UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[ChannelDelibird]

Assuming we lynch Tammyscum, you're almost certainly dead Tomorrow. I need you to get past the paranoia and actually seriously read me before the end of the Day.

CDB, what makes you say that Nexus would be the kill tonight? Also, why are you only appealing to Nexus here and nobody else?

- Fenchurch

Seems obvious to me. Asssuming Tammyscum dies Today, both you/Elmo thinks I'm the buddy (still thinking as if Elmo's in, but I agree that I've not had as much opportunity to be obviously emotionally readable as I often do so I'm not necessarily expecting a townread from Bookitty), and I still townread Nexus more than you. Scum don't kill you no matter what if they have a reflexive doctor. If Nexus were alive with me tomorrow I wouldn't hesitate to vote the actual scum; without him I'd dither and therefore appear scum waiting for a misvote. Seems fairly obvious from my POV.

I'm appealing to Nexus as he's the one least far down the rabbit hole of scumreading me right now, and he's also the person who knows me the best. It's more out of hope than expectation because his read on me doesn't often rise above the paranoia but, as I day, I expect him to be confirmed town by Tomorrow and if he can figure out that I'm not bullshitting then that's valuable.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't deny that I've been in and out of this game but, by and large, we all have. May I remind you that lurking is NOT a scumtell for me. Consider the pattern of this game - excitement and activity Day 1, slower and bursts of activity later. You've seen what happens when I post frequently and expect regular interaction in this game, it's that things like my early consciousness of perhaps looking off happen. But when we get to days like this, when the only thing I was really waiting on for a while was Tammy input to see if I was going to second-guess myself, and that doesn't arrive quickly, my urgency is naturally going to decrease.

More later, have to get to work

[Bookitty]

Okay, I've read through and looked at some things a second time. I'm having real trouble developing reads here, but I see I'm not alone. I'm just going to put my reads out there and then we can argue about how I am so wrong and everything:

Town to Scum:

Nexus - I think this is my strongest townread out of the group due to thought processes at various points being similar to my own.

CDB - With the caveat that I'm not very good at reading CDB, I am not seeing the huge scumminess that others seem to have identified. I get some town feelers from the Delibird.

Tammy - I thought Primate was town. I suck at reading Tammy, but none of the connections I have made make sense unless this slot is scum.

Ampersand - Easily the scummiest, imo. A lot of things feel faked or forced. I do not like at all.

I want to discuss these reads because reading a game is never as immediate as playing it. So comments, questions and mild abuse are welcome!

And hi, CDB

[Ampersand]

Bleh. I don't feel at all like having to deal with this kind of stuff at this point in the game.

Maybe you can take a look at Wicked Mafia; some people had the same sort of reaction to us there. Or you can just consider that this town's going to have more than just a Tracker and an unconfirmable Mason in terms of power roles? I acknowledge Tourist doesn't exactly look like the most useful role but I can't really help the fact that Patrick made a set-up with more subtle town power; I did briefly consider the idea of taking advantage of the fact we got to claim last and fake claiming something more powerful to make the argument more straightforward although I don't think Fen would've let me and it could've been a problem if there is indeed a Mafia Reflexive Doctor and we lynch them first. But there's no way that as scum I would willingly claim Tourist and invoke all that subtle stuff, speculating on the existence of Mafia Reflexive Doctors and such.

[Nexus]

Yeah but you also get flustered as scum.

Sure. Doesn't make Nexus right.

Why are you flustered over a small wagon?

Well, it's irrational, but here's the thought process, more or less:

1) So I say something awkward/recognise that people think I said something awkward
2) Aware that if I say something else awkward, maybe it'll snowball and I'll get lynched (as has happened before)
3) Aware that nothing else is happening in this game right now so people are going to be particularly keen to get things going, looks like that's going to be on me
4) Because nothing else is happening in this game right now, there's not a lot about which I can think other than how people are thinking about me

I mean, ultimately I'm reasonably confident that after a bit of pressure people should realise that I'm town, and of course the game has to start somewhere, but right now the game's set up for me to be very self-conscious, so here I am. I guess this is what early votes are for? It's just more helpful to me when they poke at people whose alignments I don't already know.

This is one of my town!ping posts from CDB.

[Nexus]

Primate's posts are just a lot of prodging and no real meat.

