NY 192: Game Shop Mafia (Over)

[DeathNote]

Pieguy is just going to play the rest of this game for us.

[Errantparabola]

VT

[pieguyn]

Why are you certain 3 scum?

it takes an absurd amount of town power to balance 12-4. 13-4 is the "standard" ratio for a 4-mafia game. if you intend on knocking off a town player, at that point, you need to balance it with a severe increase in power bc at that point town hardly has any breathing room (17p = 5 mislynches -> 16p = 4 mislynches with 4 scum if no kill is blocked).

right now we have

{rolecop, miller, JK, (BP), VTs}
vs
{cop, goon, ???} + neighbors

which is pretty awful in terms of power even if you ignore the fact cop is a false inno for the rolecop. none of these town roles do anything; the only one which is even somewhat useful is the JK. rolecop can clear the miller, BP can _maybe_ draw a kill if lucky (and this is assuming DN is actually town. if he winds up being SK, this role isn't even on the town side), and neighbors are null roles which in this case was mostly null utility given there was a scum neighbor.

tl;dr is i probably would not sign up for another AP game if his sense of balance led him to make a 12-4 setup with this (lack of) power

[pieguyn]

for reference, the 19p i ran was

{gunsmith, 2x vig, fruit vendor, masons x3, VTs}
vs
{doctor, goon, goon, goon}

the setup would have been fine if i had only used 2 masons instead of 3. these roles are collectively much more powerful than what we have here with a much more forgiving ratio (15-4 there, 12-4 here).

[pieguyn]

i have to point out that the obvious explanation i can think of for DN's role is that it's just an SK role (SK neighbor + mafia neighbor + town neighbor would make sense. mafia neighbor + BP town neighbor + another neighbor feels completely random in terms of why make a town neighbor bulletproof, although not impossible - the obvious explanation especially given lolAP is he put it there as a deliberately awful-looking role). moreover, the series of posts starting from 1393 is at first glance what i'd expect SK who is no-killing would post if hoping to misdirect away from themselves.

the keyword there is "at first glance". i have actually seen an SK make blatantly obvious posts similar to that one before, except in that case his posts were not reasonable from a town POV. these posts at least are. so i'm not taking this as much of a tell.

[pieguyn]

then there is the issue of if we lynch mafia today and the game is still going, who the SK actually is.

<- is horrible at SK hunting, so i have no fucking idea where to start.

[pieguyn]

at the least, i want to say a hypothetical mafia-DN wouldn't have played D1 with davesaz the way he did. i'm also considering that perhaps davesaz outed the BP claim because his scum team didn't have daytalk and he wanted to relay that information to them somehow.

[pieguyn]

i don't think the neighborhood distribution would be mafia neighbor + mafia neighbor + BP town neighbor. regardless of how i think about it, that just seems really inelegant from a design POV. i *could* see it being mafia neighbor + mafia neighbor + SK neighbor ("whee let's put a neighborhood with nothing but scum"). -.-

also,

the obvious explanation especially given lolAP is he put it there as a deliberately awful-looking role)

if i'm playing "outguess AP", i would actually bet on this being more likely than SK neighbor. obviously not really something i'm going to factor into my reads, but it is something i am noting

[pieguyn]

depending on what AP would do, i could *maybe* see this being 12-3.5 if DN is town.

[pieguyn]

Subject: Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

Nero

, Gaius Baltar and

Town Miller Neighbor

who went missing on Night 1.

noted.

[pieguyn]

depending on what AP would do, i could *maybe* see this being 12-3.5 if DN is town.

if this is the case, then the traitor would appear as a guilty for the rolecop, and that would give the mafia cop a purpose besides being a false inno.

hm

[pieguyn]

I am going to accept this as my working theory for the time being, if anyone disagrees let me know and why. it seems a lot more reasonable than an SK who decided to no-kill every night.

[Political Clout]

I don't disagree. Frankly I am no good on set-up spec so I have no clue if what you say is demonstrable. It certainly makes for a decent line of thought, if nothing more.

