So...we're assuming, at this point: three groupscum and one traitor.
The traitor, by necessity, could not have voted Not Chara, Titus, or me. They don't know how scum are voting, so they cannot coordinate a vote. Most likely, they submit a no-vote, identical to the worthless votes in analysis.
By necessity, one groupscum would also be in that group.
Two scum players could coordinate their votes onto a player in the top three, but only one of them would be able to claim being there; the other would be forced to claim none.
This means:
Exactly one scum in:
RR/Skybird/Almost50/NotChara/farside22/kraska/Xkfyu/grapes.
(NOTE: two becomes possible if, and ONLY if, there's four groupscum.)
I have thoughts on both groups, and I do need to cross-reference this with my notes on my analysis.
But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)
The second group is more tricky. User feedback would be appreciated. For instance, this is largely where a player like, saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, Titus comes in.
In [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8394984#p8394984]post 7724[/url], mastin2 wrote:Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.
In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.
In post 7724, mastin2 wrote:Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.
In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.
Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
In post 7727, Reasonably Rational wrote:Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
-Cerb
Yeah.
3
buddies.
That'd require Not Chara + 3 scumbuddies.
But we have SirCakez dead. (5 total groupscum.)
And we're assuming a traitor.
So unless you think either (1) the traitor's been recruited, (2) the scum coordinated with the traitor, (3) there is no traitor and they just have five groupscum, or (4) there is a traitor and six total scum (five group, plus traitor), then, yeah.
Not Chara is town.
I mean, sure.
It does require a few assumptions here.
But do you believe any of the above are true, Cerb? (I definitely don't believe in 2, general consensus is that it's not 3, so that leaves 1 or 4.)
If you are town, Titus is not the player I would say this for.
Because, uh, yeah.
I want to think you are scum so badly for this.
Really, I do.
I really, really do.
Because my life would be SO much simpler if the person who has been obstructing us the whole. fucking. game. Was just scum, rather than town in the way.
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally, I do.
And, dammit! There's lots of good reasons for you to be scum!
There's a lot of things which make you look incredibly bad and I SO want you to be scum because of them.
But no matter how hard I try.
I just can't see myself thinking you're actually scum.
Something tells me you're just another mislynch in the making, that was offered on a silver platter to the scum.
I'll be looking at the wagon on you (which I caught there being) when I get to the relevant point, and crossreferencing it with my notes on SirCakez and Mathblade. (Spoiler alert: scum bussed SirCakez HARD. I'd have to check my notes, but I
believe
there's a more even spread in regards to Mathblade, with a
slight
lean towards them being off the wagon.)
What do you want from me?
I'm not joking.
Am I supposed just sit there, cave into Titus demands while the beach event is going on and not look at her like she is taking it personal?
Do I avoid the thread completely and see Titus spam this game saying I'm scum withholding info and need to be lynched like she did to me day 2?
Please let me know how much attitude I'm supposed to put up with before I am aloud to tell someone to stuff it.
'Cause, uh, yeah.
Removed the names which're town. Strike = strongly believe to be town but not absolutely sure; underline = weakly believe to be town as a townread but could be convinced otherwise.
I'm dead serious about Magna by the way: if anyone has
anything
they'd like to share about him which would make me feel better (aside from him being in the KTS slot), I'd love to have it so that I could actually write him off and not bother getting a read on him.
'Cause, uh, yeah. As-is. He's someone I desperately want to be alignment confirmed one way or another.
I have those three listed on my scum list along with Shiro.
Before someone says I'm lying that can be confirmed by nc.
In post 6979, Firebringer wrote:What I don't get is why we are lynching you over scum hiding among the lurkers/sheep
^This is pretty much my thoughts on the matter.
farside looks really bad.
I don't think she's scum.
I want to lynch scum.
If farside has a third party wincon that fucks over the town, I won't blame farside, nor will I blame the town for letting it happen, nor will I blame the scum for letting it happen. I will write a very fucking long rant to Varsoon about not learning his damn lesson.
If farside has a third party wincon that doesn't fuck the town over...why bother?
If farside IS town...why bother?
