Mini 1668 - Mafia in Bremen - Game Over!

[NotAnAxehole]

So... If Rune weighs more than a duck...
Then he's made of wood.
And therefore...
A WITCH!
BURN HIM!

VOTE: Rune

[NotAnAxehole]

LESS THAN A DUCK

[NotAnAxehole]

but in all seriousness,

Elyse is town,
Rune is town,
BBT is town,
Rev is town,
Jake is town,
Oversoul is town,
Palkia is town.

HaVoC is scum,
TDA is scum,
HI is scum.

[Elyse]

I know because I'm reading this game. In any mafia game the majority of people are town. Given the amount of people who are behaving completely irrationally, it stands to reason that at least some are town. I don't know anybody's alignment for sure except my own, but I can easily make educated guesses, and doing this doesn't make me scum.

For example:
Palkia is being annoying as fuck and is stupid, either as scum or town.
Hostile is contributing nothing and is a waste of space.
Axe has thrown out a bunch of dumb reads and hasn't contributed significantly even though I know he is capable of doing so.
BBT is making really dumb arguments without reading the game
We have a bunch of lurkers which is just dumb in any context.

*sigh*

@Rune
Is your townread on TDA serious? If so, why doesn't that apply to Havoc who has also been MIA?

[Rune]

I'm still on the Oversoul wagon. I have, several times, stated that I prefer to lynch Oversoul but that Havoc is a safer lynch for town. I now think it prudent to take that route.

[Rune]

@Elyse

1) Half serious
2) Because both Havoc's posts and his interactions with other players have been very scummy.

[Rune]

Umm, I answered 3, 4 and 5 before you even asked them.

I'll answer 6 when I've caught up.

First question, I guess it's because we're both town? Seems a dumb question.

As for 2, I thought HI was likely to be scum.

Instead of lying, and for the simpleminded, why don't you actually take 2 seconds to answer them fully. I'll wait until you've caught up.

[Rune]

but in all seriousness,

Elyse is town,
Rune is town,
BBT is town,
Rev is town,
Jake is town,
Oversoul is town,
Palkia is town.

HaVoC is scum,
TDA is scum,
HI is scum.

So far today, you've stated the Elyse and I are a scumteam, that Jake is scum, that you would only lynch Oversoul or be a hammer, and probably a few other things I don't remember off the top of my head.

Just saying.

[Rune]

@Everyone

Either give a reason not to vote Havoc, or vote and lynch Havoc.

[/ventingfrustration]

[NotAnAxehole]

but in all seriousness,

Elyse is town,
Rune is town,
BBT is town,
Rev is town,
Jake is town,
Oversoul is town,
Palkia is town.

HaVoC is scum,
TDA is scum,
HI is scum.

So far today, you've stated the Elyse and I are a scumteam, that Jake is scum, that you would only lynch Oversoul or be a hammer, and probably a few other things I don't remember off the top of my head.

Just saying.

Yeah, but this has been my legitimate read list since the start of D2, I was just stirring things up for my own amusement.

[Oversoul]

This is exciting

[Rune]

This is exciting

I'm not surprised you think so.

[NotAnAxehole]

This is exciting

I'm not surprised you think so.

This game is the opposite of exciting.

[Rune]

VOTE: Havoc

I probably won't be changing this until Oversoulsheeplordwhatever posts again and manages to convince me of his scumminess, largely because BBT's play bothers me and I think Havoc is pretty likely to flip scum.

VOTE: Havoc

I probably won't be changing this until Oversoulsheeplordwhatever posts again and manages to convince me of his scumminess, largely because BBT's play bothers me and I think Havoc is pretty likely to flip scum.

This is exciting

Took you 3 words.

Havoc is still the best lynch, but I am praying that one of the not-italian good guys sticks a fork in you N2.

[Oversoul]

@Rev why oversoul over havoc?

oversould suggested a policy lynch will be a town lynch. He knows something I don't.

I am reading Palkia as town.
You want to policy lynch Palkia.
Ergo, I think your policy lynch is a town lynch.

Noted that you admit Palkia's lynch is a policy lynch. So, I guess I was half right with the Palkia wagon.

---

INDEPENDENT FROM ABOVE
From a theory/general perspective, I think policy lynches are generally a bad thing. They are not designed to help town win the game. They are designed to teach a lesson to a player, to cull the site meta. For that reason, I think that policy lynches tend to be a lynch on town. Scum already have a lot to lose by doing something that will attract attention. Why would they do something that is grounds for a policy lynch?

Rune, why do you think Hostile is town?

