Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 3.03

It's the way that you feel
It's the truth in your eye
You got wings upon your back and you can fly

Not Voting (7):

Fredrick A Campbell, JohnnyFarrar, Malakittens, MathBlade, MegAzumarill, Not Known 15, Roden

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is October 16 at 12:30 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-16 12:30:00)

[Malakittens]

Ngl I don’t really care about this game anymore: every single time I have played with math with the expection of one game, he’s been scum and used that to miselim
Me and I’m kinda lowkey sick of it.

Also nk with the whole omg these players are solving but these aren’t when I was solving d2 with a huge fucking post which tbh I might never do as scum. I think I have maybe done that once as scum.

But whatever

Not remembering that nk clears Fred & math doesn’t make me scum

[MathBlade]

Uhm..I am actively NOT pushing you right now?

I could have easily just tunnelled you if scum and you town?

Like I get I have been scum a lot previously but I rarely if ever push you ask scum because comparatively you’re inactive?

Wtf Mala?

[MathBlade]

All I am asking for is reads. Who you think CL is and why? Who do you think is cult?

[Roden]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

[Roden]

The only thing I'm interested in talking about right now while we wait is your paranoia on me, because we literally just lose if you pivot onto me.

[MathBlade]

The only thing I'm interested in talking about right now while we wait is your paranoia on me, because we literally just lose if you pivot onto me.

I am building a heat map of who suspects who.

Serves me well in dance games.

Right now the overwhelming consensus is Mala

Which means if Mala is cult leader scum are staging for another day

And if she’s not they’re close to winning.

Since I am known to be town I am just plotting every possibility.

[MegAzumarill]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

Who are your townreads that aren't talking?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Spoiler:

I don't buy Drapion's WIFOM and I think he spewed Math town, and I doubt he'd be recruited with how strongly he was getting scum read yesterday.

@Roden

These ideas seem incongruous to me? Like do you think scum were banking on Drap's wifom being effective and thus didn't recruit him with the intention of mislimming him?
_

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

These two posts back to back make Math seem like a really important pivot point in scum's decision making, and like... I don't see it?
_

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

@Math

why to both of these? I disagree with both points
_

442 does this weird thing for me. Mala is a hard read after d1 because I absolutely think they're scum here, but did they start posting actual content because they were recruited? Or because they were the only scum left? They have good reasons for TRing Roden tho.
_

Where are elements and NK15?

Math posting like a shark here. Seems almost predatory. This activity fishing was not present d1. Or at least not with Mala.
_

Elements push on Fred in 458 is solid.
_

Campbell isn't CL. This only leaves one candidate. Meg.

Unsupported statements!
_

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Mala, Roden, Fred. We're on the same page. Maybe I'm just paranoid.
_

471 is way more confident about Drapions flailings than I think is reasonable. He made sure to mention everybody, not really sure how Math can say anything about anybody there.
_

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

So again, confident without cause. You've already claimed VT so it's not even you speaking from a place of privileged knowledge. This post sent me on a wild goose chase trying to figure out this setup that only made me frustrated. Could just be that I'm vaguely aware of a cop claim in my future but idk.
_

This Math/Roden back and forth on page 20 looks a bit contrived from Math as Roden seems really reasonable. Meg seems to see that as well.
_

Oh shit it gets worse
_

521 is really compelling and I can see why Elements got voted out with a case like this.
_

VOTE: elements

Peac out bro

I might be confbiased on Mala here because I read a lot of glee here
_

Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?

I get thinking this way, especially late in the day when you think you have a slam dunk case, but sometimes people just be busy
_

566 is why I stopped wall posting, people get into hyper specifics and it looks demanding. No thanks.
_

Bbl gonna go watch X with the missus

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence

Hella busy or not, Mala did think that Fred was PR at least. But I guess with Mala being busy it's also possible that she missed the Night 1 convert and it is just her and Fred.

[Roden]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

Who are your townreads that aren't talking?

Johnny's overextended catch-up isn't doing much to address the current game state. Fred is also barely here; I'm pretty certain he isn't CL due to how NK15 played around him and my belief that NK15 was not recruited N1.

[MathBlade]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence

Hella busy or not, Mala did think that Fred was PR at least. But I guess with Mala being busy it's also possible that she missed the Night 1 convert and it is just her and Fred.

I do not think a convert would be missed

I am more saying that Mala+Roden would be a divisive combo based on what they’ve posted.

They aren’t posting the same ideas.

So mainly if NK15 to not be converted in a Roden scum world that would be an argument between Roden and X.

The alternative would be Roden using hindsight

I just don’t think Mala argues with Roden based on her lack of activity and business IRL. So Mala Roden NK15 makes more sense to me or dropping Roden off entirely or Mala off.

[MathBlade]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

Who are your townreads that aren't talking?

Johnny's overextended catch-up isn't doing much to address the current game state. Fred is also barely here; I'm pretty certain he isn't CL due to how NK15 played around him and my belief that NK15 was not recruited N1.

I am going to be pretty quiet tomorrow first time out of the house in a few months. So if I am quiet that’s why.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I believe that Malakittens is most likely the Cult Leader. Here's what I will be doing. Looking at every other player and estimating how likely the hypotheses that the player is Cult Leader is.

I propose other players attempt to do the same. The player which is most likely Cult Leader should be the best choice from your perspective.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Hypotheses become more likely the more the attempts to disprove them fail.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

hutmeil was barely around before getting replaced - null
MathBlade in day 1 appeared to attempt to be posting - more likely to come from town
Stopped before MathBlade's 218

Postscript: I am very glad I made myself fulfil my obligations for today a few days ago. I will look at my future obligations to make sure I can continue doing this.

[MegAzumarill]

Hypotheses become more likely the more the attempts to disprove them fail.

I mean no but thats not particularly relevant right now so w/e

[MegAzumarill]

At least in the context of mafia

[MegAzumarill]

Realistically the chopping block should be between Fred and Mala.
The possibility of Mala is certainly more likely if but for the options of Fred!CL requires a n1 Nk15 recruit which feels less likely but not unreasonable

[Malakittens]

Here's the thing

You all should be concerned with the decent number of people scum reading me in ELO. THAT should be a red-flag because scum is less likely to bus this close to a win

[MegAzumarill]

Here's the thing

You all should be concerned with the decent number of people scum reading me in ELO. THAT should be a red-flag because scum is less likely to bus this close to a win

Ok but like I think those players are town though?

Fred/Math/NK/Me as the four townies makes a lot of sense here

[MegAzumarill]

And even if NK is scum with you as cl its not a horrible bus for them here

[MegAzumarill]

For the most part I think these popins with what seems like a new angle of defensive each time reflect poorly on Mala's alignment. I feel like if she's town here she is at threat of losing right here and now and yet I don't see the action thise stakes would prompt

[JohnnyFarrar]

Idk man if I were scum I'd bus Mala at this point.

[Malakittens]

Sorry I’m honestly not dealing with another two days of this shif when we all know I’m going to be mistimed regardless and apparently the town jsut can’t give zero fucks and in over it

VOTE: Mala

If the last scum is roden as the CL then good job buddy, good job