It's only if farside is scum that we bother.
And I don't believe she is.
It doesn't hurt the town.
You get one less town player in the game, but apparently that's not an issue here.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
Oh, forgot to post what I was actually here for.
Going into the night, I had a POE pool which looked something like this:
kraskaesque/SnarkySnowman/DrippingGoofball/randomidget/Not Chara/Shadow_step, in approximately that order but with lots of guesswork involved.
kraskaesque/SnarkySnowman are my top scumreads. As in, they're strongly, STRONGLY read as scum. kraskaesque slightly more than SnarkySnowman, but both look bad. By both my analysis, and by an overlook of their play. (Iso them, you'll see some of what I'm getting at.)
I do have scumreads on both DGB and randomidget at this point, but not absolute ones like kraska/SnarkySnowman.
Not Chara was similar, except opposite: could have been scum, but I didn't feel like it was.
Shadow_step I just don't have a read on either way, but there's nothing which made him remove him.
This was prior to MoI's posting, of course. He'd be at the Shadow_step level right now. (But could be removed again.) I'd remove Not Chara from this list and am comfortable calling it town.
But, yes, this means I have reasons to remove grapes, Creature, Shiro, TFL, Firebringer, McMenno, farside, Xkfyu, Skybird, Almost50, and RR.
I'm running short on time at the moment. I might not be able to finish my catch-up before leaving, yet alone, go into the analysis, so in the mean time, if you have questions/feedback, just say so and I'll give my response when I'm able to.
My thoughts are that if we get a scum flip in the top half of my pile, we've got a BUNDLELOAD of conftown players.
My further thoughts are that farside is not that player.
My thoughts, therefore, are...
VOTE: kraskaesque.
When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof), some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.
I don't intend to leave the words vague on this one; I do intend to back it up with quotes on what I'm seeing, but I AM short on time so for now, you'll have to either take my word for it or go iso them yourself and see if you can figure out what I mean by this. And also, iso the mod and see where kraskaesque falls on key wagons. (Keep also in mind: SirCakez was bussed. Heavily. He has at least two scum on his wagon, if not three. Proof?
Where's his counterwagon?
If scum made an effort to save SirCakez, why is there no actual counterwagon? They gave up on him at some point, which means at some point...they started bussing.)
In post 7727, Reasonably Rational wrote:Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
-Cerb
Yeah.
3
buddies.
That'd require Not Chara + 3 scumbuddies.
But we have SirCakez dead. (5 total groupscum.)
And we're assuming a traitor.
So unless you think either (1) the traitor's been recruited, (2) the scum coordinated with the traitor, (3) there is no traitor and they just have five groupscum, or (4) there is a traitor and six total scum (five group, plus traitor), then, yeah.
Not Chara is town.
I mean, sure.
It does require a few assumptions here.
But do you believe any of the above are true, Cerb? (I definitely don't believe in 2, general consensus is that it's not 3, so that leaves 1 or 4.)
If not, Not Chara must be town.
1 can't be assumed to be untrue, 2 seems basically impossible without 1 happening, the traitor and a member of the scum team would have needed to luck into allying one another AND been confident enough that they were both scum to claim and plot during the freeze, 3 seems improbable, the jaspar check doesn't make much sense if she isn't a traitor(barring some special bonus for removing her/having her still alive in the game, but she doesn't make sense as town in any way), and 4 isn't unreasonable. I mean, it's a 25 player game. Why would 5.5 scum not work in single ball?
In post 7422, Reasonably Rational wrote:Can you explain why mastin claimed YOU were the source of the kc kill? She said it was the same source as rhe fb thing, which you've claimed....but you say it was scum, not you.
Same ability, different application, basically.
Up to Yume what to disclose about it, but we were both speaking truthfully.
You can see the difference in the wording Varsoon uses: Firebringer was removed from the game.
Klingoncelt wasn't.
In post 7706, Titus wrote:I am out for awhile in a bit, so please feel free to take yor time to explain like the whole post please. I just cannot see your perspective.
mastina stubbornness, the kind I don't get often.
A player who has no objective reason to be town, but subjectively I think is.