Because I think other people are more likely to be scum. Which is why I've asked for a case/opinion against HI, which no one seems to be able or willing to provide. Odd. That being said, I'm not discounting the possibility of HI scum. But there is no reason to lynch anyone today who we are not sure is scum, and HI does not fit that criteria. Havoc fits it much better. In my opinion, you do as well.

@TDA post...........

@Havoc post.........

1. You never answered my question - where did I misquote you? You keep giving me general statements that I am not interpreting your posts correctly. I would like it if you want post by post to explain yourself, since we clearly have mixed signals?
2. Fair. My HI vote mainly stems from her quick vote on the Prolapsed Wagon. Up to that point, she had done very little scumhunting. She put her only two votes of that day on the two largest wagons. She keeps making prod dodge posts in the guise of random comments about the day.

I will admit, I found 626 to be particularly town. However, I do think we should apply pressure to HI so that she starts contributing. I do not like it when people like HI phone into the game and barely contribute any scumhunting.

Then again, maybe I should be contributing to a major wagon so the game moves forward.

If Oversoul is town, I think it is highly unlikely that Palkia is scum.

Why?

I appreciate the defense from AxeHole, but I'm not sure how I feel about him. He is all over the place with his posts. He did understand my opinion about the Palkia votes, which makes me think he is trying to think like I am. I don't see scum going through that trouble, especially since I have, admittedly, an odd way of thinking.

Re-read D2 at least. I sense some night-chat plan where scum will 'slowly' pressure HI while maintaining strong townreads on Palkia. I think Oversoul has done nothing but push a very specific agenda today, and I still think Arceus was very scummy. Both Axe and BBT are complicit in this and at least one of them is town being strung along.

Havoc is probably a safer lynch, but I think town will gain the most from lynching Oversoul.

Are you this paranoid in real life, Rune? This is moon beams logic, tinfoil territory, etc. This assumes so many things rather than settling for the most simple, logical explanation.

That being said this post is very town given those feelings though. Damn. I haven't seen this type of meta gamestate analysis in a long time.

Havoc was just replaced in another game. I don't know if he will continue to play in this game.

Excellent contribution.

Can anyone explain what the point of this post is?

There's nothing else of his either side of it for at least an hour. So he pops into the thread to tell us havoc is still site active. Then disappears again. Thanks oversoul. Really helpful.

There's a wagon on you building, have you got nothing to say about that?

I was informing everyone that the pressure on Havoc would likely be falling on deaf ears since Havoc is most likely going to be replaced. Did you mean should I address Rune and Axe's votes on me at this time? I'm confused.

I could be convinced either way, but I really think an Oversoul lynch tells us more about the game. I would also lynch Havoc in a heartbeat.
Rev, you, and Jake are my strongest townreads right now, and I think we should collectively decide where to vote.

What does my death tell you about the game state when I flip town?
Also, why do you have a town read on Jake?

529 - Oversoul, why HI?

Also, you never addressed my reasoning for why I thought Rev was scum. Can you do so now?

I answered this above in an answer to Rune.

I think she is scum coasting. I think her vote on the PB wagon was the most opportunistic.
Although, I do have to admit, if Palkia IS Antihero then my read of Palkia is very muddled as I think I remember Antihero being against players who do that sort of thing.

I'm going to hold off on answering your second question for the time being, I'll answer it before this Day is over though. Remind me if I haven't already addressed it by that point.

Because I think it is pretty obvious that Oversoul was either sending a message to scumbuddies to hammer or hoping to add to the PB bandwagon to detract from the Havoc wagon.

Again with the paranoia. This assumes so much.
How do you realign your reads when I flip town?

I'll vote havoc and maybe Axe

So, not really scumreading anyone then?

VOTE: Havoc

I probably won't be changing this until Oversoulsheeplordwhatever posts again and manages to convince me of his scumminess, largely because BBT's play bothers me and I think Havoc is pretty likely to flip scum.

I like the new moniker I have.
Although I have one question to ask...

Is it lonely in that dark tunnel?

but in all seriousness,

Elyse is town,
Rune is town,
BBT is town,
Rev is town,
Jake is town,
Oversoul is town,
Palkia is town.

HaVoC is scum,
TDA is scum,
HI is scum.

You should probably move your joke vote to account for your seriousness. Right now it is being wasted.

Rune, I would vote Havoc but I'm not going to wait for a replacement for a claim/reads, so it would likely be to outright lynch him.

I said it was exciting because people are saying interesting and controversial things and I am a contender for lynch.

[NotAnAxehole]

I was about to say tl;dr, then I caught the last bit of your post as I was typing. Still, tl;dr...

VOTE: havoc

Let's just quick lynch him, if he dies within the next 10 minutes, I'll be very pleased. I disagree with this game being exciting, it's not fun and the sooner it's over, the sooner we all get to go on without checking this thread every couple days.

