Open 546: Fire and Ice (Game Over)

[Haylen]

Just woke up, need food and caffiene. Expect something in the next 6 hours.

[Rubicon]

Vote Count 3.4

[3]

ObsessedWithCats

- Dry-fit, jmo16mla, Titus
[1]

Dry-fit

- ObsessedWithCats
[1]

Titus

- 3dicerolling

[2]

Not voting

- Haylen, Shadowcat

With 7 alive, it is 4 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-03-22 14:00:00).

ObsessedWithCats is V/LA until Tuesday.

Let me know if you see any problems.

[3dicerolling]

The thing about not needing to do anymore scumhunting is absolutely wrong. We do need to lynch one scum, but we have to draw reactions that make them obvious to the other team. There are quite a few scenarios here, but we need the non-OWC team to shoot a scumfuck here to prevent the other scumfuck team from winning. If OWC-team shoots town and non-OWC team doesn't shoot the same town, non-OWC wins. If both scums shoot the same target, then we get another free lynch shot. We have to cut off information so that the big team can't shoot the scum AND hide, thus leaving golden opportunity for a 1 v 1 v 2 or 3 v 1. Then we no lynch, hoping the two scums NK each other or the last scum has to tip their hand by shooting the most obvious townie.

That's the goal. We have to ensure a cross-kill. So that's why we have to hurry and hammer the most obvious scumfuck.

Normally though, I'd agree with you.

If we lynch town here, we are pretty boned, but I don't see anyone making a case that OWC is town here. Stalling this lynch out is exactly what I expect scum to do because scum must find the last townies. Town just have to trick scum into nightkilling the wrong team here.

This is close to my thoughts. The thing is, my job for the town is to locate one person of the opposite team of OWC, so that they will shoot the other team. The problem is what you've done. You've said that you located one of the teams, then want to lynch someone from that team. In that case, the opposite team would shoot the last member, and the other team would be left guessing who the opposite team is and have a greater chance of shooting town. If they shoot town, then scum will have 2/2. The town loses. If you're town, do you see how you have screwed us?

As for the derping, it takes me awhile of derping to figure things out correctly sometimes. Look at Walking Dead. I derped on Oversoul until I figured out Candillian was scum. Still failed.

Ugh, loaded self-vouch question. I don't have the puzzle wrong, so your question ("How can I be town if I have the puzzle wrong?) is inaccurate and rhetorical. I'm editing it to "How can I be town if I

had

the game wrong?") Town mess up. We use the information we gain to solve the rest of the game. I'm always targeted as scum, due to my recent scum victories and frequent mislynches as town. Out of my recent games, I have had about 5 scum PMs compared to 1 town pm (out of the ones flipped obviously, this doesn't count ongoing).

You're muddying the water because I would expect town to know we need a quick scum hammer here and that was my objective from my posting. Only OWC's partner was supposed to resist an OWC lynch but there's two players clearly resisting, which makes no sense.

1) Fair enough.

2) Nice response. Would've been what I would've said as town.

3) Basically, read what I said in my response to the other quote. Pretty sure OWC is scum.

[Titus]

Shadow, I kinda figured we'd been working together for the entire game. So how have I not been reaching out to you? That makes no sense. Whenever I needed a vote, you were the first to go to. You're not suggesting anything here at all, just flailing around. If you think the plan I have to quick lynch OWC is bad, then let me know why. If the plan is good, let me know why. Please don't bitch about me not reaching out to you when Mala should know my style is to throw out what I think the best plan is for anyone to contribute. Also, your flail talks about applying meta... can you tell me my favorite meta quote? (Hint: Meta sucks. What people say about meta is golden.)

3dice, there's no way to ensure a town victory at the moment. Scum have to cross kill each other. Lynching the confscum is the only play. Confirming who the hell is town only helps the scumfucks. Right now, as it sits, the opposing team has a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. Removing the obvtowns (myself and Dry-fit, not sure on you yet), that gives scum a pretty good chance of shooting opposite scum. We can't force OWC's partner to play to wincon. We can't really apply pressure to the opposing team without running the risk of losing OWC. Ideally, this play could have been done yesterday if Pisskop hadn't acted like a royal scumfuck.

[3dicerolling]

The thing is, you and/or shadowcat are confo scum due to being the last two left on the Surye wagon who's win conditions are unconfirmed. Unless you're trying to say there were no scum on the Surye wagon, which is a load of crap.

I don't think you are entirely get what I'm saying. If you are right about shadow and OWC, like you were so confident about before, you're scum, and we lynch OWC, then we're playing right into your hands. Shadow is left alone and doesn't know who to kill, you shoot shadow, and we lose if they hit a townie. Except now in this circumstance, shadow can realize I am right and shoot you, which will leave your team with 1, which is bendficial.

