Mini 1458 - Don't Feed the Bears! - GAME OVER

[Baby Spice]

It's just the mini games have worked out.

Of the first wagon to get to four votes in a mini, only about 5% of them have two scum on them.

Invalidated for me of course since I could have voted deliberately to make it happen for towniness, and not valid if TS was a traitor since N64 wouldn't have known and not had the scum tendency to not follow scum buddies onto a wagon.

As I said, unlikely.

[Thor665]

95% of numbers on Mafiascum.net are rectally extracted.

[Baby Spice]

Not that one, though I will admit the sample size could have been larger.

[pappums rat]

pappums rat, give us your scum read. At this point I don't care if it's 'researched' or not. Or a town read. Or anything. I know you didn't have time as you stated, but surely you have some ideas.

Baby Spice is my pick for scum at this point without having done my research yet. You are confirmed town, and I have seen town motivation in Thor's posting and had a townread on TUNNELSNAKES. I have tomorrow off so I will get this done then. Im sorry for not contributing my share to this game, I honestly shouldn't have joined in the first place.

[pappums rat]

After spending the last hour and a half or so going through people's ISOs and trying to connect their ISO posts with what was going on in the game at the time, the words quickly started blending into each other and I had to read most of them several times to understand them properly. That said, I don't have a case to make. I couldn't find any posts in particular that grabbed my attention that led to my scumread on BS, it is pretty much all gut at this point. Still have townreads on Thor and PA. I will answer any questions anyone has, but my case-pushing days of this game are over I think. Im sorry I couldn't have done more to help. I think that if you look at the AJ/N64/HD situation that played out you will see that I am town and will come to the right decision.

Vote: Baby Spice

[Thor665]

I think that if you look at the AJ/N64/HD situation that played out you will see that I am town and will come to the right decision.

What about them?

Because I kinda want to lynch you.
And by 'kinda' I mean 'really, really, really, with a cherry on top'.

[pappums rat]

If I had been scum I could have easily jumped on board the HD wagon which was being pushed by a few people and could have gotten our cop lynched instead of my own scumbuddy, thereby saving a NK for another target and eliminating the possibility of him targeting myself or N64Lord. I was also the first to suggest that Jemina was pulling a scum gambit to bus her buddy for near-confirmed status, which, once again would be going directly against the scumteam's interests. Calling me scum would mean that I would have been powerbussing both my partners right from the start of Day 2, leaving me to fend for myself up to LYLO. That's fucking dumb.

[Thor665]

BS avoided the HD wagon too though, didn't she?

[Thor665]

Was there even a HD wagon?

[Baby Spice]

Not that I recall.

[penguin_alien]

A couple people, maybe Mr_Ree, definitely TUNNELSNAKES, voted HD at different times. But I don't think it was ever going to be a wagon. All serious discussiin was whether to lynch AJ or N64.

[pappums rat]

Yes, there was never a cohesive wagon that developed on HD but if I had been scum I could have bolstered a wagon on him with the other few who did want to lynch him and delay my scumbuddies lynch(es) that would have likely come afterwards. That way I could have gotten the cop lynched instead of a scumbuddy and have saved that NK for someone else, forcing town to lynch AJ the next day and probably N64Lord the day after that. That would have been the way to go as scum but I supported the lynches of both flipped scum in this game, and to have done that out of the gate, as I have stated, would have caused a needless obstacle to overcome (surviving alone to MYLO or LYLO and hoping for the best).

[Thor665]

Same argument: Baby Spice could have started a HD wagon, because he didn't he is town.
Discuss.

[pappums rat]

Baby Spice didn't go full out on AJ and N64Lord and push both of their lynches once she saw what was going on between them, now did she? No, that was me. I don't even know why Im arguing with you two anymore, you both have your tunnelvision on in full effect and no reasoned argument is going to wake you up. Im tired of this bullshit, just get it over with already.

[penguin_alien]

pappums rat, why not find TUNNELSNAKES-Thor665 scummy for having actually voted HD post-claim?

