Open 584: White Flag (Day 4)

[Alchemist21]

@GC, the Droog-Hiraki interaction to me looks like a serious personality clash rather than Scum-Scum distancing. Droog likes to distance from his scumbuddies, but that being said, I think he would have pushed Prawneater harder than he did early D1 if they were scum together. Also, FWIW I remember thinking Hiraki's D2 play was better than his D1 play too. Prawn's actions surrounding the Hiraki lynch still bother me a bit, particularly how he voted a Townread and it happened to come up scum, but looking around I don't see him forming a viable scumpair with any other player at this point.

[Green Crayons]

Prawn's actions surrounding the Hiraki lynch still bother me a bit, particularly how he voted a Townread and it happened to come up scum

I thought that was a pretty solid suspicion of yours except for the fact that Hiraki flipped scum. So, I have the exact opposite reaction of you as to how things turned out.

As for droog distancing, why doesn't droog's consistent "your scummy" D1 statements toward Hiraki qualify? Particularly when, when push came to shove, droog then unvoted Hiraki on D2?

[Green Crayons]

I ask because I have never seen droog-scum in action. I don't know how that play doesn't fit distancing, droog-style or otherwise.

[Alchemist21]

Because I don't think Droog would have given up chase on Hiraki that easily. I've even seen a game where he and his scumbuddy went hard at each other in a 2-player scumteam all the way to endgame. Plus, why distance from Hiraki and not Prawn if he's scumbuddies to both? He called out Prawn early on, but then soon after his focus switched to Hiraki and it never went back to Prawn. I think scumDroog would make serious attempts to distance from both scumbuddies here and that he wouldn't have stopped pushing Hiraki until the wagon looked more serious than having 3/7 votes.

[Green Crayons]

I'm not convinced Narrow AND prawn are scum. I do think that one of them is. (I realize that this leaves the potential for one of my townreads to be wrong.)

That said, you're seriously asking why scum wouldn't act identically with respect to both of their buddies? I don't think scum is more or less likely to treat buddies differently, but the flip side of that is that there's no reason to think that scum is more or less likely to treat buddies the same.

(shrug) And I guess we just disagree on droog/Hiraki interactions.

[hi im Yakko]

I'm definitely now looking at WW. I thought he was just annoying at first. I'm also looking at alchemist because of their interaction.

@everyone have you played with prawn before? has he ever town read his scum buddies? I would look it up but I'm kinda lazy.

Lia what do you think of narrows first post?

[Alchemist21]

@GC, Genrally, scum probably wouldn't treat their buddies the same. Droog, on the other hand, would do that IMO. I also remember a game where he was in a 3-man scumteam and didn't hardlush either until one of them died, then he hardpushed the remaining buddy. I figure the white flag mechanic would have made him hardpush both buddies early on in case one flipped.

We're in the day before lylo. It's time to start forming feasible scumpairs and pushing them rather than "this or that" pairs. If you can't see a player being scum with Hiraki and one other player, then they probably aren't scum.

[Whomping Willow]

If you're opposed to hunting off the prawn counterwagon from day 2, why? If both scum bussed then show me what you think looks like a bus

[Whomping Willow]

That's directed at everyone

[Green Crayons]

Votecount 2.8

Hiraki

: 6 - Lia, prawneater,

randomidget

, Whomping Willow, hi im Yakko,

Flubbernugget

(L-0)

prawneater

: 4 -

texcat

, Albert B. Rampage,

Hiraki

, Alchemist21 (L-2)

Not voting

: 1 - droog.

So, thinking it over, I see four scenarios.

1. Two scum bussed Hiraki.

Hiraki-scum vote: prawn-town
Hiraki-bussing-scum 1 vote: Hiraki-scum
Hiraki-bussing-scum 2 vote: Hiraki-scum

In this scenario, two of Lia, WW, and Yakko would be scum. I am reading each of them to be town. I can accept that maybe one of my reads is wrong. I am highly doubtful that two of my scumreads are wrong. I therefore don't think that this scenario happened.

2. All three scum did not vote Hiraki.

Hiraki-scum vote: prawn-town
Non-Hiraki-voting-scum 1 vote: prawn-town or no vote
Non-Hiraki-voting-scum 2 vote: prawn-town or no vote

I mean, this scenario is unlikely just because of the brazen "nobody vote for scum" angle. It would also mean that 2/3 of GC, Alchemist, and Narrow are scum. The Hirkai-scum wagon NKs are the only thing that supports that, but I know that I'm not scum and I really don't think Alchemist is either. If Narrow is scum, then I could see Alchemist defense of the slot being scum motivated, but I have nothing at the moment to differentiate that theory from the scenario of Alchemist-town thinking the slot is town.

3. Scum were D1 counterwagons, third scum picked one or stayed off.

Hiraki-scum vote: prawn-scum
prawn-scum vote: Hiraki-scum
third-scum vote: either buddy or no vote

In this scenario, prawn is scum with Hiraki. Third scum had to either bus or not vote either buddy.

I really, really want this to be the case, because this would perfectly match my prawn-scum and Narrow-scum hypothesis. On reviewing prawn's Post 630 and Post 632 vote of Hiraki, though, I just don't see it. As of the VC in Post 585 (I didn't see any vote changes on a quick skim from 585 to 630), prawn had the option of joining either Hiraki, WW, or ABR, who each had two votes on him. There is, of course, the "I'm bussing my partner to get towncred" strategy, but I'm not feeling it here. prawn had three viable options, and voting WW or ABR over Hiraki would not really have netted prawn suspicion except

maybe

down the line - and, in any event, the smarter play would have been to push the momentum on a non-scum buddy.

I therefore begrudgingly admit that this is not a likely scenario.

