Mini Theme 2259: Superfight Mafia!

[jjh927]

It's EXTREMELY important that the game as a whole makes a decision on me, you, and Flea in this game phase

This isn't a decision we can't go back on, but it determines optimal play

[Faerie Mages]

Mage: no it isn't. unless you and flea are scum, there is absolutely no reason to eliminate in the survived fighters today. if we eliminate in the pool that have fought and the player flips town, no matter how many scum are left in the four who haven't fought, scum will put two town up in order to try for a perfect win tomorrow.
Faerie: earlier someone said that scum can always put town against town tonight and we finally figured out why ^_^
Mage: the optimal play is to figure out which of the four is scum and eliminate correctly today or narrow the pool at the worst. if both scum are in the pool of four, we force scum to have to fight tonight and up our chances of scum dying.
Faerie: we think that the faerie energy is pretty heavy and fae isn't really trying at all to get townreads. fae feels more like a mislim than caught scum.

[jjh927]

There is no value in associatives at this point in the game in this setup because of the way we can guide kills into a larger than normal POE. We can also play with probabilities. If we as a whole decided that surely both remaining scum must be within me, faerie, flea, and resolved to lim all 3 of us one after the other... then we would still have a 50/50 of winning the game if that poe only contained one scum. We can do bigger POEs than would normally be possible with 3 elims because the scumkill is in a very limited pool and due to the mechanic may also kill scum for us

[jjh927]

If we lim in the people that have not fought yet, we widen the pool for scumkills in two nights

[jjh927]

Basically, if we do this right then the literal worst case scenario should be a 50/50, and if we actually think about the circumstances here and pick a strategy then it'll have better odds than that purely probabilistically and in practice even better because we will have chosen a path according to our reads which should be above random if you are not a clown

Hence why I am pushing for people to think now

[Roden]

We can also, you know, play mafia and scum hunt.

[jjh927]

Yes I am suggesting you do that please read the words I am saying

[jjh927]

The point is that if you scumhunt now and place specific people then we will massively increase our odds of winning than if we just go on without a plan

[Roden]

JJH and Faerie are 100% locktown, scum actively tried to kill both of them. Flea isn't 100% locktown but that's why we scum hunt. I'm voting Galron because Dwlee and NM spewed that they weren't aligned. Galron's reaction to my vote was scum indicative so I'm fine with keeping my vote there.

[jjh927]

I don't know why people are opposing this

I am saying that at this point in the game
if you make a POE that includes like half the people in the game
and you are a player in the game, so you only need like 2 townreads
you could create a plan that works based on that POE and wins 100% of the time if scum are within it, or 50% of the time even if you're wrong

[Jingle]

Vote Count 4.1

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to send someone to take vengeance on the filthy cat killers.

Galron (3 votes til death): Roden
Faerie Mages (3 votes til death): Galron
Roden (4 votes til death):
Not_Mafia (4 votes til death):
Dwlee99 (4 votes til death):
jjh927 (4 votes til death):
Flea The Magician (4 votes til death):

Deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2022-02-18 01:00:00).

[Roden]

I think I just did that? I have a PoE of three people, we kill one today then the other dies tonight in a fight. If both scum don't flip one after the other but we still get at least one red flip, then we can vote out the last one and win. And I kinda prefer to do this while we're both still in the game and have a solid town core.

Idk I think we're just saying the same thing here.

[Roden]

I do agree that Faerie should state their town case on Flea, since that's the only town read I have that I haven't locked in yet.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Galron

[Faerie Mages]

Eh I was already on you apparently.

brains are fun.
VOTE: Enchant

Faerie: This was the post from flea that pinged town the most to us. It lead to an 'aha, there the faerie is' moment.

[Flea The Magician]

Eugh meds have been screwing me over.

I'm confident our survivors are all town on play. Faerie are more chaotic than me and making more sense than me, that's frankly impressive.

I honestly feel the 4 pool is the better shot currently. NM - like it or not - is a town hazard, I can't read them, I leave that for someone else.
Enchant is one to be feared and respected. WIM tell can apply there though. Roden and Galron I'll need to look at once I'm more in my head.

[Dwlee99]

Where is Enchant

[Dwlee99]

Oh right y'all limmed them against my wishes

[Not_Mafia]

I can't read them

That sounds like a you problem

[jjh927]

I think the secret to reading NM is that if you give NM the space to troll and lolhammer and then that is the only thing he does in the whole game over multiple day phases then he is scum

[jjh927]

But yes, enchant has been dead for a while. Dwlee is the player you did not mention

[Roden]

I think the secret to reading NM is that if you give NM the space to troll and lolhammer and then that is the only thing he does in the whole game over multiple day phases then he is scum

I've seen him do that as town if he isn't invested in the game, unfortunately. And I've seen him put in effort as scum.

[Roden]

JJH what's your read on Galron? What about me, Flea, and Faerie?

[Flea The Magician]

Where is Enchant

Oh right y'all limmed them against my wishes

ok smart arse -.-;

But yes, enchant has been dead for a while. Dwlee is the player you did not mention

Dwlee recently broke my existing tells on them, from what I know they low effort more as town

[jjh927]

JJH what's your read on Galron? What about me, Flea, and Faerie?

You are absolutely locktown
Galron is town

Leaning scum on Flea and Faerie