What does make some sense is that whoever the last scum is would have known once HD claimed a result on AJ that both AJ and N64 were ultimately screwed. Especially if AJ went down, as in the end even without N64's self-target claim, I don't see us buying that scum-AJ went 1v1 with a townie. Even a JK townie. If N64 goes down, we lynch through HD and AJ.

So we have Baby Spice sticking with N64, pappums rat with AJ, and TUNNELSNAKES all over the place. I could see pappums rat trying to get in good with town by going with AJ to set up the next lynch, except his play since then hasn't been committed to being super-townie. The question is, say you're scum and your teammates have committed to a bus, but a town PR has basically ensured they're both going to be lynched before LyLo. After the appropriate freak-out, what's the play?

[penguin_alien]

pappums rat, why didn't you crumb in your mass claim post? Worst that happens is that scum find it, take a shot at you, and spare us a kill. Sure, there would have been some question of whether you were faking, but that would have left us with two chances to kill scum instead of one.

[pappums rat]

pappums rat, why not find TUNNELSNAKES-Thor665 scummy for having actually voted HD post-claim?

Confirmation bias I suppose. I had a townread on TUNNELSNAKES for the whole beginning of the game and I could see his reasoning as being somewhat legitimate for going for HD. It was obviously wrong, but I could see why he would think the way he did.

The question is, say you're scum and your teammates have committed to a bus, but a town PR has basically ensured they're both going to be lynched before LyLo. After the appropriate freak-out, what's the play?

Try to get the cop lynched. Saves a NK and creates an extra mislynch. The supposed towncred you could get from bussing both parters is outweighed by the value of keeping them both alive for another day.

pappums rat, why didn't you crumb in your mass claim post?

I simply didn't think to do so. The few times I did breadcrumb anything in games it was completely pointless to do so because I was bad at it, so breadcrumbing is just not something I do.

[Baby Spice]

Unvote

I suppose if anyone it was TS who pushed the HD wagon, such as it was.

[Thor665]

@BS - you're supposed to do something with that revelation. Either call me scum and vote me, or rule it out and keep voting Pappums. You went neutral and basically are standing by - why?

[Baby Spice]

Difference between phone posting, and getting to a computer to actually look up the posts I'm trying to remember, and with that slight doubt raised by the HD wagon/vote thing I didn't want to leave a vote hanging.


Been rereading a few things, and it's only TS that really pushes for a HD lynch. In fact it was only one head of TS that did, and it kinda reads a bit personal like. Personal with a tin foil hat.

After the appropriate freak-out, what's the play?

What I see happening wrt the whole Jemina/N64Lord/HD thing is that Jemina was going for a gambit where she was going to claim a result on her scumbuddy, N64Lord, who she may have seen as a weak link in the scumteam and an acceptable sacrifice to throw to the wolves in exchange for near-cleared status. However, she didn't plan on there being another investigative role, particularly one that had targeted her last night and had came back with a guilty verdict.

Insider analysis perhaps.
Certainly the scum play is not likely to try and lynch HD, especially knowing you are likely to have an RB left.
For that matter it would be to make sure that AJ was lynched so that you had the RB left.

Which drags me back to Pappams, since TS seemed to be voting, well everyone.

Long and short. Pushing for a HD lynch would not be a good scum play. Kinda obvious when HD flips, and they could have RB'ed/NK'ed him.
Scum play would be to make sure AJ was the lynch to leave the scum PR in play in N64

[Yates]

Do we need a vote count or are we good?

[Thor665]

Vote: Pappums Rat

Baby Spice has me hoodwinked if that slot is scum.

[Yates]

Official Vote Count 5.1

Baby Spice - pappums rat
pappums rat - Thor

Not voting: Penguin_Alien, Baby Spice


With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2013-07-29 09:30:00)

[penguin_alien]

Well, let's see if Baby Spice has duped us here.

VOTE: pappums rat

[Baby Spice]

Vote Papams Rat