4. One scum bussed Hiraki, one scum voted prawn-town (as counterwagon to Hiraki) or simply did not vote (because didn't want to stake a claim).

Hiraki-scum vote: prawn-town
Hiraki-bussing-scum vote: Hiraki-scum
prawn-voting-scum vote: prawn-town or not voting

In this scenario, either myself, Alchemist, or Narrow/droog is scum. I know I am not scum. After rereading the game and reviewing Alchemist's ISO, I don't think he's scum either. Narrow is my biggest scumspect for reasons previously stated.

@Alchemist:

Who would be Narrow's buddy? I don't know. droog did some minimal vote hopping early game, and then focused almost exclusively on Hiraki before dropping. Narrow has made one post. I don't know how you can judge who would be Narrow's buddy - apart from Hiraki - from that slot's play.

[Green Crayons]

We're in the day before lylo. It's time to start forming feasible scumpairs and pushing them rather than "this or that" pairs.

If you can't see a player being scum with Hiraki and one other player, then they probably aren't scum.

Also, there's a difference between "see<ing> a player being scum with Hiraki and one other player" - which to me means that there isn't a case

against

the scum team - and making an affirmative case that three players are a scum team.

I can see Hiraki, Narrow, and prawn being on a scumteam in the sense that I think it is possible. I can see Hiraki and Narrow being on a scumteam, and I don't have a strong inclination of their pairing being antithetical to any of the remaining players being joined into their ranks (except prawn, now that I've worked through his D2 vote of Hiraki).

[Green Crayons]

I can see Hiraki, Narrow, and prawn being on a scumteam in the sense that I think it is possible.

I can see Hiraki and Narrow being on a scumteam, and I don't have a strong inclination of their pairing being antithetical to any of the remaining players being joined into their ranks (except prawn, now that I've worked through his D2 vote of Hiraki).

Fixed. I wrote that sentence before reflecting upon my recent analysis, and neglected to delete.

[Alchemist21]

^Why do you think WW is Town and why do you think his vote on Hiraki couldn't be bussing? He had very little to say about Hiraki this game and then just naked voted onto Hiraki, putting him at L-1. Pretty soon after Hiraki states he doesn't mind dying and WW says his reservations about lynching Hiraki are gone.

[Whomping Willow]

I've actually spent a lot of time talking about Hiraki, initially I was scumreading him but by the end of the day my vote on him was policy/a bit of utility from lingering scumread, I was townreading both those wagonees

[Whomping Willow]

In commemoration of my 100th post

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[Alchemist21]

I've actually spent a lot of time talking about Hiraki, initially I was scumreading him but by the end of the day my vote on him was policy/a bit of utility from lingering scumread, I was townreading both those wagonees

Not really. You had more to say about him around the time you voted him, but before that it was just your spamfests and baseless assertions against RM and myself.

[Alchemist21]

Nah Alchemist and/and random

But unless both scum bussed we can lynch down the list of Alchemist/Texcat/GC and win

VOTE: Green Canyons

L-1

After rereading Hiraki, I would lynch GC, Prawn, or Texcat. This is mainly PoE because most of the Hiraki interactions look like scum-town interactions.

Give me an O
give me a p
give me another p
give me another o
now give me an r
now give me a t
and give me a u
and now it's an n
and give me an i
and now it's an s
and now it's a t
and now one more i
And finally, a c!

What does that spell

OPPPRTUNISTIC!

UNVOTE:

I didn't realize Prawn and Texcat were on the wagon together.

Which means it's much more likely that Prawn and Texcat are scum together.

VOTE: Texcat

I think WW os Town because Hiraki seemed upset when people voted him over WW who he thought should be a policy lynch, and then he said he would ally with WW for a Yakko lynch. That doesn't read as scum-scum interaction to me.

^That's L-1 btw.

VOTE: texcat

Also this- If you were fine lynching down the line of GC, Texcat,and myself, then why did you call my L-1 vote on GC opportunistic while being perfectly fine hammering after my L-1 vote on Texcat? It doesn't add up. You, sir, are the scum.

[Green Crayons]

@Alchemist:

Why do you think WW is Town and why do you think his vote on Hiraki couldn't be bussing?

I think WW is town because his vote pushes on Alchemist and random looked like OMGUS, and I think town are more likely to suspect their accusers than scum (who are more worried about being called out for OMGUSing), and because his insistent "Alchemist is Scum" in rainbow caps is not a solid scum strategy because it, at its best, only makes town annoyed with WW, which is not something scum would want to do.

That said, WW is my weakest town read out of Lia, WW, and Yakko.

I guess WW's vote could be bussing - in that it's not out of the realm of possibility, and WW/Yakko's position on the Hiraki wagon make them in the typical bus slot - but I don't see the case for it being a bus.

[NJAC]

votecount

Votecount 4.1

Alchemist21

: 1 - Whomping Willow (L-3)

Green Crayons

: 1 - prawneater (L-3)

Narrow

: 1 - Green Crayons (L-3)

Not voting

: 4 - Narrow, hi im Yakko, Alchemist21, Lia.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

If you see any mistake please let me know.

The deadline is March 05 at 23:59 EST, which is in

(expired on 2015-03-05 23:59:00)

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[Lia]

I haven't had time to look at this properly today but I should be able to do it tomorrow.

[Narrow]

@Narrow:

Hi, Narrow.

Why were you absent for all of D3?

Gee. I don't know. Maybe it had something to do with how long Day lasted?

[Green Crayons]

lol, D3 was only one real life day? Seemed like at least two before I went back and checked.

[Whomping Willow]

I'm bored, everyone vote

[Alchemist21]

I'm waiting to hear more from Lia and Narrow. I don't want the day to end quickly like it did yesterday before they've gotten to say what they want.

[Lia]

Sorry about this, I wasn't able to do it at the weekend. I'll catch up Monday.