Newbie 1707 - Game Over

[KaladinStormblessed]

Ebwop: ok n was supposed to be on. And One of you not on. Autocorrect >_>

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: wgeurts

[Raskolnikov]

Reviewing this either later today or monday.

[Murph]

Still haven't finished reading the thread through. I'll save my thoughts until that is completed. Most likely Monday.

Truth be told, I have plans for the weekend that involve being on the water and won't even be thinking about y'all

Enjoy yours

:icedbeverages:

[Raskolnikov]

away till sunday night or monday

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

KaladinStormblessed (0) -
AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Murph (0) -
Hoppic (0) - wgeurts
Raskolnikov (0) -
wgeurts (0) - Raskolnikov
RedCoyote (0) -

Not Voting: Hoppic, Murph, KaladinStormblessed, AlpacaAlpaca, RedCoyote

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Activity Notes: Rask is v/la until Monday
AlpacaAlpaca is being prodded

Day 2 deadline is Thursday June 16th at 11:15 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-06-16 23:15:00)

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Ok so briefly looking back I am starting to think that Kal is most likely scum here since, as we looked at before he has not posted a lot throughout the game which is ok I suppose for certain reasons but he says that he isn't posting a lot because he doesn't want to be seen as scum by mimicking what other people think since he has basically the same opinions as everyone else. He than says that he will try and post more before others post his same thoughts. However, aside from when directly asked he never really comes out and says anything, and it's not like he is gone when everyone is posting since in post 187 when Rask mentions he is in prod range he basically instantly responds. Multiple people has suggested that he post more and he has yet to do so, and aside from 2 posts all of his posts have been max like 2 sentences. In one of his more recent posts 521 he says that his thoughts haven't changed except slightly more of a scum read on Hoppic though he still thinks that he is town. I am seeing a lurking scum attempting to lay low and coast making an occasional post to dodge prods.

VOTE: KaladinStormblessed

I think that that other scum was for sure on the Seth wagon and the people on that wew (Simoyd, wgeurts, AlpacaAlpaca, Rask, Hoppic)
Counting out Sim RIP and myself, that means we have Wgeurts, Rask, and Hoppic and I am strong town reading both Wgeurts and Rask and so I am seeing Hoppic as scum buddies with Kal, but I am much more focused on Kal right now so thats where my vote goes.

[RedCoyote]

I'm very torn on 649. I actually appreciate that KS was honest with me in being forefront about still suspecting me moreso than Murph. That's fair and I welcome it, especially in direct response to my wanting him to post more. However, that post lacks content and he still lacks overall content. So, you know, there's something that is holding me back from moving him in either direction from my current weak town read.

wgeurts made a complaint in 645 that I was "posting half the player list". Well, yes and no, because when I say that it's reasonable to conclude there's one scum in {wgeurts, Ras, Alpaca, Hoppic}, the implication is there is also likely one scum in {RC, Murph, KS}. Further, that group is one I'd be very interested in focusing on today. This is why I was not in a rush to vote for Hoppic coming into today. At this point in time, and I am of course subject to change should circumstances change, I think we should lynch between Murph and KS.

Now, it's important for me to recognize that I would be in that group. I'm willing to take that liability on because I think my D1 is strong enough on the back of my refusal to call Seth scum. This is WIFOM, yes, but it's important to consider nonetheless.

Alternatively, we could debate the likelihood of both scum riding Seth yesterday. I find that less likely due to how generally well-received his wagon was throughout most of the day. wgeurts and Alpaca both joined the Seth wagon early and rode it for the entire day. Ras, Murph, Hoppic and KS were all effectively supporters in various degrees of strength. In other words, this was not a wagon that people were "going back and forth on". Additionally, given that we know Sim is town, we know at least in his case that that wagon was very attractive to one townie. Indeed, Sim's only vote yesterday was for Seth.

tl;dr = There should be one scum on and one scum off the Seth wagon. If you accept this, we should lynch either Murph or KS today.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Ok so briefly looking back I am starting to think that Kal is most likely scum here since, as we looked at before he has not posted a lot throughout the game which is ok I suppose for certain reasons but he says that he isn't posting a lot because he doesn't want to be seen as scum

that was just for my first few posts

by mimicking what other people think since he has basically the same opinions as everyone else. He than says that he will try and post more before others post his same thoughts. However, aside from when directly asked he never really comes out and says anything, and it's not like he is gone when everyone is posting since in post 187 when Rask mentions he is in prod range he basically instantly responds. Multiple people has suggested that he post more and he has yet to do so, and aside from 2 posts all of his posts have been max like 2 sentences. In one of his more recent posts 521 he says that his thoughts haven't changed except slightly more of a scum read on Hoppic though he still thinks that he is town. I am seeing a lurking scum attempting to lay low and coast making an occasional post to dodge prods.

VOTE: KaladinStormblessed

I think that that other scum was for sure on the Seth wagon and the people on that wew (Simoyd, wgeurts, AlpacaAlpaca, Rask, Hoppic)
Counting out Sim RIP and myself, that means we have Wgeurts, Rask, and Hoppic and I am strong town reading both Wgeurts and Rask and so I am seeing Hoppic as scum buddies with Kal, but I am much more focused on Kal right now so thats where my vote goes.

