Newbie 1320 -- Game Over

[Remembrance]

Just dug through Insanities vote record:

1
1
3
2
4
3
3

This might explain Rob's subtle defense of Insanity. Not much to go off of though.

[Rob14]

Fair enough Zephyr. I will give you a few metaphorical meta bones.

1. Rob is scum, more often than the average.
2. Why is Rob scum so much?
3. Discuss.

That's...fairly irrelevant.

Also, you ask Ree not to go out softly...he kind of self-voted which is also, as a matter of fact, anti-town.

I'm almost entirely confident in a Ree lynch. He has not played this game like a VT at all. He's suggesting that I'm unsure of a lynch of him. I'm not. I'm also not going to lock myself into an anti-town 1v1, though. I wouldn't do this as either alignment because it doesn't make sense for either.

[Nobody Special]

I have a question. If a Jail keeper protects Zephyr, but the Jail keeper is killed. Does Zephyr get to investigate?

A player that is jailkept cannot perform any actions. See the Role PM in this post. Kills resolve after everything else, so the jailkeep would happen, then the kill.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.02

Mr_Ree - 2 - ProHawk, Rob13
ProHawk - 1 - Mr_Ree

Not Voting: kuror0, Remembrance, MrZepher, insanity

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

V/LA: Mr_Ree, through Tuesday, January January 29; kuror0, through either Monday, April 1 or Friday, February 1, I can't tell what he meant by "monday 1st". Maybe Monday February 4. Anyway, he's not here right now.

Deadline: (expired on 2013-02-17 16:55:31)

[Remembrance]

Thanks, special.
Hawk. It just occurred to me that the chances of your death are practically 100% You're a dead man walking.

Reasoning: Scum want to prevent a situation where they get jailed in Lylo. Thus, they will kill the jailor. There's no reason to jail Zephyr this round. Your only hope is to correctly guess who the killer is.

1.You need to think about who to jail, Hawk.
2. You need to think about who you're going to investigate Zephyr. You'll only get one shot, unless Hawk gets lucky.

Maybe you guys knew that already, but I'm working my newbie brain here.

[MrZepher]

It was something that probably didn't need to be said. No offense to you, I have reason for not having mentioned it earlier but it's not that big of a deal.
In a situation like this I feel like it's pretty pertinent that scum get lynched today.

What are Insanity's thoughts on the current situation?
I'm curious.

[ProHawk]

Indeed, I pretty much knew as much. Why do you think I spent so much time trying to defend myself? Perhaps I played a little too aggressively, especially in a newbie game, but it is what it is.

The issue I am toying with is declaring who I will JK so you will know who it was that was JKed in case I am not successful at stopping the kill...

[Rob14]

The issue I am toying with is declaring who I will JK so you will know who it was that was JKed in case I am not successful at stopping the kill...

That might be a good idea. Going into LyLo with a confirmed townie would be extremely useful.

[Rob14]

The issue I am toying with is declaring who I will JK so you will know who it was that was JKed in case I am not successful at stopping the kill...

That might be a good idea. Going into LyLo with a confirmed townie would be extremely useful.

[Rob14]

I'm a derp. Ignore the double post by me quoting myself.

[Mr_Ree]

This game is bleeding into real life. there was a IRL murder 3 doors down from my apt yesterday. Vla till things get sorted.

[insanity]

Go ahead and clarify your question Zeph

I said earlier I was gonna re-read into Ree's thing and more importantly reread in general to see if there's anything I missed so I'll try to get that in soon. Been awfully busy

[Remembrance]

This game is bleeding into real life. there was a IRL murder 3 doors down from my apt yesterday. Vla till things get sorted.

Wow, sorry to hear that. Glad you weren't hurt.

Gunna think about who I want to pursue.

Right now, I'm leaning Rob and Insanity. It would just be wrong if there wasn't a newbie in the scum team. It wouldn't be very educational.

I need to think what questions I want to ask.... Okay one question for Rob13 below. While waiting for Kuro to get back from his trip.

1. Why did you suspect me when I killed Catlord? To me it sounded like you knew Cat would turn up town and were working on shifting suspicion.

[Remembrance]

Prohawk the problem with your idea is that if you announce who you jail, then the scum can just decide not to kill anyone to do a frame job. Also,

One of you must send the moderator

a PM with your choice of who to kill and who is performing the kill before the Night deadline.

If you say who, then the scum can just send the other guy to do the kill. It's ineffectual at stopping them; you have to hope they decide to perform the kill with the person you selected. Or else you won't block them.