The problem is, if you are town and we lynch OWC, then shadowcat will probably kill one of us, then will die, which leaves the scum team in a 2/2 situation. Do you see what I'm getting at?

[Titus]

3dicerolling, I like what you are saying but why would scum vote to lynch Surye when they could keep their hands clean because we were doing all the voting for them? Not all early wagons need to require scum.

I'm perfectly willing to take the chance that scum will play against their wincon and shoot me. I would expect the scum team to cross kill here. We have to pick one team or the other team. We want to hide the identity of the town from the larger team, that's why quicklynch has to work. Let's suppose we find other scum and lynch them. What's to stop that team from derping? Nothing. There is nothing we can do at this point to force scum to play pro win con. I see what you're saying, I just don't think anything can be done to force scum to shoot each other.

[Haylen]

I'm VLA until tomorrow evening as usual for the weekend.

I remain convinced that OWC isn't fire scum. They may be ice scum, though.

Someone said earlier that I was one of the driving forces behind the pisskop lynch. This isn't correct, for the whole of Day One, I was on Zekrom. Through Day Two, I floated between OWC, Shadowcat and Pisskop. My vote may have been a deciding factor and I don't regret the lynch, I'm sticking with my read/evidence but I wouldn't say I drove the lynch.

Scum would have been divided between the Dryfit and Pisskop wagons BUT, I think JMO needs a looking into. He sticks out like a sore thumb being the lone person to vote elsewhere. As scum, I used to deliberately avoid the major wagons at lynch time, obviously he is not me but I see it as something worth looking into. If I'm killed tonight, look at the possibility that the scum on the same faction may have split themselves between those wagons to distance from each other.

Titus - Why would scum play

against

their win con by shooting you if you're town? (Is this one of those multifaction lylo maths things I don't understand?)

I'm liking Dice at the moment. I don't know why he thinks two scum would be on Suryes wagon, though. I would think that analysing day end wagons are less accurate for Day One and more accurate as time goes by.

Has anybody asked me questions I've missed? Sorry about thinking the 819 comment was aimed at me, I clicked the link and it went to my post.

[Titus]

Lynched Scum --- They have to shoot the opposing team to keep a shot at winning the game. If they shoot me, the best scenario is 2 v 1 v 1. No lynch, Lynched scum then shoots scum... the other scum shoots town.. 1 v 1 draw. Lynched scum cannot win unless they cross kill tonight, giving 1 v 1 v 2 (town). Of course, this supposes the big scum faction misses the scum partner.

Not lynched scum --- if the not lynched scum kills me then we can possibly get 1 v 1 v 2 again. Scum don't want this scenario either. If the big scum cross kill then it's 2 v 2 or 1 v 3. Either way, the big scum faction does not have to worry about the night kill and can possibly win. Scum are better off here if they shoot opposing scum.

[Dry-fit]

Because you have a no good dirty townread on him for no good reason.

But we don't have a town read on him. Where are you getting that from?

Well regardless of your current read these are the things you've said about jmo that bother me:

JMO tunnels. I think maybe more affliated with his town game than scum game.

@Shadowcat: What do you think of jmo's "scumhunting" so far this game?

Very limited, but it doesn't look fake.

Welcome to the game dice. I'm sorry to tell you but there's virtually no chance of Titus getting lynched today. Try somewhere else.

Why is there no chance? I disagree with that.

Well that's my sense of where the town stands at the moment.

But my point here really is WHY IS NO ONE TRYING TO ACTIVELY READ US. Like why is Titus, Jmo and Dry NOT TRYING TO REACH OUT TO US.

As I'm sure you know I've devoted my time this game to extreme tunneling. Plus trying to read mala is blah and trying to read hydras is also blah.

I'm so fucking lost that it actually makes me sad to see how lost I am in terms of trying to figure out whos scum.

What's wrong with voting OWC?

Scum would have been divided between the Dryfit and Pisskop wagons BUT, I think JMO needs a looking into. He sticks out like a sore thumb being the lone person to vote elsewhere. As scum, I used to deliberately avoid the major wagons at lynch time, obviously he is not me but I see it as something worth looking into. If I'm killed tonight, look at the possibility that the scum on the same faction may have split themselves between those wagons to distance from each other.

Keep in mind that jmo had been v/la for quite a few days when the pisskop lynch occurred.

[Dry-fit]

Btw mala's whole "oh I have no idea who is scum" thing when there are four scum in a seven player game? Super fake.

[Malakittens]

Btw mala's whole "oh I have no idea who is scum" thing when there are four scum in a seven player game? Super fake.

Tbh I had a feeling that would happen after I posted it, but no regrets because that's actually legit how I feel. I was looking for markers who could be as lost as I was. It's REALLY HARD to actually look for four scum without a flip. I actually feel like I'm chasing my tail here and the fact that no one who I have previously played with isn't trying to reach out. Maybe it's because I play with players now who reach out to me when hunting. This game nothing. Like for instance Penguin_alien tried to reach out to me in a finished game and it actually made me feel town to me, but I was tinted because she had her scum markers.

