NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[House]

Still having a hard time buying skybird!scum.

You made some good points, but I'd like to see her response.

[Skybird]

Why unvote Marquis?

[Skybird]

Marquis, as you get to know me better, you will find that being polite and considerate come naturally to me. The posts you are reading as appeasing is me being myself. But I'm sure you will read this as scummy as well.

[House]

So if you play this way as either alignment, that doesn't tell us much.

What about his other points? What's your analysis of the VC you asked Wake to fix?

[Skybird]

In looking at the vote counts, Majiffy votes Tree/Marquis most of day 1 and all of day 2.

Somewhere between vote count 1.15 and 1.16, Marquis drops his Tree alt.

On day 3 Psyche has 2 votes at 3.1. Between 3.1 and 3.2 Marquis claims masons with Psyche. After that, Majiffy never votes for Marquis again. Majiffy was scum. Why after saying he thought the mason claim was fake, did Majiffy never vote for either one of them? It would have made sense for Majiffy to continue voting Marquis. But he didn't. Also, Marquis claimed that he and Psyche crumbed that they were masons. But when asked for the evidence, there are only 2 posts. And I'm having a bit of trouble finding them again.

Another thing that stands out looking at the vote counts is the number of times that Marquis and Psyche voted for the same person. There are 45 vote counts and 14 times that Marquis and Psyche vote for the same person. That's 31.1% It seems strange to me. Looking at the lynch votes in particular, the only one they are both on is Aero.

[Skybird]

House, I was looking at all of the vote counts, not just the one I asked Wake to fix.

[House]

Thanks for that, skybird.

Marquis, remember what I said I didn't think skybird would be capable of?

I am thinking I was underestimating her. She seems rather capable.

[House]

Is that VCA including tree votes?

[Skybird]

House, one of the reasons I want to see your thoughts on Marquis is to see if you can provide good points. Scum has to manufacture their reads on town players. But Marquis doesn't think it's important to know what you are thinking about who is scum. Why would that be?

When you read Marquis in regards to you, he town reads you and then flips and leans scum on you all within the last 5-6 pages. When you didn't react to his scum reading you, he is scum reading me. He even says he won't be able to read the game state any other way.

For you both, the whole reason I'm willing to be patient about this is I don't want to screw up. I know if I put my vote on the wrong person, scum will quick hammer. So I'm asking questions and reviewing things trying to figure it all out.

[Skybird]

House, yes, Tree was an alt of Marquis'. So he's really been in the game the whole time.

[House]

House, yes, Tree was an alt of Marquis'. So he's really been in the game the whole time.

I know this.

I was asking if you included his alt's votes in your VCA.

[Skybird]

Yes, I did.

[House]

The conflict I am having right now is that you have been portrayed by Wake as needing to be handled with kid gloves, leading me to believe that you were inexperienced and... basically... fragile.

When I learned your USMB handle, it explained a bit, but you are generally a borderline inactive player over there from what I've seen of your play, so your VCA came as a bit of a surprise to me.

I'm starting to wonder if you are hiding some mastermind scheming behind that polite exterior, lol.

Why did you ask Marquis the reason he unvoted?

[Skybird]

Vote Count
1.1 Majiffy votes Tree
1.2 Majiffy votes Tree
1.3 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy
1.4 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.5 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.6 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.7 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.8 Psyche unvotes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.9 Psyche no votes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.10 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.11 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.12 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.13 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.14 Tree and Psyche vote Texcat, Majiffy votes Titus (Tree has 1 vote)
1.15 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Texcat (Tree has 4 votes)
1.16 Tree(now Marquis) votes Texcat, Psyche votes Oka, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 4 votes)
1.17 Marquis and Psyche vote Texcat, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 3 votes)
1.18 Marquis and Psyche vote Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote)
1.19 Marquis votes Texcat, Psyche votes Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote) Aegor lynched
2.1 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.2 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.3 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.4 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche hammers Aero Aero lynched
3.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Jiffy, Psyche no vote (Psyche has 2 votes)
3.2 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 1 vote)
3.3 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 0 votes, Marquis has 1 vote)
3.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.6 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.7 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.8 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.9 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk TN lynched
4.1 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.2 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.3 Marquis and Psyche both voting for Majiffy. Majiffy votes Oka. Majiffy Stabbed. Oka lynched
5.1 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.2 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.3 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe PV self-hammers
6.1 marquis votes House, Psyche no vote
6.2 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.3 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.4 Marquis and Psyche vote Shaddowez Psyche lynched
7.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez Shaddowez lynched


I had this in a spreadsheet but it didn't translate over as well as I wanted. I have wondered why Marquis dropped his Tree alt. Part of me thinks he did it because a lot of people were scum reading him as Tree. That's why I was making a note of how many votes Tree/Marquis had.

[Skybird]

The conflict I am having right now is that you have been portrayed by Wake as needing to be handled with kid gloves, leading me to believe that you were inexperienced and... basically... fragile.

When I learned your USMB handle, it explained a bit, but you are generally a borderline inactive player over there from what I've seen of your play, so your VCA came as a bit of a surprise to me.

I'm starting to wonder if you are hiding some mastermind scheming behind that polite exterior, lol.

Why did you ask Marquis the reason he unvoted?

Not going to talk about USMB here. PM me if you want on that subject.

No mastermind here. Just a player struggling to learn the game and not blow it for town after we've made a good comeback.

I'd like to see Marquis' response before I answer your question.