HMM

[Nexus]

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

[Bookitty]

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

If this is directed at me, I don't know. My experience with her is seriously limited, sorry.

[Fenchurch]

Oh Bookitty. I haven't played with you before, and CES says he has only once, a year ago, and you were scum. So I don't know why, but I just assumed that you would easily see us as being very readable and obviously town. Maybe because I generally do get town-read when I'm town, even from unfamiliar players, or at the least I rarely get called 'the scummiest'.

Ampersand - Easily the scummiest, imo. A lot of things feel faked or forced. I do not like at all.

So then. This isn't something I'm sure I'll be able to answer to, because if you think I sound 'fake' when I'm just playing natural and honest and open, then I'm not sure what else I can do, but I'll try. Can you give some examples, please?

Overall, your reads list is that you lean town on Nexus and CDB, you find us scummy, and you think Tammy is scum too because of 'connections'. Can you explain that last part a bit more? What are these 'connections' that you have made?

CES would also like you to answer to his argument about the balance of the game and the lack of town power.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

This is one of my town!ping posts from CDB.

Nexus - this is the same post of CDB's that I found most townie, and for a significant portion of the game, my townread on him was riding largely on that post. But someone here is scum, and comparatively, I don't think it's a post he'd find too hard to fake. There are plenty of F2F games where he's been run up at the start and diffused the wagon in a similar way, I'm pretty sure as both scum and town, and most of his defence (feeling awkward, not having much else to comment on so early in the game) are true regardless of his alignment.

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

If this is directed at me, I don't know. My experience with her is seriously limited, sorry.

I'd assume it's a question for anyone.

I don't have much experience playing with Tammy either, but I was following Team Mafia: White Flag at the point when she swapped in, and I found her fairly readable as town there. I would say she contributed more in the way of reads and discussion than she has here. That's part of my reason for having Tammy/Primate as the second mafia now.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Oh Bookitty. I haven't played with you before, and CES says he has only once, a year ago, and you were scum. So I don't know why, but I just assumed that you would easily see us as being very readable and obviously town. Maybe because I generally do get town-read when I'm town, even from unfamiliar players, or at the least I rarely get called 'the scummiest'.

Ampersand - Easily the scummiest, imo. A lot of things feel faked or forced. I do not like at all.

So then. This isn't something I'm sure I'll be able to answer to, because if you think I sound 'fake' when I'm just playing natural and honest and open, then I'm not sure what else I can do, but I'll try. Can you give some examples, please?

Overall, your reads list is that you lean town on Nexus and CDB, you find us scummy, and you think Tammy is scum too because of 'connections'. Can you explain that last part a bit more? What are these 'connections' that you have made?

CES would also like you to answer to his argument about the balance of the game and the lack of town power.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

This is one of my town!ping posts from CDB.

Nexus - this is the same post of CDB's that I found most townie, and for a significant portion of the game, my townread on him was riding largely on that post. But someone here is scum, and comparatively, I don't think it's a post he'd find too hard to fake. There are plenty of F2F games where he's been run up at the start and diffused the wagon in a similar way, I'm pretty sure as both scum and town, and most of his defence (feeling awkward, not having much else to comment on so early in the game) are true regardless of his alignment.

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

If this is directed at me, I don't know. My experience with her is seriously limited, sorry.

I'd assume it's a question for anyone.

I don't have much experience playing with Tammy either, but I was following Team Mafia: White Flag at the point when she swapped in, and I found her fairly readable as town there. I would say she contributed more in the way of reads and discussion than she has here. That's part of my reason for having Tammy/Primate as the second mafia now.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Goddammit.

- Fenchurch

[Nexus]

Yeah that's answered my question then.

Currently would prefer Tammy as today's lynch.

[ChannelDelibird]

Agreed that Tammy does not seem as much as if she's on a mission in this game as in that; though the stakes here are lower. Her play seems to match that of someone trying to do damage control with a couple of big bursts of posts after replacing into a scum slot with few posts.

[Nexus]

i hadn't realised how little primate had contributed until i looked at his iso.

[Ampersand]

i hadn't realised how little primate had contributed until i looked at his iso.