When I replaced into the F&I it was like whatever after we had a flip I had a decent solid grip, but no current scum flip while in lyLo basically for town.. Really confused and not sure where to go. Without a flip I can't look for the right associations because I don't know what is true or what I speculate could be true based on a non flip.

But yeah so call it fake all you want, but it's not. /:

[3dicerolling]

3dicerolling, I like what you are saying but why would scum vote to lynch Surye when they could keep their hands clean because we were doing all the voting for them? Not all early wagons need to require scum.

I'm perfectly willing to take the chance that scum will play against their wincon and shoot me. I would expect the scum team to cross kill here. We have to pick one team or the other team. We want to hide the identity of the town from the larger team, that's why quicklynch has to work. Let's suppose we find other scum and lynch them. What's to stop that team from derping? Nothing. There is nothing we can do at this point to force scum to play pro win con. I see what you're saying, I just don't think anything can be done to force scum to shoot each other.

Please, link me to a game where scum that were at least somewhat active, weren't on the day 1 wagon because I would love to see it.

I suppose I get what you're saying now. Even if you are scum, the logic is suitable because regardless of which way we go, it all depends on who the scum shoots tonight.

I disagree with you on figuring out who town is or not. Here's the deal.

Scenario: Titus is ice scum. Owc and Cat are fire scum. We lynch owc, titus shoots cat. Cat doesn't know who is town and who is ice scum, therefore mis fires on town. The remaining result is a 2 vs 2 and town loses.

Why would we want this scenario titus?

[3dicerolling]

Or this scenario: Titus is town. Owc and Cat are fire scum. We lynch owc, scum shoot cat. Cat either mis fires on titus or misfires period. Town loses.

[Titus]

The question I am seeing is "What do we do if Shadowcat's a fuck up?" Answer: Nothing we can do until she starts communicating.

You did just give me WHY Shadowcat suddenly is playing dumb and suddenly lost their understanding now.

Shadowcat is playing dumb so we can't lynch OWC because you're paranoid she won't shoot scum. There's not much you can do if OWC's partner is unwilling to townhunt and play to their wincondition.

The other option is to take a chance on someone else being scum and I hate taking a chance that scum will cross kill and the lynch target we choose will flip scum. We have to pick the safer option IMO. We have to lynch scum and then hope that scum cross kill.

[3dicerolling]

Haylen - There could be one from one team and one from the other, or just one from one team.

[3dicerolling]

So are you insinuating I should hammer owc now?

[3dicerolling]

So are you insinuating I should hammer owc now?

[Titus]

Insinuating is a weak word. Yeah, you should hammer OWC. There's not much we can do if Shadowcat refuses to engage and at least put guesses with reasons.

[3dicerolling]

Remind me one more time why I shouldn't find the last scum person and then prove everyone else town?

[Malakittens]

The question I am seeing is "What do we do if Shadowcat's a fuck up?" Answer: Nothing we can do until she starts communicating.

You did just give me WHY Shadowcat suddenly is playing dumb and suddenly lost their understanding now.

Shadowcat is playing dumb so we can't lynch OWC because you're paranoid she won't shoot scum. There's not much you can do if OWC's partner is unwilling to townhunt and play to their wincondition.

The other option is to take a chance on someone else being scum and I hate taking a chance that scum will cross kill and the lynch target we choose will flip scum. We have to pick the safer option IMO. We have to lynch scum and then hope that scum cross kill.

Go screw yourself. We haven't been playing dumb. If anything it has nothing to do with Huntress. It's me I have always had issues in multiball as town. I have always had issues speculating off pairs based on no scum flip. I have no clue who the town are and if they could magically show themselves and actually work with me so town could freaken win that would be cool! There's two more of you because I HAVE a town PM.

I have no issues hammering. Would you like me to hammer because I will, but I wanted to reread and get gut feels and all of them are leanin to Titus scum, maybe 3dice scum because he did a few things that are scum tells for me.

[Malakittens]

Alt slip numbahz 2.

[Titus]

Number 3.

3dice, if the majority scum decide to decide to shoot town to fuck us they can. We don't want them shooting the obvtownie to fuck with us. We want the big scum to crossfire. One of the scumteams is deliberately shooting townreads IMO.

[Titus]

Now, Shadowcat what things did 3dice do that are scum tells for you?

[3dicerolling]

Vote: ObsessedWithCats

Regardless of what happens, I gotta start learning about fire and ice mafia at one point.

[Titus]

Mala, you should probably type out those gut feelings pretty quick here as d3 just hammered right when you were about to start talking.