Micro 89 ~ Mafia Rarefaction Segunda (Game Over!)

[callforjudgement]

Just got online. This post is to prove I'm not hammering, despite having the opportunity.

[callforjudgement]

Konowa: Is fitz or Parama scum? And why? I've pretty much heard from everyone else, but I haven't heard from you.

[Vi]

~Vote Count XLI

Aeris
Konowa
Leafsnail

Parama ~ havingfitz
callforjudgement
havingfitz ~ Parama

--Deadline is January 9, 2013 (in

(expired on 2013-01-09 21:00:00)

).

[havingfitz]

Do you have any questions for me cjf? Now that you are confirmed town I don't mind putting effort into a Parama case. The thought of doing one and then you just coming in and hammering someone was not appealing.

[callforjudgement]

Do you have any questions for me cjf? Now that you are confirmed town I don't mind putting effort into a Parama case. The thought of doing one and then you just coming in and hammering someone was not appealing.

Yeah. I guess the most obvious elephant in the fridge is quickhammering out of self-preservation

twice

(you might not be able to explain the first one, but you'd better be able to explain the second). Can you talk me through the Mafia theory of doing that as town? Because I want to know why you thought it was a good idea.

[havingfitz]

I can't explain Trevor's actions other than to say they seem born of a position similar to what I felt I was in yesterday. In my read through I had begun to get increasingly suspicious of three players...Parama, Konowa and Tierce (probably in that order). I also had noticed that in addition to Parama, Konowa and Leafsnail had voiced suspicions towards Trevor/me. So when I came on the site yesterday morning with hours remaining till deadline and at first saw I was at L-1, as I mentioned earlier...I panicked a bit. I did see the votecount before I voted so I knew I wasn't actually at L-1 but I was close enough to being lynched IMO to still be concerned about being quicklynched since I had two players not voting me that had expressed strong suspicions towards Trevor/me. I felt going from L-2 to being hammered was imminent.

Considering what I felt was a somewhat sudden switch in sentiment towards me from Tierce (I had not read the previous 3-4 pages prior to the lynch page) I felt Tierce was working a little self preservation herself and as IMO there was a decent chance she might be scum...I certainly thought it was a "good idea" lynching potential scum vs allowing a mislynch on myself. Especially given I had just finished reading almost 30 pages of the game and a sudden departure if I could avoid it was not an option.

@Aeris...as I mention above...I knew I was at L-2 from the votecount but as the first thing I saw when I logged on yesterday morning was that I was at L-1, which did panic me a bit. Even though I subsequently saw I was actually L-2 that was close enough to concern me given Konowa and Leaf were not among those on my wagon. As for the bolded part...that should have read scum but as I posted that after Tierce had already flipped town I suppose I had her as town on the brain.

[callforjudgement]

The thing that's worrying me is about the theory of this setup. Getting mislynched in rarefaction = getting mislynched in lylo = a loss. So, if you're going to get mislynched at all, you'd rather do so sooner than later.

As such, if the town is widespread suspicious of someone, it's probably for the best if they allow themselves to be lynched unless they're really sure they know who scum is. This is the reason Tierce didn't try to push lynches harder towards the end of the day, I think; she wasn't sure. (And it's part of the reason I was so suspicious of her earlier; I don't really expect people to push lynches hard unless they think they have strong evidence, and repeatedly pushing hard on townies is always going to make me very nervous.) As such, as town in your position, I'd have

tried to look townier

allowed the game to go to a deadline lynch. If nothing else, you get useful knowledge from seeing who's on the wagon if someone gets hammered, and who held off if nobody gets hammered. (In particular, if scum don't really seem to be showing a preference as to who gets lynched, then either they're particularly brave or both wagons are on town.)

I'm leaning strongly towards voting for you simply on the basis that I can't see much town motivation in the quickhammer at all, on a theory basis.

Anyway, I'm confirmed, I consider Aeris as close to confirmed as possible (and will not consider the possibility of her being scum), but I think what

will

help us out in the endgame is the fact that, unlike normal 3p lylo, scumhunting is possible by the unconfirmed players. I'd like all fitz, Parama, Leafsnail, and Konowa all to focus on determining who is scum in the other 3-man pod, for a while; they know who's scum in their own pod, but that just means it's hard to distinguish town from scum because everyone has the same aims. And I'd like reasoning, rather than just names.

