko [1] - SirCakez
SirCakez [2] - HighPrincessErinys, Gamma Emerald
Dunnstral [1] - Roden

Not Voting [5]

- Hu Tao, Dunnstral, atsi, Claptastik, ssbm_Kyouko

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-12-07 16:00:00)

[Claptastik]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Did you check the first game to see what they tried before developing this?

I looked but it's 17 players and 105 pages and I don't have time to read it.

[Claptastik]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Did you check the first game to see what they tried before developing this?

I looked but it's 17 players and 105 pages and I don't have time to read it.

I checked the setup and it's a lot different - like people voted on what to inspect, and the PA role could veto it, it was 5 days instead of 3 before scum won, had to catch 2/3 scum instead of 1/2. A lot was different and I did not read the game, just the setup.

[Dunnstral]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

[Claptastik]

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

PA and TD know each other's identity but don't have communication. PA doesn't know which shipment TD is on.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

If they both ship the third item then regardless of which of the first 2 items is inspected there will be no tea found because all of the tea (smugglers and TD) will be on the third, unsearched shipment of wheat. This puts us in a situation where the searched shipment is publicly guaranteed to contain all Merchants meaning the smugglers know none of them are TD/PA, but the merchants also now have ICs to match. Both pools get POEd if tea is not found. Even without a plan in place, both factions are going to get info for their respective POEs when the shipment is revealed.

There is an alternative of everyone (including the TD) agreeing

not

to ship a specific item, and having the PA inspect that empty shipment (this isn't explicitly prohibited in the setup but I'm not sure if it's a valid option). This will amount to a nightless game unless scum is able to guess the PA by chance, but scum autowins on D3 if we don't kill one by then. Maybe it's good to inspect an empty shipment on D1 to give no info to scum before they get a chance at guessing the PA, then on D2 we employ the strat where the TD ships wheat and the rest of us randomly ship L/C

[Claptastik]

I checked the setup and it's a lot different - like people voted on what to inspect, and the PA role could veto it, it was 5 days instead of 3 before scum won, had to catch 2/3 scum instead of 1/2. A lot was different and I did not read the game, just the setup.

Cool, thanks.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

PA and TD know each other's identity but don't have communication. PA doesn't know which shipment TD is on.

In my plan the TD ships wheat and the rest of us ship L/C and the PA inspects L/C. Publicly committing to this plan gives no additional info on who the TD or PA are beyond the actual mechanical clears

[Claptastik]

In my plan the TD ships wheat and the rest of us ship L/C and the PA inspects L/C. Publicly committing to this plan gives no additional info on who the TD or PA are beyond the actual mechanical clears

OK, I missed that.

I'm having difficulty wrapping my head around this. Are you super confident that the information generated does more good for merchants than for smugglers?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod 2 questions
- are we allowed to vote for no elimination?
- if the PA tries to inspect an empty shipment, will they be forced to make a different inspection instead?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The info generated should be approximately equally good because scum are looking for 1 player exactly to win (they get a bonus try at finding the TD if they find the PA though), and we are looking for one of 2 players to win. The POEd players are the same for both factions if a shipment without the TD is inspected, regardless of if the shipment contains tea.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

However, if a shipment with the TD on it is inspected it will be catastrophic for town, because town will not know whether there is scum on the shipment, but scum will know the TD is on the shipment. That's the bottom line and that's why designating one product for the TD, publicly from the beginning of the game, and furthermore not discussing who will ship what, is the safest strategy for town

[Claptastik]

That makes sense, thanks.

BTW why is it called a Tomboy Daughter? What has that got to do with shipping and smuggling?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Roden's plan is appealing if the TD and PA arent on the 3 person shipment but this is definitely achievable now that I think of it. I feel dumb for not seeing it before. After one elim we have 9 players left. Split the remaining 9 players in numerical order between L/C/W and the PA can inspect whatever they want to because the PA knows where they and the TD will end up.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This guarantees 3 clears for town or it outs scum if one of them is not in the same group of 3 as either the PA or the TD, because if someone is not where they should be, they are scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And the PA never inspects themself or the TD

[atsi]

There is an alternative of everyone (including the TD) agreeing not
to ship a specific item, and having the PA inspect that empty shipment (this isn't explicitly prohibited in the setup but I'm not sure if it's a valid option). This will amount to a nightless game unless scum is able to guess the PA by chance, but scum autowins on D3 if we don't kill one by then. Maybe it's good to inspect an empty shipment on D1 to give no info to scum before they get a chance at guessing the PA, then on D2 we employ the strat where the TD ships wheat and the rest of us randomly ship L/C

This seems like a very bad plan, since on D2 we'd have no info to go on. It's strictly better to have the PA check one person, and everyone else ships a different item. We either get 1 conftown or a very good lim candidate, while scum still gets no useful info.

[FakeGod]

@mod 2 questions
- are we allowed to vote for no elimination?
- if the PA tries to inspect an empty shipment, will they be forced to make a different inspection instead?

No execute is allowed.
PA is allowed to inspect an empty shipment.