Modified the post from Sissy to take into account the flip.
In post 436, Sissy Cooper wrote:Fixed:
Grace, hazel, handler -- claimed town
Cha cha, swedes -- no hardclaim but implied maybe jester
Raymond -- claimed jester
Excluding Sissy we have two VTs left alive, and 2 jesters, and 2 mafia.
If we sort these claims into claimed town and claimed not town, we have 3 town and 3 not town. We know there has to be 4 not town remaining. Therefore, anyone in the NOT town pool is a okay with me. If we hit a jester, then we have to get picky to make sure we get scum as me or the other VT or jester loses us the game.
Let's look at the elimming in the town pool. One of two things happens 1) we elim the jester/mafia who fake claimed VT or 2) we lose. Considering I'm VT, this means elimming in Grace/Hazel is a 50/50 loss shot, much as I scumread Hazel I'd rather elim a mafia in the jester claimants. I know 100% certain that both VTs did not fake claim Jester, being one myself. Whoever is the VT of Grace/Hazel as I don't suspect a VT fake claimant in the jesters would also agree that this is the case. The fake claimant of Grace/Hazel whether jester or mafia, must also agree that at most 1 townie is fake claiming in the jester claims or they rescind their VT claim which would be grounds for turbo elim.
Therefore the odds of hitting town go down drastically elimming in the claimed jesters. Yes, it's possible, but it's not practical.
Therefore of Cha Cha, Swedes, and Raymond has at most 1 town.
Mafia is also a game of control. If scum all fake claimed jester, then town + jesters can elim in the jester claims. Mafia team much as they may pretend to want to be elimmed has to care. Giving entire control to the jesters is not going to happen so one of the two mafia is much more likely to claim VT. Therefore one of Grace/Hazel is likely scum.
Let's compare this to the end of day wagon
A J Carmichael (5): Raymond Chestnut, Lila Pitts, Sissy Cooper, The Handler, Cha Cha,
The Swedes (1): Grace Hargreeves,
Lila Pitts (1): A J Carmichael,
Not Voting (2): Hazel Rofa, The Swedes,
We know Sissy is town, I'm town, Lila was jester. This leaves Raymond and Cha Cha as possible scum.
Let's take a look at Cha Cha's hammer. It was a snipe hammer which is typically a scum claim. Then Cha Cha turns around and begs to be elimmed while helping town. That's pretty much a pro jester move. This means we either elimmed a town all on our own with no mafia help (possible but not probable) or Raymond is scum.
So let's take a look at why Raymond specifically voted AJ.
The
vote specifically was a shit post about rights vs lefts.
Most of it is Raymond try harding and specifically in
this post Raymond says he is not a jester. You know that old adage when someone tells you who they are the first time, believe them. I believe Raymond is not a jester.
In this post he suggests specifically AJ and Grace Both of whom are players who I townread.
In this post Dude claims to be bored talking to AJ despite most of his posting is not in response to AJ.
Then in
this post He tries to deflect concerns of him try harding by saying someone has to. No he doesn't. There's a different kind of try harding in his ISO. He's aiming for certain players specifically. He ignores Hazel outright except a townread.
Then in post 226, Raymond is thinking Lila and Grace. He has a weird fixation on the Grace slot. Raymond has an established habit of cross voting whoever susses him. Grace did and I did and he cross votes. With how he ignored Angel and the majority of his ISO is Grace focused this is not the play of someone trying to get miselimmed. A jester wants to interact with as many people as possible to get voted.