[callforjudgement]

BTW, does anyone here have meta on Konowa? I don't, although I'll go read up on him if nobody does.

[Konowa]

Drinking coffee and reading stuff over.

cfj, I only have two completed scum games. Both are in my wiki, Steam Library Madness and Reverse Mafia Redux.

[callforjudgement]

Bleh, just reread, and my main conclusion is, Tierce is still scum. This conclusion disappoints me, especially because the mod said it was wrong :(

Konowa is playing closer to his town meta, but I can't really call myself a meta expert on Konowa off such a small sample.

I need to go back and see who was pushing on him.

[callforjudgement]

fitz, what was your read on me at the start of today (before I confirmed myself as town)?

[Parama]

zzz nobody is surprised by this
I'm not gonna rush you cfj
But this isn't a hard decision

[callforjudgement]

Are you at least going to help your faction win the other pod? (I know I can't expect anything useful from you wrt this one.)

[Parama]

I dunno really. Could be anyone there which is why I'm glad I got the easy decision .-.

[callforjudgement]

So why did you think I was obvtown, anyway? Or was it more a case of fitz being obvscum?

[callforjudgement]

BTW, it'd be a bad idea for me to hammer my own pod even if I were 100% sure of who it was, because if either pod gets hammered, it'll cut off all possibility of relational tells for the rest of the game.

I'd rather leave it late for that reason, and perhaps Aeris and I can agree on a plan and place our hammers close to each other near deadline.

[havingfitz]

cjf...I hope you don't hold rarefaction theory against me as I've never even heard of rarefaction games before I replaced in here and until ~halfway though my read I didn't even realize what the dynamic of this game was. Let alone what the standard train of thought in it might be. Typically my train of thought is to fight for survival to the end regardless of my alignment and I'm not sure having experience in rarefaction games/theory would have changed the way I approached yesterday or not. I also can't recall if I've ever been in the position before where I was a lynch frontrunner (relatively speaking) and had another player I had suspicions of sitting in front of me at L-1. It wasn't a difficult decision in my mind. It just turned out poorly.

My opinion of your slot was: aceofspades is typically mislynch material and a policy lynch candidate (neither of which I am a fan of) so I tend to give his type a pass for at least a day to see what happens. Which in this case seems to have attracted a poorly supported wagon on ace by Tierce and (ding ding ding ding ding!!!) Parama. StefanB is a good player and he gave the slot a town feel IMO and the same opinion applies to you. So aside from some aceofspades apprehension your slot has come across as town in this game.

Parama is obviously scum in our group.

@cjf

...what is your take on Parama?

As for the other group...I have had a good feel towards Aeris for the most part and given her grouping I would say she is the closest thing to confirmed town. And between Leaf and Konowa I would say Konowa is the most likely to be scum.

[callforjudgement]

I'm leaning towards you (fitz) as the scum for the moment, but am not decided yet. There's a lot of evidence pointing towards you (opinions of flipped townies, VCA, hammering behaviour).

[Parama]

A case of fitz being obvscum, duh. The guy I've been pushing for god knows how long. Is scum. Shock. And. Awe.
Please note how in 841 he calls me obvscum, doesn't give anything to back it up, but asks for your read anyways. The line is out of place in the post, considering the rest of it has nothing to do with me.

[Parama]

Please also note that throughout his ISO he says many things like "I like this point against Parama. I don't like this Parama post."
He doesn't say why, just that he does. Without fail. No reason why anything I've done is scummy, just that it "is". Seriously, look at his ISO 3. Search my name and count the number of times "like" or "liking" are in proximity of my name.

And in ISO 6: "You either suck as town or are scum, but I'm not going to say which. Please unvote." He also says he suspects me, except I might be sucky town.
ISO 7: "Crap, he's not going to unvote, so OMGUS time."
ISO 8 promises a case. His next two posts (fairly decent sized) say nothing about me.
Also, voting confirmed town with confirmed town is apparently scummy. Cool. No, that's pretty sucky wagon analysis.
Naturally, because "I suspect Parama" and "I don't like Parama's posts," I am "obvscum" to fitz.