I'm naturally more of a lurker, and see little point in making a post that reiterates the same things I or others already said, and day one, there wasn't much I saw that others hadn't already observed. I'm not going to waste time BSing a wall of text of reasons when they're very similar to ones already stated.

I'm very torn on 649. I actually appreciate that KS was honest with me in being forefront about still suspecting me moreso than Murph. That's fair and I welcome it, especially in direct response to my wanting him to post more. However, that post lacks content and he still lacks overall content. So, you know, there's something that is holding me back from moving him in either direction from my current weak town read.

wgeurts made a complaint in 645 that I was "posting half the player list". Well, yes and no, because when I say that it's reasonable to conclude there's one scum in {wgeurts, Ras, Alpaca, Hoppic}, the implication is there is also likely one scum in {RC, Murph, KS}. Further, that group is one I'd be very interested in focusing on today. This is why I was not in a rush to vote for Hoppic coming into today. At this point in time, and I am of course subject to change should circumstances change, I think we should lynch between Murph and KS.

Now, it's important for me to recognize that I would be in that group. I'm willing to take that liability on because I think my D1 is strong enough on the back of my refusal to call Seth scum. This is WIFOM, yes, but it's important to consider nonetheless.

Alternatively, we could debate the likelihood of both scum riding Seth yesterday. I find that less likely due to how generally well-received his wagon was throughout most of the day. wgeurts and Alpaca both joined the Seth wagon early and rode it for the entire day. Ras, Murph, Hoppic and KS were all effectively supporters in various degrees of strength. In other words, this was not a wagon that people were "going back and forth on". Additionally, given that we know Sim is town, we know at least in his case that that wagon was very attractive to one townie. Indeed, Sim's only vote yesterday was for Seth.

tl;dr = There should be one scum on and one scum off the Seth wagon. If you accept this, we should lynch either Murph or KS today.

So basically you're on the same thought as me, seeing each other or murph as a probable scum.
as for the other group I've got more of a town read on wgeurts and rask, leaving the potential scum, in my view, in murph or RC, and hoppic or alpaca.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

I get not wanting to post your own opinion if it is just a duplicate of something already said, but you should still post what you think because its important to know where everyone stands. The attack on Seth was basically just a bunch of repeating what others said but people still made the posts to show their opinions on the matter and take a stance. Even if you just say I agree with this or that its a way for other people to gauge what your thinking cause otherwise only you know what you're thinking and that isn't helping anyone.

[Jackal711]

Prodding Murph, Hoppic, wgeurts

[Raskolnikov]

prodge
analysing tomorrow

[Hoppic]

Also quoting over half the player-list and saying there's likely one scum in there is a bit silly, as that's basic probability theory which I can show you if you insist. Also I literally stated I think both scum are on separate wagons as I stated I think KS and Hoppic are scum, Hoppic is the worst of the two

as I'll explain

and the one I'm more confident in seeing flip read.

Yes, please do explain.

[Hoppic]

Ok so briefly looking back I am starting to think that Kal is most likely scum here since, as we looked at before he has not posted a lot throughout the game which is ok I suppose for certain reasons but he says that he isn't posting a lot because he doesn't want to be seen as scum by mimicking what other people think since he has basically the same opinions as everyone else. He than says that he will try and post more before others post his same thoughts. However, aside from when directly asked he never really comes out and says anything, and it's not like he is gone when everyone is posting since in post 187 when Rask mentions he is in prod range he basically instantly responds. Multiple people has suggested that he post more and he has yet to do so, and aside from 2 posts all of his posts have been max like 2 sentences. In one of his more recent posts 521 he says that his thoughts haven't changed except slightly more of a scum read on Hoppic though he still thinks that he is town. I am seeing a lurking scum attempting to lay low and coast making an occasional post to dodge prods.

VOTE: KaladinStormblessed

I think that that other scum was for sure on the Seth wagon and the people on that wew (Simoyd, wgeurts, AlpacaAlpaca, Rask, Hoppic)
Counting out Sim RIP and myself, that means we have Wgeurts, Rask, and Hoppic

and I am strong town reading both Wgeurts and Rask

and so I am seeing Hoppic as scum buddies with Kal, but I am much more focused on Kal right now so thats where my vote goes.

Why do you have a strong town read on those two?

[Hoppic]

Ok so I see why you are saying and it makes sense for most players in this game however both wgeurts and Raskolnikov are experienced and may have planned on posting a many detailed posts to get people to think exactly what you are thinking now. If they were both newbies I could accept your logic but both have experience.

^here you seem to be saying that both wgeurts and rask are experienced enough to fake town effectively. Has your opinion changed?

[Hoppic]

I've got to go. I'll read more tomorrow.

[Hoppic]

tl;dr = There should be one scum on and one scum off the Seth wagon. If you accept this, we should lynch either Murph or KS today.

There's two possibilities: that redcoyote is scum or that he's town.

