Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[Boonskiies]

So, Drixxy, ++--, and I = the rest of town.

[Drixx]

That's something I need to work on, by the way. Not doing it on purpose, haha. ^

Meta discussion aimed mostly at Boonskiies. Tangential to the game at hand

In my experience, any mafia player who makes it past the first few games (which are generally confusing, and frequently result in the new player feeling attacked when their mistakes are attacked) develops a meta. The faster you develop a consistent game, the better, because you then don't give it away when you get a PR or get assigned a scum role. The problem with pointing to your established meta of reading as scum is that it doesn't really speak to the case against you at all. You made a claim to being far better than you appear, which suggests you have intentionally cultivated this meta.

My sense of it is that if you are as good as you made claim to earlier, then your meta makes you a significant attribute to the town, where statistically you will play most of your games. The problem (for the rest of us) is that if you are very consistent in that meta, you can point to it when you are scum and use it as a way to basically invalidate any case against you.

There were a few things I was looking for in your responses that would have caused me to completely re-evaluate you. You have done none of them. I'm now 99% certain you are scum and if the other two townies are paying attention today, they saw what I saw and have figured out who your partner is. I understand why you are playing the way you are. Over the long run you are going to win a lot of games by being consistent. The best advice I can offer from years of playing with very good people is to develop a few different styles and do as much as you can to make it seem random which one you use. Heck ... use a randomizer and make it truly random.

The main point

There's still quite a lot of this day phase if you want to break your meta and give your reasons for the things that are making you look super bad. As a matter of ethics and simple courtesy, generally claims of RL busy times are not ever questioned, so your drop off in activity need not be explained further. What does need explaining is this:

1.) You came into the game hard core white knighting EW, then flipped against him. The most generous description of your flip would be that you sheeped. You have several posts near the end of the 2nd day phase that appear to be trying to score townie points, most especially right at the end.
2.) Your absolute refusal to put together an actual case against Singer. Go look at your earlier posts where you are basically calling the rest of us stupid for missing how she has manipulated the game. You had to be basing that on the game thread, so why do you refuse to do a multi-quote and show us what you were talking about?

Ok, I agree with your first paragraph. I didn't really have time to think stuff through so I basically wrote down whatever came to my mind, normally I don't do such fallacies. Your second paragraph, however, doesn't really make sense since obviously enough, not everyone has free time always, also, I never said I'll be completely inactive, I said I'll be *less* active (or at least that's what I intended to say). This "pretty obvious" still isn't really obvious to me, I'll reread it again and try to convince me that it is indeed pretty obvious. Also, trying to figure out how scum might play is basically the way you called "Logical", so it isn't logical (pun intended) for you to say that my approach was wrong. Again, it might have included fallacies (basically everything I posted D3 was written in a hurry), but you basically admitted that this approach is working, unless I really misunderstood your post. Also, I'm not really understanding how you reached to the conclusion of my post being really townie if basically you criticised everything about it, and my post before that, in fact, resulted in you somewhat FoSing me. And finally, just like singer, I'd like to disagree with the all 4 people need to agree approach. I'm not saying that if only 3 people agree, it's better, but it can make it lynchworthy, though.

The stalling that I referenced was that you said you would do a neutral POV re-read on Friday or Saturday, which pushes any case you might make against someone else or defense you might make of Boonskiies (or agreement you might come to) back a few days (from the time of that post). The days are much longer here than I am used to, so I suspect I'm the only one who viewed it as a stall. Nobody else seemed to complain that I saw anyway.

The difference between madness and logic when it comes to trying to identify scum motive is when and why you're speculating. Just speculating without any examination of a player's posts and behavior in the game is basically useless. You can come up with an endless stream of possible reasons scum might do something, and the actual motive may or may not ever occur to you. If you have found an inconsistency or a slip and you are evaluating someone, trying to motivate that inconsistency or slip has a purpose and should usually be bounded. Generally far fewer motivations make sense for a slip or inconsistency than do if you begin by speculating reasons and then trying to find someone to fit your speculation. It's like the difference between examining evidence and letting it lead you to a conclusion and starting with a conclusion and trying to make the evidence fit the conclusion you chose.

And that is why your post gave me a town read on you. You had logical fallacies and an obviously flawed process on display throughout the post. When I read that post assuming you are scum, it doesn't make sense. Scum has the advantage in a 2v3 LYLO and have no need to make posts like that.