No, his entire read is blatantly phony and only in place out of necessity to survive. Doesn't take a genius to see why.

[havingfitz]

So what is your take on Parama cjf?

As for your "lot of evidence pointing towards" me...I would say:

Opinions of flipped townies point more so at both you and Parama.

VCA would seem to implicate you about the same as me and and you're confirmed town...so how is my VCA a negative (hammers being considered a seperate point)? Our voting patterns (yours and mine) have been fairly similar. So far everyone on a lynch has pushed a mislynch and a few have gone above and beyond and pushed confirmed town that wasn't lynched (ie you and F16). Parama was perfectly willing to hammer you D1 (as well as most of the players in the game it seemed like) and he continued to push for F16's lynch even AFTER the IC claim. I guess that's a town tell? Pushing for a non-cc'd ~PR lynch? Or is it so scummy scum would never do it...wifom? Like admitting to playing like crap and not having his typical game and in general playing scummy as hell. Barely bothering to give reasons for his votes despite criticizing those who didn't. Please ISO Paramascum.

As for the hammers...I've explained mine to the nth degree. I suspect Trevor was of the same mindset. And to be honest...looking back at the D1 voting. TUG being lynched was pretty much a given when Trevor pulled the trigger (especially given the plurality aspect) so his hammer didn't accomplish anything that wasn't bound to happen anyway. Even Parama was willing to lynch TUG if it got to within 12 hours of the deadline

despite proclaiming TUG a town read

. WTF? Whereas I honestly felt like my hammer had a decent chance at hitting scum while at the same time averting my own mislynch.

[callforjudgement]

Why are you two so busy trying to defend yourselves rather than scumhunting?!

I am very annoyed at this point. Giving sensible opinions on the other pod is one of the few things that would actually be useful! fitz has given only one sentence about the other pod recently, with no explanation. Parama hasn't discussed it at all.

[callforjudgement]

This isn't a normal 3p lylo. You have actual scum to hunt, right over there in the other pod!

[Leafsnail]

@Konowa: Please address the points I made about your Tierce vote.

I'd like all fitz, Parama, Leafsnail, and Konowa all to focus on determining who is scum in the other 3-man pod, for a while; they know who's scum in their own pod, but that just means it's hard to distinguish town from scum because everyone has the same aims. And I'd like reasoning, rather than just names.

Sure, although I'm not sure what else there is to say about fitz. He performed a quickhammer on Tierce, which he has expressly stated was for self-preservation. It was even worse than Trevor's hammer day one - here there were several pages of discussion (in which Konowa floundered pretty badly) which he arbitrarily decided to deny me and Parama the chance to read before the end of the day.

His hammer makes sense as and is possibly the correct move for scum (getting to 6p rarefaction is preferable to going to 4v1 with you/your partner the most likely lynch), but makes no sense at all from a town perspective since a townie should put hitting scum above self-preservation, and also not do something that will make them a likely mislynch at lylo. I can't even see how you could make a blunder like that as a townie, and his "I don't bother to read the rules of the game" excuse doesn't seem likely.

Parama is still a godawful player but that action from fitz (and his subsequent "clearly from a scum viewpoint" explanation) outweighs that. We got lucky in that Parama landed in the cell with obvscum, otherwise the game would likely be lost already.

[havingfitz]

Why are you two so busy trying to defend yourselves rather than scumhunting?!

I am very annoyed at this point. Giving sensible opinions on the other pod is one of the few things that would actually be useful! fitz has given only one sentence about the other pod recently, with no explanation. Parama hasn't discussed it at all.

.
1) if you don't get it right in here it doesn't matter who is scum in the other group.
2) I know Parama is scum....Aeris, Leaf and Konowa...not so much. So I prefer working on the sure thing fmpov
3) IMO Leaf backing Parama is tarnishing whatever town read I might have had towards him

I can believe that despite Parama's consistent crap play throughout the game he's getting a pass for some reason unknown to me. ffs.