[House]

Vote Count
1.1 Majiffy votes Tree
1.2 Majiffy votes Tree
1.3 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy
1.4 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.5 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Majiffy (Tree has 5 votes)
1.6 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.7 Majiffy votes Aero, Psyche votes Aero, Tree votes Titus (Tree has 4 votes)
1.8 Psyche unvotes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.9 Psyche no votes, Tree votes Royal Ape, Majiffy votes Tree
1.10 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.11 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree votes Oka, Psyche no vote
1.12 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.13 Tree votes Texcat, Psyche votes notscience, Majiffy votes Titus
1.14 Tree and Psyche vote Texcat, Majiffy votes Titus (Tree has 1 vote)
1.15 Majiffy votes Tree, Tree and Psyche vote Texcat (Tree has 4 votes)
1.16 Tree(now Marquis) votes Texcat, Psyche votes Oka, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 4 votes)
1.17 Marquis and Psyche vote Texcat, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 3 votes)
1.18 Marquis and Psyche vote Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote)
1.19 Marquis votes Texcat, Psyche votes Aegor, Jiffy votes Marquis (he has 1 vote) Aegor lynched
2.1 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.2 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.3 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche no vote
2.4 Jiffy votes Marquis, Maquis votes Aero, Psyche hammers Aero Aero lynched
3.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Jiffy, Psyche no vote (Psyche has 2 votes)
3.2 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 1 vote)
3.3 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Jiffy no vote (Psyche has 0 votes, Marquis has 1 vote)
3.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.6 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.7 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.8 Marquis and Psyche vote PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
3.9 Marquis votes TN, Psyche votes PV, Majiffy votes Mirhawk TN lynched
4.1 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.2 Marquis and Psyche vote Majiffy, Majiffy votes Mirhawk
4.3 Marquis and Psyche both voting for Majiffy. Majiffy votes Oka. Majiffy Stabbed. Oka lynched
5.1 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.2 Marquis votes PV, Psyche no vote
5.3 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.4 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe
5.5 Marquis votes PV, Psyche votes Reinoe PV self-hammers
6.1 marquis votes House, Psyche no vote
6.2 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.3 Marquis votes Shaddowez, Psyche no vote
6.4 Marquis and Psyche vote Shaddowez Psyche lynched
7.1 Marquis votes Shaddowez Shaddowez lynched


I had this in a spreadsheet but it didn't translate over as well as I wanted. I have wondered why Marquis dropped his Tree alt. Part of me thinks he did it because a lot of people were scum reading him as Tree. That's why I was making a note of how many votes Tree/Marquis had.

He

was

looking pretty scummy early game as tree, lol.

[Skybird]

Here's where I'm at. I think Marquis is scum. People were reading Tree as scummy and I think that's why he switched out to his (what I assume is) his regular account. The fake masons claim never made sense to me. In the newbie games the two rules everyone goes by is don't lie if you are town and don't fake claim. I do realize there are times lying is acceptable but on the whole, I agree that lying isn't the way to go.

I've been reading through a few Majiffy games to try and get a feel for him as a player. Everyone says that they don't think Majiffy would list all of his scum partners in one post. But it's already been proven that he at least listed 2 out of the three. I think he listed all three and probably received a bunch of crap for it in the scum thread.

So why else would Marquis claim with Psyche like that? My read on Psyche is someone who was not confident in their scum role. This is because for most of the game, he wanted to replace out. I think his scum buddy Marquis claimed masons to give him cover and protect him. I think Psyche outed the fake claim to make us think that Marquis was town.

House, my intention is to vote Marquis tomorrow. I'd like to give Marquis the chance to respond and for you to let me know what you think.

[House]

The tree shenanigans had my scumdar ringing off the hook, as it did for most folks from what I could tell on catch-up.

I think the fake masons claim was to save Marquis as much as it was to help Psyche.

Now he's trying to hide behind a bunch of game theory, but somebody that is so knowledgeable about theory can easily mold their playstyle to fit what they are selling as town play.

Marquis should have been lynched long ago, it's the fake masons claim that kept him alive. When the claim was outed as fake, he had done enough damage control that town overlooked the start of the game due to several replacements that weren't there for it (like me) and general apathy for things that happened too far back to bother worrying about.

I'm sure he's our remaining scum. I'm going to go ahead and vote because I know you are town now, hammer when you are satisfied with your read.

VOTE: Marquis

[Marquis]

not hammering

[Marquis]

oh my god i'm exhausted

[Marquis]

not going to be able to convince you another time

i mean your arguments for me being scum are pretty much acknowledging that game theory and play make me town BUT you're paranoid of how good i am (???) so i COULD be scum

really hope you're not just townreading skybird due to "effort" i mean if she's scum and wants the win of course she'll work hard to try to get a vote on one of us

i guess i'm just waiting to see if i'm wrong about my reads. another blow to my scumhunting but if that's the case at least there's still a chance to win

skybird when you get here post to let me know if i should bother trying to prove to you that house is scum. if not and you're scum just end this and hammer.

[House]

According to YOUR game theory, you are town. Do explain why scum would not mold supposed theory to fit their play. That would be quite informative.

And now I'm scum since I made my decision? Yeah, right.

[House]

Actually, I see you kept your options open there at the end of your post.

[Marquis]

do you understand how lylo works? did you learn that

because if skybird is scum, she's going to hammer so trying to figure out what proves you're scum is pointless: 1) you're actually town 2) game would be over anyway

if skybird is town and assuming she plays to wincon and doesn't hammer, only then would proving you're scum actually be potentially fruitful with the actual chance for town to still win

bear in mind i have no fucking idea right now who's actually scum. believe it or not after pv and psyche flips i'm not terribly confident in my remaining reads especially in a 3p lylo

[Marquis]

fun fact there's an issue with my head right now in that while i logically know the chances of you unvoting me are slim to none i still have that emotional urge to assume you're town fucking this up and do my best to keep trying to convince you you're wrong

i told myself, i wouldn't allow myself to become overly invested in how a long game ends
how do i stop