That might be a good idea. Going into LyLo with a confirmed townie would be extremely useful.

Rob13 just earned 1 scum point. Good job, Hawk.

[ProHawk]

No Rem, we are lynching scum today. And that scum is Mr_Ree. Therefore there will only be one scum left, and he will be forced to make the kill.

[Remembrance]

How sure are you about this Hawk?

[ProHawk]

Evidence clearly points in his direction, he was completely and utterly acting scummy towards me today. It is clear that he wanted to go after me today without regard to my alignment, this is scum.

[Remembrance]

Because Rob constantly sounds more confident than he has any right to be. I understand confidence is essential to get people behind you on a lynch, but it doesn't change the fact this is a game of probability. Rob just landed a serious, objective scum tell. He's a pre-IC, the fact he didn't know that rule says something serious. It sends off warning bells.

[Rob14]

1. Why did you suspect me when I killed Catlord? To me it sounded like you knew Cat would turn up town and were working on shifting suspicion.

No, it was exactly how you acted both times you were close to pushing through a lynch. You acted overly cocky and sure of yourself, bordering on arrogance. This is something I see from noob-scum sometimes. I rarely see it from town, noob or otherwise, because town is never 100% sure that they were right pre-flip. It was a behavioral pattern I noticed both when you were close to pushing through a Zeph lynch AND when you were close to lynching Cat. Since then, I developed a town read on your slot, though.

[Remembrance]

Actually, I just post flippantly when people are near death. It's supposed to be dramatic irony. I guess it didn't come off that way.

[Remembrance]

Well, I just thought about it. I have a game plan. I do not expect you guys to agree with this, you're all way more experienced than I am and therefore have more efficient means of operating than I do. But, as newbie town I think it important for me to flex my muscles. See where it takes me.

Why Rob Is Scum

1. Rob is competent scum. If you disagree, please check his meta.

2. Scum theory: Scum play as town. Their advantage is that they can do actions that benefit scum to give them an advantage

3. They weigh the dangers of making such moves and are careful not to arouse suspicion, they will only move when the benefits outweigh the cost

4. This move by Rob was one such move. If Hawk announces who he will jail keep, then he and his partner are covered and gain an additional advantage. The only cost is minor and any suspicion can be waved off as paranoia or ignorance of the rules

4b. The benefit: They will know who will be jailed and can tell the other member to kill, therefore guaranteeing themselves a safe slot into Lylo(If Hawk chooses one of them) AND a kill

5. Calculated inaction. Rob13 saw my accusation and said nothing. He will deny this. He was not sure how to respond to the accusation made by me and so choose to ignore it.

5b.We already know he previews his posts.

Game Plan

1. Lynch Rob
2. Jail Insanity.
3. Investigate Kuro.

Branch A [No deaths]
1.The day starts fresh, no one died.
2. /nolynch
3. Jail Insanity
4. Investigate Insanity

Branch B [ProHawk is killed]
1. If Kuro is innocent, It is either Ree or Insanity.
2. Lynch one, investigate the other.

I'm sorry ProHawk. I want to buddy you here, but I'm sort of a jerk, I guess.
Going to bed, will say hello in the morning. Oh, and /Vote Rob13

[Remembrance]

Sorry, made a mistake in branch B. If Prohawk dies and Kuro is innocent, than Ree is 100% guilty.

[Remembrance]

Actually, I may be a genius.

In branch B.
1. If Kuro is innocent and Prohawk dies. Then it has to be Ree.
2. If Kuro is guilty and ProHawk dies. Then Ree is his scum buddy.
I just realized. We won the game. Wow, I am awesome. Give me a clap on the shoulder. I deserve one.

[Remembrance]

To summarize:
1. Kuro Innocent, Insanity Jailed -> Prohawk death -> Ree
2. Kuro Guilty, Insanity jailed -> Prohawk death -> Ree
3. Kuro Innocent -> No town death -> /nolynch to victory.

The only way this doesn't work is if I'm scum or Zephyr lied.

[insanity]

So you're willing to lynch one of the most pro-town players on the basis that they're an experienced player? If they're competent they not only will be competent as scum, but also as town. I can accept how Rob would be scum if Ree flipped town, but I feel like you're reaching pretty far out.

Also, that isn't calculated inaction. Something about that doesn't really add up; he's competent scum and he purposefully chooses to ignore your accusations? I just don't see it happening, however that could be my lack of experience as well

So what if Rob flips town? What's your plan? We'd be in LyLo after that night by the way.