Suppose he's town. There were two wagons yesterday - on Seth and redcoyote, and if both were town that would be great for scum. I think they would much prefer to lynch redcoyote over Seth because of his experience, and so they would be unlikely to be voting for Seth if both are town.

There was me, Murphy, Kaladin and Raskolnikov on redcoyote. So strong FOS on those three IF he's town. But then Raskolnikov switched to Seth, so i guess he would be null. So it makes sense that RC wants to vote for Kaladin and Murphy right now.

[Hoppic]

On the other hand, suppose that redcoyote is scum. In that case, it's very likely that the other scum hopped on the Seth wagon, especially after redcoyote was at L1. Nobody did hop on then, so if he is scum, then the other scum was very likely already there which means that scum would be wgeurts or alpacaalpaca.

That's assuming that scum behave in ways I would expect them to, which is a big assumption.

Overall then, Raskolnikov is the only one null or town in both scenarios.

[Hoppic]

Although, I'm thinking, if Seth and redcoyote were both town then scum might just hang back and not vote, because it's good for them either way, and Raskolnikov was slow to vote and then he moved his vote around a lot. That makes sense as town or as scum.

[wgeurts]

@Varsoon, could you replace/remove this head of Gee Willikers?

I'm really sorry about this, I've got too much crap going on right now and it's stripped mafia of its joy. I usually play these games as an exciting challenge, enjoying them. However due to some IRL stuff they've become more of a burden. I've barely done anything here for a while, and this lack of contribution and engagement isn't how I want to play games. It was great having played with you all, some of you hold true potential and I hope to see you grow. Perhaps we shall face each other in the future once I've got some stuff resolved.

Once again, my apologies for this all.

[Jackal711]

@Mod, could you please replace me

I'm really sorry about this, I've got too much crap going on right now and it's stripped mafia of its joy. I usually play these games as an exciting challenge, enjoying them. However due to some IRL stuff they've become more of a burden. I've barely done anything here for a while, and this lack of contribution and engagement isn't how I want to play games. It was great having played with you all, some of you hold true potential and I hope to see you grow. Perhaps we shall face each other in the future once I've got some stuff resolved.

Once again, my apologies for this all.


I copied this from another game I'm replacing out of and altered it somewhat, forgot to change the enquiry.

Request noted. -Mod

[Murph]

Good morning

Preemptive prod post - *noted*

[Murph]

G'luck guerts

[AlpacaAlpaca]

It was good playing with you Wgeurts hopefully we shall play together again.

@Hoppic - I have been strong townreading Wgeurts since about mid way through the game because I think that his analyse was good and he was explaining his thoughts. His strong push on Seth could look suspicious since he turned up town but he had good reason to vote him and was backing it up with analyse of Seth's previous posts he wasn't just floundering trying to get a town mislynch. I have been strong town reading Rask since about the beginning of the game since I see him as trying to help other players. He is super laid back and helpful, he hasn't done anything scummy aside from switch votes but he explains why he does in post 597, his thoughts seem genuinely town to me.

Now after having said all of that I still believe it is possible for them to be effectively faking and I wouldn't be able to tell the difference since I don't really have the experience to tell but they are both experienced, But I am going to stick with my town reads on them because thats the vibe I've been getting off them the entire game. For more context in case you just ISO'd me that was a direct response to Seth's post 164 where Seth basically said that scum wouldn't be posting detailed analysis and that people posting huge walls were most likely town since this was a newbie game, but the 2 people he choose for the example were Rask and Wgeurts who are both SE's so if anyone was capable of faking town in this game it would be Wgeurts, Rask, and Coyote. Just something to keep in mind since they are all experienced

[Murph]

@ Red

You use Seth's town flip like a shield. Somehow, you being the most vocal and seemingly absolute that Seth was town, this exempts you from scrutiny ? Now you are using the same logic you employed against the others, that took the same view, while pushing your split vote theory agenda to dos them. How does that make any sense unless you are scum trying to control the direction of the next lynch ?

Your quote:

tl;dr = There should be one scum on and one scum off the Seth wagon. If you accept this, we should lynch either Murph or KS today.

If I accept this, then you are clearly in the spotlight as you were the most adamant about Seth's alignment. Something that we all debated ad nauseum D1. Yet somehow you were the only beacon of unwavering truth.

If I don't accept it, it would be because I still believe that both you and Kal are scum'mates.

Nothing you've said or done has changed my D1 thoughts on your play. The fact that you've defended Kal's lack of posting while highlighting Kal and I as the direction you'd lead for the D2 lynch tells me that I am a threat to you even though you know I'm town aligned.

Now, your D1 vote was a lone vote on Hop. I'm curious, Red, why you didn't push for Hop harder while Seth was being run up ? Since you :knew: Seth was town and all ?
And now on D2, Hop isn't even on your radar ? Why is that ? Good enough for your lone vote D1 and even a slight dos in your D2 manifesto ?

Your whole split vote premise relies on a theory based in supposition that isn't reliant on any facts. Yet you are willing to push your agenda sans facts or reads. Just a theory. And a weak one at that. Unless, you and/or Kal are the scum not voting Seth D1. Which would be so totally ironic it'd make me giggle.