As far as sk hunting; usually someone who is okay with any death and reserved in stances is an okay place to start. Their are players who have a "personality" or certain playstyle that they have tailored. But as a general rulemif someome is independently scummy they might be an sk.

I was hoping for more activity from the active players. And go through an accelerated sort of rvs phase of my own. And jump in. I am not sure whether to read day 1. At first glance it seems vacuous of intelligent discussion.

[Firebringer]

Okay here are my actions:

Night 1: No action
Night 2: pirate mollie
Night 3: DeathNote
Night 4: No action
Night 5: Golden Robster

[pieguyn]

kinda wanna just lynch GR and see where that takes us.

more in a few hours

[JarJarDrinks]

VOTE: Robster

- Scum didnt shoot into a BP claim
- Scum didn't decide not to attack
- Scum didn't attack Robster (They're shooting into a much more town-looking slot)

Only logical explaination for the missong kill is Robster was the attacker.

[Political Clout]

Okay here are my actions:

Night 1: No action
Night 2: pirate mollie
Night 3: DeathNote
Night 4: No action
Night 5: Golden Robster

I am not sure I agree with this choice(?). I just find it odd. I would think firebringer you would be eager to reveal a possibility for why their was no kill. And a highly reasonable possibility considering your role.

My inquiry is two fold: why did you think it was reasonable to wait and why did you not pursue rob day start as scumhunting does not require you reveal information a conclusion about someone does. I dislike your presentation immensely.

[Firebringer]

I am not sure I agree with this choice(?). I just find it odd. I would think firebringer you would be eager to reveal a possibility for why their was no kill. And a highly reasonable possibility considering your role.

My inquiry is two fold: why did you think it was reasonable to wait and why did you not pursue rob day start as scumhunting does not require you reveal information a conclusion about someone does. I dislike your presentation immensely.

Why would you think I would come out of the gate and claim this. I wanted to see what everyone had to say before I gave my role or action. I honeslty probably should have waited to say power role, but I digress.

if I pressured rob day start and I didn't reveal, scum would know that I blocked them.

[pieguyn]

ftr i think i have a good enough idea of where things stand where i'd feel comfortable going ahead with the lynch and evaluating further tomorrow. not to mention, *if* the 4th scum is a traitor (i'm not taking this for granted although i have a lot of trouble seeing how this setup is balanced otherwise), and Fire's result is accurate (which it definitely should be), the game is over immediately.

i feel pretty much OK with a town (not-mafia) bloc of {Fire, PC, DN} based on what i have seen - JJD could be in here too but i wouldn't bet the game on it

[pieguyn]

regardless of when we lynch, Fire should publicly claim his JK target for the next night. that way, if it's a scum flip, scum confirms someone as town if a kill goes through.

if it's a town flip, whether it would apply depends on if we think there are 4 scum in the main group or 3 (i.e. 3 main group + traitor or 3 main group + SK).

[Golden Robster]

VOTE: Robster

- Scum didnt shoot into a BP claim
- Scum didn't decide not to attack
- Scum didn't attack Robster (They're shooting into a much more town-looking slot)

Only logical explaination for the missong kill is Robster was the attacker.

Please explain why they wouldn't attack me.

And take note, JJ said this last day.

pisskop flipping red = scum robster

[pieguyn]

is there any specific reason you would be a viable NK target? not facetious, i'm asking because i haven't read D5 or D4 in much depth.

[Golden Robster]

Probably because I listed off at least one scum in the latter parts of day 5.

That would leave DN, Fire and Cabd.

[Political Clout]

VOTE: Robster

- Scum didnt shoot into a BP claim
- Scum didn't decide not to attack
- Scum didn't attack Robster (They're shooting into a much more town-looking slot)

Only logical explaination for the missong kill is Robster was the attacker.

:facepalm:

Please explain why they wouldn't attack me.

And take note, JJ said this last day.

pisskop flipping red = scum robster

What is your argument here? I'm "seeing", but not understanding what your point actually is.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Golden Robster