Mini 1715 - Z - Game over!

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #850 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:03 am

VOTE: KarmicGuide

Thor665 · Post Post #851 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:06 am

[vote: No Lynch[/vote]

In post 825, Thor665 wrote:I advocate the following plan.

Jail: Karmic
Rolecop: Eventi
Cop: One of the G's (Gummy, Garmr, Gimlear - or Thor if you feel paranoid about me, but with Bella as assured town that means either he or I was the kill target Night 1, so I suggest I am 99% confirmed town, as is Nacho)
Doc: Dave

In post 849, davesaz wrote:In evaluating Bella as a plausible / implausible kill target for N1, shouldn't her reads on the known scum be taken into account, and not just the unknown ones? And ditto for KarmicGuide.
It also feels like we're relying too much on PR results and ignoring the possibility that VCA can help here.

What VCA are you looking at that appears interesting?

Thor665 · Post Post #852 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:06 am

Gawds I hate this method.

VOTE: No Lynch

Garmr · Post Post #853 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:24 am

VOTE: no lynch

gummmybear · Post Post #854 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:32 am

Intent to vote Karmic and put him at L-1. Does everyone know what to do from there though if he's lynched and if he's not lynched? In case it happens really quickly.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #855 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:34 am

Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr.
Dave jails Karmic if Karmic lives, one of Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr if he dies.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #856 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:35 am

Meaning if we no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic and Eventi!
If we don't no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic, Eventi, and one of Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr!

Thor665 · Post Post #857 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:47 am

In post 856, Nachomamma8 wrote:Meaning if we no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic and Eventi!
If we don't no lynch we get confirmation on Karmic, Eventi, and one of Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr!

To clarify this as I see it;

If we no lynch we get confirmation on Eventi, and force scum to either confirm Karmic or expand our capability to get more confirmations.

If we lynch Karmic we sort him and Eventi, and need to sort out specifically who we're jailing to not have overlap of JK and cops (because not doing that is STUPID) and also decrease the theoretical number of chances we'll have to get investigations prior to a eventual mylo/lylo.

So, y'know, one involves less work and seems more powerful to town.
I know if I was scum who wasn't Karmic I would support the lynch in a heartbeat.

Thor665 · Post Post #858 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:51 am

Let's see, Gim and Gummy are the hot to trot G lynchers. Garmr isn't.
So, with that in mind;

Night Plan with No Lynch

Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gimlear/Gummy/Garmr.
Dave jails Karmic.
Nacho Docs Dave

Night Plan with Karmic Lynch

Pistach targets Eventi.
Radja investigates Gummy/Garmr.
Dave jails Gimlear
Nacho docs Dave.

I would support that.
I also support no lynch.

Thor665 · Post Post #859 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:51 am

We *never* go into night without clear Jailkeep target, being the point.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #860 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:57 am

My only complaint is speed.

We can force the win with lynches. Why not force the win with lynches when it's faster?

Thor665 · Post Post #861 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:19 am

I am less confident in the forced win via lynches than you are - if scum keep no killing than town will auto win, so the mod can speed that up for us if he wants to, but that's the punishment for scum.
My method is strictly superior if they keep failing to kill.
I don't think my method is any worse (and would argue it is better) if they do start killing compared to your method with lynching.
So I just don't see a need to bother with the lynching for the sake of 'speed'.

Thor665 · Post Post #862 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:19 am

I mean, I will be clear, I am 80% confident that Karmic will be our last scum - but in the off chance scum is gambiting with the kills - I'd rather grind them down via logic then hand them mislynches to help their lylo play.

Radja · Post Post #863 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:52 am

Let's end this day, one way or another.

pistachi0n · Post Post #864 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:48 am

If we lynch Karmic, we narrow the pool that we have to investigate. Scum probably wants a no lynch so they can avoid scrutiny (if scum is not Karmic)

pistachi0n · Post Post #865 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:00 pm

Also why isn't Bella a viable target for the cop to look at?

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #866 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:26 pm

In post 861, Thor665 wrote:I am less confident in the forced win via lynches than you are - if scum keep no killing than town will auto win, so the mod can speed that up for us if he wants to, but that's the punishment for scum.
My method is strictly superior if they keep failing to kill.
I don't think my method is any worse (and would argue it is better) if they do start killing compared to your method with lynching.
So I just don't see a need to bother with the lynching for the sake of 'speed'.

I ran through all possible scenarios that could occur if we lynched Karmic today; whether I protect Dave or Pistach tonight, we can lynch everyone except for a jailkeeper clear if we have to.

Scum no killing last night (if it was a no kill), lost them the game. There is no route to victory for scum if we lynch or no lynch, and I would rather end the game here instead of no lynching for no reason.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #867 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:27 pm

In post 865, pistachi0n wrote:Also why isn't Bella a viable target for the cop to look at?

Bella has been targeted by Radja and you. The only way Radja could get an innocent on her is if she was a Godfather and the only way you could get Vanilla on her is Goon. She cannot be a Goon and a Godfather at the same time, thus is confirmed town.

Gimlear · Post Post #868 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:33 pm

In post 863, Radja wrote:Let's end this day, one way or another.

I agree. The day has dragged on, and I don't think there's much more to say that hasn't already been said on both sides.

Garmr · Post Post #869 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:10 pm

In post 864, pistachi0n wrote:If we lynch Karmic, we narrow the pool that we have to investigate. Scum probably wants a no lynch so they can avoid scrutiny (if scum is not Karmic)

Are you dumb?

if a kill happens now karmic becomes confirmed town. If he is scum then there is no danger involved in locking him up for ever. It's a total win for town for a no lynch but if we lynch him and his town we just basically lost one town for nothing.

Garmr · Post Post #870 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:18 pm

Sorry that was mean but seriously we were just talking about all the benefits and cons in a lynch and no lynch and everyone admitted that a no lynch was the best option with way better results and no down sides other than the long weight if karmic is scum but the people who want to lynch didn't want to drag this out if he is.

Bellaphant · Post Post #871 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:18 pm

Sooo, intent to hammer?

Garmr · Post Post #872 (ISO) » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:24 pm

don't hammer just no lynch -_-

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #873 (ISO) » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:08 am

In post 871, Bellaphant wrote:Sooo, intent to hammer?

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Nachomamma8 · Post Post #874 (ISO) » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:08 am

In post 870, Garmr wrote:Sorry that was mean but seriously we were just talking about all the benefits and cons in a lynch and no lynch and everyone admitted that a no lynch was the best option with way better results and no down sides other than the long weight if karmic is scum but the people who want to lynch didn't want to drag this out if he is.

This didn't happen!