Especially given the statistics and my reads. (I.e. scumreading Kraskaesque, townreading farside.)
In post 7709, Titus wrote:I am pretty sure there's a boatload of scum in those that didn't vote the top three choices. Seems deliberate.
Yes it is.
There can be a MAXIMUM of one scum in those who voted the top three choices. Maximum.
The rest, by necessity, are therefore spread among those that didn't.
How many players this game have a third party wincon, Cerb?
Ask yourself that.
Then factor in that, no matter how town these third party wincons are,
they are still not town
. From a strictly-speaking technical perspective.
Yeah, in play, they might be. (For instance, the URS.) But from a strictly speaking, balancing, perspective, they aren't.
Umm. I do believe said balancing should be done based on how said roles would actually work in play.
I seem to recall certain defenses you've made regarding your own setups justifying choices because you expected certain roles to play out in certain ways.
IF we assume town compatible win cons for those third parties, that essentially makes them a large masonry, which doesn't exactly make 5.5 scum LESS likely.
I mean, I see your point, I do. But I don't think in practice that's how it would actually be balanced.
Of course, if their win cons aren't aren't benign as we believe they are, then yes, you're right, that many scum seems untenable.
In post 7709, Titus wrote:I am pretty sure there's a boatload of scum in those that didn't vote the top three choices. Seems deliberate.
Yes it is.
There can be a MAXIMUM of one scum in those who voted the top three choices. Maximum.
The rest, by necessity, are therefore spread among those that didn't.
And there, I need your feedback.
I think there could maybe be two hidden in there, but I am not town reading the same group you are, so it could be that the difference in our view is in that group of players. Which is fine really. That's not a huge PoE pool if it comes to it.
In post 7723, mastin2 wrote:But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)
So you come back here to try and sell a case on me and snarky lol gtfo
In post 7732, mastin2 wrote:When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof),
some hypocrisy on their part
, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.
First things first, I don't think our third party is entirely 3rd party. Or namely in plain English, I think there's a fakeclaimer or two in the third party.
I think there's lots of scum in the no claimers, maybe all of them.
From a logical perspective no more than three counted voters can be scum. We're better off ignoring the players that had their vote count unless obvious scum like Farside.
I concur with Not Chara being town for now. I wouldn't go conftown by any stretch though. Supposing even town Farside floating the plan, it's not like Nc couldn't use that with her buddies. It is smart.
Scum in the no claimers suggests at least 1 scum focused more on interactions and mechanics than usual. There's only a few names I think of that fit that bill. Mol is one of them.
I reach a much different conclusion based on the current string of events though but I am going to take time to have that run its course?
Lack of kills for strong VCA but I don't like the picture supposing NC town.
Mechanically, Skybird is probably scum although Yume doesn't want to hear that. Two players with events that link to Steven? Mod did say good fakes as well.
I am looking at Farside/shadow/Skybird/third party/tactician (although tactical could work as third party).
I think MoI is town though. I wouldn't oppose copping them since I like agreement w my townreads. Skybird is also an excellent choice in that regard.
Can't argue with that. I don't really know, how to prove my point that far really doesn't look like scum. It makes no sense to me. Her strong stances, her bias towards me, it just doesn't seem like scum moves. Her flavour and roles support me as well.
People are just wasting time on her wagon. Now Dgb on the other hand who steals votes. Now that is a scummy role.
Oh btw, why did yume reveal, bored ti search everything I missed rifht now. Like ok I think everyone knew it for some time (at least I assumed it and it seems I was correct about sky AND her thing being stevonie) but yea.
Btw @varsoon
BRILLIANT
Mastin can't talk in her alliances bevause centi cannot talk. Fucking brilliant. Dunno if it SS brilliant as Kevin being a noisy roleblocker bevause he was cutting people off but damn
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
About me:
I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
In post 7745, kraskaesque wrote:So you come back here to try and sell a case on me and snarky lol gtfo
In post 7732, mastin2 wrote:When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof),
some hypocrisy on their part
, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.
explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" part
Why are you getting so defensive over a single vote ?