I had realised. But, I don't think he contributed all that much in the first or second UK invitationals, and he was town in both, so I gave him a bit of pass on activity. And I found his post 101 pretty townie - although I did wonder if him finding the game stressful was a scumtell, but I reckoned he would have been more guarded about his feelings as scum.

Well, lack of quickhammer means at least one out of CDB and Tammy is scum, so I'm glad we have that much right, at any rate.

- Fenchurch

[Patrick]

Votecount

Tammy (1) -- ChannelDelibird

Not voting: Ampersand, Bookitty, Nexus, Tammy
5 alive, 3 to lynch.

[Nexus]

Which one would you put your money on right now?

[Ampersand]

Which one would you put your money on right now?

Right now, Tammy. She's only made one post since the vote and it was pretty half-hearted, so I now suspect she's annoyed at having replaced into a scum slot and can't find the energy to expend on a losing cause. Sorry Tammy. Also I looked back at Primate's iso after you posted and it was actually worse than I had remembered, so you had a good point there. Although at the time it was definitely offset for me by the previous games that I already mentioned, and by everyone else also providing less content and activity than I would expect from them as well.

That said, I'm still inclined to think it's CDB+Tammy. CDB didn't give any explanation for why he felt ready to place a vote then in lylo, nor why he chose Tammy over Elmo/Bookitty. It looks to me like it came in response to CES' 510 singling CDB-Tammy as the scumteam. CDB-scum in that position has to take some action to counter that, otherwise the link will just become more obvious, so I think that's what prompted his vote on Tammy.

But lastly, neither of these are reads I would choose to bet on (money/reputation). I asked CDB earlier in the game how sure he was of his reads, I was curious because he was acting a lot more certain than I am, and he reinforced that with his answer.

(I sometimes plan to keep a list of the reads I have conviction in, prior to the relevant flips, to check my accuracy rate. I don't have conviction in every read I ever make but I think there is still something to be said for whether I am right when I think I'm right. This game, I haven't yet had any reads I would add to that list...)

- Fenchurch

[ChannelDelibird]

What part of my readiness to vote isn't super obvious, though? I think Nexus is town by play. I think you're town by role and somewhat by play. That only leaves me with Tammy/Elmo if I'm happy with those reads and, while people are concerned about the possibility of Tammy/me, I'm making them put money where their mouths are. Think it's us? Fine, start with her. That I found Elmo townier than Tammy was a secondary factor but a less relevant one than showing that it's not me/Tammy trying to latch onto a misvote elsewhere.

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean, this game gets a lot easier with two strong townreads. A lot.

[Ampersand]

What you say does sound reasonable, and you may be telling the truth, but:
a) that still doesnt explain exactly what prompted the vote, ie why not a bit earlier, why not a bit later? Presumably something happened at that point in the game which made you feel 'this is the right thing to do now' and your lack of commentary accompanying the vote makes me think it might be the thing I said.
b) I know I've felt that exact pressure in F2F before: 'someone's just linked me with my buddy; I'd better vote my buddy to show its not true', without me having a good explanation for that vote.
C) you said afterwards that you 'haven't ruled out Ampersand as scum', but 'don't see a team that doesn't include Tammy'. Why did you still see us as a possible partner to Tammy but not to Elmo?

-Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

CDB, I'm pretty sure you also said that Elmo's replace out post seemed pretty town.

Who do you think has looked more town this game out of you and Elmo?

What have you done that you think you wouldn't have done as scum?

- Fenchurch

[Bookitty]

The things I did not like from you, Ampersand, mainly arose around your tourist claim. You were pretty much null to me before that, but when you were being very explicit about not wanting to be mistaken for the person who made the kill, and thus selecting targets that you thought were under suspicion, it pinged me badly. I didn't like your push on Porochaz, who seemed pretty obvtown to me, but anyone could be wrong. The way you presented your behaviours and actions as a tourist, however, just seemed overly careful and not very convincing.

Why do you think you should be obvtown to me, please? It's rare that I read any hydra as obvtown barring significant experience with them or a compelling reason to think otherwise; the very nature of hydras allows them to excuse whatever missteps they make by disavowing it with the other head.

The setup speculation doesn't mean much to me either. I believe (and I could be wrong, correct me if I am) that there could be multiple factions in this game, so trying to second-guess the mod seems pretty pointless. I'm trying to work out the implications of that now.