As for 3 vs. 4 agreeing, the difference is this: With 3 people agreeing it's possible that what you see is 2 scum and just 1 townie (33.3%). If four agree, then you have either 66.7% of the town or 100% of the town in agreement, and while that isn't foolproof ... it's certainly considerably better when the whole game rests on getting it right.

[toolenduso]

Vote Count 3.02

Hostile Intent (0):
Drixx (0):
++-- (0):
singersigner (0):
Boonskiies (0):

Not voting (5): Hostile Intent, Drixx, ++--, singersigner, Boonskiies

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is at 7:13 a.m. Pacific time, Jan. 24.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-24 07:13:00)

[singersigner]

I'm game to lynch Boonskiies. His flip flop on my slot is terri-bad. Like he was ignoring my play yesterday so he'd have me here for the win. And that fake ass town-slip vote today? I don't see that coming from town.

Nine days, guys. Let's kiss the bride.

How can it be a fake TOWN-SLIP, if it doesn't come from town? Like...how do you tell it was fake, and what makes it look like a town-slip?

Something to keep in mind that mass-claiming today is also not really necessary since scum will know how to claim. If they don't have a roleblocker, they know there's no doc, and could just claim doc for the win anyway. If they DO have a roleblocker, then it's possible they counterclaim anyway and fight it out.

So, I guess claim of you're at L-1 as per usual and hope it's legit?

But yeah, that's why there's not really any point.

Also, I read through everything but ironically enough I ended up doing so on my phone anyway since irl plans changed today. I think it'll be easier to parse through without the stream of consciousness, but it's giving me more town reads on Drixx and ++-- because they're not afraid to hold back their thoughts. Especially when ++-- points out that he has reasons to doubt my scum reads because the reasons for my town read on him is essentially PoE (process of elimination). It shows careful reservation and analyzation of my motivations that town should constantly be questioning of anyone.

It's making me uncomfortable that HI is now on board to lynch Boon. It's playing into the whole "if four people agree to lynch someone, someone's bussing." But what incentive does he have to bus right now? Why not try to exploit someone else with the reservations that have already been made public?

[Hostile Intent]

Mayhaps that's the wrong word, but his vote when the thread opened followed by the post right after it looks forced. Like we were supposed to read that as a town slip.

[Boonskiies]

If for some reason, I was mod confirmed town, who would you think is scum, Drixx?

[Drixx]

If for some reason, I was mod confirmed town, who would you think is scum, Drixx?

Really? You would like me to give you an alternate wagon to try and push based upon an impossible hypothetical? This just keeps getting weirder and weirder on your part.

Please note post #901, Paragraph 3, Sentence 3 before you suggest that I've not been looking for your partner.

[Boonskiies]

No, not 'my partner', two alternatives. Because when I flip town, and we lose the game, let's just see how correct you were on the alternate. I've lost a lot of interest in this game, also.

[Boonskiies]

I really can't say anything, so just have to let you make a final decision.

[++--]

Just a short note: I have started rereading, but it's quite a lot of work and I don't really have more time today, so I'll publish my new readlist tomorrow.

[singersigner]

No, not 'my partner', two alternatives. Because when I flip town, and we lose the game, let's just see how correct you were on the alternate. I've lost a lot of interest in this game, also.

Why have you lost interest in this game? You were so confident it was in the bag for you and now that it's pretty obvious things aren't going your way, you're all of a sudden not motivated? Please.

[Hostile Intent]

VOTE: Boonskiies

This is the way to go today.

[++--]

(Strange stream of probably incomprehensible thoughts incoming.) Also, to be honest, I absolutely couldn't get myself to read walls of texts, so if I encountered those, I just randomly read into them, so my new read on Drixx might be the most inaccurate.