[Rune]

That post deserves me going back and answering your questions more thoroughly, particularly where you have misquoted me - I'll do that soon.

I think it is odd that you quote my 648 and then multiple times in the same post ask what happens if you flip town. If you're town, I think it is very unlikely that Palkia is scum, because then your ridiculous defence of him would be outrageously detrimental to town, and Arceus started attacking me after I was pushing Dan, so I have some lingering associative reads there. I could build a better case than that by going through posts but I hope that this is sufficient to give you an idea as to what I'm thinking.

Additionally, if you flip town, I would then look at HI more seriously and also be extremely suspicious of Axe.

I mostly have a townread on Jake because, while he obviously isn't putting in huge efforts or going to great lengths to out scum, I think his reads are genuine and he isn't worth looking at when there are scummier options on the table, which inherently justify that attitude from him if town.

I'm ok with just lynching Havoc, no one has defended him and I'm pretty convinced scum are happy to bus him at this point.

[Rune]

Also, realize that I like to throw things out there to see what catches on, what gets ignored, and by whom - this should explain part of the paranoia you sense in my posts. Also, some is just paranoia. Which, no, doesn't extend outside of mafia. Within mafia, I think it's perfect reasonable. Especially when you're playing with a bunch of axeholes.

[Rune]

Also, the fact that we have no expectations from Havoc to come to his own defense is reason enough to say that we could get more information about the game by looking at a different lynch candidate.

[Oversoul]

Additionally, if you flip town, I would then look at HI more seriously and also be extremely suspicious of Axe.

This is mainly what I wanted to know about the fallout from my lynch. I wanted to know who you would reconsider, other than Palkia.
What is your current opinion on Rev? I don't understand his posting today. Steep drop in good content from yesterday.

re: Paranoia - understandable. I just find it interesting that you are already going to such great lengths to begin building a scum team with me at the center. It assumes that I am a good scum player (I'm not) and the team would defer to my judgment (probably wouldn't), and it just flat out assumes that I am scum (I'm not). Back when I played a lot of games I would construct teams based on a single person, watching their interactions with those people, etc. Unfortunately, more often than not I was wrong about the central person that I used to anchor my reads, so I would be dejected with the game and my ability and just play shitty once that person flipped town or something.

In a way, I did that with PB and Elyse. I was really sure that PB was scum and thought that Elyse had cold feet and couldn't find it in herself to bus him. That is partly why I completely dropped the Elyse scum read today. I felt it was better to go after something different that caught my eye (HI) to help me readjust.

That said, Elyse's posts today are still leaving me with something to be desired.

pedit:

That is exactly my point by saying Havoc is probably going to be replaced

[Nikanor]

HaVoC and TheDudeAbides have been prodded.

[Rune]

I'm not tunnelling on you nearly so much as you seem to think, though my posts certainly would indicate that. - it's simply the case I am most pushing forward as you are the greatest common denominator in a lot of my reads. I am considering a number of other possibilities, and I don't actually assume that you are necessarily the centre of the scum team or that you are either a great or poor player (I do think you are intentionally selling yourself short though). I just think your lynch would very likely help the town a lot, because you have strong (scummy) associations with a lot of players. I believe you'd flip scum but even if you flipped town I think that would help clear the air.

My current opinion on Rev is that he is almost certainly town. If he is scum, then I am mad at all the useless townies who acted scummy or who lurked enough to let him get by. He would have to have a huge obvious slip for me to believe that he is not town at this point, there are simply too many other likely scum.

The argument against PB is shit given RC's defence of him. That kind of defence should never be made from a townie to scum, which is why I really despise all of the strong unexplainable townreads in this game, particularly on Palkia. If anyone was going to be lynched for PB's posts, it should have been RC.

As for Elyse, I don't disagree. I think she feels like she doesn't need to do much this game because it seems obvious who some of the scum are. I can't fault her for that when I agree.

[TheReverend]

My current opinion on Rev is that he is almost certainly town. If he is scum, then I am mad at all the useless townies who acted scummy or who lurked enough to let him get by.

I'm having a really difficult time getting into rune's head here.

How does the scumminess or lurkiness of others reflect my towniness? Why am I such a strong town read if it's based on what other people are posting?

[TheReverend]

So... If Rune weighs more than a duck...
Then he's made of wood.
And therefore...
A WITCH!
BURN HIM!

VOTE: Rune

If there's one thing sadder than quoting Python, it's quoting Python badly.

[Rune]

Your posts seem extremely town to me. Additionally, The more likely I think certain people are to be scum, the more likely it is, from my perspective, that the remaining people are town. Enough people are playing in a way that makese suspicious of them while st this point you aren't.