Holy shit, my memory apparently is absolutely wrong as a HI-Drixx team is basically absolutely unlikely, as HI was one of the main proponents of a lynch on Drixx D1. That is, basically, my entire theory is invalid. Also, one of the major scumtells, namely, the "I hate this IDGAF" can be seen from both HI and Boon, which makes decision harder. Also, in retrospect, Jason (Boon's predecessor) was more opportunistic than what I remembered. However, both Drixx and singer FOSed him Boon early at LYLO, while HI has just started a lynch on him, which makes it (FMPOV) that if Boon is indeed maf, there is some sort of a bussing going on, most probably with HI. The N1 kill isn't particularly helpful in the case as he didn't really have any updated reads, however, had a hint even after his readlist that Drixx might be scum (even though wrong about copper) - #483, also, scumreading Drixx's slot, so, if anything, Drixx gets scumpoints for this. Apart from this, the most probable reason is that mafia thought Cabd is a PR (which is true), since noone in this game seems to have killed the IC for being the IC. HI's posts are quite useless and short, but numerous, except when the copper-Drixx debate was ongoing. At the same time though, HI and Drixx voted together on copper... Also, Drixx made a case against basically everyone quite early on in the game, just as if he was testing the willingness to lynch certain people. Also, had inconsistencies within a short amount of time for example, his read on me in #622), but at the same time, is consistent even in minor details throughout the game (for example, one thing I particularly noticed is he has said the exact same way of him scumhunting in #256 as quite recently). Around the Drixx-copper debate, Jason was entirely inactive, singer basically pointing out minor things, and HI continued to do the cryptic posts. Nearly right after I asked Jason about whether shouldn't he replace it, he did so, I'm not really sure what to think about that. At the same time, though, his reasoning he added didn't really seem particularly convincing, so maybe a some scumpoints for it? Boon's #711 readlist changed very fast, after only a really small amount of interaction. I don't get what Boon meant to do with #736 - I don't really see the use of it from a town perspecitve, but would someone fake-townslip that hard? singer's #740 contained a LAMIST, which has already occured quite a few times (even in the beginning there was something like an 'I'm pretty townie' or something, I'm too lazy to look back for number). #752, HI states that Boon is town with high certainity, however, now, HI started a lynch on Boon.Even #811 has Boon as definite townie. By #824, Boon flipped reads on Ew... I'm wondering though what this whole replacement thing was by HI... A thing, that makes a Boon-HI team less likely though is that their playstyle is VERY similar...

TL;DR right now, I'm thinking that a Boon-HI team is quite likely, but I'm definitely not anywhere near sure enough to vote.

[Boonskiies]

I am. It's Singer/Hostile. I'm the easiest mislynch toDay, and from my POV, if I don't get hammered by the two remaining scum, it ensures that HI is mafia.

[singersigner]

Oh well I'm not voting yet so there's that.

[singersigner]

If you're so confident where's the vote? Like, this is what I have a problem with. >_>

[Drixx]

I was waiting to see everyone weigh in before I posted. I believe HI slipped earlier (I referenced it in#901) and I posit an HI/Boonskiies partnership. Given the inability to be completely sure, I wanted to see what would happen after HI voted. If he was town, I expect he would have been locked rather quickly. I am as convinced as it is possible to be.

Vote: Boonskiies

[Drixx]

If you're so confident where's the vote? Like, this is what I have a problem with. >_>

EBWoP - I meant to quote this with my previous post. Earlier this day phase, I saw HI make some assumptions that don't make sense from a town PoV. I noted them and marked Boon/HI in my notebook as the probable scum team. I then mentioned that I had seen something to see if anyone would jump on it to try and take advantage. The fact that nobody did reinforced my thinking. Then HI posted the first vote and I waited to see even a 2nd vote go down, and both of you reinforced the town reads. Thus, I believe the actions are all consistent with that pairing.

[singersigner]

This is me posting to confirm that Boon and I would HAVE to be scum partners for me to be scum and not hammer to the win.

Feels good.

[singersigner]

So Boon. What's your plan now that you can't laint me to be scum without admitting your own guilt?

[Hostile Intent]

That's actually pretty failed logic, Drixx.

Bring up an actual case to refute and we can discuss that in depth.

UNVOTE: Boonskiies

[Drixx]

That's actually pretty failed logic, Drixx.

Bring up an actual case to refute and we can discuss that in depth.

UNVOTE: Boonskiies

You don't discuss anything in depth.

[singersigner]

Describe what exactly is wrong with it.

And you taking off yor vote implies you agree I'm basically town at all costs, you know that right? Because the alternative is a confirmed Boon/singer scum team in which case there's no reason so unvote.

I just want you to understand what you're implicating.

[Boonskiies]

This is me posting to confirm that Boon and I would HAVE to be scum partners for me to be scum and not hammer to the win.

Feels good.

I was wrong. :/ And now I'm confused.

[Boonskiies]

Ugh, I really hope the scum team isn't Drixx/++....